The once-new "what's going on with Panarin" thread

[EspenK]

I was a big proponent of trading him at the beginning of the season assuming he would be traded to a team with which he had agreed to sign an extension. My presumed return was a top 6 roster player, a prospect and a pick.

Because that appears to have been a pipe dream I now am in favor of waiting until the deadline and if the team is still top 5 or 6 in the league holding on to him. If they slump and are on the cusp of the playoffs I'd trade him for the best offer - hopefully a 1st and a good prospect or a couple of picks.

New pipe dream is Colorado is in the thick of things and would trade Ottawa's #1 and something else for him.

 

[major major]

If you were to reverse the situation, I am certain the Jackets would be one of the top teams linked to trying to acquire a rental Panarin in a trade.

Truth, and it cracks me up.

If we were in the same spot in the standings, but with yet another second liner and a spare 1st rounder, and Artemi was on some other club being floated as a rental, then this board would be strongly in favor of renting him. "Should the Jackets acquire Panarin?" would surely be a thread of its own. The consensus would be that a difference maker like that, who can help us win the division and give us a good chance of making some noise in the playoffs, is well worth the modest price.

Loss aversion is a powerful thing.

 

[major major]

I was a big proponent of trading him at the beginning of the season assuming he would be traded to a team with which he had agreed to sign an extension. My presumed return was a top 6 roster player, a prospect and a pick.

The triple P return, yes.

If you ask for a "top 6 player" you'll get a second-line caliber player, which we have no shortage of. The Jackets have a dozen players at .5 points per game or more (The Leafs have 7 IIRC). I think we could get a 3P return if you're fine with a second liner. But I think we should be specific that we're not interested in a trade unless we get a top line forward or a prospect that can be that.

Losing Panarin is devastation. Whether he walks for nothing or we get a second liner for him doesn't change that.

 

[Crede777]

The triple P return, yes.

If you ask for a "top 6 player" you'll get a second-line caliber player, which we have no shortage of. The Jackets have a dozen players at .5 points per game or more (The Leafs have 7 IIRC). I think we could get a 3P return if you're fine with a second liner. But I think we should be specific that we're not interested in a trade unless we get a top line forward or a prospect that can be that.

Losing Panarin is devastation. Whether he walks for nothing or we get a second liner for him doesn't change that.

Yes. There already is a shortage of minutes going around (see the Milano article). Throwing in more of the same doesn't help the team in any way.

But to get a top line player (not elite but ~65 points) requires a sign and trade. I just don't see any of the teams Panarin is supposedly interested in doing that. The smart thing for them is to either get him cheap or just wait and try to sign him in free agency without giving anything of value up.

The smartest thing for this team may well be risking losing him for nothing. This isn't a video game. You don't always have to maximize the value of assets in a vacuum especially if doing so would make your team worse in the short term.

 

[thebus88]

I'm really not sure at this point what would be best. Maybe there is a stronger possibility that he would stay that we don't know.

But, people's ideas here on the hypothetical return are dumb.

#1, I think the return would be quite a bit better than people think. No, your NOT gonna get a player AS GOOD or better than Panarin, obviously, but Jarmo ALSO DOESNT have to trade him for something that he thinks wouldn't help the team for the rest of the year and in the future. There are "plenty" of younger guys in the league that are considered 2nd line guys that COULD be considered 1st line guys with more of a opportunity. The idea that a 1st and 2nd round asset, or maybe even 2 1st round assets, wouldn't help the team is absolutely false. While it would be nice/better to have Panarin for the playoffs and the future, we have to realize that 18/19 isn't the last year for the CBJ, and that the team, even losing Panarin, is STILL on an upswing and will be going to the playoffs nearly every year in the near future.

#2, why are you people acting like whatever assets we could get for Panarin would essentially be "locked" on the roster and couldn't be "flipped" for a superior player?

 

[CBJx614]

So hypothetically - would you prefer to keep Panarin and make it into round 3 of the playoffs, or trade Panarin for a bunch of mediocre players and get bounced in round 1? I would value a few playoff victories far higher than a couple middle 6 NHL players. And that's not to say I think we can't win a few playoff rounds without Panarin, either. Obviously this is wildly hypothetical.

So we keep Panarin and make it to round 3. Great.


Does the team we field next season make it back to ECF without Panarin? Do we even make the playoffs?

Ideally the players we'd get back aren't done developing and can fit into the core of the team. I don't think whoever we trade for is going to save the team, but I'd much rather have a young player who fits the identity of the team and can contribute 40-50 pts with room left to grow.

Ideally we find a young forward who has some potential for more growth left and maybe some picks and prospects. Yes we're a young team and we're in win now mode, but you ALWAYS have to plan for the future.

 

[CBJx614]

I'm really not sure at this point what would be best. Maybe there is a stronger possibility that he would stay that we don't know.

But, people's ideas here on the hypothetical return are dumb.

#1, I think the return would be quite a bit better than people think. No, your NOT gonna get a player AS GOOD or better than Panarin, obviously, but Jarmo ALSO DOESNT have to trade him for something that he thinks wouldn't help the team for the rest of the year and in the future. There are "plenty" of younger guys in the league that are considered 2nd line guys that COULD be considered 1st line guys with more of a opportunity. The idea that a 1st and 2nd round asset, or maybe even 2 1st round assets, wouldn't help the team is absolutely false. While it would be nice/better to have Panarin for the playoffs and the future, we have to realize that 18/19 isn't the last year for the CBJ, and that the team, even losing Panarin, is STILL on an upswing and will be going to the playoffs nearly every year in the near future.

#2, why are you people acting like whatever assets we could get for Panarin would essentially be "locked" on the roster and couldn't be "flipped" for a superior player?

It's not often we agree, but I think we're on the same page here. I won't be upset if we lose Panarin for nothing though because I trust Jarmo and truly believe that he didn't get a good enough offer to make him move Panarin.

 

[Viqsi]

#2, why are you people acting like whatever assets we could get for Panarin would essentially be "locked" on the roster and couldn't be "flipped" for a superior player?

"Flip 'em for what you really want" is a common fallacy in trade discussions. It fails because as soon as you do it, everybody in the League is aware that you now have assets that you can't really make good use of (because, if we could, we wouldn't be talking about flipping them, we'd be considering them a fair return regardless), and subsequently will not give you fair value for what you have. You're basically artificially forcing yourself into a desperation situation when you do that.

If you're going to make a trade, make sure that at the end of the trade you have assets you can use. Otherwise, you're being ripped off. If a "flip" scenario is going to happen, make it a multi-team trade, or make sure you're buying then selling instead of selling then buying.

 

[thebus88]

"Flip 'em for what you really want" is a common fallacy in trade discussions. It fails because as soon as you do it, everybody in the League is aware that you now have assets that you can't really make good use of (because, if we could, we wouldn't be talking about flipping them, we'd be considering them a fair return regardless), and subsequently will not give you fair value for what you have. You're basically artificially forcing yourself into a desperation situation when you do that.

If you're going to make a trade, make sure that at the end of the trade you have assets you can use. Otherwise, you're being ripped off. If a "flip" scenario is going to happen, make it a multi-team trade, or make sure you're buying then selling instead of selling then buying.

No. Not everything you disagree with is a "fallacy".

Its quite simply the fact that the team that would want to acquire Panarin wouldn't have the EXACT assets Jarmo would be looking for.

A "3 way" trade could easily be worked out in this situation.

 

[Viqsi]

No. Not everything you disagree with is a "fallacy".

Its quite simply the fact that the team that would want to acquire Panarin wouldn't have the EXACT assets Jarmo would be looking for.

A "3 way" trade could easily be worked out in this situation.

If you're talking about planning out a 3-way trade in advance, rather than "just get what we can get and hope to sell for better later", that's a different concept entirely. That can work - it's not an automatic fail - but they're rare and difficult to make happen.

 

[thebus88]

If you're talking about planning out a 3-way trade in advance, rather than "just get what we can get and hope to sell for better later", that's a different concept entirely. That can work - it's not an automatic fail - but they're rare and difficult to make happen.

Here's the thing, trading Panarin because he wont be returning after the year should never be looked at like that. This idea is being pitched by some who argue he shouldn't be traded at any point that the team is doing well. That's just a very weak cliché with a couple negative connotations thrown in there. NOBODY is saying they should just take the 20-30th pick and call it a day. And NOBODY should think that Jarmo WOULD deal him away if he didn't think it would help the team or he didn't have a VERY good idea of a subsequent "3rd" trade partner.

NO we more than likely WILL NOT return a player of Panarin's caliber, however some of you need to look realistically at WHAT a player of Panarin's caliber WOULD return in a trade, even as a rental.

To say that the return we WOULD get if he was traded would not help the team after this year is bogus and borderline asinine, imo. To say that it would be hard to manage a separate or "3 way" trade to keep the loss of Panarin to an absolute minimum, with the ("extra") assets and cap room we would have gained could be looked at the same way.

I'm not saying I want to trade him, but again, people have to acknowledge this team was good, without/before Panarin AND Dubois.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[major major]

I suppose it is sort of news that Milstein and Artemi will have a meeting over the holiday. If they were 100% committed to no deals with anyone until July 1st then it would seem to be a very boring meeting. Though people do those.

I don't think Artemi being happy qualifies as news. I don't think the Jackets success on the ice pleasing Artemi is news either. He is most likely going to be playing on a weaker team a year from now, that's not his main concern.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I suppose it is sort of news that Milstein and Artemi will have a meeting over the holiday. If they were 100% committed to no deals with anyone until July 1st then it would seem to be a very boring meeting. Though people do those.

I don't think Artemi being happy qualifies as news. I don't think the Jackets success on the ice pleasing Artemi is news either. He is most likely going to be playing on a weaker team a year from now, that's not his main concern.

The meeting is with management, not Panarin.

 

[EspenK]

The meeting is with management, not Panarin.

Interesting.

Could be:

Start of an extension discussion
Trying to gauge management's thoughts on an in season trade
A list of where Bread would agree to sign an extension to help facilitate a trade
Nothing specific.

 

[MAHJ71]

I took it as, if there is no contract signed by the trade deadline, then a trade is inevitable. He doesn't really interpret his own meaning though.

The interesting stuff to me, is that some in the organization don't think he's leaving and his agent is visiting next month.

I'm assuming a December meeting with Milstein was always the plan.. to simply gauge if anything has changed, etc.

**trying to not get my hopes up** .... and a nice long win streak around that time would be an added bonus

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

The meeting discussion is simply so a hockey show has something to talk about.

 

[Ruudukkopupuset]

I'm assuming a December meeting with Milstein was always the plan.. to simply gauge if anything has changed, etc.

Surely they have to meet up on another Milstein customer Gavrikov's case at least since his deal with SKA will run out in few months. With Panarin's health they have already taken a huge gamble, opting not to a secure long-term deal.

Panarin's thinking reflects Eurasian ice hockey pyramid. Many cities in the NHL have more attractions than Columbus, be it then climate, wealth or another level of urbanism and luxury which all help you to build and sustain better teams inside a pyramid structure. Twice already he left the Columbus of Russia, Podolsk, in KHL to join the biggest clubs and resources imaginable in Kazan and St. Petersburgh. The third time was with Chicago Blackhawks dynasty. Fair and realistic thinking which all heavily play into the sporting side.

Not to mention that the lifestyle of sports starts in Russia is also otherwordly exuberant in luxury. For example the best Finnish footballer of his generation and the leading Eremenko clan footballer, Roman Eremenko, playing for a Moscow club was caught after a Champions league game of having sniffled cocaine in the previous weekend. It was a Wednesday game and no one had in Finland guessed before his two year ban that this model professional had other hobbies as well. Of course the NHL has no doping program or problems.

 

[major major]

Surely they have to meet up on another Milstein customer Gavrikov's case at least since his deal with SKA will run out in few months. With Panarin's health they have already taken a huge gamble, opting not to a secure long-term deal.

Panarin's thinking reflects Eurasian ice hockey pyramid. Many cities in the NHL have more attractions than Columbus, be it then climate, wealth or another level of urbanism and luxury which all help you to build and sustain better teams inside a pyramid structure. Twice already he left the Columbus of Russia, Podolsk, in KHL to join the biggest clubs and resources imaginable in Kazan and St. Petersburgh. The third time was with Chicago Blackhawks dynasty. Fair and realistic thinking which all heavily play into the sporting side.

Not to mention that the lifestyle of sports starts in Russia is also otherwordly exuberant in luxury. For example the best Finnish footballer of his generation and the leading Eremenko clan footballer, Roman Eremenko, playing for a Moscow club was caught after a Champions league game of having sniffled cocaine in the previous weekend. It was a Wednesday game and no one had in Finland guessed before his two year ban that this model professional had other hobbies as well. Of course the NHL has no doping program or problems.

This is just stereotypes.

Podolsk is a small industrial suburb. Columbus is much bigger, with a high standard of living. Artemi is frequently asked about this in Russian interviews - he clarified that most American cities, Columbus included, are all the same. It's not like Russia where you step back and forth from the first world to the second to the third.

 

[Ruudukkopupuset]

Podolsk is Columbus while Chicago is St. Petersburg. Tampa is рай, paradise. Which has very little do with quality of life in a city since if you have the resources you can live comfortably anywhere as Hussein, in a potato hole, and Bin Laden, in a compound, demonstrated so it aint' a question of choosing rating travel destinations.

Panarin played seven seasons in a league where (as is the norm) this kind of wealth, power and stature is allowed to compete rather freely which has in return formed clear hierarchy of clubs. Rather everywhere the big city or money teams rule in the long run. Even in the communist NHL.

Columbus has also since 2015 committed through signing and continuing Tortorella's vertical contract and Kekäläinen's anti meidän peli rhetoric to a Vitjaz like minnows mentality. It is a great departure from what Panarin experienced at AK Bars Kazan, SKA St. Petersburg and Chicago Blackhawks for six seasons.

 

[Cowumbus]

"Flip 'em for what you really want" is a common fallacy in trade discussions. It fails because as soon as you do it, everybody in the League is aware that you now have assets that you can't really make good use of (because, if we could, we wouldn't be talking about flipping them, we'd be considering them a fair return regardless), and subsequently will not give you fair value for what you have. You're basically artificially forcing yourself into a desperation situation when you do that.

If you're going to make a trade, make sure that at the end of the trade you have assets you can use. Otherwise, you're being ripped off. If a "flip" scenario is going to happen, make it a multi-team trade, or make sure you're buying then selling instead of selling then buying.

Didn’t the Sharks just flip a trade with Hoffman..

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Now contract numbers coming out for Panarin....

 

[EspenK]

If 8x11 gets it done, sign the damn deal. Too bad we can't go 8 1/2.

 

[Jovavic]

Those numbers are from the writers, not Panrian or his agent. I've been saying it would be that number for months but I don't have thousands of followers and space in a newspaper to fill up

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Those numbers are from the writers, not Panrian or his agent. I've been saying it would be that number for months but I don't have thousands of followers and space in a newspaper to fill up

Yes, we all know he's getting 10+ on the open market. That's not news.

The news is Panarin's camp DOES have a number. The Jackets DO have a meeting with them. Before hand, it was just speculation on what his number would be, even though we all knew it was 10+. This means the meeting, essentially, could be a negotiation between both parties on an extension. Which, obviously, means there's a chance he stays.