THN: Coyotes to Seattle this Summer? UPD: Healy - Jul2 for COG, or it's Seattle

[brewski420]

Not sure why having less supply would increase demand of a product...

Are you kidding?

 

[gstommylee]

It works for the sounders. They capped the seats for MLS games at 40k even tho they are in a NFL stadium.

 

[Acesolid]

Are you kidding?

But he's right!

Having less supply does not increase demand.

It increases the price the customers will be willing to accept (AKA the ''equilibrium price'')! Here's an exemple:

In Nassau, the supply of Islanders Hockey is 17 000 seats. And the demand is 14 000 seats. Let's say this adds up to a low acceptable price for a seat.

However! In Brooklyn, the demand is still 14 000 seats. But the supply is 15 000 seats! This adds up to a much, much higher acceptable price per seat, and the Islanders making a profit!

 

[Beauner]

If an NBA team comes with the Coyotes that might be an overkill of sports. The Sounders are already HUGE there, plus they have the Seahawks and Mariners. Adding and NBA team on top of that? Seems like way too many teams.

 

[gstommylee]

If an NBA team comes with the Coyotes that might be an overkill of sports. The Sounders are already HUGE there, plus they have the Seahawks and Mariners. Adding and NBA team on top of that? Seems like way too many teams.

We can support 5 pro teams. Remember look outside the seattle metro area. Not all of seattle sport fans live in the seattle metro area.

 

[superdeluxe]

If an NBA team comes with the Coyotes that might be an overkill of sports. The Sounders are already HUGE there, plus they have the Seahawks and Mariners. Adding and NBA team on top of that? Seems like way too many teams.

Different demo of fans. Many sounder fans are not necessarily sports fans.

 

[PCSPounder]

it's not uncle Gary's kool-aid. It's the complete opposite of uncle Gary's kool-aid.

When the owners decided to move from a pure free-market system to a revenue-linked system, it was ostensibly to improve competitive balance. What it really was is a way to drive salary costs down for the franchises that couldnt control the balance between business and competition on the ice. The resulting system they came up with puts great strains on middle and bottom revenue teams by forcing them to spend more than they would on players in a free-market system. The rise of the canadian dollar that made TML, MTL, and VAN revenues skyrocket exacerbated this problem.

When atlanta moved to winnipeg, lets say we turned a 60M (pre-revenue sharing) revenue team into a 110M revenue team. That made player costs go up by 28.5M, distributed across the league causing EVERYONE'S profits to drop by ~1M. In certain markets, it was possible to outgrow this problem, but the league's structure relies on some insane notion that the markets at the bottom are going to grow revenues at a faster rate than the markets at the top, meaning what really happened was that Toronto, MTL, NYR et al were fine, and everyone else got screwed.

As any frequenter of the BoH board may well know, i have vehemently argued that the problem with this league under it's current structure is not the sunbelt teams, not the small-market american teams, nor is it the small-market canadian teams like Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, and Winnipeg. The real problem with this league is New York. Toronto. Montreal. Vancouver. If we just contracted those four teams, we'd be looking at a healthy business model where everyone can make a profit.

I don't think there's a system that can curtail the influence of major markets when everyone gives a damn. The caveat: the NFL's smaller markets are more rabid than the larger ones, save Chicago, even if the Giants get more SBs than the norm.

 

[Beauner]

Different demo of fans. Many sounder fans are not necessarily sports fans.

That...doesn't really make sense to me.

We can support 5 pro teams. Remember look outside the seattle metro area. Not all of seattle sport fans live in the seattle metro area.

You are right. Tacoma is nearby as well as other population centers. For some reason I thought the metro area had less people than it actually did.

 

[gstommylee]

That...doesn't really make sense to me.



You are right. Tacoma is nearby as well as other population centers. For some reason I thought the metro area had less people than it actually did.

He means that Some people that are sounder fans may not be fans of seahawks, mariners and huskies and what not and those that are seahawk fans may not be fans of sounders or mariners etc.

Seattle is pro sport team for 4-5 states. Alaska, washington, orgeon, idaho and western montana. And people will fly to see games in seattle.

 

[brewski420]

But he's right!

Having less supply does not increase demand.

It increases the price the customers will be willing to accept (AKA the ''equilibrium price'')! Here's an exemple:

In Nassau, the supply of Islanders Hockey is 17 000 seats. And the demand is 14 000 seats. Let's say this adds up to a low acceptable price for a seat.

However! In Brooklyn, the demand is still 14 000 seats. But the supply is 15 000 seats! This adds up to a much, much higher acceptable price per seat, and the Islanders making a profit!

Hence same argument for the Key. I contend demand will be much higher than 11, 000 IMO thus allowing for the higher price point which was the real point. Should say less supply leads to higher prices due to higher demand.

So he was right but I believe the point he was responding to was more about higher prices to make up for lower supply. I was thinking about it in those terms so I was wrong.

 

[danishh]

I don't think out of town fans have a huge effect on gates except in the nfl. The key for seattle is a great rsn contract due to that massive footprint you mentioned as well as the fact that it can help raise national TV ratings in the USA.

 

[PCSPounder]

I think Las Vegas would do better than Phoenix not that I think it is a prime location or anything but almost 40 million people visit Vegas each year with a lot of Billionaires/millionaires living there. If they could build an arena close to the strip it "could" survive.

No no no no no no no no.

If the visitors go to hockey games, they're not at the slot games. No matter how much city officials are pushing an arena (and that's not nearly as true as it used to be), the casinos will do everything and more in their power to undermine the city (or cities). Most of the proposals for arenas there have been either vaporware or pie-in-the-sky hilariousness.

You need the locals to go to games. You need a more diverse industrial base than Vegas has at the moment. If Zappos can do what they're seeking and promising to do, that's a big step. However, when the labor force is mostly working at game time, this is one very bad bet. For now.

BTW, Thomas & Mack did host the IHL LV Thunder, and by my understand, the arena configuration is better than Key Arena, but probably not as good as downtown Phoenix. I didn't go suite-counting in my visit to T&M, so eh... but let's also understand that UNLV basketball wants the prime dates. Good luck with that.

Just three of many sets of reasons Vegas is a VERY bad idea.

 

[gstommylee]

I don't think out of town fans have a huge effect on gates except in the nfl. The key for seattle is a great rsn contract due to that massive footprint you mentioned as well as the fact that it can help raise national TV ratings in the USA.

I think people will travel to see NHL hockey especially from Portland area.

 

[danishh]

I think people will travel to see NHL hockey especially from Portland area.

it's not a significant enough population.

60-70% will be STH. While there are anecdotal stories of STH's travelling (most obvious being Buffalo fans in the Niagara region of southern ontario), seattle's not THAT close to the vancouver or portland metros. NHL is a league where 2/3rds of the games are on worknight's at 7:30PM. Significant numbers of people arnt coming from portland or vancouver 2/3 worknight's a week or 30 times a year.

For the remainder, again, people will come for those friday night, saturday night, or sunday afternoon games, but you're talking about a small proportion of the gate.


FYI: this is the reason why it's completely idiotic when fans of small cities wanting a NHL/NBA/MLB team start talking about how it works for green bay. Green Bay can succeed because 8 sunday afternoon's a year is not hard to do for people travelling 2hours or 3 hours for a game. 30 weeknights on the other hand is entirely impractical for the vast majority of the fanbase... they'll still be fans of that team, but their value will be in TV ratings.

 

[PCSPounder]

Perhaps that's because those waiting for a team in Quebec have heard repeatedly that to get a team, the city had to jump through a certain number of hoops. Then, those hoops are entirely absent from the Seattle discussion, and Quebec's fans are supposed to think that's a normal conclusion to the last 4 years of information they've received?


Seattle doesn't have a suitable temporary facility, they haven't broken ground on a new arena, and although this could change in a hurry, they currently have no owner. It makes little sense for Hanson to start off his project by losing money on an NHL franchise for 3 years waiting for the new arena to open, all the while hoping without guarantee that the true anchor of his megaproject, the Sonics, will return to Seattle shortly.

Let's just say this: no market has the same hoops to jump through as another market. Never convince yourself otherwise.

Quebec is expected to pay through the nose at the gate. The question is whether Seattle can bring TV eyeballs to bear.

 

[gstommylee]

it's not a significant enough population.

60-70% will be STH. While there are anecdotal stories of STH's travelling (most obvious being Buffalo fans in the Niagara region of southern ontario), seattle's not THAT close to the vancouver or portland metros. NHL is a league where 2/3rds of the games are on worknight's at 7:30PM. Significant numbers of people arnt coming from portland or vancouver 2/3 worknight's a week or 30 times a year.

For the remainder, again, people will come for those friday night, saturday night, or sunday afternoon games, but you're talking about a small proportion of the gate.

Seattle is 2 hours from vancover and about and 2 1/2 or so to Portland. Portland would have to travel into california or van BC just to see hockey.

 

[Acesolid]

Hence same argument for the Key. I contend demand will be much higher than 11, 000 IMO thus allowing for the higher price point which was the real point. Should say less supply leads to higher prices due to higher demand.

So he was right but I believe the point he was responding to was more about higher prices to make up for lower supply. I was thinking about it in those terms so I was wrong.

Not necessarely. I think 11 000 is far from enough to break even if the prices aren't ridiculously high.

But maybe you are right, maybe the people of Seattle are really rich, and there is enough demand for hockey to fill the arena at ridiculous prices.

We'll see!

 

[gstommylee]

Not necessarely. I think 11 000 is far from enough to break even if the prices aren't ridiculously high.

But maybe you are right, maybe the people of Seattle are really rich, and there is enough demand for hockey to fill the arena at ridiculous prices.

We'll see!

Remember we never had NHL before so its hard to know rather or not the demand is there for high prices.

 

[Melrose Munch]

danishh:

This is some dirty politics regarding QC City. I guess the language thing, American media and market size was a big deal. Remeber the NHL had no options when it came to Wpg, I bet today if Paul allen had called Portland Pirates NHL would be going to their 4th season.

 

[snovalleyhockeyfan]

I think people will travel to see NHL hockey especially from Portland area.

And Vancouver, B.C., don't forget them. And for weekend games and games against "big draw" teams (re: Bruins/Rangers/Red Wings/Penguins/Blackhawks) you'll probably have fans in from Spokane, the Tri-Cities (Richland/Pasco/Kennewick) and hell, even Anchorage (it's a straight flight down on Alaska Airlines).

Yes, you'll need a strong local ticket base, but I could see an NHL team have a similar fan draw pattern to that of the Mariners.

 

[Acesolid]

Remember we never had NHL before so its hard to know rather or not the demand is there for high prices.

Exactly! Altrough, I hope the Seattle group did a proper market study to see what prices would be acceptable. And to see if there is a demand for hockey in Seattle. And to see what part of the population to target in the marketing drive to sell these tickets (something very important considering the competition in the Sports market in Seattle).

Otherwise the odds are very high it'll end up like the Coyotes.

 

[CorbeauNoir]

That...doesn't really make sense to me.

A lot of sounders fans only go to games because it gives them hipster cred.

 

[brewski420]

Not necessarely. I think 11 000 is far from enough to break even if the prices aren't ridiculously high.

But maybe you are right, maybe the people of Seattle are really rich, and there is enough demand for hockey to fill the arena at ridiculous prices.

We'll see!

Remember we never had NHL before so its hard to know rather or not the demand is there for high prices.

I think a big thing going will be the corporate part of the equation. There is a lot of big corporate dollars in the area that will drive that up a bit. It would/will be interesting to see how they can make the Key work for a couple years.

 

[gstommylee]

Exactly! Altrough, I hope the Seattle group did a proper market study to see what prices would be acceptable. And to see if there is a demand for hockey in Seattle. And to see what part of the population to target in the marketing drive to sell these tickets (something very important considering the competition in the Sports market in Seattle).

Otherwise the odds are very high it'll end up like the Coyotes.

Do not compare coyotes with Seattle. Seattle is in a better location than coyotes are in.

 

[le_sean]

it's not a significant enough population.

60-70% will be STH. While there are anecdotal stories of STH's travelling (most obvious being Buffalo fans in the Niagara region of southern ontario), seattle's not THAT close to the vancouver or portland metros. NHL is a league where 2/3rds of the games are on worknight's at 7:30PM. Significant numbers of people arnt coming from portland or vancouver 2/3 worknight's a week or 30 times a year.

For the remainder, again, people will come for those friday night, saturday night, or sunday afternoon games, but you're talking about a small proportion of the gate.


FYI: this is the reason why it's completely idiotic when fans of small cities wanting a NHL/NBA/MLB team start talking about how it works for green bay. Green Bay can succeed because 8 sunday afternoon's a year is not hard to do for people travelling 2hours or 3 hours for a game. 30 weeknights on the other hand is entirely impractical for the vast majority of the fanbase... they'll still be fans of that team, but their value will be in TV ratings.

The Seattle metropolitan population is ranked 15th in the US. This makes it higher than St Louis, Denver, Pittsburgh, Columbus, San Jose, Nashville and Raleigh. I don't see a problem at all. Plus Saturday/Sunday games will draw people from Portland.