Prospect Info: The Prospect Thread (Part XXXIV)

[MS]

your take that jim was only succeeding because he was failing reminded me of catch 22.

which in turn reminded me of orr. who is sort of a benning like character and who ultimately prevailed against catch 22.

that's all there was to it. sorry you didn't enjoy the reference.

Your statement of 'everyone thought he was a complete idiot but he had a great plan he was executing perfectly' seemed to be a pretty direct allusion to Benning and the stealth tank theory, which I have little patience for.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Your statement of 'everyone thought he was a complete idiot but he had a great plan he was executing perfectly' seemed to be a pretty direct allusion to Benning and the stealth tank theory, which I have little patience for.

someone has a legit theory that benning deliberately drafted slow bloomers like juolevi and virtanen to buy himself more draft years?

really?

 

[CanaFan]

By that logic, the Oilers should have a super deep prospect pool with all their 30-ish overall 2nd round picks from their decade of failure. 30-36-ish round picks have very little guarantee they'll turn out well at all.

It seems like we've done pretty well with later picks the last few years. Better than any time that I can remember.

Well ya they should. The fact that they don’t is why their rebuild is widely considered one of the most mismanaged in recent history.

Look I’m not saying we haven’t made some good looking picks - I’ve said Gaudette and Tryamkin, while Dipietro looks very promising and Pettersson looks to be a great pick even for a #5. I’m just trying to point out that this “wow can you recall when our prospect pool looked THIS good” needs to be viewed in the appropriate context. Some of it is some astute picks, but a part of it is also the result of 3 bottom six finishes (2 of which were under Benning’s stewardship).

 

[drax0s]

Look I’m not saying we haven’t made some good looking picks - I’ve said Gaudette and Tryamkin, while Dipietro looks very promising and Pettersson looks to be a great pick even for a #5. I’m just trying to point out that this “wow can you recall when our prospect pool looked THIS good” needs to be viewed in the appropriate context. Some of it is some astute picks, but a part of it is also the result of 3 bottom six finishes (2 of which were under Benning’s stewardship).

Sure, part of it is, but part of it isn't. We've drafted well and have a solid pool of prospects. I don't get why every time this is pointed out, someone comes back with "Yeah, but Virtanen or Juolevi - see? Benning bad!".

The 2014 draft we've had nearly *4* players play 50 games. From a CanucksArmy article analyzing drafting from 2008-2013, the Canucks had only 7 players reach that milestone over a *5 year span*. Add in 2015 and I think it's a pretty sure fire bet that Boeser and Gaudette are likely to reach that milestone too which means that in 2 years we've nearly matched what the Canucks previously didn't hit in 5 years.

We've drafted well recently and our prospect pool shows it. It's not entirely because of top 5 picks.

 

[Bad Goalie]

How do you guys hyperventilating over Pettersson and Dahlen's play in Sweden feel about Rodin?

I'll wait for the responses.

 

[Pip]

Rodin did it at a much older age, making it far less impressive.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Sure, part of it is, but part of it isn't. We've drafted well and have a solid pool of prospects. I don't get why every time this is pointed out, someone comes back with "Yeah, but Virtanen or Juolevi - see? Benning bad!".

The 2014 draft we've had nearly *4* players play 50 games. From a CanucksArmy article analyzing drafting from 2008-2013, the Canucks had only 7 players reach that milestone over a *5 year span*. Add in 2015 and I think it's a pretty sure fire bet that Boeser and Gaudette are likely to reach that milestone too which means that in 2 years we've nearly matched what the Canucks previously didn't hit in 5 years.

We've drafted well recently and our prospect pool shows it. It's not entirely because of top 5 picks.

Meh the Canucks prospect pool is okay but sorely lacking in top-end talent outside of maybe Demko and the Defense is a mess, especially if Tryamkin is gone for good.

 

[CanaFan]

Sure, part of it is, but part of it isn't. We've drafted well and have a solid pool of prospects. I don't get why every time this is pointed out, someone comes back with "Yeah, but Virtanen or Juolevi - see? Benning bad!".

The 2014 draft we've had nearly *4* players play 50 games. From a CanucksArmy article analyzing drafting from 2008-2013, the Canucks had only 7 players reach that milestone over a *5 year span*. Add in 2015 and I think it's a pretty sure fire bet that Boeser and Gaudette are likely to reach that milestone too which means that in 2 years we've nearly matched what the Canucks previously didn't hit in 5 years.

We've drafted well recently and our prospect pool shows it. It's not entirely because of top 5 picks.

Well it’s hard to be too thrilled about some guys who *might* play in the NHL when we are passing over guys who are first line players in the NHL right now.

Prospect lists ebb and flow. Seeing that translate into actual NHL talent is another thing. And that’s why the context of having these high picks is important to recognize. By all rights we should have 2/3’s of a 1st line drafted already. That would be much more impressive than a list of guys that might make the NHL someday.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Well it’s hard to be too thrilled about some guys who *might* play in the NHL when we are passing over guys who are first line players in the NHL right now.

Prospect lists ebb and flow. Seeing that translate into actual NHL talent is another thing. And that’s why the context of having these high picks is important to recognize. By all rights we should have 2/3’s of a 1st line drafted already. That would be much more impressive than a list of guys that might make the NHL someday.

IKR? I'm getting very annoyed with the guys I wanted right after Canuck picks having great NHL careers while Canuck players struggle to be regulars in pro hockey.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Rodin did it at a much older age, making it far less impressive.

Yeah, it's pretty hard to compare Rodin with Pettersson at this stage because at 19 Rodin was playing in the AHL, not Sweden.

 

[RealGudbranson]

Bad Goalie, Rodin split his 19 y/o season between Allsvenskan and SEL: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=120281 (Swe-1 may be junior, not Allsvenskan)

 

[Bad Goalie]

Bad Goalie, Rodin split his 19 y/o season between Allsvenskan and SEL: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=120281 (Swe-1 may be junior, not Allsvenskan)

Started his first season in the AHL at 19. Turned 20. The same as Dahlen is this season in Sweden. I keep reading he has a January out to the SHL or the AHL. Where do you think he will choose to go? No sarcasm, a serious question.

Pettersson is about to turn 19. He is still a human stick. Think that body will be able to handle "the Physicality" of NA next season? That was the reason he didn't even consider the Nylander family plan this season. I can't see that kind of growth between now and training camp next season. It's certainly not going to occur during the season other than natural growth if his growing is still taking place. My contention is that he will still not be NHL ready physically next season. Does he take the Dahlen route and spend the 2nd season in Sweden?

Rodin has been injury prone since his second year of pro hockey, yet won MVP of the League everyone says is fantastic playing in only 33 games. He's recovered from the knee injury that was never treated properly until this off season. Now he has a minor hamstring affliction. It appears the guy can never get healthy. He was the best 200 foot player the Comets ever iced in his 3 games last season and hasn't been healthy since. I'm in his corner chomping for him to get his **** together. If ever healthy, this guy is definitely a Canuck.

 

[krutovsdonut]

i am all over rodin getting a shot. he looked great on one leg a year ago.

 

[NuxFan09]

Uh Yeah, there's a huge difference between Pettersson and Rodin. Pettersson is being lauded everywhere in hockey circles and is a top prospect.

I get the point you're trying to make, Bad Goalie, but the hype over Pettersson is a different story. It's legitimate.

 

[Melvin]

Gaudette, Lind, Palmu, Tryamkin, Gadjovich, Dieptro, Demko.

All picks that aren’t in the first round is pretty damn good drafting.

One of those guys has played in the NHL and he was acquired late because of the exact flight-risk that he ended up being.

People continually being impressed by guys who were just drafted playing well in lower leagues 10 minutes after being drafted. It boggles my mind.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Started his first season in the AHL at 19. Turned 20. The same as Dahlen is this season in Sweden. I keep reading he has a January out to the SHL or the AHL. Where do you think he will choose to go? No sarcasm, a serious question.
.

Rodin turned 21 a month into his first year in the AHL.
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=7084

 

[Southern_Canuck]

Thu Oct 26

Europe

Vaxjo 7 Frolunda 3
Pettersson 3 goals (3rd, 4th, 5th), 2 assists

Assat 2 TPS 3 (OT)
Palmu 0 points
Juolevi 1 goal (2nd) (scored the OT goal)

OHL

Oshawa 4 Niagara 3 (SO)
Brassard 0 points, even

Windsor 0 North Bay 4
DiPietro 21 saves on 25 shots
McKenzie 0 points, even

S_C

 

[Southern_Canuck]

Fri Oct 27

Europe

Timra at Troja/Ljungby
Dahlen

NCAA

Michigan at Penn State 4pm
Lockwood

Northeastern at UMass Lowell 4:15pm
Gaudette

OHL

Windsor at Sudbury 4pm
DiPietro
Candella

Owen Sound at Kitchener 4:30pm
Gadjovich

Peterborough at Oshawa 4:30pm
Brassard

WHL

Calgary at Lethbridge 6pm
Stukel

Tri-City at Kelowna 7pm
Lind

S_C

 

[Szechwan]

Comparisons aside, I think Rodin is pretty high in the organization with regards to pure skill level. That said, whether he'll ever be able to make use of it is another matter. Missing essentially an entire year of hockey and then starting the next season with another (if minor) injury does not bode well for player development.

This org has time though, and players like Rodin are worth being patient with because it's no fault of work ethic or skill that he's struggled. If he can string together a couple healthy years in North America I think he'll absolutely be an NHL player.

 

[vancityluongo]

what exactly does that mean? that he should not be happy it's happening? that it's not unusual for the canucks? that the amount of good prospect news we've had recently is not impressive? i don't follow the point of your grinchiness.

As CanaFan correctly alluded to, it was a literal direct answer to "what happened to the Canuck prospect pool?"

Answer: they finally seem to have hit on one of their top-6 draft picks, kept the high associated second round pick for once, got gifted a fluke second rounder and made good picks there too.

possible wjc selection to team canada is a very positive thing for a d+1 2nd or 3rd round pick and is not "bound to happen" . it's a lot less likely to happen than an american wjc selection for a 1st rounder, which is close to automatic. also, schroeder's wjc career is an outlier. every other player in the top 30 on that list born in the last 50 years had a solid nhl career except jordan.

When did I say bound to happen? Also, not sure what you mean about American first rounders, but I wasn't touting the fact that Schroeder made that team; it's that he is the scoring leader amongst all players to ever make that team. Slight difference. And Schroeder is in the top tier of all players, not just Americans (you'll see he's above Henrik Sedin for example). So as you so eloquently state below:

i am still waiting for vancityluongo for clarification of that. i think he took umbrage to the fact vanjack was somewhat dismissive of schroeder as a prospect while expressing excitement that gadjovic might get a wjc camp invite. it has to do with the fact schroeder did very well at the wjc but then didn't pan out as an nhl guy.

probably, the intended point would be to not count your chickens even if they are laying five eggs a day!

Ding ding ding. Five eggs, lol. Only one chicken is doing that.

Yann Sauve was once compared to Drew Doughty but that was in his D-1 year so figured you and others would take exception to that comment. The prospects VanJack listed as being an example of a poor prospect pool were just as highly touted in their d+1 years as the prospects we have now. It's an easy trap to fall into; I still distinctly remember getting hyped up in an M2B fashion about players as bad as Jurej Simek, Patrick Coloumbe and Tomas Mojzis. Compared to those guys, Schroeder seemed like a slam dunk. People here compared him and Hodgson to Toews and Kane.

So point is, as far as prospect pools go, this probably still isn't any sort of golden age. Doesn't mean we shouldn't be excited or hope that it turns out better this time.

 

[vancityluongo]

Sure, part of it is, but part of it isn't. We've drafted well and have a solid pool of prospects. I don't get why every time this is pointed out, someone comes back with "Yeah, but Virtanen or Juolevi - see? Benning bad!".

The 2014 draft we've had nearly *4* players play 50 games. From a CanucksArmy article analyzing drafting from 2008-2013, the Canucks had only 7 players reach that milestone over a *5 year span*. Add in 2015 and I think it's a pretty sure fire bet that Boeser and Gaudette are likely to reach that milestone too which means that in 2 years we've nearly matched what the Canucks previously didn't hit in 5 years.

We've drafted well recently and our prospect pool shows it. It's not entirely because of top 5 picks.

In those five years the Canucks were a contender. I wish they had even less prospect "hits" during that period and traded every pick to try and win a Cup. Using hindsight, are we better off having drafted Brendan Gaunce in 2012 or should we have been all-in on trading for Jeff Carter? Even though this is a prospect based forum, "number of prospects with over 50 games" is not a terrific proxy for organizational success.

People point out Virtanen or Juolevi because it's like blowing $100 at the casino and then being happy you found a $5 bill on the ground. The loss of value from that initial mistake is insurmountable unless they're finding Zetterberg or Benn type players in the later rounds, and we have no indication yet that's what Gaudette or Palmu are. Using that 2014 draft as the example; would you trade Pettersson for Virtanen, Demko, Tryamkin and Forsling?

That's not to completely dismiss that they've made some potentially astute lower round picks.

 

[Mudshark50]

Thu Oct 26

Europe

Vaxjo 7 Frolunda 3
Pettersson 3 goals (3rd, 4th, 5th), 2 assists

Assat 2 TPS 3 (OT)
Palmu 0 points
Juolevi 1 goal (2nd) (scored the OT goal)

OHL

Oshawa 4 Niagara 3 (SO)
Brassard 0 points, even

Windsor 0 North Bay 4
DiPietro 21 saves on 25 shots
McKenzie 0 points, even

S_C

That's impressive.

 

[drax0s]

In those five years the Canucks were a contender. I wish they had even less prospect "hits" during that period and traded every pick to try and win a Cup. Using hindsight, are we better off having drafted Brendan Gaunce in 2012 or should we have been all-in on trading for Jeff Carter? Even though this is a prospect based forum, "number of prospects with over 50 games" is not a terrific proxy for organizational success.

Absolutely. I would've sold the farm instead of trying to pick up cheap bargains like Pahlsson and Roy.

People point out Virtanen or Juolevi because it's like blowing $100 at the casino and then being happy you found a $5 bill on the ground. The loss of value from that initial mistake is insurmountable unless they're finding Zetterberg or Benn type players in the later rounds, and we have no indication yet that's what Gaudette or Palmu are.

No idea what Palmu and Gaudette are going to be at the NHL level, but Boeser is damn well sure looking like he's a hit at 23 overall. I know it's only 9 games or so into the year, but he's matching Nylander and Ehlers in PPG right now.

You also conveniently forgot about McCann in that 2014 draft. Would I trade Virtanen, McCann, Demko, Tryamkin and Forsling for Ehlers? I'd have to think long and hard about that and in the end I'd probably say no. Demko is looking like Schneider. Tryamkin super impressed in the time he was here. Forsling is holding down a top4 D spot. Virtanen is struggling but has great shot metrics and McCann had 5 pts in 7 games before being put on IR. Is Ehlers worth that package?

 

[vancityluongo]

Absolutely. I would've sold the farm instead of trying to pick up cheap bargains like Pahlsson and Roy.

No idea what Palmu and Gaudette are going to be at the NHL level, but Boeser is damn well sure looking like he's a hit at 23 overall. I know it's only 9 games or so into the year, but he's matching Nylander and Ehlers in PPG right now.

Boeser has already surpassed every mid-20s pick the Canucks have made since Ryan Kesler, no question. But that only makes up for them passing on Konecny to get him. It doesn't absolve the Nylander/Ehlers miss.

You also conveniently forgot about McCann in that 2014 draft. Would I trade Virtanen, McCann, Demko, Tryamkin and Forsling for Ehlers? I'd have to think long and hard about that and in the end I'd probably say no. Demko is looking like Schneider. Tryamkin super impressed in the time he was here. Forsling is holding down a top4 D spot. Virtanen is struggling but has great shot metrics and McCann had 5 pts in 7 games before being put on IR. Is Ehlers worth that package?

No, because quality > quantity, always. If Demko pans out to be Schneider (and I'm hopeful that he'll at least be a strong starter, if not a top-5 goalie like Schneider), then you consider that package for an Ehlers but at this time it's still a no.

A middle-6 winger, middle-6 center, starting goalie, second pairing defenseman and third pairing defenseman just doesn't land a star player. You need elite or close to elite pieces. Thought about in terms of players who were actually traded, none of Taylor Hall, PK Subban, Seth Jones, Shea Weber or Ryan Johansen could have been acquired for that above package. Ehlers/Nylander alone gets you damn close to all but Subban.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Yann Sauve was once compared to Drew Doughty but that was in his D-1 year so figured you and others would take exception to that comment. The prospects VanJack listed as being an example of a poor prospect pool were just as highly touted in their d+1 years as the prospects we have now. It's an easy trap to fall into; I still distinctly remember getting hyped up in an M2B fashion about players as bad as Jurej Simek, Patrick Coloumbe and Tomas Mojzis. Compared to those guys, Schroeder seemed like a slam dunk. People here compared him and Hodgson to Toews and Kane..

this paragraph should be stickied at the top of every page of every prospect thread.