OT: The Thread About Nothing: Party like it's 199

[JimEIV]

Almost time for me to disappear into the Rockies for a while. I expect it to be pretty cold.

These pictures are from the first week of July a few years ago and it we got snow above 8000 feet in elevation. I think this spring has been even colder than that one.

 

[tr83]

Almost time for me to disappear into the Rockies for a while. I expect it to be pretty cold.

These pictures are from the first week of July a few years ago and it we got snow above 8000 feet in elevation. I think this spring has been even colder than that one.

Is this Wyoming?

 

[JimEIV]

Is this Wyoming?

Yes. Jackson Hole area...This is actually in Moose, Wyoming. How awesome it to have town named Moose!

 

[JimEIV]

My absolute favorite place in the world to have a beer and chill out for a while

https://www.google.com/maps/place/D...2c1e8a5!8m2!3d43.657312!4d-110.710532!6m1!1e1

 

[JimEIV]

I can't wait to get lost and have no internet service...most of the internet seems to be things I absolutely despise... pop-culture, cats, pointless political points of view, stupid memes...

I have no way to shelter myself other than the expansive void of cell towers that is the mountains.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Though from what I understand, it was a warm fall up there too. I remember people back home saying it was 70 degrees on Christmas Day this last year.

It was ridiculous. I remember hunting in a ground blind in shorts and a tee-shirt in late November because I was roasting. It was > 80 IIRC.

 

[JimEIV]

It was ridiculous. I remember hunting in a ground blind in shorts and a tee-shirt in late November because I was roasting. It was > 80 IIRC.

This past fall? I don't seem to remember that?

 

[tr83]

Yes. Jackson Hole area...This is actually in Moose, Wyoming. How awesome it to have town named Moose!

Beautiful. No wonder why all the rich people meet there every year.

 

[BenedictGomez]

This past fall? I don't seem to remember that?

It might not have been late November, but I remember definitely a warm November. I remember taking off my pants and jacket and being in boxers and a black ls tee-shirt. The black interior of the blind definitely holds in heat too, so that's a factor.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Did everyone else miss this story last week? It doesnt seem to be getting the coverage that it deserves IMO.

New York Times expose into Russia swapping out bad urine samples of their athletes for normal urine during Sochi Olympics?

They actually CONSTRUCTED the urine sample lab with a hidden hole in the wall so drugged & healthy samples of Russia's athletes could be swapped back and forth into/out of the lab.

A third of Russia’s 33 medals were awarded to athletes whose names appeared on a spreadsheet outlining the government’s doping plan.

I'd assume the IOC would strip the medals, but given how everyone lives in fear of Putin, it wouldnt shock me if they dont.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ion=click&contentCollection=meter-links-click

 

[JimEIV]

I was going to post on Facebook a prayer and share request for Patryk Wasik whose mother was affect by the Zika Virus

My wife told me I better not do it. I told her that she is not very compassionate. And that maybe I should just start a gofundme account?

I think she is actually terrified I am going to do it.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Sadly an EgyptAir flight from Paris to Cairo disappeared from radar moments ago.

 

[JimEIV]

Didn't someone here say they spent some time in Slovenia? I'm thinking about going this year, maybe in the early fall. Anybody know about it?

 

[BenedictGomez]

Anyone run an OS other than Windows that they like/prefer/enjoy?

MSFT's tactics with this Windows 10 "upgrade" are almost mindboggling in their heavy-handedless, so much so that I (a person who is tough to surprise) am pretty shocked. I feel like a Chinese textile worker, and if there's a way to micro-punish MSFT and free these chains, I'm now game.

 

[JimEIV]

Anyone run an OS other than Windows that they like/prefer/enjoy?

MSFT's tactics with this Windows 10 "upgrade" are almost mindboggling in their heavy-handedless, so much so that I (a person who is tough to surprise) am pretty shocked. I feel like a Chinese textile worker, and if there's a way to micro-punish MSFT and free these chains, I'm now game.

Quite a few of the developers I work with use some variation of Linux for personal use.


http://www.zdnet.com/article/why-sw...mac-when-you-can-use-linux-mint-17-3-instead/

 

[tr83]

Anyone run an OS other than Windows that they like/prefer/enjoy?

MSFT's tactics with this Windows 10 "upgrade" are almost mindboggling in their heavy-handedless, so much so that I (a person who is tough to surprise) am pretty shocked. I feel like a Chinese textile worker, and if there's a way to micro-punish MSFT and free these chains, I'm now game.

I heard about Mr Softie's intrusiveness in that if you have what they define as pirated software, it'll shut it down. If I transfer my files from a computer including software I legitimately purchased, what then?

I use Mac OS at home. I'm not a fanboy by any means but everytime I go to work, I remember why I don't buy Microsoft products anymore. The software is very stable. It doesn't freeze. It doesn't get bogged down with Malware or registry errors. It's virus resistant (Though not virusproof) in that most viruses target Microsoft OS. Etc, etc, etc.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Microsoft will not be the King of the Jungle in a decade.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Quite a few of the developers I work with use some variation of Linux for personal use.

I'm looking at Linux Mint at the moment. Seems like people who know about computers like it.

 

[BenedictGomez]

This week's episode of: Troubling Economic News with BG

US Home prices on an inflation-adjusted basis are < 13% below the absolute peek of the 2007-2008 Housing Bubble.

Housing Bubble 2.0 is just around the corner.

 

[tr83]

Microsoft will not be the King of the Jungle in a decade.

I don't know. Microsoft is the OS that is familiar to most. IT pros might get skewered from the peons for switching OS's and their software. While I use Apple laptops, I would probably be pretty angry if I had to use iWorks

This week's episode of: Troubling Economic News with BG

US Home prices on an inflation-adjusted basis are < 13% below the absolute peek of the 2007-2008 Housing Bubble.

Housing Bubble 2.0 is just around the corner.

If you look at these charts

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MDSP
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/mortoutstand/current.htm

the average joe is getting back to being able to afford a mortgage payment and banks are not overextended thanks to Dodd-Frank.

What's not clear in your chart is that there is a LOT of foreign money parked in US real estate (especially multi-family homes). Much more than in 2007. NY is #1 for Chinese money and SF is #2. Miami's market is absolutely insane with South American and Canadian money. This is pushing the American "middle class" out of the cities into the suburbs.

The bubble that I would be worried about is the corporate debt held by Chinese companies. This is in lieu of the state holding the debt. In America, it's a 1:1 debt to GDP. China's corporate debt is almost a 3:1 debt to GDP ratio and ballooning fast. The Chinese have shown that they really have no idea what they're doing during their mini crisis last year when they closed the markets or limited how much money could be withdrawn.

As soon as the bubble bursts over there, this is going to devastate everybody's 401(k)...again as well as anyone holding Renminbi's. China may have another revolution.

If big cracks start to form in the Chinese companies, buy puts on the S&P or the FXI, buy gold if that's not your cup of tea, or just sit on cash (dollars) in your 401(k).

 

[BenedictGomez]

If you look at these charts

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MDSP
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/mortoutstand/current.htm

the average joe is getting back to being able to afford a mortgage payment and banks are not overextended thanks to Dodd-Frank.

What's not clear in your chart is that there is a LOT of foreign money parked in US real estate (especially multi-family homes). Much more than in 2007. NY is #1 for Chinese money and SF is #2. Miami's market is absolutely insane with South American and Canadian money. This is pushing the American "middle class" out of the cities into the suburbs.

The bubble that I would be worried about is the corporate debt held by Chinese companies. This is in lieu of the state holding the debt. In America, it's a 1:1 debt to GDP. China's corporate debt is almost a 3:1 debt to GDP ratio and ballooning fast. The Chinese have shown that they really have no idea what they're doing during their mini crisis last year when they closed the markets or limited how much money could be withdrawn.

As soon as the bubble bursts over there, this is going to devastate everybody's 401(k)...again as well as anyone holding Renminbi's. China may have another revolution.

If big cracks start to form in the Chinese companies, buy puts on the S&P or the FXI, buy gold if that's not your cup of tea, or just sit on cash (dollars) in your 401(k).

Everywhere you look there are bubbles. Yes, China's debt is a bubble, but so is China's real estate. The most disconcerting things re: China from my perspective is you have absolutely no idea what to believe, because you need to assume much of what they're telling/releasing to the planet is total BS. But hey, just keep building 800 store shopping malls with 70 tenants and all will be well - gotta' keep them peasants employed so they dont get the idea to sharpen some sticks (the Commies were smart to not let them own guns).

Our stock market's probably a bubble now too, at the very least it's WAY overvalued. Historically high P/Es in concert with poor quality of earnings should terrify people - the fact this isn't terrifying people is probably the best circumstantial bubble evidence I can offer. I did something that's completely inadvisable from a historical perspective recently, pushed the 401k to cash.

I believe our real estate is within 2 to 4 years from a bubble too, which will see US home values plummet once again. Economic fundamentals simply do not support current US home prices in most markets. And the government is now once again pushing banks to make risky loans to people who have absolutely no business "owning" a home in the first place, which is what caused the 2007-2008 Bubble.

Next we have the Feds disastrous QEforever policies (from which they have no idea how to extricate themselves) which have inflated prices of anything that looks like an asset. I dont even believe they CAN meaningfully increase interest rates anymore, despite their blather. IMO the Fed is playing the largest "poker bluff" in the history of the world right now, because the Emperor cant risk being seen without his clothes on.

So yeah, gold's probably not a bad idea right now (gotta watch the USD though), so is an ETF short the S&P500 or double or triple leveraged short the S&P500 if you have greater conviction. I'm there. Also buying some durable goods which have done great the last few years.

 

[tr83]

Everywhere you look there are bubbles. Yes, China's debt is a bubble, but so is China's real estate. The most disconcerting things re: China from my perspective is you have absolutely no idea what to believe, because you need to assume much of what they're telling/releasing to the planet is total BS. But hey, just keep building 800 store shopping malls with 70 tenants and all will be well - gotta' keep them peasants employed so they dont get the idea to sharpen some sticks (the Commies were smart to not let them own guns).

Our stock market's probably a bubble now too, at the very least it's WAY overvalued. Historically high P/Es in concert with poor quality of earnings should terrify people - the fact this isn't terrifying people is probably the best circumstantial bubble evidence I can offer. I did something that's completely inadvisable from a historical perspective recently, pushed the 401k to cash.

I believe our real estate is within 2 to 4 years from a bubble too, which will see US home values plummet once again. Economic fundamentals simply do not support current US home prices in most markets. And the government is now once again pushing banks to make risky loans to people who have absolutely no business "owning" a home in the first place, which is what caused the 2007-2008 Bubble.

Next we have the Feds disastrous QEforever policies (from which they have no idea how to extricate themselves) which have inflated prices of anything that looks like an asset. I dont even believe they CAN meaningfully increase interest rates anymore, despite their blather. IMO the Fed is playing the largest "poker bluff" in the history of the world right now, because the Emperor cant risk being seen without his clothes on.

So yeah, gold's probably not a bad idea right now (gotta watch the USD though), so is an ETF short the S&P500 or double or triple leveraged short the S&P500 if you have greater conviction. I'm there. Also buying some durable goods which have done great the last few years.

Even the international art market is a bubble

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspi...to-the-international-art-market/#240003123c79

Is there evidence for the government pushing bad loans again? Apartment occupation is near all time highs.


There are a lot of nerves in the market right now. It's why I won't put any money to work. The last two weeks have been low highs and lower lows. The chart for the S&P is showing a double top, which means...look out below!

Major companies are doing OK. If there weren't analysts out there putting targets on companies' earnings, most wouldn't be impressed but most wouldn't be all that nervous. There are some good analysts, but many are not really good at what they do. I own shares of Under Armor, there's one analyst for Morgan Stanley that said that his channel checks for the Steph Curry's shoe sales are slowing. UA comes out and blows the numbers out of the water. The analyst has done this for the last two quarters. No one holds him accountable.

I'm not exactly sure how many shares are floated on the exchanges, but I would be interested to see such a chart. Companies are buying back stock instead of issuing dividends. How many of these shares are then being reissued in small blocks as executives cash in? I wonder if this has anything to do with PEs being so high.

There are a lot of articles out there at the moment saying how many people are feeling good about their own household income (my guess is that they are interviewing a LOT of college educated people). The midewest middle class is getting annihilated as companies move ops to Mexico. Economies of entire towns are collapsing.


To be fair, the Fed stopped QE a year and a half ago. The recession of 1937 was caused by interest rates being raised too quickly. When coming out of a liquidity trap, it's important that rates aren't raised too quickly.

To me it seems that many are pissed because they put their money in a bank to earn pitiful interest in a CD or in bonds. In fact, the interest rate is lower than inflation so they're losing money. Some are clamoring for an interest rate rise to help their CDs.

But your right in that the last two charts in the link below are downright terrifying. So many financial engineers still making bets using derivatives. The world governments needs to reel these in. They had their chance but it's still astounding.

In the end it will end up in another world war or debt being forgiven (see Puerto Rico).

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...s-in-the-entire-world-in-one-chart-2015-12-18

 

[BenedictGomez]

Is there evidence for the government pushing bad loans again?

Yes; it's been going on (again) for a while now.

Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit

And financial institutions are (again) partially to blame too.

"Liar Loans" Are Back In 2007 Housing Bubble Redux

 

[BenedictGomez]

All 5xx series roads in New Jersey, by definition, cross county borders.

Never knew that.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Mom's basement, now primary living space for majority of 18-34 year olds.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016...r-living-arrangements-for-18-to-34-year-olds/