This could be the year.

[Stickpucker]

I just had a frog lick my nipple.

## reverse jinx

 

[the halleJOKEL]

i guess 2016 is ending on a good note for at least one of us

 

[StormCast]

I just had a frog lick my nipple.

Well...probably preferable to a Lizard Lick Toeing.

 

[NotOpie]

i just looked at the schedule and my prediction is we are about to go on a 6 game win streak

aww what the hell

The times. These is them.

We have to win the winnable games....we have to win the unwinnable games....we have to tie a few games.....we have to drink heavily for a long time to get to the end of the season. One of these things will absolutely happen.

NotNostradamos

 

[ChuckW]

I <3 you, Chuck.

Chuck. Please, never stop being Chuck

I don't know but welcome back. Would like to see some other long-timers return.

BAH GAWD. Its Chucks music. Can it be?!?!? IT IS.

caps

chuck is bae

Welcome back Chuck!

If this is the year, they better start making up ground. Right now, they are 9-10 points out of a playoff spot, simply because the Metro division is so strong.

turn down for chuck

I didn't think you guys cared! *sniff*

As for the team we love...who could have predicted they would make a run in 2009? They could make a run this year too. The team is good, all the pieces are there, they just have to put it all together. It could happen. I still believe!

 

[the halleJOKEL]

the main issue is the metro division is ridiculous right now

which i am pretty sure we all predicted when they stuck us in this division a few years back

 

[WhiteTrashAmerican]

Yeah we're not cracking this bogus playoff format

 

[Dishface]

Yeah we're not cracking this bogus playoff format

I think this is the year we will see the 6th or even the 7th place team in the metro having more points than the 3rd place team in the Atlantic, thus missing the playoffs. Watch it be us...

 

[AD Skinner]

I also think this playoff format sucks, but have to believe that one of Washington/Columbus/Philadelphia regresses a little over the course of the season. All three are playing at paces that would win a presidents trophy some years.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I also think this playoff format sucks, but have to believe that one of Washington/Columbus/Philadelphia regresses a little over the course of the season. All three are playing at paces that would win a presidents trophy some years.

CLB is clearly playing much better than last year, but not Philly or WSH.

Philly is currently playing at a 103 point pace for the season, and they ended up last year with 96. Overall, the really aren't playing at a level much higher than last year. And they really stunk early last season and really turned it around the 2nd half.

WSH is playing at a 112 point pace this year, and they ended up last year with 120. They are actually on a worse pace than last season.

CLB for sure. They are on a 120 point pace and last year had 76 points. That said, in order for them to drop to 93 points (a bit arbitrary, but 94 is a typical wild card cut point), they'd have to play at an 80 point pace the rest of the way. I agree they may regress, but unless injuries hit, I can't see them regressing to basically last year's level of play for the remainder of the season. Their underlying metrics are pretty decent as well.

- They are +31 in GF vs. GA which is 2nd in the entire NHL.
- Their possession stats are in the top half of the NHL as well (not great, but not terrible #13).
- They are 3rd best in the NHL for SV%
- They are #1 in the NHL for PP%.
- They are middle of the NHL (17th) for PK%

If they have major injuries, particularly to their goalie, then yes, they could fall drastically. I do expect them to fall back some, but would be surprised if they miss the playoffs (barring big injuries).

 

[geehaad]

tl;dr: there's a lot of optimism to be gleaned from their performance so far.

It's well known that the Hurricanes have played a very tough schedule in terms of getting difficult road games out of the way, but maybe not as well known how difficult their schedule has been in terms of the quality of their opponents.

Top half of the league:

• #10-Edmonton(L) 3-2 *
• #14-Calgary(W) 4-2 *
• #5-Philadelphia(L) 6-3 *
• #3-NY Rangers(W) 3-2
• #5-Philadelphia(L) 4-3
• #12-Ottawa(L) 2-1 OT *
  -- Nov 9 --
• #9-Anaheim(L) 4-2
• #7-Washington(W) 5-1
• #15-San Jose(W) 1-0
• #1-Montreal(W) 3-2
• #1-Montreal(L) 2-1 *
• #12-Ottawa(L) 2-1 *
• #3-NY Rangers(L) 3-2 *
• #13-Boston(L) 2-1 SO *
• #3-NY Rangers(L) 4-2 *
• #9-Anaheim(L) 6-5 SO *
• #15-San Jose(L) 4-3 *

All games (17): 5-9-3 = 13 points
Home games (6): 4-2-0 = 8 points
*Away games (11): 1-7-3 = 5 points​

Bottom half of the league:

• #21-Winnipeg(L) 5-4 OT *
• #28-Vancouver(L) 4-3 OT *
• #20-Detroit(L) 4-2 *
• #22-Nashville(W) 3-2 SO *
• #17-New Jersey(L) 4-1
• #17-New Jersey(L) 3-2 SO *
  -- Nov 9 --
• #21-Winnipeg(W) 3-1
• #25-Toronto(W) 2-1 *
• #19-Florida(W) 3-2
• #18-Tampa Bay(W) 1-0 OT
• #16-Los Angeles(W) 3-1 *

All games (11): 6-2-3 = 15 points
Home games (4): 3-1-0 = 6 points
*Away games (7): 3-1-3 = 9 points​

Since Nov 9 (to illustrate how tough the schedule has been):
Top-half (11): 3-6-2 = 8 points (0-3-2 without Staal)
Bottom-half (5): 5-0-0 = 10 points

Of their 28 games, only 5 were against a bottom-third team (record: 3-0-2).
(aside: I was shocked to find Tampa at #18)

 

[NotOpie]

To me, the shake up that could come would be in the make up of the teams fighting for the wild card positions. I think it is likely to see a significant drop off from both Boston and Ottawa. While we'll have to still overcome multiple Metro opponents, I'm not sure about the Rangers. That defense remains a dumpster fire. Philly is for real, but we seemingly match up well against the Caps and we play them 3 more times. We play Columbus 4 more times, 3 of those in January in a span of 12 days. We also play Philly 3 more times including the last game of the season.

It seems that we will know where we stand definitively by the end of January where we face 8 division games out of 13. In particular the run from January 10 through the 31st, 7 of those 9 games are against the Metropolitan division. Anything worse than 6-3 or some combination thereof dooms the season for me. With 8 out of 13 at home, January looms large.

While "it gets late early", I don't think we're there yet. But we do have to pick ourselves up and finish December like last year. We've got 9 more games, have gone 2-2-2 so far, and need to beat a couple of the tough teams remaining on this month's schedule (Caps, Pens, Bruins, Hawks). I'm hoping for something like 6-3, but there will likely be some loser points sprinkled in.

Lastly with 14 out of 23 games at home in January and February, if we're close to contention (or, heaven forbid, in contention) for a playoff spot and our home winning tendency continues, the calendar shapes up well for the Canes.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That was classic geehaad. tl:dr and follow it up with a tl:dr post of your own. Love it (and I'm sure you did that on purpose).

I "think" the net of your post is: 1) they've played a tough schedule 2) they've played a lot on the road

Thus, with Jordan/Lindholm coming back, more games at home, and an the strength of schedule balancing out, their is reason for optimism?

I mostly agree, but of their remaining 54 games, 29 are still against teams in the top 1/2 of the league (and 21 are against teams in the top 1/3). 18 are against teams in the bottom 1/3rd (5 of those are against the NYI). So while the schedule does get a little easier, they will still be facing more top 1/2 teams than bottom 1/2 teams the rest of the way.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

NOTOPIE, to me, it boils down to this. Canes have to play at a 100 point pace from here on out to hit 94 points, which still may not be enough to make the playoffs (what Ottawa and Boston do are kind of irrelevant to the playoff chase since very likely the two wild cards will be metro teams).

Do you think (a) that the Canes have that in them? (b) that other Metro teams will drop off enough so that 94 points gets them in? I like how the Canes have been playing and think they will do better from here on out and won't stop hoping/rooting for it, I just think that's unlikely. Would love to be wrong though.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I have no idea what will happen, but all those games against hard teams will be much easier when they start their backups against us. But really all it takes is a Philly like run or a run like we had at the end of the season the last time we made it. Not easy, but it happens. Philly was where we were before figuring some things out. We do have some things coming in our favor here in the future. And we've seen this team be in damn near every game, even when depleted, playing too much on the road, etc. I doubt we will make it, but you never know. But heck, if we somehow did get to the low to mid 90s and didn't make it, I'd still take the improvement. Of course the tough draft position would suck, but at least it wouldn't be like our high finishes in the past where it was all a bunch of patchwork veterans. At least there is serious upside with this team and its future at that point.

 

[NotOpie]

NOTOPIE, to me, it boils down to this. Canes have to play at a 100 point pace from here on out to hit 94 points, which still may not be enough to make the playoffs (what Ottawa and Boston do are kind of irrelevant to the playoff chase since very likely the two wild cards will be metro teams).

Do you think (a) that the Canes have that in them? (b) that other Metro teams will drop off enough so that 94 points gets them in? I like how the Canes have been playing and think they will do better from here on out and won't stop hoping/rooting for it, I just think that's unlikely. Would love to be wrong though.

So BBA, I think they "could" have it in them. My sense is also that our competition for the playoffs is going to come almost exclusively from the Metro.

My point was that if two current playoff teams from the Atlantic fall off, it allows teams that I feel are underperforming, but have a run in them (Tampa, for example), to get into the playoffs as a top 3 finisher and eliminates them from wildcard consideration. I also think that the Rangers are more lucky than good right now. The fact that the King is proving human is interesting.

Philly is riding a hot Mason more than the Canes are riding a hot Ward. Even so, that defense is giving up a lot of goals...so they may have to score in bunches to keep it up. Could that last....sure, but I'm not sold on them...just like I'm not totally sold on us.

And I think we're just better than New Jersey.

So my sense is the teams that we're really chasing are Columbus and Washington. I think Philly is in the mix for a while but wouldn't be surprised to see them come back to earth. We match up well against the Caps but not so much against Columbus who is just playing fantastic on their side of the blueline.

That's a long-winded way of pulling out the old Dumb and Dumber quote, "....so you're saying there's a chance".

I just think we've got a lot more offense in us and our defense has mostly been very good, so, yeah, I've got hope.

 

[ChuckW]

First step is to have a good team. After that worry about injuries, schedule, home/away, how other teams play, luck, etc.

Step 1 seems to be achieved. Watched team all year, team seems good.

 

[AD Skinner]

If we played in the western conference we'd be in a playoff spot today

 

[Highway29]

I think (based on my eye-test this season) Rangers is the team we could catch, maybe Caps.

Haven't seen much of Blue Jackets though.

I think we have a good mix of players right now. All we need to do is get tougher in front of our own goal and get tougher mentally when the opponent scores.

 

[Unsustainable]

Would could break 100 points this year and miss the playoffs.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

As of right now, Spotsclubstats gives a 45% chance to the Canes if they finish with 95 points.

By comparison, they give Calgary a 41% chance if they finish with 87 points.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As of right now, Spotsclubstats gives a 45% chance to the Canes if they finish with 95 points.

By comparison, they give Calgary a 41% chance if they finish with 87 points.

Yeah, when the realignment occurred, we talked about being in the Metro was meat grinder. Now it's coming to fruition. To add on to your numbers:

100 points: 32-15-6, 88.2% chance
99 points: 32-16-5, 82.2% chance
98 points: 31-16-6, 74.8%
97 points: 30-16-7, 66.1%
96 points: 30-17-6, 56.2%
95 points: 29-17-7, 45.6%

So to get to a 75% chance, Canes need to go 31-16-6 the rest of the way. A lot of things can happen, but that's kind of where the bar is set IMO.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

As of right now, Spotsclubstats gives a 45% chance to the Canes if they finish with 95 points.

By comparison, they give Calgary a 41% chance if they finish with 87 points.

the second place team in the entire western conference would be 6th in the metropolitan division

thats not a joke

 

[Ole Gil]

Canes = Redford. ChuckW = Close

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The Canes having the #1 PK isn't a surprise, as they were there much of last year as well, but did anyone think that 1/3rd of the way through the season, the Canes would have the 6th ranked PP and that's with Faulk only have 1 PP goal?