This team is going to be scary good offensively

[Brunomics]

Ok before I get everyone all in a tizzy. Let's just break down what I expect the lines to be next year:

Nelson-Tavares-Okposo
Kulemin-Grabovski-Strome
Bailey-Nielsen-Grabner
Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck
Lee


Now looking at those lines. This team legitimately has a 2A and 2B when it comes to their 2nd and 3rd lines. On top of that you great depth in the following areas

1)180-200 points potentially from their top 3 centers. What other teams in the league have that kind of depth? The kings?
2)Okposo's coming out party this past year. No reason not to expect more of the same
3)Progression of Strome/Nelson/Lee. My bet is that Matt Martin(unless he becomes useful again) is pushed off the fourth line barring a trade making this team offensively more dangerous.
4)Kulemin/Grabovski. It was obvious that Kuli wasn't used to his potential last year. Not saying he'll pot 30 but he's much better stat wise than 8 goals.

This has become a team where the JT line usually had to carry the freight offensively. Now if that line is struggling other lines can pick up the slack as well as add on to it. When they get rolling they are going to be very hard to stop.

With that saying even if they make a trade for a dman they can slot Lee in and it really shouldn't change the story too much.

They are going to be a treat to watch next year!

Click to read more...

 

[seafoam]

I said it before, the difference between a Kulemin-Grabovski-Strome line and a Grabner-Nielsen-Bailey line is practically nothing.

Two defensively repsonsible centers with career highs of 58 points, two struggling wingers who scored 30 goals in the 2010-2011 season (but still bring positive elements if they are not scoring), and two guys who could score anywhere from 30-50 points.

These two lines will be battling for ice time behind the top line night in and night out, which should do a lot for our secondary scoring. Do not be surprised if our fourth line has another great year, defenses are going to have their hands full with those the top three lines and the fourth line will just wear them down.

 

[Felix Unger]

The thing I like the most is that if someone gets injured, the lineup can shift around to cover without a lot of loss. That's completely new.

If only I could say the same about the D.

 

[Moosie]

I want to believe, but recent history gets in the way.

 

[seafoam]

Also, the Ducks were the highest scoring team last year. Their top three centers (Getzlaf, Perrault, Bonino) notched a total of 179 points, although Koivu also has 29.

If we get 180 points from our top three centers (~90 Tavares, ~45 Grabovski/Nielsen), we will be seeing playoffs. I would be shocked if we didn't.

 

[scott99]

I said it before, the difference between a Kulemin-Grabovski-Strome line and a Grabner-Nielsen-Bailey line is practically nothing.

Two defensively repsonsible centers with career highs of 58 points, two struggling wingers who scored 30 goals in the 2010-2011 season (but still bring positive elements if they are not scoring), and two guys who could score anywhere from 30-50 points.

These two lines will be battling for ice time behind the top line night in and night out, which should do a lot for our secondary scoring. Do not be surprised if our fourth line has another great year, defenses are going to have their hands full with those the top three lines and the fourth line will just wear them down.

I have to agree with this. I think the Nielsen line scores even MORE, if Lee is on that line instead of Bailey. A Lee-Nielsen-Grabner line could be dynamite. Creative speedy, defensively aware center, a speed demon winger who averages 25 goals per 82 games played (Grabner), and a monster who's tough to get out of the crease, who also has a goal scorer's touch.

I wish they would trade Bailey for defensive help.

 

[blitzkriegs]

Ok before I get everyone all in a tizzy. Let's just break down what I expect the lines to be next year:

Nelson-Tavares-Okposo
Kulemin-Grabovski-Strome
Bailey-Nielsen-Grabner
Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck
Lee


Now looking at those lines. This team legitimately has a 2A and 2B when it comes to their 2nd and 3rd lines. On top of that you great depth in the following areas

1)180-200 points potentially from their top 3 centers. What other teams in the league have that kind of depth? The kings?
2)Okposo's coming out party this past year. No reason not to expect more of the same
3)Progression of Strome/Nelson/Lee. My bet is that Matt Martin(unless he becomes useful again) is pushed off the fourth line barring a trade making this team offensively more dangerous.
4)Kulemin/Grabovski. It was obvious that Kuli wasn't used to his potential last year. Not saying he'll pot 30 but he's much better stat wise than 8 goals.

This has become a team where the JT line usually had to carry the freight offensively. Now if that line is struggling other lines can pick up the slack as well as add on to it. When they get rolling they are going to be very hard to stop.

With that saying even if they make a trade for a dman they can slot Lee in and it really shouldn't change the story too much.

They are going to be a treat to watch next year!

The Isles now have better two-way and/or defensively responsible players than before. That alone should help the D and G. However, the D is still a wild card.

 

[seafoam]

I have to agree with this. I think the Nielsen line scores even MORE, if Lee is on that line instead of Bailey. A Lee-Nielsen-Grabner line could be dynamite. Creative speedy, defensively aware center, a speed demon winger who averages 25 goals per 82 games played (Grabner), and a monster who's tough to get out of the crease, who also has a goal scorer's touch.

I wish they would trade Bailey for defensive help.

Don't forget that Lee-Nielsen-Bailey worked well at the end of the season, so if Grabner ends up being the one on the move for a defenseman, I won't be upset.

Obviously, I would prefer to keep Grabner, but if meant getting a defenseman who could improve the team, I'm all for it.

I've been really bored (who hasn't), so I've been watching Isles-Pens playoff series highlights and Grabner really elevated his game in that series, it would be tough to lose him.

 

[TheBusiness]

I'd have the Isles pegged as a middle of the road scoring team.

 

[13th Floor]

I'd have the Isles pegged as a middle of the road scoring team.

Any reasoning? They were 16th last year and have added talent, and are young (so one could argue they are improving).

They were 8th the year before that.

 

[Bones45]

well it's certainly more fun to lose 6-5 than 4-0.

 

[Cavonnier]

I have to agree with this. I think the Nielsen line scores even MORE, if Lee is on that line instead of Bailey. A Lee-Nielsen-Grabner line could be dynamite. Creative speedy, defensively aware center, a speed demon winger who averages 25 goals per 82 games played (Grabner), and a monster who's tough to get out of the crease, who also has a goal scorer's touch.

I wish they would trade Bailey for defensive help.

I compiled Corsi WOWY (with you/without you) numbers for all of our forwards. I have to offer the "small sample" caution, but Lee and Nielsen were dynamite together. I'm hoping Lee makes the team and is on Nielsen's line. Intuitively, it makes sense Nielsen and Lee are good together. Lee is a big net presence who offsets Nielsen's lack of size. Nielsen is a perimeter player who is defensively sound, allowing Lee to crash the net.

I also want to note that Martin and Clutterbuck's Corsi numbers were together when they were on the ice together. Too much hitting, not enough skill.

If I can find the WOWY numbers, I'm going to post them in the advanced stats thread.

 

[13th Floor]

I compiled Corsi WOWY (with you/without you) numbers for all of our forwards. I have to offer the "small sample" caution, but Lee and Nielsen were dynamite together. I'm hoping Lee makes the team and is on Nielsen's line. Intuitively, it makes sense Nielsen and Lee are good together. Lee is a big net presence who offsets Nielsen's lack of size. Nielsen is a perimeter player who is defensively sound, allowing Lee to crash the net.

I also want to note that Martin and Clutterbuck's Corsi numbers were together when they were on the ice together. Too much hitting, not enough skill.

If I can find the WOWY numbers, I'm going to post them in the advanced stats thread.

Would you happen to have those numbers for Nielsen and everybody? I'd be interested to see who ISN'T better with Nielsen than without him. He is the easiest player to play with and it's part of what makes him so valuable.

 

[beach]

I have to agree with this. I think the Nielsen line scores even MORE, if Lee is on that line instead of Bailey. A Lee-Nielsen-Grabner line could be dynamite. Creative speedy, defensively aware center, a speed demon winger who averages 25 goals per 82 games played (Grabner), and a monster who's tough to get out of the crease, who also has a goal scorer's touch.

I wish they would trade Bailey for defensive help.

I don't think Bailey makes it to opening day with the Islanders.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Would you happen to have those numbers for Nielsen and everybody? I'd be interested to see who ISN'T better with Nielsen than without him. He is the easiest player to play with and it's part of what makes him so valuable.

stats.hockeyanalysis.com

That is probably the easiest way to view it.

 

[13th Floor]

stats.hockeyanalysis.com

That is probably the easiest way to view it.

Gracias, sir.

 

[Fan101]

Although a solid vet defense woud be great hopefully a stable healthy defense. Shed the injury prone baggage ad players with poor training regiments.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

Being offensively scary is worthless it you are defensively awful. That needs to be the number one improvement.

 

[Cavonnier]

stats.hockeyanalysis.com

That is probably the easiest way to view it.

Thanks for taking care of that...I was having a heck of a time trying to copy and paste the numbers onto this message board.

 

[startainfection*]

Ok before I get everyone all in a tizzy. Let's just break down what I expect the lines to be next year:

Nelson-Tavares-Okposo
Kulemin-Grabovski-Strome
Bailey-Nielsen-Grabner
Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck
Lee


Now looking at those lines. This team legitimately has a 2A and 2B when it comes to their 2nd and 3rd lines. On top of that you great depth in the following areas

1)180-200 points potentially from their top 3 centers. What other teams in the league have that kind of depth? The kings?
2)Okposo's coming out party this past year. No reason not to expect more of the same
3)Progression of Strome/Nelson/Lee. My bet is that Matt Martin(unless he becomes useful again) is pushed off the fourth line barring a trade making this team offensively more dangerous.
4)Kulemin/Grabovski. It was obvious that Kuli wasn't used to his potential last year. Not saying he'll pot 30 but he's much better stat wise than 8 goals.

This has become a team where the JT line usually had to carry the freight offensively. Now if that line is struggling other lines can pick up the slack as well as add on to it. When they get rolling they are going to be very hard to stop.

With that saying even if they make a trade for a dman they can slot Lee in and it really shouldn't change the story too much.

They are going to be a treat to watch next year!

I'm more excited for our d in 2 years, it's going to be right there with the black hawks, kings, and rangers

 

[scott99]

I don't think Bailey makes it to opening day with the Islanders.

From your mouth to God's ears.

 

[beLIeveintheISLES]

Being offensively scary is worthless it you are defensively awful. That needs to be the number one improvement.

I don't think our defense is awful after the subtractions of AMac and (hopefully) Strait. I'm just getting into advanced stats myself and it looks like our defensemen really aren't that bad. For example Hamonic, who had a "down" year wasn't amazing possession wise but without AMac, his numbers were good and with de Haan they were a strong pairing. Visnovsky, as long as he is healthy, is a very good defenseman and when paired with Hickey that is a great pairing. Donovan showed a lot of potential particularly in his second stint with the team, and while he did get more O-Zone starts then D-Zone starts, he put up magnificent possession numbers.The rookies, such as Reinhart, are still unknowns but Griff should add size to the defense without sacrificing any skill, because from everything I have read he has incredible hockey sense! I would feel more comfortable with a veteran defenseman being added but I don't think it's needed, although I guess we'll really only truly know when the season begins.

Halak, and Johnson, will also help our defense a ton! I have links to Twitter that have graphs showing goaltenders save percentage from in front of the net, bad angles and their usage charts. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post them (this is my first ever post so I don't know all of the rules on the board) but if I can and if you want to see them please let me know and I'd be happy to.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

I don't think our defense is awful after the subtractions of AMac and (hopefully) Strait. I'm just getting into advanced stats myself and it looks like our defensemen really aren't that bad. For example Hamonic, who had a "down" year wasn't amazing possession wise but without AMac, his numbers were good and with de Haan they were a strong pairing. Visnovsky, as long as he is healthy, is a very good defenseman and when paired with Hickey that is a great pairing. Donovan showed a lot of potential particularly in his second stint with the team, and while he did get more O-Zone starts then D-Zone starts, he put up magnificent possession numbers.The rookies, such as Reinhart, are still unknowns but Griff should add size to the defense without sacrificing any skill, because from everything I have read he has incredible hockey sense! I would feel more comfortable with a veteran defenseman being added but I don't think it's needed, although I guess we'll really only truly know when the season begins.

Halak, and Johnson, will also help our defense a ton! I have links to Twitter that have graphs showing goaltenders save percentage from in front of the net, bad angles and their usage charts. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post them (this is my first ever post so I don't know all of the rules on the board) but if I can and if you want to see them please let me know and I'd be happy to.

Please post any information you have. Also, we have a Corsi and Advanced Stats thread down there somewhere which you might find useful.

If you have any questions about "fancystats" and how to use them feel free to ask!

 

[beLIeveintheISLES]

Please post any information you have. Also, we have a Corsi and Advanced Stats thread down there somewhere which you might find useful.

If you have any questions about "fancystats" and how to use them feel free to ask!

Thanks!

Here are the posts. They're from twitter. This first one is a goalie usage chart:
https://twitter.com/robvollmannhl/status/496699285396660224

The bigger the circle, the better and the darker the grey, the better.

This second one is the save percentage by location and has save percentage from bad angles as well.
https://twitter.com/robvollmanNHL/status/497891484125777920

I know a common concern is "shot quality" (and I've been reading and seeing that for the most part, this doesn't seem to be a real thing) and how one of the knocks on our defense is they may not allow many shots but the shots are higher scoring chances, and this graph shows Halak is the 6th best goaltender from the home-plate/front of the net!

 

[KrisBeKreame]

well it's certainly more fun to lose 6-5 than 4-0.

I dont see why they would be giving up more goals that last year. If anything I see more one goal games that blow-outs

I don't think Bailey makes it to opening day with the Islanders.

Bailey has a better shot at the opening day roster than Lee and most likely Grabner.