The old 1C, 1D, 1G analysis (hint: We're a long ways off)

[Mess]

#1C: Seguin
#1D: Hamilton
#1G: Rask

So instead of acquiring a #1C,#1D & #1G through the draft process Leafs former GMs traded them away instead believing they were making the Leafs better in process.

Now new management is tasked the job of correcting past mistakes and filling key roster primary positions, a task easier said then done.

The drafting of Nylander, Rielly and Bibeau now the best of the best in the system to try and achieve that.

 

[Antropovsky]

Got Rask too. Might want to put Steen up as a top 6 forward. Maybe Jay Harrison could be a good fit in the bottom pairing?

Don't forget about Stralman, who might be a decent 2nd pairing guy, an awesome 3rd pairing guy. Or Jimmy Hayes who is monster in front of the net, and has 13 goals and 20 points on the season. I think we shouldn't kept Beauchemin, he was a good leader, and really should've been our Captain... he's the image we want our youth to be around. Same with Komarov. Santorelli. Etc etc.


Say our GM's sat on their hands, this is kinda what the team could look like, nitpicking deals that worked/didn't work. It's not like it was difficult to nitpick though, trading a 1st round pick, when your team is a basement dweller, is an incredible risky play:

Steen deal was absurd. This entire board was in disbelief, for the most part.
Rask deal was absurd, this entire board was in disbelief, for the most part.

Both the Phaneuf deal and JVR deals made sense, as we didn't give up any picks or valuable youth. The JVR deal was much like our Steen deal, where we were in disbelief that we got JVR for just Schenn.



JVR Seguin Steen
Kadri Nylander Komarov
Santorelli Bozak Hayes
Winnik ----- -----k deal was absurd, this entire board was in disbelief, for the most part.

Rielly Beauchemin
Stralman Franson
Robidas Hamilton/Percy/Holzer

Bernier/Reimer


Above is again a nitpicked lineup (totally unfair on my part). Not incredible, but definitely better than what we have. If Nylander pans out, and Rielly than we could've been a very dangerous team.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

I believe the whole 1C 1D 1G bit is crap. This is a team game. You need multiple players doing there job. LAK yes they have all three but you know what their real strength is? They have Mike Richards playing the 4th line. They had such good goal tending that Jonathan Bernier was traded for essentially a bag of pucks. This team has depth out the ass acquired through good drafting and smart trades.

Now the leafs do not have that. Look who lines up on this teams second line around Kadri. Winnik and Santorelli are not exactly what I would call terrific finishing players. Hell even Horacheck puts Kadri shotgun to Phil, Bozak is still on the second line and he wont have Phil pumping his tires.

Now there is options. O'Rielly is available. If the asking price is one of Gardiner, Phanuef or Franson then that makes Bozak likely the leafs 3rd maybe 4th C. Thats pretty good depth now. Four lines with four good centres all capable of driving offense to some degree. This team has great winger depth. Lupul, Kessel and JVR are all capable of putting 30G+. Another speedy offensive defense man and a true shutdown guy like Beauchemin could do this team a world of wonders.

Now cap is going to be a problem going forward and I see this team needs to move one of Bozak or Lupul and probably Robidas as well. Idt Clarkson will go anywhere. Bring in another group of Marlies and see what this teams system has.

As for goal tending, we have two really good young goalies in net and another 3 great young prospects with the Marlies and Orlando. SKy isn't falling. Keep adding depth. Another C, another couple D and I think this team will be fine.

 

[senor martinez]

I don`t think if you necessarily need a number 1 C.

Montreal, Boston, Florida and the Rangers don`t have what we like to think of as a number 1 centre -- yet they`re all doing well and all except Florida are in the playoffs. Most of those teams have two number 2 centres. Same goes for Nashville, St. Louis and Winnipeg. The difference is that they have centres who are tougher to play against and do more of the little things right. And all of those teams have probably 2 and maybe even 3 centres that are better than Bozak.

I ****in agree. It's a team sport and we don't need suckers like others have. We need players like kommy komarov, santorelli, polak etc. If I had an army full of polaks, kommys and santorellis with a guy like kessel, backes, elias, byfuglien, then there would be no stopping us.
It's only certain type of soldiers we need and then some. The first liner is not needed. We need great soldiers.

 

[Deez Nuts]

Bernier - He was shopped all over the league and all he could fetch was Frattin. Outside of Leaf nation, nobody thinks this guy is or will become elite. He is smallish, suffers from brain farts and let's in weak goals basically every game. His sv% is inflated based on the number of shots. I do not believe he will ever become the #1 we can count on.
Rielly - Seems to me this was a bad pick. There are several players drafted after him that have way higher potential and are putting up points/results on their respective teams. Clearly Rielly will never be the aggressive shut down type, and his offensive upside which was supposed to be his biggest strength is non existant. He has no shot whatsoever and really don't see any flashes of high offensive potential. He can skate and that is it. He will be a 3/4 type dman but with no shot his usage on the PP is kinda limited. This pick will look brutal in a few years with studs like Forsberg and Trouba lighting it up.
Kadri - On a good team with a clear number one C he is fine. But the Leafs have no such thing. As a number 2 he is average at best and as the original poster suggested - basically a poor man's Ribeiro. Below avg at faceoffs, his defense has improved but nowhere near above average and I think his supposed grit is a myth - he is just good at running players when they are in vulnerable positions. He is known as a "rat" and a "diver" and really can't compete with true number 1 C's as his size and strength are again average at best. His skating and shot are also average at best and at this point I don't see drastic improvements in any category.
Nylander - Still way too early but again he does not look like a player you can build your team around. More likely a winger in my opininion - a smallish type with good hands, great skating ability and a decent shot at this point. Out of all the Leaf players, I see this guy as having the best upside but no way a franchise player or a number 1 C. This guy is somewhat similar to Kadri in size - not something I want as my #1 C.

The rest of the Leaf prospects will be lucky to make the NHL with the exception of Percy who will be a 3/4 type D at best. Gauthier perhaps will become a defensive 3rd line C down the road but drafting this type of player in the first round is a major problem - drafting players has been a major problem for decades.

The future looks very grim in Leafland - NO we are not getting elite young players or top draft picks for Kessel and Leafs are likely to draft between 6-12, not bad enough to grab one of those top C's.

 

[Al14]

Bernier - He was shopped all over the league and all he could fetch was Frattin. Outside of Leaf nation, nobody thinks this guy is or will become elite. He is smallish, suffers from brain farts and let's in weak goals basically every game. His sv% is inflated based on the number of shots. I do not believe he will ever become the #1 we can count on.
Rielly - Seems to me this was a bad pick. There are several players drafted after him that have way higher potential and are putting up points/results on their respective teams. Clearly Rielly will never be the aggressive shut down type, and his offensive upside which was supposed to be his biggest strength is non existant. He has no shot whatsoever and really don't see any flashes of high offensive potential. He can skate and that is it. He will be a 3/4 type dman but with no shot his usage on the PP is kinda limited. This pick will look brutal in a few years with studs like Forsberg and Trouba lighting it up.
Kadri - On a good team with a clear number one C he is fine. But the Leafs have no such thing. As a number 2 he is average at best and as the original poster suggested - basically a poor man's Ribeiro. Below avg at faceoffs, his defense has improved but nowhere near above average and I think his supposed grit is a myth - he is just good at running players when they are in vulnerable positions. He is known as a "rat" and a "diver" and really can't compete with true number 1 C's as his size and strength are again average at best. His skating and shot are also average at best and at this point I don't see drastic improvements in any category.
Nylander - Still way too early but again he does not look like a player you can build your team around. More likely a winger in my opininion - a smallish type with good hands, great skating ability and a decent shot at this point. Out of all the Leaf players, I see this guy as having the best upside but no way a franchise player or a number 1 C. This guy is somewhat similar to Kadri in size - not something I want as my #1 C.

The rest of the Leaf prospects will be lucky to make the NHL with the exception of Percy who will be a 3/4 type D at best. Gauthier perhaps will become a defensive 3rd line C down the road but drafting this type of player in the first round is a major problem - drafting players has been a major problem for decades.

The future looks very grim in Leafland - NO we are not getting elite young players or top draft picks for Kessel and Leafs are likely to draft between 6-12, not bad enough to grab one of those top C's.

Good analysis!

I have no faith that our scouts will identify, and draft, the correct players no matter where we end up!

As per usual, we see players drafted after our picks, possibly excelling and becoming more complete hockey players! This will plague us until we get our scouting department, and G.M. position, upgraded!

 

[Felstead]

There's no set time frame for a rebuild. Depth pieces are irrelevant. What matters is winning - and getting the pieces necessary to create a team that has the potential to make the playoffs ever year with the ceiling to surpass that - that's how you win. Aim high.

It's pretty simple really:

1C
1G
1D

You need that to even be a playoff team every year nowadays, let alone be a contender.

God bless Kadri's heart but his ceiling is a decent 2C at his absolute peak. Right now he is a very average to below average 2C. And then you have to account for style of game - personally you need two-way players at 1/2C and for me, Kadri is just not a core winning piece. He doesn't figure into future plans, upgrade him along the way. He's a poor-man's Ribeiro.

Nylander, until he proves otherwise, is and will be a winger. He could be a slightly better Kessel in the far off future, but 1C? LOL no. I wouldn't plan on it.

Reilly? He may turn out to be a 2D someday, certainly a 3-4. I don't know if he'll ever be a 1D because he doesn't have the size to lead your PK unit.

Bernier/Bibeau - Are they current/future .925+ goalies? Because that's what it takes to go deep in the playoffs. Goalies keep getting better and now it seems like you need .930 to be considered elite, or .920 if you even want a chance.

The Leafs will be NOTHING for a LONG time to come unless they get their 1C real soon, and Leafs ownership deserves every awful thing that comes their way.

Sorry. I stopped reading once you said "decent 2C at his absolute peak".

You don't know that. I don't know that. What I do know is Kadri can 100% be a core piece going forward.

What is it with some of this fan base not realizing how important Depth is? Its literally if your not a #1 C then you need to be shipped out of town. That's flawed bud.

EDIT: I'm sorry with these Kadri posts but my god am I ever having to defend this kid lately. People just don't understand....

 

[Menzinger]

Most of these arguments about "Kadri being at best an average #2 centre" seem to come down to "he is because I say it is".

 

[-DeMo-]

Most of these arguments about "Kadri being at best an average #2 centre" seem to come down to "he is because I say it is".

well that's what people generally do state there opinion's. he's on pace for 46 points right now, is average at best defensively, and not very good on the draws he's pretty much an average 2nd line center right now.

 

[Kingstonian84*]

Hopefully not 5 years but I dont think we should panic if he is not a legit #1 before 25.
I do think we could, as you say, make him our #1 already this season. I reckon he will flourish given more time on the ice.

Like I said, I think he has all the tools to be a top pairing guy in the near future. He's 21 now? I can't see it taking him another 4 seasons to reach the top role and excel at it... whether or not he turns out to be an elite top pairing guy is another question though.

 

[666]

I don't think people around really understand how bad things are. Try this, replace any three players in the Leafs lineup with any three players at similar points in the contract careers and make the cap space work and you still probably can't make the Leafs a contender.

Malkin replaces Bozak -4M cap
Doughty replaces Phaneuf +2m cap?

replace Kessel or Clarkson with an in his prime contract player and fit it under the cap and it's still not gonna make this team a contender.

I suppose that you might be able to replace young guys with young studs but that's not realistic as in a few years the cap would never work.

 

[King Leaf]

Bernier - He was shopped all over the league and all he could fetch was Frattin. Outside of Leaf nation, nobody thinks this guy is or will become elite. He is smallish, suffers from brain farts and let's in weak goals basically every game. His sv% is inflated based on the number of shots. I do not believe he will ever become the #1 we can count on.
Rielly - Seems to me this was a bad pick. There are several players drafted after him that have way higher potential and are putting up points/results on their respective teams. Clearly Rielly will never be the aggressive shut down type, and his offensive upside which was supposed to be his biggest strength is non existant. He has no shot whatsoever and really don't see any flashes of high offensive potential. He can skate and that is it. He will be a 3/4 type dman but with no shot his usage on the PP is kinda limited. This pick will look brutal in a few years with studs like Forsberg and Trouba lighting it up.
Kadri - On a good team with a clear number one C he is fine. But the Leafs have no such thing. As a number 2 he is average at best and as the original poster suggested - basically a poor man's Ribeiro. Below avg at faceoffs, his defense has improved but nowhere near above average and I think his supposed grit is a myth - he is just good at running players when they are in vulnerable positions. He is known as a "rat" and a "diver" and really can't compete with true number 1 C's as his size and strength are again average at best. His skating and shot are also average at best and at this point I don't see drastic improvements in any category.
Nylander - Still way too early but again he does not look like a player you can build your team around. More likely a winger in my opininion - a smallish type with good hands, great skating ability and a decent shot at this point. Out of all the Leaf players, I see this guy as having the best upside but no way a franchise player or a number 1 C. This guy is somewhat similar to Kadri in size - not something I want as my #1 C.

The rest of the Leaf prospects will be lucky to make the NHL with the exception of Percy who will be a 3/4 type D at best. Gauthier perhaps will become a defensive 3rd line C down the road but drafting this type of player in the first round is a major problem - drafting players has been a major problem for decades.

The future looks very grim in Leafland - NO we are not getting elite young players or top draft picks for Kessel and Leafs are likely to draft between 6-12, not bad enough to grab one of those top C's.

And this is why people are reluctant to start rebuilding in Toronto. Two seasons in and you've decided Rielly is a bust? Jesus...way too early to make that call. Duncan Keith got two years in the AHL before jumping to the big leagues. Also, on Bernier, Dean Lombardi think he's going to be elite. Do I trust you or two-time Stanley Cup winning GM?

I agree with you that Nylander will eventually become a winger, and I think his game is best suited to that position.

On Kadri, the hate is crazy, he's a great #2 C, and I think he is aware of that and trying to round out his overall game. Is he the best #2 in the league? Of course not, but I'm more than happy taking his 50-60 point seasons. His defensive game has improved and he can still get better.

 

[nsleaf]

Yea, the Leafs should have done a lot of things differently. Thats called hindsight. Question is now what do they do? I don't get why some fans keep rehashing the past??????

 

[Kingstonian84*]

Yea, the Leafs should have done a lot of things differently. Thats called hindsight. Question is now what do they do? I don't get why some fans keep rehashing the past??????

Exactly, what's done is done. If I'm the GM this is what I do-

1. I sit down with guys like Winnik and Santo this week- I find out two things a) do they want to truly be here b) how much term do they want. If they want to be here and are willing to accept a deal of 2 years/1.75M (Winnik) and 3 years/3-3.5M per (Santo) then great sign me up, if not I deal them BOTH at the deadline for assets

2. Guys like Franson, Lupul, and Riemer I deal at the deadline for picks.... none of these guys fit here long term, move them for value.

3. At the draft, go for the BPA with the 1st rounder. I think Franson nets us a late 1st rounder, that would give us 2 picks in the top 30, boom. Lupul and Santo IMO can net us a 2nd rounder each, that makes it 4 picks in the top 60, pretty incredible given where we were less then a year ago.

4. Kessel and Phaneuf I attempt to deal in the offseason, I get they are hard to move and hey if they come back next year it wouldn't be the end of the world going forward imo.

 

[TheLeafsBro]

Yea, the Leafs should have done a lot of things differently. Thats called hindsight. Question is now what do they do? I don't get why some fans keep rehashing the past??????

Probably because this organization keeps making the same mistakes over and over again.

 

[Deez Nuts]

And this is why people are reluctant to start rebuilding in Toronto. Two seasons in and you've decided Rielly is a bust? Jesus...way too early to make that call. Duncan Keith got two years in the AHL before jumping to the big leagues. Also, on Bernier, Dean Lombardi think he's going to be elite. Do I trust you or two-time Stanley Cup winning GM?

I agree with you that Nylander will eventually become a winger, and I think his game is best suited to that position.

On Kadri, the hate is crazy, he's a great #2 C, and I think he is aware of that and trying to round out his overall game. Is he the best #2 in the league? Of course not, but I'm more than happy taking his 50-60 point seasons. His defensive game has improved and he can still get better.

I don't see anyone calling Rielly a bust? But what skills does he have that will make him a number 1 D? Other than skating, every aspect of his game is average. His shot is way below average without a doubt. Only 20 years old but his upside is a #2 D, however a 3/4 is more likely.

Kadri is a "great #2 C?"
If avg defense, poor FO% and a scoring pace of less than 50 pts is "great" then Bozak must be a superstar!

Ok Dean Lombardi thinks Bernier may be elite, but after watching the guy for a year and a half nothing screams elite to me. He basically let's in a soft goal every game and his size is questionable. His first round pick status is the only reason some believe he is capable of being a number 1 G.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

I don't see anyone calling Rielly a bust? But what skills does he have that will make him a number 1 D? Other than skating, every aspect of his game is average. His shot is way below average without a doubt. Only 20 years old but his upside is a #2 D, however a 3/4 is more likely.

Kadri is a "great #2 C?"
If avg defense, poor FO% and a scoring pace of less than 50 pts is "great" then Bozak must be a superstar!

Ok Dean Lombardi thinks Bernier may be elite, but after watching the guy for a year and a half nothing screams elite to me. He basically let's in a soft goal every game and his size is questionable. His first round pick status is the only reason some believe he is capable of being a number 1 G.

His hockey sense is average? His puck handling skills are average? No they are not, he is an elite skater with supreme hockey sense and good hands. Perhaps he does not become THE #1 for us, like a franchise d-man since he lacks the size and the shot. But he will most definitely become a very good top pairing defenseman for us, some one we can always rely on in every situation and some one we can say is our #1 without having to sound like homers.

 

[Deez Nuts]

His hockey sense is average? His puck handling skills are average? No they are not, he is an elite skater with supreme hockey sense and good hands. Perhaps he does not become THE #1 for us, like a franchise d-man since he lacks the size and the shot. But he will most definitely become a very good top pairing defenseman for us, some one we can always rely on in every situation and some one we can say is our #1 without having to sound like homers.

Great hands and hockey sense? Everytime I see him cross the opponent's blueline he lobs a weak wrister at the net and usually misses. Have not seen anything from him that makes me believe he has elite offensive upside. Like I said, a 3/4 type is way more likely but considering he can't shoot does playing him on the PP make any sense?

 

[thewave]

In a full rebuild scenario I trade Bernier 9/10. He brings likely a 1st and his GAA is closer to 3 (2.8)

If someone wants that have at him and pay up for sv%

An elite GAA is like 1.85-2.10 so he is way off

 

[silentbob37*]

There's no set time frame for a rebuild. Depth pieces are irrelevant. What matters is winning - and getting the pieces necessary to create a team that has the potential to make the playoffs ever year with the ceiling to surpass that - that's how you win. Aim high.

It's pretty simple really:

1C
1G
1D

You need that to even be a playoff team every year nowadays, let alone be a contender.

God bless Kadri's heart but his ceiling is a decent 2C at his absolute peak. Right now he is a very average to below average 2C. And then you have to account for style of game - personally you need two-way players at 1/2C and for me, Kadri is just not a core winning piece. He doesn't figure into future plans, upgrade him along the way. He's a poor-man's Ribeiro.

Nylander, until he proves otherwise, is and will be a winger. He could be a slightly better Kessel in the far off future, but 1C? LOL no. I wouldn't plan on it.

Reilly? He may turn out to be a 2D someday, certainly a 3-4. I don't know if he'll ever be a 1D because he doesn't have the size to lead your PK unit.

Bernier/Bibeau - Are they current/future .925+ goalies? Because that's what it takes to go deep in the playoffs. Goalies keep getting better and now it seems like you need .930 to be considered elite, or .920 if you even want a chance.

The Leafs will be NOTHING for a LONG time to come unless they get their 1C real soon, and Leafs ownership deserves every awful thing that comes their way.

Kind of but not really. If you're talking about needing a franchise center, D-man and goalie to win, you don't NEED that distribution

The Penguins won with 2 #1 Centers and a goalie. The Ducks and Devils with 2 D-men and a goalie. The Bruins won with a D-man and a goalie. The Hawks won with a center, winger, d-man. 90's Penguins won with 2 centers and a D-man etc.. The last cup they has had Osgood in net, but Lidstrom Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

You need 2-3 franchise PLAYERS to win. I agree Nylander doesn't appear to have that "real top tier" potential, he appears to be a step down from guys like McDavid and Eichel (or MacKinnon, Jones in past years). Same with Rielly, I've also said I expect Rielly to end up like Letang, but there is a CHANCE he could be Niedermayer.

There is always a chance someone will surprise and exceed expectations, but you can't/shouldn't build a team based on that assumption. For all we know Brown will be a HoF talent, but you can't base your team building strategy around that happening.

 

[Menzinger]

Kind of but not really. If you're talking about needing a franchise center, D-man and goalie to win, you don't NEED that distribution

I totally agree with this. There is no clear formula for player distribution - you simply need a good CORE of very good players.

 

[one77]

Mentioned this in another thread, but here is my pipedream:

Kessel for Seth Jones + NAS 1st
Phaneuf for ROR
Franson for ANA 1st
Bozak for anybody's 1st

Trade our own 1st which should be a good pick after trading away Kessel/Phaneuf/Franson/Bozak + two other 1sts for a top 3 pick... draft Eichel.

Eichel, Nylander, JVR, Kadri, ROR
Rielly, Jones, Percy, Gardiner
Bernier

It's a dream I know, especially considering Nonis is the GM. But having Eichel/Nylander/Kadri/ROR/JVR as your top 6 and Rielly/Jones on the backend is promising to say the least.

 

[King Leaf]

I don't see anyone calling Rielly a bust? But what skills does he have that will make him a number 1 D? Other than skating, every aspect of his game is average. His shot is way below average without a doubt. Only 20 years old but his upside is a #2 D, however a 3/4 is more likely.

Kadri is a "great #2 C?"
If avg defense, poor FO% and a scoring pace of less than 50 pts is "great" then Bozak must be a superstar!

Ok Dean Lombardi thinks Bernier may be elite, but after watching the guy for a year and a half nothing screams elite to me. He basically let's in a soft goal every game and his size is questionable. His first round pick status is the only reason some believe he is capable of being a number 1 G.

I think you said that Rielly was a bad pick? Or something along those lines? So you believe he was a bist for his draft position, I think that's fair to say. It doesn't matter though, you could be right and he could end up being a #3 Dman, but my point is it is way too early to tell. His tools are great, and he missed out on a year of development when he got injured. Hes shown he can work hard to improve his game, even in the face of adversity, so I'm willing to give the 20 year old kid a couple of years to prove himself, as I think every Leafs fan should.

Kadri was on pace for 50 points two seasons prior to this one, and in this season he was off to a rough start. Let's leave aside that he's only played in 3 full seasons and that's a small sample size, you picked the one year out of 3 where he isn't on pace for 50 to use as evidence? He's solid defensively, and can get better with the right coach, system and supporting cast. He can improve on his face offs, and I think he's aware of that and will work on it.

What doesn't scream elite to you. He's slightly undersized and loses focuses from time to time, that I agree with, but he is 26 and still has plenty of time to round out his game, especially if we're rebuilding. Also our defense is amongst the worst in the league, any goalie would get lit up here. When Quick was injured to start the season a couple of years ago, Bernier played great. I'm not using that as evidence hat he's elite, but just goes to show how good he can be behind a good team. Even with is, he's stolen a number of games for us when we were badly outplayed and outshot. He's the most technically sound goalie we've had since Belfour.

 

[Mitchy]

Have people already given up on Rielly? He's still going to be a 1D imo.

 

[leafsfan5]

#1C: Seguin
#1D: Hamilton
#1G: Rask

these 2 trades sent us back 10 years