Habs_Apostle
Registered User
- Feb 22, 2004
- 7,610
- 185
Lafleur's Guy and The Great Statistical Lie
The argument you, Lafleurs Guy, have repeatedly made is that MT is a bad coach because he has bad statistics. I’ve argued bad statistics don’t necessarily equate to a bad coach; there are so many other factors to consider. Up until now I haven’t looked in-depth at the team’s statistics and so just took your word for it that they were putrid. But I decided I’d really like to now how the team has fared stats-wise under Therrien over the past two and a third (or so) seasons.
The task I set for myself, then, was to select a broad range of statistics that reflect overall team play and then use criteria that you yourself have forwarded (that the team under Therrien has repeatedly fallen in the bottom 3rd on important team stats) to assess his coaching prowess.
OK, so what stats did I choose for this analysis? Here they are…
One widely accepted measure of 5-on-5 play, which presumably serves as a valid measure of a team’s puck possession, is Corsi. I think it would be informative to also break down Corsi For % into Corsi For and Corsi Against, as the latter will give us some insight into how we fare relative to other teams at directing pucks towards the opponents’ net (Corsi For) versus having pucks directed towards our net (Corsi Against). So we’ll take a look at Corsi For per 60 min of ice time (all shots for), Corsi Against per 60 min of ice time (all shot against), and then Corsi For % (ratio of the latter as a proxy for puck possession).
Beyond mere puck possession, we’ll look at success in putting the puck in the net and keeping it out of the net: Goals For per 60 min of ice time and Goals Against for 60 minutes of ice time. Also, to look at the efficiency with which we are scoring and keeping the puck out of the net, let’s include the team’s Shooting % and Save %.
Beyond 5-on-5 play, we’ll also look at special teams, so the PP% and PK%.
Finally, because I don’t think it should be completely discounted (it’s arguably the most important statistic of all), let’s include Total Points.
Now, I think these stats give a pretty good assessment of overall team play. For each of these stats, of course, we can bicker about how much direct influence the coach has. This is an argument that will likely go on for 18 pages and end in stalemate, however. As many Anti-Therriens have told me, though, Therrien is the coach and he’s ultimately responsible for all aspects of the team play. Fine, for better or for worse he’s responsible for overall team play as captured by the stats above. Well, let’s see how he fares…
Rules of the Game
You’ve stated several times MT is terrible because he is consistently in the bottom 3rd on all major statistics (for example, your quote from earlier in this thread, “Your eyes have told you we're playing well. Meanwhile the stats have us 28th in shots for and 20th in shots against - bottom third in all things not goaltending.” So let’s use YOUR rules. This is actually a nice way of comparing him to his peers. So we’ll say if most of these stats are bottom third (21-30), this equals a bad coach. If most stats are middle third (11-20), this equals a mediocre coach, and if most stats are upper third (21-30), this equals a good coach.
OK, and for this, let’s just let the numbers speak. So minimal dialogue…
Therrien’s First Season
Corsi For 60: 58% (6th overall)
Corsi Against 60: 51.7% (8th overall)
Corsi %: 52.9 (7th overall)
Goals For 60: 2.44 (5th overall)
Goals Against 60: 2.11 (13th overall)
Shooting %: 8.89 (6th overall)
SV%: 92.05 (17th overall)
PP: 20.7% (5th overall)
PK: 85.1% (4th overall)
Points: 63 (4th overall)
Result: 0 in bottom 3rd, 2 in middle 3rd, and 8 in top 3rd.
Conclusion: With none in the bottom third and all score in the upper 2/3, we’re forced to call Therrien an good coach.
Therrien’s Second Season
Corsi For 60: 52.9 (18th overall)
Corsi Against 60: 60.4 (27th overall)
Corsi %: 46.7 (26th overall)
Goals For 60: 2.04 (25th overall)
Goals Against 60: 2.12 (11th overall)
Shooting %: 7.44 (21st overall)
SV%: 93.04 (6th overall)
PP: 17.2% (19th overall)
PK: 85.1% (4th overall)
Points: 100 (10th overall)
Result: 4 in bottom 3rd, 5 in middle 3rd, and 2 in top 3rd.
Conclusion: With more stats in the lower 2/3, we’re forced to call Therrien a bad to mediocre coach.
Therrien’s Third Season
Corsi For 60: 56.3 (10th overall)
Corsi Against 60: 56.2 (21st overall)
Corsi %: 50.1 (20th overall)
Goals For 60: 2.45 (10th overall)
Goals Against 60: 2.05 (11th overall)
Shooting %: 8.66 (5th overall)
SV%: 92.87 (9th overall)
PP: 15.6% (21st overall)
PK: 86.1% (7th overall)
Points: 42 (tied 6th overall)
Result: 2 in the bottom 3rd, 2 in the middle 3rd, and 6 in the top 3rd.
Conclusion: With most stats in the upper 2/3, we’re forced to call Therrien a good coach.
Overall Conclusion Based on Stats Alone
BASED ON STATS ALONE, then, the team under MT has had one good season, one bad to mediocre season, and a good season so far this year. Using team statistics as a proxy for coaching prowess (whereby coaches are ranked on important team statistics in relation to their peers), then, the fairest conclusion is that he falls somewhere between mediocre and good as a coach.
Now, you’ve been repeatedly claiming he’s consistently fallen in the bottom 3rd of the league for major team statistics (again, your quote from earlier in this thread, “Your eyes have told you we're playing well. Meanwhile the stats have us 28th in shots for and 20th in shots against - bottom third in all things not goaltending.”) These statements are demonstrably and patently false. No offense, but you’re really stretching the truth or, worse, outright lying to everyone. So you should refrain from making such statements in future.
And you should also refrain from saying the only thing the Pro-Therriens are citing is Da Record. The ten stats I’ve reviewed above, which provide a pretty comprehensive overview of team health, show the Habs under Therrien, in relation to other teams, have faired pretty well.
The argument you, Lafleurs Guy, have repeatedly made is that MT is a bad coach because he has bad statistics. I’ve argued bad statistics don’t necessarily equate to a bad coach; there are so many other factors to consider. Up until now I haven’t looked in-depth at the team’s statistics and so just took your word for it that they were putrid. But I decided I’d really like to now how the team has fared stats-wise under Therrien over the past two and a third (or so) seasons.
The task I set for myself, then, was to select a broad range of statistics that reflect overall team play and then use criteria that you yourself have forwarded (that the team under Therrien has repeatedly fallen in the bottom 3rd on important team stats) to assess his coaching prowess.
OK, so what stats did I choose for this analysis? Here they are…
One widely accepted measure of 5-on-5 play, which presumably serves as a valid measure of a team’s puck possession, is Corsi. I think it would be informative to also break down Corsi For % into Corsi For and Corsi Against, as the latter will give us some insight into how we fare relative to other teams at directing pucks towards the opponents’ net (Corsi For) versus having pucks directed towards our net (Corsi Against). So we’ll take a look at Corsi For per 60 min of ice time (all shots for), Corsi Against per 60 min of ice time (all shot against), and then Corsi For % (ratio of the latter as a proxy for puck possession).
Beyond mere puck possession, we’ll look at success in putting the puck in the net and keeping it out of the net: Goals For per 60 min of ice time and Goals Against for 60 minutes of ice time. Also, to look at the efficiency with which we are scoring and keeping the puck out of the net, let’s include the team’s Shooting % and Save %.
Beyond 5-on-5 play, we’ll also look at special teams, so the PP% and PK%.
Finally, because I don’t think it should be completely discounted (it’s arguably the most important statistic of all), let’s include Total Points.
Now, I think these stats give a pretty good assessment of overall team play. For each of these stats, of course, we can bicker about how much direct influence the coach has. This is an argument that will likely go on for 18 pages and end in stalemate, however. As many Anti-Therriens have told me, though, Therrien is the coach and he’s ultimately responsible for all aspects of the team play. Fine, for better or for worse he’s responsible for overall team play as captured by the stats above. Well, let’s see how he fares…
Rules of the Game
You’ve stated several times MT is terrible because he is consistently in the bottom 3rd on all major statistics (for example, your quote from earlier in this thread, “Your eyes have told you we're playing well. Meanwhile the stats have us 28th in shots for and 20th in shots against - bottom third in all things not goaltending.” So let’s use YOUR rules. This is actually a nice way of comparing him to his peers. So we’ll say if most of these stats are bottom third (21-30), this equals a bad coach. If most stats are middle third (11-20), this equals a mediocre coach, and if most stats are upper third (21-30), this equals a good coach.
OK, and for this, let’s just let the numbers speak. So minimal dialogue…
Therrien’s First Season
Corsi For 60: 58% (6th overall)
Corsi Against 60: 51.7% (8th overall)
Corsi %: 52.9 (7th overall)
Goals For 60: 2.44 (5th overall)
Goals Against 60: 2.11 (13th overall)
Shooting %: 8.89 (6th overall)
SV%: 92.05 (17th overall)
PP: 20.7% (5th overall)
PK: 85.1% (4th overall)
Points: 63 (4th overall)
Result: 0 in bottom 3rd, 2 in middle 3rd, and 8 in top 3rd.
Conclusion: With none in the bottom third and all score in the upper 2/3, we’re forced to call Therrien an good coach.
Therrien’s Second Season
Corsi For 60: 52.9 (18th overall)
Corsi Against 60: 60.4 (27th overall)
Corsi %: 46.7 (26th overall)
Goals For 60: 2.04 (25th overall)
Goals Against 60: 2.12 (11th overall)
Shooting %: 7.44 (21st overall)
SV%: 93.04 (6th overall)
PP: 17.2% (19th overall)
PK: 85.1% (4th overall)
Points: 100 (10th overall)
Result: 4 in bottom 3rd, 5 in middle 3rd, and 2 in top 3rd.
Conclusion: With more stats in the lower 2/3, we’re forced to call Therrien a bad to mediocre coach.
Therrien’s Third Season
Corsi For 60: 56.3 (10th overall)
Corsi Against 60: 56.2 (21st overall)
Corsi %: 50.1 (20th overall)
Goals For 60: 2.45 (10th overall)
Goals Against 60: 2.05 (11th overall)
Shooting %: 8.66 (5th overall)
SV%: 92.87 (9th overall)
PP: 15.6% (21st overall)
PK: 86.1% (7th overall)
Points: 42 (tied 6th overall)
Result: 2 in the bottom 3rd, 2 in the middle 3rd, and 6 in the top 3rd.
Conclusion: With most stats in the upper 2/3, we’re forced to call Therrien a good coach.
Overall Conclusion Based on Stats Alone
BASED ON STATS ALONE, then, the team under MT has had one good season, one bad to mediocre season, and a good season so far this year. Using team statistics as a proxy for coaching prowess (whereby coaches are ranked on important team statistics in relation to their peers), then, the fairest conclusion is that he falls somewhere between mediocre and good as a coach.
Now, you’ve been repeatedly claiming he’s consistently fallen in the bottom 3rd of the league for major team statistics (again, your quote from earlier in this thread, “Your eyes have told you we're playing well. Meanwhile the stats have us 28th in shots for and 20th in shots against - bottom third in all things not goaltending.”) These statements are demonstrably and patently false. No offense, but you’re really stretching the truth or, worse, outright lying to everyone. So you should refrain from making such statements in future.
And you should also refrain from saying the only thing the Pro-Therriens are citing is Da Record. The ten stats I’ve reviewed above, which provide a pretty comprehensive overview of team health, show the Habs under Therrien, in relation to other teams, have faired pretty well.
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