The Vancouver Media Thread | Part VII

[Vector]

Somebody in the industry said something, Brough brought it up on his show as well, though he said he was hesitant to say anything about it as he wasn't that confident in the source. So while it may have been questionably sourced, it wasn't "made up" by Taylor. Brough heard the same thing.

Yeah, this is a separate issue. As much shit as we give the usual suspects, the reason they heavily couch what they are speculating and us a lot of "I think"s, they don't like to bring things to the public unless they have multiple sources. Sekeres gets a lot of shit for his "Hughes on IV drip" report and I pretty firmly believe this is the same thing.

 

[TruGr1t]

Brough heard nothing about him being a problem on or off the ice. He just said he heard his name in rumors. Brough this morning reiterated he didn't hear anything about the other stuff.

I was just referring to the fact he heard, probably from the same source, the Canucks possibly had him on the block.

 

[Nucker101]

It's clear that when you've heard of a rumour from a guy who heard it from another guy, and so on, some shit gets lost in translation by the time it's relayed to the public. Hell, look no further than when something is stated on 650, then Taj tweets about it, and then someone quotes Taj in here.

All it takes is one link in the chain of communication to either exaggerate or misinterpret something and it gets blown out of proportion.

 

[StreetHawk]

What projection have I denied you? Please be specific.





It doesn't matter if Dach compares now, he was a 21 year old top3 pick at that time. Did you know back then he would not become a 1C? Do you know now?

Did Eichel and Reinhart get traded at roughly the same age as Pettersson? Yes. They rebuilt again. Yes. (Oh btw, you could have made a case for the Canucks being mismanaged prior to the 4 UFA signings. It wasn't that long ago...)

What Pettersson and Hughes say matters as much as Rutherford saying he thought a rebuild was fair to consider... No one person holds the hammer with their statements. It's all about what actually gets done/what actually transpires.

Looking at Buffalo and their reboot, it isn’t getting better. That ROR move was back in 2018. Nearly 6 years ago.

You have top end players. No guarantee that the draft gets you better than what you opt to pass up on and work with.

Severson was like 29. Hronek is going to be 26. If you have to pay the premium cap wise get more prime years out of it. Plus no guarantees z Severson would have signed here. And he got that 8th year when CBS dealt for him.

Have to play the hand you were dealt. If JR and PA deemed that the key guys are a good base to start with then you kee them and figure out the rest.

 

[Raistlin]

I found it cheeky that Rutherford leaked the trade to Toronto media, and they didnt even know he wasnt joking at all.

 

[Bleach Clean]

It just continues to amaze me how you're able to project what would and would not have happened given a strategy. Like "could have worked a year or two earlier" or "not where the Canucks were"... What are the lotto numbers going to be?


But whatever… you clearly care more about the wrong things if you don’t look at details… this just goes back to why don’t we just trade Meyers for Makar… think of how good we would be.

What? (Meyers for Makar??)

You're projection eliminates two possible courses of action outright. No reason. No rationale. In turn, I have/had never eliminated the possibility of a successful re-tool (unlikely as it was). See the difference? Why can you not offer the other side of the premise the same latitude? Entertain the idea without accepting or rejecting it.

Looking at Buffalo and their reboot, it isn’t getting better. That ROR move was back in 2018. Nearly 6 years ago.

You have top end players. No guarantee that the draft gets you better than what you opt to pass up on and work with.

Severson was like 29. Hronek is going to be 26. If you have to pay the premium cap wise get more prime years out of it. Plus no guarantees z Severson would have signed here. And he got that 8th year when CBS dealt for him.

Have to play the hand you were dealt. If JR and PA deemed that the key guys are a good base to start with then you kee them and figure out the rest.

No one said it was a guarantee. This is about what is and what is not a valid premise. What Rutherford referred to as a "fair argument" from Lalji.

There was no assurance that a quick re-tool was going to work either. Where they are now is not something people could have reasonably projected in the offseason, but people seem to treat that as a given and now scoff at the notion put forth by Drance. It's really undeserved imo.

 

[racerjoe]

What? (Meyers for Makar??)

You're projection eliminates two possible courses of action outright. No reason. No rationale. In turn, I have/had never eliminated the possibility of a successful re-tool (unlikely as it was). See the difference? Why can you not offer the other side of the premise the same latitude? Entertain the idea without accepting or rejecting it.





No one said it was a guarantee. This is about what is and what is not a valid premise. What Rutherford referred to as a "fair argument" from Lalji.

There was no assurance that a quick re-tool was going to work either. Where they are now is not something people could have reasonably projected in the offseason, but people seem to treat that as a given and now scoff at the notion put forth by Drance. It's really undeserved imo.

Meyers for makar would be clearly living in a fantasy world much like what you have said.

That is the rational…

 

[Bleach Clean]

Meyers for makar would be clearly living in a fantasy world much like what you have said.

That is the rational…

I think you're fantasy argument has been rightly refuted. CHI and BUF are only recent examples. DET was almost in the same boat. It's clearly reality that teams have had to rebuild failed rebuilds, even with good young players in house.

The rest is just a function of how each GM assigns a probability to a course of action. In the offseason, the higher probability was that they would retool (post Hronek trade), and they did. Before that though, there was every reason to believe they had at least considered (with intent), starting over. It was 10 years of failure here. Buffalo-esque (and Pettersson still isn't signed). To scoff at a rebuild within that context is just absurd. It's actually a bit arrogant if you don't mind me saying so. This has been a failing club for quite some time... Until now.

 

[Hodgy]

Dach didn't need to be Pettersson or Hughes to be a building block. He just had to project out to a 1C. You're saying that he was not that quality of player. Ok. Was Pettersson that quality of player at 23, where he had an abysmal season? Did you know at that time he would be a 100+ point player? I know I didn't, and I backed the Pettersson and Hughes picks. It's an amazing projection on your part if you did.

Wait, are you asking him if he can predict the future?

Ignoring that obviously he didn't "know", and course, no one did, its not like Pettersson scoring 100 points is all that crazy or unpredictable. Sure, he had a very bad half to three quarters of a season at 23, and there was definitely cause for concern, he was still essentially a point per game player at ages 21 and 22, and then finished his "abysmal season" with a very strong last quarter or so where he actually scored at a great clip.

So ya, I don't think anyone was that surprised that he would score 100 points in this league.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Wait, are you asking him if he can predict the future?

Ignoring that obviously he didn't "know", and course, no one did, its not like Pettersson scoring 100 points is all that crazy or unpredictable. Sure, he had a very bad half to three quarters of a season at 23, and there was definitely cause for concern, he was still essentially a point per game player at ages 21 and 22, and then finished his "abysmal season" with a very strong last quarter or so where he actually scored at a great clip.

So ya, I don't think anyone was that surprised that he would score 100 points in this league.

There's a difference in saying he had that ability versus betting on the over that he would.

And yes, I'm asking him if he can predict the future (he can't, I know).

 

[Hodgy]

There's a difference in saying he had that ability versus betting on the over that he would.

And yes, I'm asking him if he can predict the future (he can't, I know).

You then say it would have been an "an amazing projection on your part if you did."

My point is it wouldn't have been an amazing projection. There was a ton of relevant information that supported the idea that Pettersson would hit 100 points during his prime.

 

[Bleach Clean]

You then say it would have been an "an amazing projection on your part if you did."

My point is it wouldn't have been an amazing projection. There was a ton of relevant information that supported the idea that Pettersson would hit 100 points during his prime.

The context of that statement was about projecting at the end of his 23 year old season: "Ok. Was Pettersson that quality of player at 23, where he had an abysmal season? Did you know at that time he would be a 100+ point player?"

Now if you were resolute that he would absolutely hit 100 points in his prime regardless, kudos to you. Great scouting. I (and I think many others) would definitely not have taken the over on that until the beginning of his 24 year old season (where he eventually achieved the mark).

 

[F A N]

The context of that statement was about projecting at the end of his 23 year old season: "Ok. Was Pettersson that quality of player at 23, where he had an abysmal season? Did you know at that time he would be a 100+ point player?"

Now if you were resolute that he would absolutely hit 100 points in his prime regardless, kudos to you. Great scouting. I (and I think many others) would definitely not have taken the over on that until the beginning of his 24 year old season (where he eventually achieved the mark).

What an odd series of posts.

 

[Hodgy]

The context of that statement was about projecting at the end of his 23 year old season: "Ok. Was Pettersson that quality of player at 23, where he had an abysmal season? Did you know at that time he would be a 100+ point player?"

Now if you were resolute that he would absolutely hit 100 points in his prime regardless, kudos to you. Great scouting. I (and I think many others) would definitely not have taken the over on that until the beginning of his 24 year old season (where he eventually achieved the mark).

You said it would be an “amazing projection” at that time, something I have already raised and which you’ve conveniently ignored.

It wouldn’t have been an “amazing projection” at that time for the reasons I have already stated.

 

[racerjoe]

If @Bleach Clean wants to continue to live in his fantasy whatever… I even posted a link where Hughes said he would not have stayed… it’s absolutely fantasy, and if he wants to live there whatever…

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Vancouver media is terrible. Period. Always stirring something up - its no wonder players dont want to play here. I wouldn't

The media attention Hockey gets compared to the bigger sports in north america is laughably small.

MAYBE Toronto gets close but even they get beat by Dallas and their Cowboys etc.


Are hockey players just inherently weaker mentally than their NBA / NFL / MLB counterparts?

What an odd series of posts.

[redacted]

 

[Bleach Clean]

If @Bleach Clean wants to continue to live in his fantasy whatever… I even posted a link where Hughes said he would not have stayed… it’s absolutely fantasy, and if he wants to live there whatever…

And Rutherford said that questions regarding a rebuild was fair. Please refer to the "Major Surgery" presser on Youtube.

A recap of GMs/Media that think a rebuild with 21-24 year old core players is not fantasy: Rutherford, Lalji, Drance, Donny, Kevyn Adams, Kyle Davidson etc... I'll leave it there.

You said it would be an “amazing projection” at that time, something I have already raised and which you’ve conveniently ignored.

It wouldn’t have been an “amazing projection” at that time for the reasons I have already stated.

Conveniently ignored this?

"he had a very bad half to three quarters of a season at 23, and there was definitely cause for concern, he was still essentially a point per game player at ages 21 and 22, and then finished his "abysmal season" with a very strong last quarter or so where he actually scored at a great clip."


Why take the shorter sample within season as meaningful and ignore the season sample as less meaningful? That is the usual sample of predictive shot metric models (was 100~ games, but now more 82 game sets (weighted toward recent samples)). He trended down from is 21 and 22 year old seasons. Which was "cause for concern", I agree, but if we're concerned, why would we be bullish on his eventual totals (unless we ignore recent date/trends entirely? There was enough doubt that he would become a PPG+ player, let alone 100 points, at least for me. (Though I would have liked to have seen a rational argument made for this at the time)

To provide some context here, in the last 5 full 82 game seasons, these are the number of players to reach 100 points:

11 (His 24 year old season)
8 (His 23 year old season)
6
3
1

Scoring has bumped up the last 2 years, but that is heady company. If you thought Pettersson would reach it, great. I certainly would have called that projection amazing at that time, especially given the fact that we have to go back to 2006-07 to get close to 8 players hitting 100 points (7 that year).

 

[F A N]

Now if you were resolute that he would absolutely hit 100 points in his prime regardless, kudos to you. Great scouting. I (and I think many others) would definitely not have taken the over on that until the beginning of his 24 year old season (where he eventually achieved the mark).

I don't want to toot my own horn. But prior to Ovechkin beginning his 25 year old season, I had determined that Ovechkin had peaked and I was taking the under on Ovechkin hitting 100 points ever again.

I did something similar with Crosby. He didn't have a good contract year being injury-riddled and all and so I thought for sure that he would bounce back and show he's worth his new contract. But I thought that was it. He was then aged 27, I had determined that Crosby had peaked and I was taking the under on Crosby hitting 100 points ever again. Crosby proved me wrong once but I say it was just a fluke.

As for last season, I actually had an inkling that Petey would hit over 100 points but I have to be honest. I wasn't 100% sure. Not like how I was sure that RNH would outscore Petey last season. Prior to last season, I was having some drinks and I said that RNH would hit 100 points, some Ronning fan who had just emptied his drink laughed at me and asked if I wanted to bet offered me odds. So I took the over on RNH hitting 100 points. Of course it was a small bet as I don't bankrupt the guy as he was running on empty.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I don't want to toot my own horn. But prior to Ovechkin beginning his 25 year old season, I had determined that Ovechkin had peaked and I was taking the under on Ovechkin hitting 100 points ever again.

I did something similar with Crosby. He didn't have a good contract year being injury-riddled and all and so I thought for sure that he would bounce back and show he's worth his new contract. But I thought that was it. He was then aged 27, I had determined that Crosby had peaked and I was taking the under on Crosby hitting 100 points ever again. Crosby proved me wrong once but I say it was just a fluke.

As for last season, I actually had an inkling that Petey would hit over 100 points but I have to be honest. I wasn't 100% sure. Not like how I was sure that RNH would outscore Petey last season. Prior to last season, I was having some drinks and I said that RNH would hit 100 points, some Ronning fan who had just emptied his drink laughed at me and asked if I wanted to bet offered me odds. So I took the over on RNH hitting 100 points. Of course it was a small bet as I don't bankrupt the guy as he was running on empty.

I dont understand.

Do you completely miss Bleaches point or are you making fun of your self here?

 

[racerjoe]

And Rutherford said that questions regarding a rebuild was fair. Please refer to the "Major Surgery" presser on Youtube.

A recap of GMs/Media that think a rebuild with 21-24 year old core players is not fantasy: Rutherford, Lalji, Drance, Donny, Kevyn Adams, Kyle Davidson etc... I'll leave it there.

If you want to continue to ignore context sure... it would be a rebuild yes if he couldn't right the ship like they did, as the players would have asked for trades/forced their way out.

It was even said by people that were pro the direction they went, it was a hard road to execute... but was always the 1ST ROAD TO TRY...

 

[Hodgy]

Why take the shorter sample within season as meaningful and ignore the season sample as less meaningful?

I am not ignoring it, that's a strawman.

That is the usual sample of predictive shot metric models (was 100~ games, but now more 82 game sets (weighted toward recent samples)).

Ok, I've never dismissed his struggles and acknowledged them.

He trended down from is 21 and 22 year old seasons.

Unless I am missing something, he increased his PPG from 20 to 21, almost hitting a point per game at 21. 22 was the weird short season and he scored 21 points in 26 games. The first half of his 23 year old season was where he really struggled, and he finished the year with 68 in 80 games, but he scored 43 points in the final 34 games. So he struggled for about the first half of the season or so, and then went on a tear.

Which was "cause for concern", I agree, but if we're concerned, why would we be bullish on his eventual totals (unless we ignore recent date/trends entirely? There was enough doubt that he would become a PPG+ player, let alone 100 points, at least for me. (Though I would have liked to have seen a rational argument made for this at the time)

You stated that it would be an "amazing" projection for someone to think that Petey would score 100 points in this league during his struggles at 23. In reality, Petey had scored 153 points over his first 165 games in the NHL over his 20-22 year seasons (including his 21 year old season where he essentially scored at a point per game).

So ya, even though he struggled pretty badly for the first half or so of his 23 year old season, it wouldn't be an "amazing" projection to project that he may become a 100 point player in his prime.

To provide some context here, in the last 5 full 82 game seasons, these are the number of players to reach 100 points:

11 (His 24 year old season)
8 (His 23 year old season)
6
3
1

Scoring has bumped up the last 2 years, but that is heady company. If you thought Pettersson would reach it, great. I certainly would have called that projection amazing at that time, especially given the fact that we have to go back to 2006-07 to get close to 8 players hitting 100 points (7 that year).

Many thought Petey was the most gifted offensive player in his draft year, and the advanced statistics backed that up. So we are talking about a guy, who from a production perspective, was arguably the best player at the time of his draft. And then he wins rookie of the year, and then he essentially scored at a point per game during his 21 year old season. In his 22 year old season he has a bit of a dip, but that was the weird covid shortened season, and even then, he still scores 21 in 26 games. Overall, he scores very well overall for his 20-22 year old seasons, and without doing the math or research, I am going to assume he was the highest scoring player during that time at those ages.

So ya, even though Petey was struggling for the first 50 games of his 23 year old season (at which time 8 guys were, presumably, pacing to hit 100 points) I don't think it would have been an "amazing projection" to project Petey - who was, presumably, the most productive player for his age over hte previous there seasons - to eventually hit 100 points during his prime.

 

[MS]

I am not ignoring it, that's a strawman.



Ok, I've never dismissed his struggles and acknowledged them.



Unless I am missing something, he increased his PPG from 20 to 21, almost hitting a point per game at 21. 22 was the weird short season and he scored 21 points in 26 games. The first half of his 23 year old season was where he really struggled, and he finished the year with 68 in 80 games, but he scored 43 points in the final 34 games. So he struggled for about the first half of the season or so, and then went on a tear.



You stated that it would be an "amazing" projection for someone to think that Petey would score 100 points in this league during his struggles at 23. In reality, Petey had scored 153 points over his first 165 games in the NHL over his 20-22 year seasons (including his 21 year old season where he essentially scored at a point per game).

So ya, even though he struggled pretty badly for the first half or so of his 23 year old season, it wouldn't be an "amazing" projection to project that he may become a 100 point player in his prime.




Many thought Petey was the most gifted offensive player in his draft year, and the advanced statistics backed that up. So we are talking about a guy, who from a production perspective, was arguably the best player at the time of his draft. And then he wins rookie of the year, and then he essentially scored at a point per game during his 21 year old season. In his 22 year old season he has a bit of a dip, but that was the weird covid shortened season, and even then, he still scores 21 in 26 games. Overall, he scores very well overall for his 20-22 year old seasons, and without doing the math or research, I am going to assume he was the highest scoring player during that time at those ages.

So ya, even though Petey was struggling for the first 50 games of his 23 year old season (at which time 8 guys were, presumably, pacing to hit 100 points) I don't think it would have been an "amazing projection" to project Petey - who was, presumably, the most productive player for his age over hte previous there seasons - to eventually hit 100 points during his prime.

The other thing that happened is that scoring in the NHL has gone up noticeably over the past 5 years, and in particular PP scoring which flows into star players. Everyone is scoring more.

So from Pettersson being an ~80 point player in 19-20 what actually happened is that he became ... a 90-ish point player in 22-23 by the standard being compared to.

 

[Hodgy]

The other thing that happened is that scoring in the NHL has gone up noticeably over the past 5 years, and in particular PP scoring which flows into star players. Everyone is scoring more.

So from Pettersson being an ~80 point player in 19-20 what actually happened is that he became ... a 90-ish point player in 22-23 by the standard being compared to.

For sure, and this trend was apparent during his slump when @Bleach Clean is claiming it would be an "amazing projection" to project him to ever score 100 points which is crazy.

An "amazing projection" is projecting someone like St. Louis or Gaudreau to score 100 points in their draft year. I have no idea why someone would think 40-50 bad games by Petey would somehow erase the preceding 5 years.

 

[MS]

For sure, and this trend was apparent during his slump when @Bleach Clean is claiming it would be an "amazing projection" to project him to ever score 100 points which is crazy.

An "amazing projection" is projecting someone like St. Louis or Gaudreau to score 100 points in their draft year. I have no idea why someone would think 40-50 bad games by Petey would somehow erase the preceding 5 years.

JT Miller scoring 100 points from what he was when we traded for him would be an amazing projection.

Pettersson scored 80 points/82 as a sophomore at age 20/21 and literally everyone at that point was thinking he'd become a 90-100+ point player.

Then he had an injury and a weird mental checkout for a half season, and then has done nothing but produce at a 100-point pace since.

There were certainly questions about him in December 2021 but turning into a 100-point player was hardly some great shock.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

JT Miller scoring 100 points from what he was when we traded for him would be an amazing projection.

Pettersson scored 80 points/82 as a sophomore at age 20/21 and literally everyone at that point was thinking he'd become a 90-100+ point player.

Then he had an injury and a weird mental checkout for a half season, and then has done nothing but produce at a 100-point pace since.

There were certainly questions about him in December 2021 but turning into a 100-point player was hardly some great shock.

Honestly I have a harder time believing people thought Petey wouldn’t be a 100 pt guy based off half a season.