Speculation: The Official Tank Thread

[KJoe88]

Holland has stated numerous times the way to compete in today's NHL is through drafting and development. That's the plan. It's the only way. He's also not going to ice a roster full of kids. He wants veteran players around to help. I don't see why this is so hard to understand for some people.

I agree honestly. Just wish he wasn't so passive at times.

 

[Claypool]

I agree honestly. Just wish he wasn't so passive at times.

Picked up an extra draft pick to get Hronek. Got a draft pick back with Erik Cole to draft Saarijarvi. Got an extra draft pick to get Bertuzzi. He's not making sexy moves that could backfire (like Buffalo). He's getting draft picks. That's what he needs to do right now.

 

[Red Stanley]

Speaking of embarrassment and failure, rather be Detroit right now than Florida, TB or Dallas.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Speaking of embarrassment and failure, rather be Detroit right now than Florida, TB or Dallas.

It gets better. If you poll the tank crowd and have them apply their standards for Detroit to the league at large with regards to when to start a tank, I would put the over/under for number of teams who they think should be tanking right now at 18.

And I might take the over.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Holland's cap management has left us with probably the worst cap situation in the entire league.

In alphabetical order:

Anaheim, Boston, Calgary, Chicago, Colorado's is shockingly bad, Columbus, Florida, LA, Minnesota...

Y'all need to look around the league a bit if you think Detroit's cap situation is bad.

 

[Claypool]

In alphabetical order:

Anaheim, Boston, Calgary, Chicago, Colorado's is shockingly bad, Columbus, Florida, LA, Minnesota...

Y'all need to look around the league a bit if you think Detroit's cap situation is bad.

Pretty much. Very few teams have a lot of cap space outside of New Jersey and Carolina. I've been trying to dispel this notion but people still can't grasp the scenario.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I guess it comes down to what you want from the Wings. For some, every season the Wings don't make the playoffs is painful.

For me, every season the Wings don't legitimately contend is painful. I just don't draw much of a distinction between being pretty bad and being really bad.

Get busy living or get busy dying.

 

[Claypool]

It gets better. If you poll the tank crowd and have them apply their standards for Detroit to the league at large with regards to when to start a tank, I would put the over/under for number of teams who they think should be tanking right now at 18.

And I might take the over.

If you don't have a #1 center and a #1 defenseman you should always be tanking. That's what they say.

 

[Red Stanley]

It gets better. If you poll the tank crowd and have them apply their standards for Detroit to the league at large with regards to when to start a tank, I would put the over/under for number of teams who they think should be tanking right now at 18.

And I might take the over.

If you ask the HFB fanbases who are currently dissatisfied with their teams' performance, about 20 teams should be tanking for high picks. Most of them probably view their team as being worse off than the rest.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Holland has stated numerous times the way to compete in today's NHL is through drafting and development. That's the plan.

It's a great plan. The only issue is, they didn't pull it off. Their drafting has been mediocre for a really long time now, and they haven't drafted any blue chip guys at all. They have done nothing on defense for years and years, and it shows. They have zero elite talent on offense, and it shows. They haven't done a good job drafting goalies, and it shows.

Now they get to draft and develop even better players. I guess that's in accordance with the plan, right?

 

[HockeyinHD]

I guess it comes down to what you want from the Wings. For some, every season the Wings don't make the playoffs is painful.

"Every season"?

For me, every season the Wings don't legitimately contend is painful. I just don't draw much of a distinction between being pretty bad and being really bad.

Great. So, how many teams should be tanking right now? Certainly at least the bottom 4 in each division, right? None of those guys are 'legitimately contending'. That's 16.

Boston, Toronto, Rangers, St. Louis, Edmonton... any of them, too?

 

[Red Stanley]

It's a great plan. The only issue is, they didn't pull it off. Their drafting has been mediocre for a really long time now, and they haven't drafted any blue chip guys at all. They have done nothing on defense for years and years, and it shows. They have zero elite talent on offense, and it shows. They haven't done a good job drafting goalies, and it shows.

Now they get to draft and develop even better players. I guess that's in accordance with the plan, right?

Pretty unfortunate with defensemen, OK with forwards, pretty good with goalies. For not picking higher than 15 for twenty five years, I'd call that drafting stretch decent.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I fully agree with the tank crowd that under no circumstances should we be looking to add to the team in order to continue the streak. However, I do think they should do everything in their power with the current team to try and continue it.

My stance as well. I want to see the team perform at something close to it's peak ability at all times. If that means barely making the playoffs, then I'm happy that we're continuing the streak and getting some playoff games (aka the most fun games of the year) and I'll hope for a miracle run.
If it means getting a top 10 draft pick, so be it. If we're that bad, take the pick and try to improve.

I wouldn't go for big trades just to make the playoffs. But I want our young players to actually get a chance. To me, signing guys like Nielsen/Vanek/Helm/Abby/etc. is all about giving your young players a chance to actually grow into leading roles on the team. You're not going to throw 4th rounder Athanasiou onto the top line at age 22-23 and see anything but disappointment. But if you let him mature from a bottom 6 guy, learning from veterans, maybe he can actually turn into an impact player? Having Anthony Mantha learn from a workhorse like Z is perfect. Putting Anthony Mantha on a team where losing is okay and too much effort is detrimental to the tanking effort... you risk ruining him.

Make the most of what you have. If what you have is not enough.. draft, develop, try again.

It's a great plan. The only issue is, they didn't pull it off. Their drafting has been mediocre for a really long time now, and they haven't drafted any blue chip guys at all. They have done nothing on defense for years and years, and it shows. They have zero elite talent on offense, and it shows. They haven't done a good job drafting goalies, and it shows.

Now they get to draft and develop even better players. I guess that's in accordance with the plan, right?

Except this team would have been getting top 10 picks left and right for years now if not for their great drafting and development. Nyquist/Tatar/Sheahan/Jurco were huge in making the playoffs that one year, without Nyquist going on a tear the team likely drops like a brick in the standings. Him and Tatar lead the team in goals Babcock's last year, and Mrazek was huge. And what's the team without Larkin and Mrazek last year?

We may have zero elite talents on offense IN THEIR PRIME. But Z and Vanek are undoubtedly elite talents. Mantha I would put in that category too. AA is showing some elite offensive skills. Larkin isn't too far off, on his best nights he is one of those players that dominate possession. If we do anything this season, it's because of guys like that. If we get a top 5-10 pick it's because the young players didn't manage to carry enough responsibility. Then we get to draft another good talent.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

I look at it this way.

Either make a run and get in. Do I think we'll go anywhere if you do? Probably not, but you never know. This isn't basketball where the 7th/8th is almost guaranteed to get steamrolled and you're better off just being a lottery team. And I get enjoy enjoy playoff hockey even if it's for a round. Plus you extend the streak.

or

continue to suck and get a lottery pick. Trade Vanek for a 1st. Try to get a skate sharpener or a few Gatorade bottles for Miller/Smith/Ott.


The absolute worst thing they can do is hover around average and finish 9th or 10th. So obviously that's what will probably happen.

 

[AD1066]

It seems there are different mindsets regarding making the playoffs but not being truly competitive. Personally, getting bounced in five games brings me exactly zero added value as a fan. It makes no difference to me whether we are making the playoffs or not at that point. Could not care less about the streak. It's a warm, fuzzy concept used to mask some harsh truths. Although I understand why many disagree.

When you dig into the underlying numbers, the idea that "anything can happen" is a borderline lie to placate fans. Anything can happen in a statistical sense, but the probabilities are so heavily in favor of teams that meet certain criteria, a Wings team limping into the playoffs with a patchwork roster and no elite talent is almost destined to fail and fail early.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

It gets better. If you poll the tank crowd and have them apply their standards for Detroit to the league at large with regards to when to start a tank, I would put the over/under for number of teams who they think should be tanking right now at 18.

And I might take the over.

Maybe those 18 teams should at the very least be looking to get draft picks and not hoard or trade for veterans.

The question is, are they doing that? Are those 18 or so teams doing right now what the Wings are doing? And is it relevant considering we aren't fans of those teams and those teams are not going to be in the exact same situation as we are?

Putting Anthony Mantha on a team where losing is okay and too much effort is detrimental to the tanking effort... you risk ruining him.

Nobody is saying the coaches and players should make losing a priority or try to lose. The entire point is the general manager should make moves to put the team in the best position to succeed long-term, and not try to make bandaid moves to make the team maybe squeak into the playoffs every year.

 

[jkutswings]

I look at it this way.

Either make a run and get in. Do I think we'll go anywhere if you do? Probably not, but you never know. This isn't basketball where the 7th/8th is almost guaranteed to get steamrolled and you're better off just being a lottery team. And I get enjoy enjoy playoff hockey even if it's for a round. Plus you extend the streak.

or

continue to suck and get a lottery pick. Trade Vanek for a 1st. Try to get a skate sharpener or a few Gatorade bottles for Miller/Smith/Ott.


The absolute worst thing they can do is hover around average and finish 9th or 10th. So obviously that's what will probably happen.

While that might have been true at one point in time, recent evidence suggests it might not be the case anymore.

In the last 5 years, an 8 seed has made it out of the first round only once. That was the LA Kings in 2011-12, who were a very good team held back by a bunch of injuries, until they got healthy and caught fire in the last 20 games, and had a historic run of goaltending by Quick to carry them to a Cup.

In that same timeframe, LA was the only 7th/8th seed to make it past the second round.

Lately, teams that squeak in tend to get bounced fast.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

While that might have been true at one point in time, recent evidence suggests it might not be the case anymore.

In the last 5 years, an 8 seed has made it out of the first round only once. That was the LA Kings in 2011-12, who were a very good team held back by a bunch of injuries, until they got healthy and caught fire in the last 20 games, and had a historic run of goaltending by Quick to carry them to a Cup.

In that same timeframe, LA was the only 7th/8th seed to make it past the second round.

Lately, teams that squeak in tend to get bounced fast.

Until they don't. And that's always been the case. Hell, you would think being a Red Wings fan, you'd remember the times when the heavy heavy heavy favorite Wings got bounced by a hot goalie and a lucky underdog. No, you don't bank on it because it's statistically unlikely, but you can't completely discount that anything CAN happen, because it has and it will. Upsets are a thing for a reason.

 

[izlez]

It's amazing to me with how complex sports are, with different GM's, coaches, forwards, defensemen, goalies all dependent on winning to keep their job and provide for their families, that people really believe that the goal of the Red Wings is to "Just make the playoffs". How do you go about executing that? You think their goal is a 7 or 8 seed? What happens when Zetterberg gets injured and you miss the playoffs?



Combine that with the praise Tampa Bay, Florida, Dallas, Winnipeg, and our young guys get....it's pretty damn clear no one knows what the hell they are talking about. You look at the top teams and see they have high draft picks leading their team. You look at the middle and see that they have high draft picks leading their team. You look at the bottom and you see high draft picks leading their team.


"PLAY MORE KIDS"
*insert kids and have worst season in 25 years*
"SEE I TOLD YOU 5 YEARS AGO WE NEED A YOUTH MOVEMENT! I WAS RIGHT!"

 

[Frk It]

If you don't have a #1 center and a #1 defenseman you should always be tanking. That's what they say.

How many teams have neither? List the ones that do and ask yourself if you want to be in that company?

 

[Winger98]

I agree honestly. Just wish he wasn't so passive at times.

Especially when he has talked about the Patriots being one of the organizations he looks at as successfully running a club in a capped world. The Patriots are essentially ruthless with their roster moves when they think a player has slipped.

For the rebuild on the fly thing to really have a shot, I think Holland has/had to be willing to move guys who aren't core to the team's playoff chances for future assets, while back filling with kids. We should have dealt Quincey for whatever we could get at the last deadline. We should have dealt Helm. We probably should have dealt Gator. We should be dealing at least Smith, Miller, and/or Ott (and preferably Vanek) this year.

I'm also tired of the whole argument that other clubs have made a bunch of stupid signings and screwed up their cap, so it's okay that we have.

 

[njx9]

I don't want the team to sign any more mediocre players to lifetime contracts. I don't want the team to trade assets of any value for band-aids, to try to eke out losing our way into the playoffs. I'm tired of watching the team fail at drafting or developing elite players.

And I'm tired of the idea that getting trounced in the first round by a team missing multiple top players is somehow success, and that winning the Cup is too much of a crapshoot to strive for, or that winning it solely comes down to luck.

We need to acquire a few drivers and get rid of a few passengers.

If that means I'm in favor of 'tanking' or 'rebuilding on the fly', then whatever.

 

[Frk It]

No, you don't bank on it because it's statistically unlikely, but you can't completely discount that anything CAN happen, because it has and it will. Upsets are a thing for a reason.

What teams have pulled off upsets with a roster like the one we currently have?

I literally can't think of any.

Pretty unfortunate with defensemen, OK with forwards, pretty good with goalies. For not picking higher than 15 for twenty five years, I'd call that drafting stretch decent.

We are one of the best teams in the league at drafting wingers outside of the top 15. Honestly it's pretty crazy how good we are at it. If you could build teams with 100% wingers we could re-build on the fly forever and be good. But centers and defenseman are just too hard to find where we typically draft.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

In alphabetical order:

Anaheim, Boston, Calgary, Chicago, Colorado's is shockingly bad, Columbus, Florida, LA, Minnesota...

Y'all need to look around the league a bit if you think Detroit's cap situation is bad.

Our cap management is worse than Anaheim's, Boston's(surprisingly), Calgary, Chicago, Florida, LA, and Minnesota. Maybe not Colorado and Columbus.

 

[Shaman464]

This team is in the basement for a reason. Don't blame the goaltending either. The team is there because the team is full of players incapable of walking and chewing bubble gum. When they play a defensive game first mentality (IE the 'play to not lose' mentality) they end up being anemic offensively. When they play open hockey the team gets shelled. They don't have a defense capable of supporting the offense and being good defensively at the same time, and an offense that needs to cheat defensively to make up for that. This team will not be anything but a bubble team until it is able to infuse difference makers into the lineup. Player that can elevate the play of the people around them. If you don't believe me look at the times that Z has gone beast mode, imagine if you had a couple young players who did that consistently. Instead they have to depend on their aging captain to be the spark.

And a bit of a different topic, but honestly if Zetterberg isn't in the conversation for the Ted Lindsay Award, it will be a bit of a joke in my mind. He is pretty much the only reason this team isn't the worst in the league today.