Speculation: The race for 97 points AKA the playoff push thread.

[Kevin27NYI]

hoping Beau gets goals down this stretch, hits 25. Him and Eberle need to get going

 

[MattMartin]

I updated page 1 for some different scenarios.

 

[BrockLobster]

I updated page 1 for some different scenarios.

What does the number next to the opponent mean? Some have a 2. Some have a 3

 

[MattMartin]

What does the number next to the opponent mean? Some have a 2. Some have a 3

That was for my book keeping, will fix.

 

[kmo429]

Isles magic number is 21, which means 6 games over .500 gets us in regardless of what other teams do. Very tough, but let’s forget about scoreboard watching and just WIN. Isles need a better effort and 2 points tonight

 

[JJA86]

Isles magic number is 21, which means 6 games over .500 gets us in regardless of what other teams do. Very tough, but let’s forget about scoreboard watching and just WIN. Isles need a better effort and 2 points tonight

If we beat CBJ the magic number drops an additional point because CBJ and MTL play head on and someone can’t get the second point.

In addition, there are many head to head game between PIT CAR CBJ MON. Because of that percentage wise NYI still have the edge although they’re cratering.

 

[MJF]

I've got some good news and I've got some bad news.....

 

[PK Cronin]

I've got some good news and I've got some bad news.....

Who plays the right side with Boychuk out? Pelech or Toews? Hickey will be in now, another opportunity for him.

 

[MJF]

Who plays the right side with Boychuk out? Pelech or Toews? Hickey will be in now, another opportunity for him.

Depends on if I’m trying to shelter Hickey or Toews. I’m inclined to go with Pelech-Pulock next game.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

Who plays the right side with Boychuk out? Pelech or Toews? Hickey will be in now, another opportunity for him.

To shoot us in the foot.

 

[MattMartin]

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME	Results	Record needed for 97
Sat, Mar 9	vs Philadelphia	7:00 PM	Loss	5-8-2 or 6-9-0
Mon, Mar 11	vs Columbus	7:00 PM	Win	5-7-2 or 6-8-0
Thu, Mar 14	vs Montreal	7:00 PM		4-7-2 or 5-8-0
Sat, Mar 16	@Detroit	2:00 PM		x
Sun, Mar 17	@ Minnesota	6:00 PM
Tue, Mar 19	vs Boston	7:00 PM
Thu, Mar 21	@ Montreal	7:30 PM
Sat, Mar 23	@ Philadelphia	1:00 PM
Sun, Mar 24	vs Arizona	3:00 PM
Tue, Mar 26	@ Columbus	7:00 PM
Thu, Mar 28	@ Winnipeg	8:00 PM
Sat, Mar 30	vs Buffalo	7:00 PM
Mon, Apr 1	vs Toronto	7:00 PM
Thu, Apr 4	@ Florida	7:00 PM
Sat, Apr 6	@ Washington	7:00 PM

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For Columbus and Montreal to get to 97, they would need to go 8-3-2 or 9-4-0. For Philadelphia, 10-2-1 or 9-1-3.

Also, need to add the brutal schedule remaining for the Flyers...

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME
Thu, Mar 14	vs Washington	7:00 PM
Fri, Mar 15	@ Toronto	7:00 PM
Sun, Mar 17	@ Pittsburgh	7:30 PM
Tue, Mar 19	vs Montreal	7:00 PM
Thu, Mar 21	@ Chicago	8:30 PM
Sat, Mar 23	vs Islanders	1:00 PM
Sun, Mar 24	@ Washington	12:30 PM
Wed, Mar 27	vs Toronto	7:00 PM
Sat, Mar 30	@ Carolina	1:00 PM
Sun, Mar 31	vs Rangers	12:30 PM
Tue, Apr 2	@ Dallas	8:30 PM
Thu, Apr 4	@ St. Louis	8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 6	vs Carolina	7:00 PM

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The games in bold are all current playoff teams and Montreal is still ahead of them. So their two "easy games" are VS Rangers and @ Chicago.

Washington x2
Carolina x2
Toronto x2

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Got no help from Ottawa or Colorado last night.

 

[kmo429]

Updated magic number is 19 I believe. If Montreal were to lose in regulation tonight, it would go down to 17 with a shot to get it to 13 on Thursday (This would mean 1 game above NHL .500 the rest of the way would clinch it. Fingys crossed! Although the standings are tight and you can never get too comfortable, and given that we spent a while in first place so just getting in won't feel as good, we're still in a very strong position. Need to get a little win streak going.

 

[BMOK33]

It’s gonna be an interesting final game of the season if we are fighting for 2 and 3 with Pittsburgh or Carolina and Washington is up more than 2 on us. Do they stick it to Trotz and play Holtby and Ovie or do they pretty much sit 1/3rd of the roster and possibly hand us home ice while those other two teams play 10 and 11 seeds who will likely be trying to spoil things for them

 

[dcv2002]

Update 3/12/19 One bad loss, one good wind

	To 96	To 98	To 100	To 102	To 104		Last 10	Last 10 Rest of way
TBL	Ha	Ha	Ha	Ha	Ha	-	8-2-0	129.2 pts
BOS	1-11-1	2-10-1	3-9-1	4-8-1	5-7-1		8-1-1	115.1 pts
NYI	4-8-1	5-7-1	6-6-1	7-5-1	8-4-1		5-4-1	101.3 pts
TOR	3-9-1	4-8-1	5-7-1	6-6-1	7-5-1		6-3-1	105.9 pts
WSH	3-9-1	4-8-1	5-7-1	6-6-1	7-5-1		9-1-0	112.4 pts
CBJ	8-4-1	9-3-1	10-2-1	11-1-1	12-0-1		5-5-0	92.0 pts
MTL	8-4-1	9-3-1	10-2-1	11-1-1	12-0-1		5-5-0	92.0 pts
CAR	6-6-1	7-5-1	8-4-1	9-3-1	10-2-1		7-2-1	102.5 pts
PIT	6-6-1	7-5-1	8-4-1	9-3-1	10-2-1		6-2-2	101.2 pts
BUF	13-0-1	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx		2-6-2	77.4 pts
PHL	10-3-0	11-2-0	12-1-0	13-0-0	xxx		6-3-1	92.9 pts
NYR	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx		2-3-5	80.7 pts
FLA	12-1-0	13-0-0	xxx	xxx	xxx		4-2-4	87.6 pts

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Predicted Matchups:

TBL vs PHL
BOS vs TML

WSH vs PIT
CAR vs NYI

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

It'd be a huge boost if someone could step to the plate over the next 13 games and pop in 8 or 9 goals. Go on a tear.

It'd be even better if it's someone who has lagged behind the expectations, like Beau or Eberle.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

It'd be a huge boost if someone could step to the plate over the next 13 games and pop in 8 or 9 goals. Go on a tear.

It'd be even better if it's someone who has lagged behind the expectations, like Beau or Eberle.

I called for that in some thread, maybe this one. Bailey too, not goals but 10-11 points in 13 games would be nice.

 

[MattMartin]

I called for that in some thread, maybe this one. Bailey too, not goals but 10-11 points in 13 games would be nice.

We just don't have that "line" to count on anymore. It's balanced which is good and bad. I think the PP woes stem from this. Every night there seems to be someone stepping up but not one player/line in particular. We have 8 players with 10 or more goals and two players with 8 (Clutterbuck and Pulock). I hope and pray we can somehow get Panarin in the summer.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

We just don't have that "line" to count on anymore. It's balanced which is good and bad. I think the PP woes stem from this. Every night there seems to be someone stepping up but not one player/line in particular. We have 8 players with 10 or more goals and two players with 8 (Clutterbuck and Pulock). I hope and pray we can somehow get Panarin in the summer.

It will benefit s in the playoffs for sure, but sometimes you need something to bust a slump or get you going, and that comes from a guy who is consistently effective. Barzal has three goals since the break; that aint it.

 

[MattMartin]

It will benefit s in the playoffs for sure, but sometimes you need something to bust a slump or get you going, and that comes from a guy who is consistently effective. Barzal has three goals since the break; that aint it.

Surely, it also seems like many of our top 6 has been cold however. Here at the stats from the team since 2/1/19.

Barzal 3-7-10
Bailey 3-10-13
Lee 6-1-7
Nelson 5-8-13
Eberle 2-5-7
Beauviller 4-0-4

This is basically our top 6 since then and Beauvillier, Nelson, and Eberle have combined for 2 goals 0 assists in 6 games in March.



Bottom 6 players since 2/1/19

Cizikas 8-2-10
Filppula 4-4-8
Komarov 0-6-6
Clutterbuck 2-6-8
Martin 0-3-0

Defensemen


Pulock 5-9-14
Leddy 2-4-6
Mayfield 1-0-1
Boychuk 0-5-0
Pelech 3-4-7
Toews 2-6-8

Other players

Ladd 0-1-0 in 3 games
Kuhnackl 1-2-3 in 10 games
Dal Colle 1-2-3 in 10 games
Johnson 1-0-1 4 games
Hickey 0-0-0 in 2 games

Our record is 11-7-2 since then.

For argument sake our "top 6" has 23 goals and our "bottom" 6 has 15 goals. The only players that are "hot" are basically Pulock and Cizikas.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Surely, it also seems like many of our top 6 has been cold however. Here at the stats from the team since 2/1/19.

Barzal 3-7-10
Bailey 3-10-13
Lee 6-1-7
Nelson 5-8-13
Eberle 2-5-7
Beauviller 4-0-4

This is basically our top 6 since then and Beauvillier, Nelson, and Eberle have combined for 2 goals 0 assists in 6 games in March.



Bottom 6 players since 2/1/19

Cizikas 8-2-10
Filppula 4-4-8
Komarov 0-6-6
Clutterbuck 2-6-8
Martin 0-3-0

Defensemen


Pulock 5-9-14
Leddy 2-4-6
Mayfield 1-0-1
Boychuk 0-5-0
Pelech 3-4-7
Toews 2-6-8

Other players

Ladd 0-1-0 in 3 games
Kuhnackl 1-2-3 in 10 games
Dal Colle 1-2-3 in 10 games
Johnson 1-0-1 4 games
Hickey 0-0-0 in 2 games

Our record is 11-7-2 since then.

For argument sake our "top 6" has 23 goals and our "bottom" 6 has 15 goals. The only players that are "hot" are basically Pulock and Cizikas.

That's rough. Nelson has been pulling his weight which is encouraging because eye test told me he was.

 

[SI]

Listening to Trotz talk about players, who have defined roles made me think who are those players and the roles...

Ho-Sang fits for Eberle and Bailey (only top 6)

Dal Colle fits for Ladd and Beauvillier (2nd line and 3rd Line)

Kuhnackl fits for Ladd, Martin, Komarov, Clutterbuck (3rd line and 4th line, PK)

Johnston fits for Martin and Clutterbuck (4th line - no PK) If Cal is out, then Martin jumps into the PK and 3rd line Winger (Ladd or Dal Colle replace him on the PP)

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Listening to Trotz talk about players, who have defined roles made me think who are those players and the roles...

Ho-Sang fits for Eberle and Bailey (only top 6)

Dal Colle fits for Ladd and Beauvillier (2nd line and 3rd Line)

Kuhnackl fits for Ladd, Martin, Komarov, Clutterbuck (3rd line and 4th line, PK)

Johnston fits for Martin and Clutterbuck (4th line - no PK) If Cal is out, then Martin jumps into the PK and 3rd line Winger (Ladd or Dal Colle replace him on the PP)

It's really that simple, players have their roles.

I've said it a thousand times, you don't sub Alan Quine in when cizikas is hurt. Doesn't help in the D zone or PK.

 

[Islanders4Cups]

Listening to Trotz talk about players, who have defined roles made me think who are those players and the roles...

Ho-Sang fits for Eberle and Bailey (only top 6)

Dal Colle fits for Ladd and Beauvillier (2nd line and 3rd Line)

Kuhnackl fits for Ladd, Martin, Komarov, Clutterbuck (3rd line and 4th line, PK)

Johnston fits for Martin and Clutterbuck (4th line - no PK) If Cal is out, then Martin jumps into the PK and 3rd line Winger (Ladd or Dal Colle replace him on the PP)

I like this post and agree with most of it although I see Ladd and Dal Colle with similar roles and Ho Sang and Beauvillier with similar roles.

It is why you don’t see Ho Sang replace Clutterbuck for instance.

 

[JJA86]

Updated magic number is 19 I believe. If Montreal were to lose in regulation tonight, it would go down to 17 with a shot to get it to 13 on Thursday (This would mean 1 game above NHL .500 the rest of the way would clinch it. Fingys crossed! Although the standings are tight and you can never get too comfortable, and given that we spent a while in first place so just getting in won't feel as good, we're still in a very strong position. Need to get a little win streak going.

I believe the magic number is 18. CBJ and MTL are tied for last spot and play each other head on. Someone mathematically must miss at least one point