The Pavel Zacha mistake

[Josepho]

Guess NJ shouldn’t have taken Hischier either...

Hischier was at least well above P/G and that draft had a weaker top 5 than usual.

But the most impressive players statistically were probably Heiskanen and Pettersson, and both of them ended up working out also.

 

[Boy Hedican]

Crazy, but it happens. I was high on Zacha for the Sharks and in hindsight am so happy we went with Meier.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Guess NJ shouldn’t have taken Hischier either...

Pretty huge difference in 86 and 34pts...

 

[chet1926]

Looking back they made a poor decision, but it's all hindsight. Zacha looked like a solid pick at the time, it hasn't panned out. Misses happen all the time. It sucks but you have to accept it and learn from your mistake.

But if we are talking that draft the team that really blew it was Boston. 3 picks in a row they take DeBrusk and two guys that haven't played a NHL game. And the next 3 picks were Barzal, Connor and Chabot. That's really blowing it.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I think it's probably a hockey IQ issue at this point. It wouldn't be such a big deal if that draft weren't stacked. Hey, at least you didn't whiff on two first round picks like Boston.

 

[DickSmehlik]

Perhaps starting him in the NHL was a mistake.

I think people forget how hard it is to go from amateur hockey, straight to the NHL.

 

[Tripod]

You guys picked two better players than us in the 2015 1st round, and both after PZ

Maybe more to come too...Sandstrom, Vorobyev, Kase, Marody....undrafted Myers.



Honestly though, I think demoting Zacha was a good move. Let him regain some confidence offensively and see if it translates to the NHL. I would leave him down there for awhile to make sure he gets that chip on his shoulder and hopefully uses it to rebound.


He is still only 21.

Side note: only 3 players from that 1st round have yet to play a game....and 2 of them are Boston Bruins. They other is goalie Samsonov.

 

[TeddyBare]

Vancouver made the exact same mistake as you guys one year earlier with the 6th pick.

Scouts still struggle to notice if a player playing well in junior is because of his size or skill.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Gagner was on a line with Patrick Kane, Nash played in the BCHL and Hamill had a relatively similar P/G as Couture. Context helps, especially with someone like Barrett Hayton when Morgan Frost was getting all the ice time on his team.

If you want me to be more specific, I guess we can make it a rule of thumb not to draft players who can't go P/G in the CHL in the top 10 with MAYBE the exception of guys like Hayton.

Ryan Johansen was under a PPG and Columbus reached for him. It was the right pick (Neiderreiter, Skinner and Connolly) were next. Again, nothing is obvious.

Ryan Strome vastly outscored Mark Scheifele.

Nail Yakupov more than tripled Chris Tierney's production; who is better today?

Bo Horvat had very similar numbers predraft to Zacha and was under a PPG.

 

[Critical13]

Looking back they made a poor decision, but it's all hindsight. Zacha looked like a solid pick at the time, it hasn't panned out. Misses happen all the time. It sucks but you have to accept it and learn from your mistake.

But if we are talking that draft the team that really blew it was Boston. 3 picks in a row they take DeBrusk and two guys that haven't played a NHL game. And the next 3 picks were Barzal, Connor and Chabot. That's really blowing it.

I thank baby Jesus for that nightly I can't imagine if they had their current team but also Barzal and Chabot/Connor. Just...yikes.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Perhaps starting him in the NHL was a mistake.

I think people forget how hard it is to go from amateur hockey, straight to the NHL.

This is I think the big kick in the pants regarding Zacha. At the end of his D+1 season he had a killer 2nd half + playoffs after recovering from a concussion. It appeared as though there wasn't anything left for him in juniors, but he clearly wasn't NHL ready.

A year in the AHL would have done wonders for him but he wasn't eligible because of that stupid transfer rule. He went from playing teenagers to playing the Penguins and Capitals in just a few months. Some guys can make that transition but other guys really struggle.

 

[Icebreakers]

Zacha reminds me of the Brett Connolly pick in 2010. Purely drafted because of d-1 draft hype, and both players were injured that season. Sometimes it works well (Rielly, somewhat Galchenyuk), but you have to take a player who dominated in his draft season.

 

[tellermine]

I did see Pavel few times in junior tournaments and he was really good.

There is,allways that roll of badluck.
Still, maby he can deliver it still?

Havent seen him to mutch in NHL.

 

[TheKingPin]

Not coming away with an elite talent in the 2003 draft cost the Rangers the Cup in 2014.

This is where it gets scary. Teams are so close to each other that it really does come down to a player plus or minus. I would think not just the cup final but a lot more would have been different if we didn’t lose the lottery and Kane.

You guys picked two better players than us in the 2015 1st round, and both after PZ

Seems that way. Both seem to be very impactful players. It’s a tough one for jersey for sure.

 

[Dicky113]

Former Devils scouting director David Conte was around for 3 Cups and 5 Finals appearances with NJ.
He deserves a lot of credit, especially in the 90s.

But late in his tenure, his drafting was a complete disaster.

Specifically his choice of Pavel Zacha at 6th overall in 2015.

PZ was demoted to the Devils AHL team (Binghamton) last week after getting no points in the team's first 10 games.

His lack of production so far in the NHL has been perplexing, alarming and extremely disappointing.

PZ has good NHL size, skates well and seems to have the tools to be an effective NHL 2nd liner, at worst 3rd liner.

Now, at 6th overall, we were expecting (for good reason) a 1st line forward for many years.

The 2015 draft was very deep, the first round has produced many players who are having excellent NHL careers already.

Prior to that draft, the Devils board voted for Barzal for our 6th overall pick.
Many others preferred Provorov, some wanted Connor, Rantanan or Werenski, along with Zacha.

Over 3 years later, it's stunning to see how poorly Zacha has done so far compared to his peers in the 2015 draft.
2015 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com

Only Strome can possibly be considered a bigger disappointment at this point in time from that draft.

The Devils are suffering the consequences of whiffing on this pick right now, they desperately need a 2nd line center (or even wing) that can consistently produce goals/points.

Or a 1st pairing left-handed defenseman (Provorov/Werenski)

Even late first rounders such as Konecny and Boeser have been much better let alone 2nd rounder Aho.

Ray Shero and his hand-picked scouting director, Paul Castron, have done a solid job in rebuilding the organization's prospect pool in the last few years, although the McLeod pick remains to be seen.

But the Zacha Mistake is haunting the club right now and will for many years to come.

At least you didn’t pick Zacha, Zboril and Senyshyn back to back to f***ing back and leave most of those other players mentioned on the board.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Busts happen man, its a simple as that. They're 18 year old kids, not 22 year old men like the NFL. Impossible to guarantee a homerun, even with the 1st overall pick.

Agree with your point, but success in the top of the draft is way better in the NHL than NFL.

 

[Bonzo111]

Agree with your point, but success in the top of the draft is way better in the NHL than NFL.

I guess so, I'm not sure of the numbers. I think the hardest part is the QB's and predicting if they can succeed so a lot of QB's go in the first round because they're so valuable.

 

[YEM]

Seriously though. The Devils are one of the better drafting teams in the league the past 3 decades, along with the Lightning, Flyers, the Blues and the Kings.

nah
they've got quite a few whiffs in the first round in recent history:
Niclas Bergfors
Matthew Corrente
Mattias Tedenby
Jacob Josefson
Stefan Matteau
Zacha
and aside from round 1, only one good mid-round value pick:
Henrique

 

[Bonzo111]

Made up for it with the Hall trade and the Hischier lottery win (although EP is looking like a better talent). You can't always have your cake and eat it, too, unfortunately.

yeah no kidding.

 

[AfroThunder396]

nah
they've got quite a few whiffs in the first round in recent history:
Niclas Bergfors
Matthew Corrente
Mattias Tedenby
Jacob Josefson
Stefan Matteau
Zacha
and aside from round 1, only one good mid-round value pick:
Henrique

Miles Wood was a 4th rounder under Lou/Conte. Alex Kerfoot was a 5th rounder we drafted that ended up going UFA to Colorado and doing pretty well there.

Your point certainly stands though.

 

[Doublechin]

I remember a user named DEVILS_ALL_THE_WAY or something like that that used to hate on him and call him a future bust while Devils fans would persecute him LOL. I personally always thought he was right.

 

[playasRus]

Can't be mad over this one. Lots of people thought Zacha was going to be the next flashy european forward. Like other have said, every team has a bad or worst pick than Zacha, AND it's not clear if he'll bust yet.

Try Brian Lee over Kopitar.

Sometimes you get a Forsberg at 6OA, sometimes you get a Filatov.

 

[ThorNton Apologist]

I may be in the minority but I think he turns it around and becomes a solid 40-50 point 2nd line center. He was very raw when drafted but the talent is there. I believe he fits that “takes longer to develop” type player and his development has already not been handled so perfectly. I wanted him to fall to the Sharks in 2015.

 

[puckpilot]

Around 40% of 1st rounders truly bust. The rest make a career of it, and not necessarily as stars. Look around the league and take note of all the 3rd and 4th liners and 5th and 6th dmen that were selected in the first round, some very high.

If every 1st pick turned into a star, every team would get a new 1st or 2nd line or 1st or 2nd d pair every two to three years. But that's just not reality.

Special players are special for a reason. If everyone was special, then nobody is.

How Many Draft Picks Make It to the NHL?

 

[lomiller1]

Specifically his choice of Pavel Zacha at 6th overall in 2015.

PZ was demoted to the Devils AHL team (Binghamton) last week after getting no points in the team's first 10 games.

His lack of production so far in the NHL has been perplexing, alarming and extremely disappointing.

PZ has good NHL size, skates well and seems to have the tools to be an effective NHL 2nd liner, at worst 3rd liner.

Now, at 6th overall, we were expecting (for good reason) a 1st line forward for many years.

NHL scouting departments systematically underestimate productivity. The fact is that with relatively few exceptions, if a player can’t produce in the CHL they don’t have a lot of success in the NHL. Scouts tell themselves things like "he projects as a 2-way player so don’t worry about the lack of productivity", but the truth is that the CHL is an easy league for players with NHL talent. It’s very rare for players who are not productive in the CHL to truly become impact players at the NHL level, and when it does happen you can usually find some reasons why the player didn’t really produce a lot.


IMO scouts really need to change their mindset when looking at CHL players who are big strong and fast like Zacha was, but don’t show it on the scoresheet. Instead of looking at that and saying "that projects well into the NHL", they need to ask themselves "what’s missing, why can this guy produce even though he’s bigger, stronger and faster than everyone else on the ice".