Speculation: The Official Tank Thread

[Rzombo4 prez]

Pretty unfortunate with defensemen, OK with forwards, pretty good with goalies. For not picking higher than 15 for twenty five years, I'd call that drafting stretch decent.

If we can't expect to materially improve upon our current drafting without rebuilding, how do you expect to acquire the elite talent we need to compete?

I am still waiting for the pro-Holland/"re-build on the fly" crowd to explain how exactly we are going to acquire elite talent now that the trade and free agency markets are not an option.

 

[jkutswings]

Until they don't. And that's always been the case. Hell, you would think being a Red Wings fan, you'd remember the times when the heavy heavy heavy favorite Wings got bounced by a hot goalie and a lucky underdog. No, you don't bank on it because it's statistically unlikely, but you can't completely discount that anything CAN happen, because it has and it will. Upsets are a thing for a reason.

Which is fine, if your ultimate goal is to occasionally win a playoff round or two. But the point is that teams with a fringe talent level simply do not win championships, because it's asking to be 10% of the 10% of the 10% of the 10% (or on the order of a 1 in 10,000 shot). That's a ridiculous approach to striving for excellence.

 

[njx9]

I am still waiting for the pro-Holland/"re-build on the fly" crowd to explain how exactly we are going to acquire elite talent now that the trade and free agency markets are not an option.

Yup, doing 'ok' and hitting on some second and third liners with late round picks is nice, but isn't going to change the fact that the team talent is lagging, and that we aren't going to make up for it in FA or by trading those second and third liners. At some point, you need actual talent, and you have to stop missing on/failing to develop the Sheahans, Smiths and Kindls that you pick up.

 

[InjuredChoker]

In alphabetical order:

Anaheim, Boston, Calgary, Chicago, Colorado's is shockingly bad, Columbus, Florida, LA, Minnesota...

Y'all need to look around the league a bit if you think Detroit's cap situation is bad.

i think it's you who should take a look around the league.

can you explain how our cap management is better than those teams?

the 'shockingly bad' avalanche have 52.5M tied in 13 players next season. wings have 16 players, who tie up 68M. or 15 with 64M, without franzen. which team has more flexibility?

the season after that, both teams have 8 players under contract (on their current roster like in last case). avs have 40M locked up. wings have 50M. which team has mroe flexibility?

i understand you like to defend holland but can't you do that without making stuff up consistently?

 

[njx9]

the 'shockingly bad' avalanche have 52.5M tied in 13 players next season. wings have 16 players, who tie up 68M. or 15 with 64M, without franzen. which team has more flexibility?

the season after that, both teams have 8 players under contract (on their current roster like in last case). avs have 40M locked up. wings have 50M. which team has mroe flexibility?

And the kind of players the Avs have tied up? MacKinnon. Landeskog. Erik Johnson. Tyson Barrie. Duchene. All either young, or vastly better (or more tradeable, if that's your style) than having guys like Abbie, Helm, Nielsen, and Ericsson tied up until they essentially retire. Soderberg is their only over-30 long term signing.

 

[AD1066]

What it boils down to me is: no #1C, no #1D, and seemingly no plan in place to acquire either.

Our top three scorers are 32-36 years old. The highest scoring player we've drafted in 16 years is Jiri Hudler. Our GM is too risk adverse to make a major trade. We don't have any special appeal to high profile free agents. We apply expensive band-aids to our problems and hand out No Movement Clauses like candy.

These are not the hallmarks of a successful franchise.

 

[InjuredChoker]

And the kind of players the Avs have tied up? MacKinnon. Landeskog. Erik Johnson. Tyson Barrie. Duchene. All either young, or vastly better (or more tradeable, if that's your style) than having guys like Abbie, Helm, Nielsen, and Ericsson tied up until they essentially retire. Soderberg is their only over-30 long term signing.

yes, avs worst long-term contract is carl soderberg, and he scored 51 points last year. leading scorer for the wings, Z, had 50 points.

 

[Frk It]

At some point, you need actual talent, and you have to stop missing on/failing to develop the Sheahans, Smiths and Kindls that you pick up.

It's not really missing on or failing. You are supposed to get Sheahans, Smiths, Kindls with where we drafted at that time.

 

[TCNorthstars]

What it boils down to me is: no #1C, no #1D, and seemingly no plan in place to acquire either.

Our top three scorers are 32-36 years old. The highest scoring player we've drafted in 16 years is Jiri Hudler. Our GM is too risk adverse to make a major trade. We don't have any special appeal to high profile free agents. We apply expensive band-aids to our problems and hand out No Movement Clauses like candy.

These are not the hallmarks of a successful franchise.

Huh? The Wings have exactly 1 player with a no movement clause.

 

[AD1066]

Huh? The Wings have exactly 1 player with a no movement clause.

Sorry, No Trade Clause.

Players like Ericsson and Abdelkader should not be given those.

 

[njx9]

It's not really missing on or failing. You are supposed to get Sheahans, Smiths, Kindls with where we drafted at that time.

If you're going to 'rebuild on the fly', those can't be the kinds of players you end up. You need to identify the Subbans and Benns and get them, if you want this method to be successful. Alternately, you need to develop your first round players to be better than waiver fodder and 4th line floaters. *shrug*

 

[izlez]

And the kind of players the Avs have tied up? MacKinnon. Landeskog. Erik Johnson. Tyson Barrie. Duchene. All either young, or vastly better (or more tradeable, if that's your style) than having guys like Abbie, Helm, Nielsen, and Ericsson tied up until they essentially retire. Soderberg is their only over-30 long term signing.

And here's my problem.

Team tanks, "successfully" drafts players in those spots, doesn't have a lick of success. Players are praised.

Perhaps those players aren't actually good.

Same applies for Calgary, Carolina 2-3ish years ago and current Winnipeg.

So much young talent. GMs are geniuses. *Insert 5 more years of being bottom 5*

 

[Flowah]

If you're going to 'rebuild on the fly', those can't be the kinds of players you end up. You need to identify the Subbans and Benns and get them, if you want this method to be successful. Alternately, you need to develop your first round players to be better than waiver fodder and 4th line floaters. *shrug*

You can't do that though. No one can identify the Subbans and Benns that fall through the cracks. If anyone could do that they'd not have fallen through the cracks...

What kind of incompetent GM/Scouting staff sees a bonafide #1D and #1C get passed over by a bunch of teams and doesn't pull the trigger the first chance they get? No one. Absolutely no one. If any of those GMs had a clue they'd have been taken 1st round no questions asked.

That's why rebuilding without tanking is ridiculous. You're looking for lightning to strike. The number of elite players found down there where we draft is strikingly low and there's no method to it, just madness.

And here's my problem.

Team tanks, "successfully" drafts players in those spots, doesn't have a lick of success. Players are praised.

Perhaps those players aren't actually good.

Same applies for Calgary, Carolina 2-3ish years ago and current Winnipeg.

So much young talent. GMs are geniuses. *Insert 5 more years of being bottom 5*

Elite players are a necessary, but not sufficient, component to building contending teams. They are however the most difficult component. Finding/Signing/Trading for Nyquists and Tatars is significantly easier than getting a top line/pairing player.

I think the Wings are pretty good at finding supporting level talent. I think if you added a 1D/1C to this club they'd be a contender. I can see our d-corp now. DK no longer required on top pair and no more PP time. Green no longer our de facto #1. Everyone moves down a slot. Z no longer required to carry the team on his back. Looks real good to me.

 

[njx9]

You can't do that though. No one can identify the Subbans and Benns that fall through the cracks. If anyone could do that they'd not have fallen through the cracks...

What kind of incompetent GM/Scouting staff sees a bonafide #1D and #1C get passed over by a bunch of teams and doesn't pull the trigger the first chance they get? No one. Absolutely no one. If any of those GMs had a clue they'd have been taken 1st round no questions asked.

That's why rebuilding without tanking is ridiculous. You're looking for lightning to strike. The number of elite players found down there where we draft is strikingly low and there's no method to it, just madness.

No part of me disagrees with any of that. However, if you really want to 'rebuild on the fly' in the manner we've been going about it, you have to be the one who 'finds' those guys, or you have to develop the guys you find to be those guys. Sheahan might represent the average (or slightly better than average) talent level of a guy picked around #20, but if that's all you're ever getting, you're going to spend a lot of time in purgatory.

 

[Pavels Dog]

i think it's you who should take a look around the league.

can you explain how our cap management is better than those teams?

the 'shockingly bad' avalanche have 52.5M tied in 13 players next season. wings have 16 players, who tie up 68M. or 15 with 64M, without franzen. which team has more flexibility?

the season after that, both teams have 8 players under contract (on their current roster like in last case). avs have 40M locked up. wings have 50M. which team has mroe flexibility?

i understand you like to defend holland but can't you do that without making stuff up consistently?

When you're a bad team for a long time, players don't earn big contracts. Avs have horrible depth and are wasting away years of their star players by not having any Helm/Abby/Nielsen/Etc type guys surrounding them.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

When you're a bad team for a long time, players don't earn big contracts. Avs have horrible depth and are wasting away years of their star players by not having any Helm/Abby/Nielsen/Etc type guys surrounding them.

Are you saying it is just as difficult to find guys like Helm and Abdelkader as it is to find elite talent?

 

[Flowah]

No part of me disagrees with any of that. However, if you really want to 'rebuild on the fly' in the manner we've been going about it, you have to be the one who 'finds' those guys, or you have to develop the guys you find to be those guys. Sheahan might represent the average (or slightly better than average) talent level of a guy picked around #20, but if that's all you're ever getting, you're going to spend a lot of time in purgatory.

My point was that it is completely unreasonable to expect that rebuild on the fly. Literally zero teams are able to do that. Not a single team finds those players late in the draft with anything resembling more than blind luck. So if anyone's plan revolves around that, it is a ridiculous plan most likely doomed to fail.

And if you really believed there was a method to it, shouldn't you be.... pissed as hell at Holland? It's been how many years since our last home run pick? If it's something that can be done through skill and not luck, development and not fortune, then why are we failing so hard at it?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Are you saying it is just as difficult to find guys like Helm and Abdelkader as it is to find elite talent?

.... no. I do however think good depth isn't as easily acquired as people think and I wouldn't envy a team because they have "flexibility". If Avs have flexibility, why are they choosing to not be a good team?

 

[ArGarBarGar]

.... no. I do however think good depth isn't as easily acquired as people think and I wouldn't envy a team because they have "flexibility". If Avs have flexibility, why are they choosing to not be a good team?

Ken Holland isn't the only General Manager who may or may not be doing a poor job of running things.

And if depth is more easily acquired than star talent, then what makes our situation better than Colorado's?

 

[Dotter]

What's the point in having "cap flexibility" if there's no players worth spending the flexible cap on? Avs "cap flexibility" ain't doing **** for them.

Wings are 20 points better than the Avs (mid-way through the season) with no "cap flexibility" than Avs who have "cap flexibility", and young players who people in this thread is touting is better than anything we have. If that is the essence of what "cap flexibility" is suppose to be, then I don't want it. I don't want the DRWs to become the Avs version 2.0.

Avs have recently drafted top 3 three times. They drafted top 10 twice. And looks like they'll keep their top drafting streak alive again this year. This is what people want the Detroit Red Wings to become? Lol

"cap flexibility" is overrated. Look no further than the Avs.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

It isn't either one or the other. There is a middle ground, where we have elite talent but use the flexibility we have to acquire depth and develop players around those stars.

Where is the success story with the current strategy?

 

[InjuredChoker]

What's the point in having "cap flexibility" if there's no players worth spending the flexible cap on? Avs "cap flexibility" ain't doing **** for them.

Wings are 20 points better than the Avs with no "cap flexibility" than Avs who have "cap flexibility" and young players who people in this thread is touting is better than anything we have. If that is essence of what "cap flexibility" is suppose to be, then I don't want it. I don't want the DRWs to become the Avs.

Avs have recently drafted top 3 three times. They drafted top 10 twice. And looks like they'll keep their top drafting streak alive again this year. This is what people want the Detroit Red Wings to become? Lol

"cap flexibility" is overrated. Just look no further than the Avs.

who here said that he wants the detroit red wings to be become avs?

cap flexibility isn't overrated. avs don't have ton of it, they have more of it than the avs.

avs aren't bad because of cap flexibility. they are bad because of bad coaching staff and bad FO who ahve made lot of bad decisions and have acquired bad players.

When you're a bad team for a long time, players don't earn big contracts. Avs have horrible depth and are wasting away years of their star players by not having any Helm/Abby/Nielsen/Etc type guys surrounding them.

they would be in worse situation if they had one or many of those guys and their contracts. still an awful team but with more bad contracts. at least avs have room to fix those issues if avs FO starts making competent decisions in the future.

 

[Dotter]

It isn't either one or the other. There is a middle ground, where we have elite talent but use the flexibility we have to acquire depth and develop players around those stars.

Where is the success story with the current strategy?

Look at all the top picks Avs had recently, where's their success story?

Where's Islander's success story?
Where's Sabres success story?
Where's [insert habitual top drafting team the past 8+ years who still miss the playoffs and are still a basement dweller team here] success story?

I don't find getting top picks every-single-year and having "cap flexibility" is any form of success what-so-ever. Drafting is a fun day, but not that fun. I think Oiler fans are about sick of draft day and just want to see results.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

When you're a bad team for a long time, players don't earn big contracts. Avs have horrible depth and are wasting away years of their star players by not having any Helm/Abby/Nielsen/Etc type guys surrounding them.

Nope, it is the lack of talent on the backend that has been causing them to waste away. Every team has their Helms and Abbys. The Avs tried to surround their young players with good vets like Iginla, Beauchemin and Talbot, and kept many vets around longer than they should have (Tanguay, Hejduk, Giguere).

At the end of the day, talent matters.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Look at all the top picks Avs had recently, where's their success story?
Where's Islander's success story?
Where's Sabres success story?
Where's [insert habitual top drafting team the past 8+ years here who still miss the playoffs and basement dweller team here] success story?

I don't find getting top picks every-single-year and having "cap flexibility" is any form of success what-so-ever.

You didn't answer my question.