Player Discussion The Nuge Part II | He sucks. The player's alright though.

[ujju2]

Since you talked about stats let's see how the stats back up your position on the "getting owned" claim.

We all know that Corsi based stats have lots of flaws. They don't isolate individuals. But they can be useful in painting a picture of how lines matched up and in particular in understanding the degree to which a line is "being owned". So here it goes

CF%

Nuge vs Getzlaf -----50.62
Team without Nuge vs Getzlaf-----37.56
Getzlaf without Nuge in the playoffs 62.44

SF%

Nuge vs Getzlaf -----52.38
Team without Nuge vs Getzlaf-----30.69
Getzlaf without Nuge in the playoffs 69.34



SC%

Nuge vs Getzlaf -----45.86
Team without Nuge vs Getzlaf-----29.47
Getzlaf without Nuge in the playoffs 70.53



HDSC%

Nuge vs Getzlaf -----42.11
Team without Nuge vs Getzlaf-----34.21
Getzlaf without Nuge in the playoffs 65.79


FO%

Nuge vs Getzlaf 56% to 44%

Getzlaf in the playoffs. 53%

Outside of one 15 minute span, none of this seems to point to the line being "owned throughout the series". In fact compared with the rest of the team, and even more so the rest of the league, it seems that Nuge's line actually held its own in terms of the balance of play at least to the degree that you can deduce from shot based metrics.

You are correct though that the trigger for the change was the collapse in game 4 which was definitely that line's worst game. In reality though it was approximately actually only a 15 minute stretch where the whole team got dominated. Nuge's line gave up two goals in that stretch. One was a terrible give away by Eberle that resulted in the goal where Perry interfered with Talbot. The other was absolutely on Nuge. It was the Getzlaf strip. NUge did make a nice play on the game tying goal to partially counter the strip. This game was also the only game that the Oilers lost in the series where Nuge's line had a negative +/-.

In fact, that strip was the only one of the four goals that the Getzlaf line scored that could be at all pinned on Nuge. One of the other goals was a brutal giveaway by Nurse in game 3 that Getzlaf flipped into the net from the side boards. The fourth goal was with the Oilers up 6-0 in game 5 where Eberle left Rackell wide open on an innocent rush.

Now if you want to point to the stat that is an indictment on the line it is GF=1 vs GA =4 when Nuge and Getzlaf are on together. The 4GA is actually not the issue. It is the 1GF, especially given the fact that they generated enough chances to be even or close to it. It is absolutely legitimate to point out that his line failed to score. But that's not about defense.

Great post.

 

[McDavyCrockett]

I feel like a line with Jokinen-RNH-Kassian could actually be our answer in the playoffs for shutting other teams down. Speed, size, physicality, agitation, two-way play, face-offs (swap in Jokinen for RNH for draws)......we literally could shut down any top line in the west.

Problem is, McLellan hates running assignments like that.

 

[oobga]

If Nuge can show he can provide some offensive punch as a winger, I think he becomes McLellan's 3rd most valuable forward just like that. He will want to keep him on the team as long as Chia will let him. Now, does McLellan give Nuge that opportunity to show he can play a more creative offensive game without the stress of playing C?

 

[nabob]

If Nuge can show he can provide some offensive punch as a winger, I think he becomes McLellan's 3rd most valuable forward just like that. He will want to keep him on the team as long as Chia will let him. Now, does McLellan give Nuge that opportunity to show he can play a more creative offensive game without the stress of playing C?

He already is McLellan's 3rd most valuable forward. I'm willing to bet that Chia values RNH at least as much or more.

 

[Spawn]

The Draisaitl contract coming in at a crazy inflated number puts yet another nail in the coffin on Nuge's career as an Oiler.

It's going to basically become a necessity to trade him away and find a replacement making half the amount.

 

[ujju2]

The Draisaitl contract coming in at a crazy inflated number puts yet another nail in the coffin on Nuge's career as an Oiler.

It's going to basically become a necessity to trade him away and find a replacement making half the amount.

Nope. We can make it work, provided we replace Maroon and a few others with cheaper options.

 

[Jet Walters]

As of right now the Oilers have 14 million cap space next year with Maroon, Strome, Jokinen, Letestu, Cagiulla, Slepyshev, Nurse, Benning, and Brossoit needing new deals.

Even if the Oilers let Maroon, Letestu, and Jokinen walk and replace them with ELC's its still going to be very tight. I don't see how RNH is here past this year unless the cap goes up substantially.

 

[Fourier]

As of right now the Oilers have 14 million cap space next year with Maroon, Strome, Jokinen, Letestu, Cagiulla, Slepyshev, Nurse, Benning, and Brossoit needing new deals.

Even if the Oilers let Maroon, Letestu, and Jokinen walk and replace them with ELC's its still going to be very tight. I don't see how RNH is here past this year unless the cap goes up substantially.

Right now with the $CDN up things are looking reasonably good that the cap will be in the $79-81M range. At $80M things would be tight to squeeze everyone on the current roster in but they might be able to do it with some tight negotiating. At $79M one of Maroon, Strome or Nuge is gone. At $81M they have some breathing room.

The difference between $8.5M and $7.5M is actually quite significant for the next two years. But it is what it is.

 

[Fourier]

The Draisaitl contract coming in at a crazy inflated number puts yet another nail in the coffin on Nuge's career as an Oiler.

It's going to basically become a necessity to trade him away and find a replacement making half the amount.

It's almost for sure one of Maroon or Nuge unless the cap takes a big jump which it could. This year will say a lot about which one. I expect.

 

[Raab]

Draisaitl's deal pretty much guarantees RNH is moved to another team

 

[Faelko]

Draisaitl's deal pretty much guarantees RNH is moved to another team

That was determined long before now. Oilers wouldn't be able to afford RNH even if Drai signed for 7M.

 

[Canovin]

Oilers can afford RNH. It's really up to him at this point.

 

[PaPaDee]

The Draisaitl contract coming in at a crazy inflated number puts yet another nail in the coffin on Nuge's career as an Oiler.

It's going to basically become a necessity to trade him away and find a replacement making half the amount.

Depends. If they try Nuge out on the wing with McDavid, and he finds success there, I think they would look to justify keeping him. However, if he ends up playing a shutdown C role, it's pretty hard to justify his salary.

 

[Mr Positive]

Oilers can afford RNH. It's really up to him at this point.

This is exactly it. Where there is a will there is a way. RNH needs to be better than he was last season, and that could happen.

The tricky thing is that to justify keeping RNH, he needs to be worth more than 6 million, considering that any supporting we have now needs to be some kind of a bargain, especially if we can't get a bargain deal on Talbot.

With a 78+ million cap, 6 million is not what it was when RNH signed though. I think RNH can succeed in having a great year and staying long term.

 

[Mr Positive]

Depends. If they try Nuge out on the wing with McDavid, and he finds success there, I think they would look to justify keeping him. However, if he ends up playing a shutdown C role, it's pretty hard to justify his salary.

I don't know if that really makes RNH worth it.

Here's what needs to happen to keep him imo

-He plays with McDavid on the PP and piles up points there
-He centers a line to much success
-He leads in other roles like PK and key matchup assignments
-20 goals, 60 points, good possession numbers

Part of this is that a winger inflated by McDavid is not an impressive thing to me, and not worth 6 million. That's why I'd want Maroon at 3-4 million even though he's a 30 goal scorer there.

Also, I really believe that our team last season was not 100% functional, even though we nearly won the division. Part of that is the inconsistency in Anaheim and SJ as well. But, we were too top heavy. With our maturing core of young players, we could end up as a team with much better scoring balance, and that could mean that RNH excels even in a 3rd line role at even strength.

 

[LMFAO]

I think RNH gets traded for Gallagher next off season

2018/2019

Caggiula-Mcdavid-Puljujarvi
Lucic-Draisailt-Yamamoto
Slepyshev-Strome-Gallagher
Khaira-Gambardella-Kassian

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If he puts up a big season we'll fit him in going forward. If not he's gone.

 

[joestevens29]

If he puts up a big season we'll fit him in going forward. If not he's gone.

I think he has to show something in the playoffs. Him putting up 60 points in the regular season, but putting up a .3 ppg won't cut it. Either he has to produce at a decent clip in the playoffs or show that he can shut down the other team's best in the playoffs. Him playing some wing and doing well with LD/CM could go a long way as well.

Then of course if Maroon and Letustu put up similar seasons to last year and then Strome plays well too. It might not matter what RNH does.

 

[belair]

I know Zona fans don't like it but I think some amalgamation of RNH for Strome might happen sometime over the next two summers. I don't think Chiarelli is pushing Nuge our the door but the logistics of a deal like this just make sense. Especially if Strome sputters out of the gates next season.

 

[Jejune]

I think he has to show something in the playoffs. Him putting up 60 points in the regular season, but putting up a .3 ppg won't cut it. Either he has to produce at a decent clip in the playoffs or show that he can shut down the other team's best in the playoffs. Him playing some wing and doing well with LD/CM could go a long way as well.

Then of course if Maroon and Letustu put up similar seasons to last year and then Strome plays well too. It might not matter what RNH does.

He was so snakebitten in the playoffs though, he had a ton of grade A chances that hit posts or missed by inches.

At least he was getting the chances. Eberle was really struggling just to get near the net with the puck.

 

[Asiaoil]

Yet you keep using +/- as the end all be all

The people who say Eberle's defensive game improved are the same people who tried to excuse Gagner's loss of production and say it was due to improved defensive play. It doesnt pass the smell test, especially considering that CBJ put Gagner in a purely offensive/PP role last year.

I'll trust NHL coaches and GM's over you and Gregor

Eberle's defensive game did improve substantially last season after he was thrown off Mcdavid's line before xmas, and this is supported by both eye and numbers. That improvement doesn't change the fact that he is too weak both physically and in terms of leadership/character to ever be an impact player in meaningful games against tough opposition which was obvious in the playoffs. I'm happy he's gone in spite of the improved defensive effort.

Watch the games, look at the numbers, evaluate your assumptions if there is a disconnect as "intangibles" are likley in play. Just because you can't measure something doesn't mean it's unimportant.

As for RNH......he's got one last chance to prove he has the character and determination to be part of this team. If he doesn't come to camp substantially stronger and mentally tougher, then he's done, and we will bring in someone who is to play 3C.

 

[Soundwave]

As of right now the Oilers have 14 million cap space next year with Maroon, Strome, Jokinen, Letestu, Cagiulla, Slepyshev, Nurse, Benning, and Brossoit needing new deals.

Even if the Oilers let Maroon, Letestu, and Jokinen walk and replace them with ELC's its still going to be very tight. I don't see how RNH is here past this year unless the cap goes up substantially.

Lucic (6) McDavid (12.5) Caggiula (2.5)
RNH (6) Draisaitl (8.5) Puljujarvi (0.985)
blank (1) Strome (3.5) Kassian (1.3)
Khaira (0.625) blank (1) Slepyshev (1.2)
blank (0.85)

Klefbom (4.1) Larsson (4.1)
Sekera (5.5) Russell (4)
Nurse (3) Benning (2.5)
Gryba (0.9)

Talbot (4.1)
Broissoit (1.1)

= 75.26 mill

It's tight, but not impossible. Cap will likely rise to about 77 mill or so I feel.

Also while I like certain things about guys like Slepyshev and Caggiula .... these aren't the be all/end all type players.

Some of these types of players we will let go if they ask for too much.

I feel like we are going to have to dump Russell after year 2 of his deal (when his NMC moves into a NTC). If it means having to attach a pick to make it happen, so be it.

 

[Jejune]

Lucic (6) McDavid (12.5) Caggiula (2.5)
RNH (6) Draisaitl (8.5) Puljujarvi (0.985)
blank (1) Strome (3.5) Kassian (1.3)
Khaira (0.625) blank (1) Slepyshev (1.2)
blank (0.85)

Klefbom (4.1) Larsson (4.1)
Sekera (5.5) Russell (4)
Nurse (3) Benning (2.5)
Gryba (0.9)

Talbot (4.1)
Broissoit (1.1)

= 75.26 mill

It's tight, but not impossible. Cap will likely rise to about 77 mill or so I feel.

Also while I like certain things about guys like Slepyshev and Caggiula .... these aren't the be all/end all type players.

Some of these types of players we will let go if they ask for too much.

I feel like we are going to have to dump Russell after year 2 of his deal (when his NMC moves into a NTC). If it means having to attach a pick to make it happen, so be it.

Does that include Pouliot's buyout?

 

[Spawn]

Does that include Pouliot's buyout?

No it doesn't. It also is one player short of a 23 player roster, doesn't factor in the possibility of 2.5 million of bonuses for Pulju and Kassian's cap hit is wrong in his mock up. He's at 1.95. Not 1.3.

 

[Asiaoil]

Anybody hear what RNH is doing this summer in terms of improving? Getting serious or just hanging with his brother again?