The old 1C, 1D, 1G analysis (hint: We're a long ways off)

[Wilbur*]

There's no set time frame for a rebuild. Depth pieces are irrelevant. What matters is winning - and getting the pieces necessary to create a team that has the potential to make the playoffs ever year with the ceiling to surpass that - that's how you win. Aim high.

It's pretty simple really:

1C
1G
1D

You need that to even be a playoff team every year nowadays, let alone be a contender.

God bless Kadri's heart but his ceiling is a decent 2C at his absolute peak. Right now he is a very average to below average 2C. And then you have to account for style of game - personally you need two-way players at 1/2C and for me, Kadri is just not a core winning piece. He doesn't figure into future plans, upgrade him along the way. He's a poor-man's Ribeiro.

Nylander, until he proves otherwise, is and will be a winger. He could be a slightly better Kessel in the far off future, but 1C? LOL no. I wouldn't plan on it.

Reilly? He may turn out to be a 2D someday, certainly a 3-4. I don't know if he'll ever be a 1D because he doesn't have the size to lead your PK unit.

Bernier/Bibeau - Are they current/future .925+ goalies? Because that's what it takes to go deep in the playoffs. Goalies keep getting better and now it seems like you need .930 to be considered elite, or .920 if you even want a chance.

The Leafs will be NOTHING for a LONG time to come unless they get their 1C real soon, and Leafs ownership deserves every awful thing that comes their way.

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[Menzinger]

Kadri is already a decent #2 centre - his numbers line up quite well, not just among top six centres across the league, but even #1s. It seems totally unsubstantiated to claim he can't be a core piece of a successful team.
http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2014/12/20/nazem-kadri-first-line-material/

Nylander has been a centre for most of his professional career. He's played what, two games as a winger with the Marlies - and suddenly this defines the rest of his career?

I don't necessarily disagree you need top goaltending to succeed in the playoffs but for fun, Quick's playoff sv % last year was .911 and Crawford only had a .912 in 2013's playoff run.

 

[Wilbur*]

Kadri is already a decent #2 centre - his numbers line up quite well, not just among top six centres across the league, but even #1s. It seems totally unsubstantiated to claim he can't be a core piece of a successful team.
http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2014/12/20/nazem-kadri-first-line-material/

Nylander has been a centre for most of his professional career. He's played what, two games as a winger with the Marlies - and suddenly this defines the rest of his career?

I don't necessarily disagree you need top goaltending to succeed in the playoffs but for fun, Quick's playoff sv % last year was .911 and Crawford only had a .912 in 2013's playoff run.

Kadri may have a high PTS/60 but what is his opponent averaging? Kadri is also ABYSMAL on face offs. 46% at age 24 isn't going to cut it. He's also fairly small, isn't particularly fast (he's a very average skater), and isn't the greatest at protecting/shielding the puck. It's easy to pick ONE stat such as the article you quoted in order to make a point, but you have to look at the whole picture, and that is he is a average 2C at best. A 1C plays on your top PP and PK units and always matches up against the opponents best players. Kadri is simply unable to do that. He is a robin to another center's batman.

 

[rdawg1234]

I'd say you have your #1G, Bernier isn't perfect, but he's still adjusting to the starting position and is still maintaining a very high level of play despite the team in front being absolute crap. As the team improves his numbers will as well.

#1C, we don't have one, however Nylander has the potential to be at least a top line winger, possibly a #1-2C, really can't predict that one, he's only 18, but shows high offensive potential.

But you say long way off, well being as we're missing the playoffs this year and will get a very good pick(as well as possibly 1 or 2 extra 1sts via trades) we could very well get that #1C in about 4 months in this very strong draft, guarentee we're a top 5 pick with how we're playing, that could get you a dylan strome, possibly an eichel if we're lucky.

#1D, probably the furthest away, if you trade Kessel for Jones and then draft a #1C with our pick I'd say we'll turn this team around very fast.

 

[Wilbur*]

#1D, probably the furthest away, if you trade Kessel for Jones and then draft a #1C with our pick I'd say we'll turn this team around very fast.

Except this is the Leafs we are talking about. The Preds aren't trading us Jones for Kessel. At most you'd get Fiala plus a pick. And you just know Shanny will hum-and-haw and end up waiting til the offseason to trade Kessel, meaning we make a late-season meaningless surge to get the 9th pick as opposed to the 4th. That's just how it is, and the team still won't have a 1C of 1D.

 

[cookie]

Kadri may have a high PTS/60 but what is his opponent averaging?

Possession wise, he's better than breaking even which would mean that for all else being equal, he's beating his competition. This means that he's driving the play and when that happens, the puck is directed at the opposing net mlre than the Leafs' net. It's up to ALL the players to keep up with the play and make good reads and finish. With Winnik and Clarkson getting regular shifts with him, the line cant finish as often meaning less potential +s. As a result the thing with plus minus is that it is not indicative of 5v5 play: line changes, goalie screwups and getting a shorty scored on you give you a minus, but it doesn't take into account who your teammates are and stuff like what kinds of faceoff situations your coach puts you in. Remember how the Franson-Fraser pairing had an absurdly high +\-?

Kadri is also ABYSMAL on face offs. 46% at age 24 isn't going to cut it. He's also fairly small, isn't particularly fast (he's a very average skater), and isn't the greatest at protecting/shielding the puck.

It feels like at times if he doesn't draw the penalty, it ends up becoming a horrible chance against. There should be marginal improvements in his game as the years progress, but faceoff figures are never constant for 99% of NHL centers. This year, it kind of seems like he's had a horseshoe up his are whenever there's a quality chance against. Nevertheless, he's shown improvements in his game and would be a great role model for young draftees coming through the Leafs' development system.

It's easy to pick ONE stat such as the article you quoted in order to make a point, but you have to look at the whole picture, and that is he is a average 2C at best.

Dunno about the "average 2C at best" nonsense since he's already put up consistent 50 point seasons with one closer to ppg campaign. The beauty with keeping him is that he's a genuine check and balance for the young guys coming up: they're not guaranteed the weight of the world on their shoulders from the get-go if they're drafted as the future #1C. If his contact plays out to $4.5M per year, it'd be a good barometer the Leafs could use in future negotiations. Part of the reason why we have so many overpaid players might just be this.

A 1C plays on your top PP and PK units and always matches up against the opponents best players. Kadri is simply unable to do that. He is a robin to another center's batman.

Crosby must not be a #1C then. Same with P. Kane and Thornton and ......
This is absurd. And it goes without saying that the hive mind has already decided that Kadri is a #2C.

 

[Wilbur*]

***A 1C plays on your top PP and PK, or else they better be elite offensively (PPG+ every year)*** (that's Crosby and yesteryear Thornton, Kane's a winger - Toews would be the PK/PP 1C)

 

[Moncherry]

Well the good thing is that we have the 1C and 1D figured out with Seguin and Hamilton.

Oh, damn.

 

[cookie]

***A 1C plays on your top PP and PK, or else they better be elite offensively (PPG+ every year)*** (that's Crosby and yesteryear Thornton, Kane's a winger - Toews would be the PK/PP 1C)

Thing with Kane and the reason why I chose him is based on his style of play: he drives his line much like a center would. Even Stan Bowman had hopes for him to be the Hawks #2C. With that being said, this kind of game is what we're expecting to see from Nylander, but therein lies the problem: teams draft BPA, not by position. So let's say we get a Patty Kane kind of forward with our #1 pick, ie a guy who can play center but is better suited for wing, then what do we do? Do we force him at C or do we give him the Kadri treatment only to find out that he's the best C on the team.

It's a very difficult situation the Leafs are in right now. With Kadri as the #2C, we won't have to put a kid needlessly playing a position he's not suited for and work from there.

From how the NHL is set up, I don't have high hopes of getting a premiere #1C on this team. That quality of player is rarely found outside of drafting #1 overall. What it boils down to would best case scenario a run-of-the-mill guy who can't match up against the elite and as a result needs support from guys further down the lineup.

 

[cookie]

Well the good thing is that we have the 1C and 1D figured out with Seguin and Hamilton.

Oh, damn.

Got Rask too. Might want to put Steen up as a top 6 forward. Maybe Jay Harrison could be a good fit in the bottom pairing?

 

[Giuseppe Sallo]

Yeah, Burke set us back big time and I can't forgive him... a #1C & a #1 D Man is what we really need badly. It all starts from the draft.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Insert Jones/Ekblad/Hamilton type to our backend and McDavid/Eichel/Mackinnon type into our 1C and we become the team everyone hoped for and one easily to build from

Trading and signing revolving door pieces has prevented us from obtaining those type of players. Do the right thing, and DON'T try to force a playoff birth through nearsighted moves

 

[080]

I don`t think if you necessarily need a number 1 C.

Montreal, Boston, Florida and the Rangers don`t have what we like to think of as a number 1 centre -- yet they`re all doing well and all except Florida are in the playoffs. Most of those teams have two number 2 centres. Same goes for Nashville, St. Louis and Winnipeg. The difference is that they have centres who are tougher to play against and do more of the little things right. And all of those teams have probably 2 and maybe even 3 centres that are better than Bozak.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

I don`t think if you necessarily need a number 1 C.

Montreal, Boston, Florida and the Rangers don`t have what we like to think of as a number 1 centre -- yet they`re all doing well and all except Florida are in the playoffs. Most of those teams have two number 2 centres. Same goes for Nashville, St. Louis and Winnipeg. The difference is that they have centres who are tougher to play against and do more of the little things right. And all of those teams have probably 2 and maybe even 3 centres that are better than Bozak.

I do agree with the accessment that we don't need a bonifide number 1 C when comparing to Boston, MTL and NYR.

Looking at those rosters though. Without a Number 1 C - They all required Vezina calibre goaltending(Rask,Price,Lundy) and Norris calibre defense.(Subban,Chara,McDonagh) Not to mention depth in the forward group.

Phaneuf isn't close to any of the 3 D listed. He would be in the second tier (Siedenburg,Markov, Girardi) when comparing importance to those contending teams.

 

[Pucker77]

I do agree with the accessment that we don't need a bonifide number 1 C when comparing to Boston, MTL and NYR.

Looking at those rosters though. Without a Number 1 C - They all required Vezina calibre goaltending(Rask,Price,Lundy) and Norris calibre defense.(Subban,Chara,McDonagh) Not to mention depth in the forward group.

Phaneuf isn't close to any of the 3 D listed. He would be in the second tier (Siedenburg,Markov, Girardi) when comparing importance to those contending teams.

Any contending team needs depth. You can get away with weak offense if you play defense and score by commitee(Nashville). You can get away with poor defense by having the forwards help out more (Minnesota). You can get away with bad goaltending if everyone else can pick up the slack after bad goals allowed (Chicago).

To have a shot you need depth + 2 out of the 3 (C, D, G). The only teams that really have all 3 are what CHI, PIT, LAK, and maybe TBL? Every team has short comings, the good teams know their weaknesses and address them with depth.

Even if the Leafs had a #1C, #1D, and #1G they would still probably miss the playoffs if they continued to play face punchers on their fourth line.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

I do believe Nylander has #1 C potential. But I think he is years away from getting there. Perhaps 5 years from now.

Same can be said about Rielly, I really believe he can become a #1 defenseman. But he is perhaps 5 years away to.

 

[Kingstonian84*]

Actually... I don't thnk were that far off

Bernier has already shown he's a legit starting goalie.
Rielly has all the tools needed to be a top pairing guy, thing that is lacking is ability to overtake a game but that will come with experience
We're missing that 1c still.... Nylander could be that guy, he oozes offensive potential and maturity but that's just it its potential. He hasn't played a lick In the nhl but out of all options he's the best one going forward as of today.

 

[Kingstonian84*]

I do believe Nylander has #1 C potential. But I think he is years away from getting there. Perhaps 5 years from now.

Same can be said about Rielly, I really believe he can become a #1 defenseman. But he is perhaps 5 years away to.

Rielly 5 years away? Nope, if it takes him that long then he ain't a top paying guy. Look at all the young studs (doughty, subban, Olivia larks-ekison, Jones, weber, suter etc) all are either current top pairing blueliners at 21-23' or have gotten that role at that age. Rielly is turning 21 soon, and given how weak our top pair is and given how rielly has grown under horacheck... I'd say he's 1-2 years away, actually you know what? Screw it we aren't making the dance this year, I'd put rielly out there on the top pairing at both es and on the powerplay, timo to take the training bra off and let the breasts shine.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

Rielly 5 years away? Nope, if it takes him that long then he ain't a top paying guy. Look at all the young studs (doughty, subban, Olivia larks-ekison, Jones, weber, suter etc) all are either current top pairing blueliners at 21-23' or have gotten that role at that age. Rielly is turning 21 soon, and given how weak our top pair is and given how rielly has grown under horacheck... I'd say he's 1-2 years away, actually you know what? Screw it we aren't making the dance this year, I'd put rielly out there on the top pairing at both es and on the powerplay, timo to take the training bra off and let the breasts shine.

Hopefully not 5 years but I dont think we should panic if he is not a legit #1 before 25.
I do think we could, as you say, make him our #1 already this season. I reckon he will flourish given more time on the ice.

 

[Mess]

Leaf Nation hopes lie in hands of Nylander, Rielly and Bernier/Bibeau to fill those key core positions as that is currently what we have to work with.

 

[thewave]

Leaf Nation hopes lie in hands of Nylander, Rielly and Bernier/Bibeau to fill those key core positions as that is currently what we have to work with.

Bernier may not be the guy. He very well could want to go somewhere more stable. In the event that happens Reimer Bibeau.

 

[Leafidelity]

Rielly, Nylander and even Bibeau(as Bernier's depth) are a good start in all three positions, now you keep drafting more layers of depth to it. Their 2015 first will likely be the next piece added to that group, along with any additional first round picks.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

Leaf Nation hopes lie in hands of Nylander, Rielly and Bernier/Bibeau to fill those key core positions as that is currently what we have to work with.

Even if they dont become #1 guys in those key positions I think Rielly and Nylander are great players to have on the team and as a core. Rielly as a #2 and Nylander as a top line winger is not what we wish for but something we should be happy about anyway.

What I like the most about Rielly and Nylander other then their skating and ability to handle the puck is that they are both very smart hockey players. With Percy and Brown as future key support players I like that we get a group of players who have one of their key assets above their shoulders.

 

[Maple Leaf]

#1C: Seguin
#1D: Hamilton
#1G: Rask

 

[Trapper]

Leaf Nation hopes lie in hands of Nylander, Rielly and Bernier/Bibeau to fill those key core positions as that is currently what we have to work with.

That's why we need to shed the remains of Burke's old core and add more Kadri/Rielly/Nylander into the system.

Perhaps while you are doing that, you finish bottom 3 and add a big piece. Then you have all the above plus to support it.