The Pavel Zacha mistake

[chunkylover53]

Zacha was pretty high in the redflag area. He couldn't even dominate jrs in his draft year, yet a 6th ov in one of the strongest drafts in a decade was used on it.

Stop using high picks on big guys who "just haven't put it together yet" like you should not invest high picks on so called "defensive defensemen"

 

[General Disarray]

They lost on that draft pick but they also got Hall for Larsson a few years later. Think of it as Larsson + Barzal/Prorovov/Connor for Hall + Zacha and the Devils come out ahead.

 

[A91]

Ouch

 

[Csonked Out]

Why do 6th overall picks seem to suck so much.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

They lost on that draft pick but they also got Hall for Larsson a few years later. Think of it as Larsson + Barzal/Prorovov/Connor for Hall + Zacha and the Devils come out ahead.

They also lucked out and moved up 4 spots in the lottery and got Hischier.

 

[Devils Dominion]

add Colin White to the growing list of 2015 drafted players that are producing more than Zacha

 

[zharkenby]

Update: his scoring this season is on par with Ben Lovejoy.

Our second line center (allegedly) has 1 more point than Ben Lovejoy.

Points in 3 games this entire season. Worst pick of the draft?

 

[A91]

Update: his scoring this season is on par with Ben Lovejoy.

Our second line center (allegedly) has 1 more point than Ben Lovejoy.

Points in 3 games this entire season. Worst pick of the draft?

Depends on how Strome turns out but yea Zacha is probably the worst pick. Especially considering Provorov, Werenski, Meier and Rantanen were the next 4 picks. All all-stars and one Art Ross/Hart contender.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Pretty much every HFBoards fan base wanted Barzal over the guy they picked lol

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

In Lawson Crouse’s draft year, there was talk of him being top 5, even though his Jr production kind of sucked. I looked at the past 10 drafts before that, and checked for all top-10 picks who were F, played in the CHL, and went less than PPG in their draft year. The results were pretty damning. Im pretty sure out of the top-10 CHL picks who were F and went sub PPG, Johansen was the only one that amounted to anything.

 

[Critical13]

Why do 6th overall picks seem to suck so much.

Was trying to think of who you were talking about, then I saw where Virtanen was picked

 

[Devils Dominion]

Update: his scoring this season is on par with Ben Lovejoy.

Our second line center (allegedly) has 1 more point than Ben Lovejoy.

Points in 3 games this entire season. Worst pick of the draft?

Thanks for bumping the Pavel Busta thread.

Forget about Barzal, the 2nd player the Islanders drafted later in the round is a much better player than PZ.

Send him down to Bingo

 

[Devils Dominion]

Depends on how Strome turns out but yea Zacha is probably the worst pick. Especially considering Provorov, Werenski, Meier and Rantanen were the next 4 picks. All all-stars and one Art Ross/Hart contender.

He's the worst pick of the draft hands down

 

[Icebreakers]

In Lawson Crouse’s draft year, there was talk of him being top 5, even though his Jr production kind of sucked. I looked at the past 10 drafts before that, and checked for all top-10 picks who were F, played in the CHL, and went less than PPG in their draft year. The results were pretty damning. Im pretty sure out of the top-10 CHL picks who were F and went sub PPG, Johansen was the only one that amounted to anything.

Bo Horvat was sub ppg as well. Turned out pretty good.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Elaborating on my previous post except ill go back 15 years from 2015:

CHL Fs picked in top 10 who went less or equal to PPG in draft year

2015: Zacha
2014: Virtanen
2013: Horvat
2010: Johansen, Niedereitter
2006: Staal
2005: Pouliot, Setoguchi
2000: Alexeev

First, there arent many players who fit the criteria and maybe there’s a good reason for it. The only bonafide first liners on that list is Johansen. Horvat and Staal are/were elite 2Cs, with potential for Horvat to improve. The rest are all solid bottom 6ers with the exception of Alexeev who is a straight up bust.

So in conclusion, only one bonafide first liner out of nine with potential for two with Horvat. Expanding to top 20 picks could yield more info. Maybe ill do that later.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Zacha just turned 21 for goodness' sake. So what if they sent him back down to the AHL. I think it might be too early to say it was a huge mistake. He could still have some potential and be a useful player.

 

[King Mapes]

Could be worse. Could be 1 overall and Yakupov.

Except that draft wasn't that good anyways.

This draft had so much talent in the top 10.

The guys taken after him were Provorov, Werenski, Meier and Rantanen. At the top of course was McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner and Hanifin. So that draft was pretty loaded.

 

[Passchendaele]

In Lawson Crouse’s draft year, there was talk of him being top 5, even though his Jr production kind of sucked. I looked at the past 10 drafts before that, and checked for all top-10 picks who were F, played in the CHL, and went less than PPG in their draft year. The results were pretty damning. Im pretty sure out of the top-10 CHL picks who were F and went sub PPG, Johansen was the only one that amounted to anything.

The thing about Johansen though, is that he basically came out of nowhere.

Had unimpressive stats the previous season in Jr. A, went through a major growth spurt and made an instant impact on a solid WHL team.

Late-bloomers tend to do really well for some reason (Giroux, Seguin, Bergeron, and to an extent, Laine).

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Late-bloomers tend to do really well for some reason (Giroux, Seguin, Bergeron, and to an extent, Laine).

I remember Huberdeau was a big riser in his draft year, too.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Zacha has no hockey sense.

It's like watching a faster, dumber Anisimov.

 

[DL44]

Why do 6th overall picks seem to suck so much.

I think because it’s the point in the draft where the pre-draft elite drops off...
I.e. you have a general top 4-5 prospects each yr, then it goes all over the place with teams rankings and some begin to overthink and project more... so some teams hit and others miss starting at this particular point..
(Guessing)

 

[Battle Lin]

for every great pick, you make like 5 mistakes, so many mistakes are made at the draft...it just happens, drafting is super hard, more will come

 

[93LEAFS]

Pretty much every HFBoards fan base wanted Barzal over the guy they picked lol

I would say after 5. Most people pretty strongly believed that there was a consensus for the top 5 (McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner, Hanifin), with McDavid a lock at 1 and Eichel a lock at 2. The real interest started at 3, and then at 6. Most drafts people walk in expecting certain things to happen. For example, 2016 the top 2 picks were locks, and people expected the 3rd to be, and 4 and 5 to be Tkachuk and PLD, and then the draft would become disorganized chaos at 6 (although in this case, Columbus and Vancouver went against script).

 

[93LEAFS]

for every great pick, you make like 5 mistakes, so many mistakes are made at the draft...it just happens, drafting is super hard, more will come

Most teams don't botch the 6th overall in a stacked draft. Yes, when you are talking about drafting outside the top 10, you rarely hit on good players, but you can't mess-up top 10 picks consistently and expect to recover late. The only team I can think of that has overcome this is Tampa, who drafted to disappointments in the top 10 (Connolly and Koekkeok) in recent years but have been able to balance it out by drafting top 5 quality players later in the draft (Kucherov and Point),

Not hitting on 3rd to 7th rounders consistently is just expected, they are hardly mistakes, just the product of the draft. You can't apply the 5 mistakes for one great pick to the top 10 of the draft, or even the first round in general.

 

[135ace]

Most teams don't botch the 6th overall in a stacked draft. Yes, when you are talking about drafting outside the top 10, you rarely hit on good players, but you can't mess-up top 10 picks consistently and expect to recover late. The only team I can think of that has overcome this is Tampa, who drafted to disappointments in the top 10 (Connolly and Koekkeok) in recent years but have been able to balance it out by drafting top 5 quality players later in the draft (Kucherov and Point),

Not hitting on 3rd to 7th rounders consistently is just expected, they are hardly mistakes, just the product of the draft. You can't apply the 5 mistakes for one great pick to the top 10 of the draft, or even the first round in general.

The problem I've had with the Zacha pick (besides preferring Barzal over him) was that we were rebuilding and needing help at all positions and Provorov was not only a safer pick, but also BPA. A rebuilding team can't go out and not take BPA, especially when it's a guy like Zacha who doesn't even really project to be a 1C or is at best a huge gamble to become that.