OT - NO POLITICS The New Normal - Hockey meets the dog days of Summer III - The Fours may reopen after all

[Aussie Bruin]

For those that know me and what I do I am , at this moment n time, generally aligned with this:

Vaccine available 'late 2nd, 3rd quarter, 2021' -CDC

a lot of gates though must be passed through and then logistical challenges overcome.

The Australian coronavirus response strategy is entirely predicated on a successful vaccine being developed, manufactured, distributed and injected in the vast majority of Australians. To this end, our government is banking on a plan to complete mass inoculation by the second half of 2021. If the current Uni of Oxford/Uni of Queensland vaccine trials prove successful and are completed on schedule by the end of the year, then we've got a contract for 84 million doses and the means to manufacture them right here in Victoria by mid next year.

Australia secures onshore manufacturing agreements for two COVID-19 vaccines | Prime Minister of Australia

Now this might be bluster, or garbage, or massively over-optimistic, but this is what our senior politicians are telling us, or more to the point selling us, as a cornerstone of our policy of basically disengaging from the rest of the world until we're protected from this thing. From your expert point of view Wally, does this strike you as realistic?

 

[Gee Wally]

The Australian coronavirus response strategy is entirely predicated on a successful vaccine being developed, manufactured, distributed and injected in the vast majority of Australians. To this end, our government is banking on a plan to complete mass inoculation by the second half of 2021. If the current Uni of Oxford/Uni of Queensland vaccine trials prove successful and are completed on schedule by the end of the year, then we've got a contract for 84 million doses and the means to manufacture them right here in Victoria by mid next year.

Australia secures onshore manufacturing agreements for two COVID-19 vaccines | Prime Minister of Australia

Now this might be bluster, or garbage, or massively over-optimistic, but this is what our senior politicians are telling us, or more to the point selling us, as a cornerstone of our policy of basically disengaging from the rest of the world until we're protected from this thing. From your expert point of view Wally, does this strike you as realistic?

*If* the current course remains on track I think mid 2021 is realistic for some to have a vaccine available in some quantity.

I am picking my words carefully for numerous reasons.

Safety and efficacy must be proven. That takes time as we have seen with the Pfizer 'pause'. That is normal per protocol. Something happens investigate and adjust where need be or discontinue.

Then, determine dosage. Currently it looks like a two shot regimen over months. Similar to Shingles vaccine.

Then there are logistics issues. Manufacture, to Distribution Centers , to end suppliers/Med facilities.
Many plans and many companies running parallel to this. But not knowing quantity, storage conditions, burn rates, etc....it's like running hurdles blind folded. So just models.

My opinion is something next year. Most likely, hopefully., by a few companies.
Then begin a two to three year roll out.


There will be issues with no Vaxxers. Which I wont go into.
There is an issue with herd immunity 'hopers'.
As there is zero science to back up that delusion. As well as do the math.

If it was magically to happen . Even very conservatively millions, not thousand, millions in just USA would lose their lives.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

*If* the current course remains on track I think mid 2021 is realistic for some to have a vaccine available in some quantity.

I am picking my words carefully for numerous reasons.

Safety and efficacy must be proven. That takes time as we have seen with the Pfizer 'pause'. That is normal per protocol. Something happens investigate and adjust where need be or discontinue.

Then, determine dosage. Currently it looks like a two shot regimen over months. Similar to Shingles vaccine.

Then there are logistics issues. Manufacture, to Distribution Centers , to end suppliers/Med facilities.
Many plans and many companies running parallel to this. But not knowing quantity, storage conditions, burn rates, etc....it's like running hurdles blind folded. So just models.

My opinion is something next year. Most likely, hopefully., by a few companies.
Then begin a two to three year roll out.


There will be issues with no Vaxxers. Which I wont go into.
There is an issue with herd immunity 'hopers'.
As there is zero science to back up that delusion. As well as do the math.

If it was magically to happen . Even very conservatively millions, not thousand, millions in just USA would lose their lives.

Thanks Wally. I understand your caution and appreciate your perspective. Fortunately my country is in a position where logistical issues are minimized. We're a big landmass but a very small population - just 25 million - the majority of whom live on the eastern seaboard in large and medium-sized cities. Once a vaccine is proven effective we can manufacture it ourselves, and quite quickly apparently, since we have the contracts, the tech and the capacity. Our medical system, for all its many deficiencies, is still up there with the best in the world.

We have only a tiny number of anti-vaxxers or people clinging to any other delusions. Australians are much less wary of government and mainstream medicine than the average American and the vast vast majority will happily take the vaccine as long as experts say that it's safe, especially when it becomes our ticket to freely travel the world again - the great Aussie passion above all others.

So as long as the anticipated vaccine is actually developed successfully, and that's still the big IF for me, then I'd be confident that we're in a good position to effectively roll it out quicker than most.

 

[Gee Wally]

Thanks Wally. I understand your caution and appreciate your perspective. Fortunately my country is in a position where logistical issues are minimized. We're a big landmass but a very small population - just 25 million - the majority of whom live on the eastern seaboard in large and medium-sized cities. Once a vaccine is proven effective we can manufacture it ourselves, and quite quickly apparently, since we have the contracts, the tech and the capacity. Our medical system, for all its many deficiencies, is still up there with the best in the world.

We have only a tiny number of anti-vaxxers or people clinging to any other delusions. Australians are much less wary of government and mainstream medicine than the average American and the vast vast majority will happily take the vaccine as long as experts say that it's safe, especially when it becomes our ticket to freely travel the world again - the great Aussie passion above all others.

So as long as the anticipated vaccine is actually developed successfully, and that's still the big IF for me, then I'd be confident that we're in a good position to effectively roll it out quicker than most.

I will say in my many decades of dealing face to face with the TGA inspectors and reviewers they are very thorough and very much aligned with Western Europe MHRA.
That being they are very non political and similar to physicians follow a 'do no harm' approach.

Based on what you say above, I would be optimistic.

 

[LSCII]

You’re right, economy is in the shitter. And kids are already getting the shaft with hybrid or remote. But why is that still the case? Cases in MA are under 400 a day and death and positivity rate remain low.

Again I ask, when we were sold “flatten the curve” the idea was ‘this isn’t going away and we will need to accept deaths of high risk and mostly affirmed, but we can’t risk hospital crowding. We need to control it and then gradually open up.’

The curve is flat and has been for months. Hospitals are begging for business, let alone overcrowded. R rate around 1. Low positive rate. Flat death rate. WTF are we waiting for? Or did the goalposts move to “we can’t accept any risk at all and we’re gonna lock down until a vaccine?”

The original plan to flatten the curve was being done with an eye towards not swamping the ERs and hospitals and it was dicey for a bit up here but it has been good since, you are correct. I think now with schools returning in some fashion, and cold and flu season starting up, health officials are probably expecting a surge where we could see similar things like hospitals being overrun. At the very least, I think it's best to start with school slowly, see how it goes, and adjust. If I had to guess what's going to happen, I'd say schools will be shut back down by November because cases will surge. The vaunted and debated second wave will finally hit, and it will be at the worst time. And really, why? Because too large a percentage of the population can't and won't do what's needed to beat this virus back. Other countries have it locked down with a fraction of the deaths we do, and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know why. The people in those countries sucked it up and did what they had to do. Here though? We can't be bothered to be decent human beings that look out for one another's well being. Sad, really.

 

[bp13]

The original plan to flatten the curve was being done with an eye towards not swamping the ERs and hospitals and it was dicey for a bit up here but it has been good since, you are correct. I think now with schools returning in some fashion, and cold and flu season starting up, health officials are probably expecting a surge where we could see similar things like hospitals being overrun. At the very least, I think it's best to start with school slowly, see how it goes, and adjust. If I had to guess what's going to happen, I'd say schools will be shut back down by November because cases will surge. The vaunted and debated second wave will finally hit, and it will be at the worst time. And really, why? Because too large a percentage of the population can't and won't do what's needed to beat this virus back. Other countries have it locked down with a fraction of the deaths we do, and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know why. The people in those countries sucked it up and did what they had to do. Here though? We can't be bothered to be decent human beings that look out for one another's well being. Sad, really.

So first off...I also enjoy our debates. Your points are always well thought out and I respect there are clearly differing opinions here.

As for the "second wave", I understand the reasoning behind that fear, but I don't support the position that we need to be measured in "anticipation" of an uptick, vs. aggressive towards normalcy and then responding to upticks. What's our main goal? Is the main goal restoring normalcy and accepting risks and "acceptable loss", or is the main goal "reduce losses no matter what, and economy, education, normalcy, etc. is secondary?"

As for "too large a percentage of the population can't and won't do what's needed to beat this virus back", that seems highly unlikely to me. Sure you'll have some folks who screw up, that's life, but we live in a wildly liberal state with people walking down the street more than socially distanced and STILL MASKED. Even if we open up more aggressively, we still will have way more people taking precautions in this state than anywhere else. Even if we had an uptick that doubled cases on average, we'd still be what, 1/3 of the cases we had at our peak? Is that not acceptable enough?

 

[LSCII]

So first off...I also enjoy our debates. Your points are always well thought out and I respect there are clearly differing opinions here.

As for the "second wave", I understand the reasoning behind that fear, but I don't support the position that we need to be measured in "anticipation" of an uptick, vs. aggressive towards normalcy and then responding to upticks. What's our main goal? Is the main goal restoring normalcy and accepting risks and "acceptable loss", or is the main goal "reduce losses no matter what, and economy, education, normalcy, etc. is secondary?"

As for "too large a percentage of the population can't and won't do what's needed to beat this virus back", that seems highly unlikely to me. Sure you'll have some folks who screw up, that's life, but we live in a wildly liberal state with people walking down the street more than socially distanced and STILL MASKED. Even if we open up more aggressively, we still will have way more people taking precautions in this state than anywhere else. Even if we had an uptick that doubled cases on average, we'd still be what, 1/3 of the cases we had at our peak? Is that not acceptable enough?

Can't really respond correctly to this because it will end up being a political discussion, but look at the crap that's going on. There has been a percentage of people that won't wear masks, won't distance, and still don't believe that this virus is anything other than a hoax. I see it on social media, online in general, and live all day long. I watched as these same people used their children as pawns in their anti mask agenda around returning to school. I see people who pulled Ds in high school science repeatedly deny actual doctors and scientists opinions on this because they simply don't feel like it's true. This is why we can't reopen freely. This is why we're leading the world in deaths. This is why we're leading the world in cases. Nothing more. It's all because of human stupidity.

 

[bp13]

Can't really respond correctly to this because it will end up being a political discussion, but look at the crap that's going on. There has been a percentage of people that won't wear masks, won't distance, and still don't believe that this virus is anything other than a hoax. I see it on social media, online in general, and live all day long. I watched as these same people used their children as pawns in their anti mask agenda around returning to school. I see people who pulled Ds in high school science repeatedly deny actual doctors and scientists opinions on this because they simply don't feel like it's true. This is why we can't reopen freely. This is why we're leading the world in deaths. This is why we're leading the country in cases. Nothing more. It's all because of human stupidity.

Sorry but this is just generalizing about the fools in the world. You're right, there are some, but they've always been there. And on both sides of the argument.

People walking in the woods shouting at folks who don't wear masks because this virus has given them license to judge based on what CNN tells them, people who won't let their kids leave the house now, the national media that ignores all positive trends and hypes fear for political purposes, etc. These are all reasons why we can't move forward. People can't put context and perspective on the risk, thus preventig us from having reasonable conversations and charting a path forward.

If our idea is we lock down because we can't account for the fools, do we get to apply that everywhere? No more McDonald's because insurance premiums are high and we can't account for the fools who eat only fast food and get heart disease (our leading cause of death)? No more bars and restaurants because some people drink and drive and endanger others? Where do we draw the line on things we need to take from people to bubble wrap everyone? How many jobs should we eliminate and kids should we harm in our pursuit of universal safety for all?

I posit there's plenty of nutjobs on both sides, but let's not focus on them. They can't be eliminated, and both groups are doing harm.

 

[roflstomper]

*If* the current course remains on track I think mid 2021 is realistic for some to have a vaccine available in some quantity.

I am picking my words carefully for numerous reasons.

Safety and efficacy must be proven. That takes time as we have seen with the Pfizer 'pause'. That is normal per protocol. Something happens investigate and adjust where need be or discontinue.

Then, determine dosage. Currently it looks like a two shot regimen over months. Similar to Shingles vaccine.

Then there are logistics issues. Manufacture, to Distribution Centers , to end suppliers/Med facilities.
Many plans and many companies running parallel to this. But not knowing quantity, storage conditions, burn rates, etc....it's like running hurdles blind folded. So just models.

My opinion is something next year. Most likely, hopefully., by a few companies.
Then begin a two to three year roll out.


There will be issues with no Vaxxers. Which I wont go into.
There is an issue with herd immunity 'hopers'.
As there is zero science to back up that delusion. As well as do the math.

If it was magically to happen . Even very conservatively millions, not thousand, millions in just USA would lose their lives.

-Doing the real math it would take 333 MILLION infections to estimate approx 2 million deaths.
-We know real numbers wouldn't even be close to this as current estimates are probably too high in mortality.
-Almost 40 percent of deaths have been in mismanaged Northeast nursing homes.
-The data proves beyond a doubt that people under 55 and don't have at least 2+ serious preexisting conditions are perfectly safe.
-We have seen that while it may not bee a true "herd immunity" when cases reach around 25-30 percent and an additional 30-35 percent have natural standing immunity the case rate plummets to a low, manageable and consistent baseline.

 

[Morris Wanchuk]

We pulled the kids of out the school system and doing full on home school which has been 1000 better than remote/in person learning.

I know i am coming at this from a white collar, probably privileged perspective but COVID has been a great way for our family to test new ways of living that we didn't think were possible before the pandemic due to human nature of our habit forming. Homeschool, remote work, no kids activities have really increased our quality of life inside out immediate family unit. We have a "pod" so to speak of home school kids and parents who are staying in Vermont and it has been nice using them for our social interactions. We miss our family in MA but it not worth it right now to risk seeing them.

Humans are very bad at long term planning and seek instant gratification when adjusting to survive is not really that hard to be honest. Again, lucky to have been able to keep my job but we have reduced our spending even more and have spent more time at home learning to grow more food and fix things ourselves we didnt have time to before. And the kids are much happier to not be scheduled from 8-5 every day.

 

[DarrenBanks56]

We pulled the kids of out the school system and doing full on home school which has been 1000 better than remote/in person learning.

I know i am coming at this from a white collar, probably privileged perspective but COVID has been a great way for our family to test new ways of living that we didn't think were possible before the pandemic due to human nature of our habit forming. Homeschool, remote work, no kids activities have really increased our quality of life inside out immediate family unit. We have a "pod" so to speak of home school kids and parents who are staying in Vermont and it has been nice using them for our social interactions. We miss our family in MA but it not worth it right now to risk seeing them.

Humans are very bad at long term planning and seek instant gratification when adjusting to survive is not really that hard to be honest. Again, lucky to have been able to keep my job but we have reduced our spending even more and have spent more time at home learning to grow more food and fix things ourselves we didnt have time to before. And the kids are much happier to not be scheduled from 8-5 every day.

can you send me the info on the home schooling you use?
this remote learning is beyond a joke. we are on day 2 here.
ive burned a full paid day and its been 5 hours of zoom. my daughter is so bored. they havent done any work.sad.

 

[Morris Wanchuk]

can you send me the info on the home schooling you use?
this remote learning is beyond a joke. we are on day 2 here.
ive burned a full paid day and its been 5 hours of zoom. my daughter is so bored. they havent done any work.sad.

https://www.oakmeadow.com/, Based out of southern, VT

Bottom Line: Interest Surges in Oak Meadow's Alternatives to School

 

[RoccoF14]

Sorry but this is just generalizing about the fools in the world. You're right, there are some, but they've always been there. And on both sides of the argument.

People walking in the woods shouting at folks who don't wear masks because this virus has given them license to judge based on what CNN tells them, people who won't let their kids leave the house now, the national media that ignores all positive trends and hypes fear for political purposes, etc. These are all reasons why we can't move forward. People can't put context and perspective on the risk, thus preventig us from having reasonable conversations and charting a path forward.

If our idea is we lock down because we can't account for the fools, do we get to apply that everywhere? No more McDonald's because insurance premiums are high and we can't account for the fools who eat only fast food and get heart disease (our leading cause of death)? No more bars and restaurants because some people drink and drive and endanger others? Where do we draw the line on things we need to take from people to bubble wrap everyone? How many jobs should we eliminate and kids should we harm in our pursuit of universal safety for all?

I posit there's plenty of nutjobs on both sides, but let's not focus on them. They can't be eliminated, and both groups are doing harm.

@bp13 and @LSCII

Gentlemen, I just wanted to say that I've been really enjoying reading your debate on this subject and its been a fascinating conversation.

You both make very rational arguments in a respectful and constructive manner and quite frankly, its refreshing to see.

Thanks to you both. Our nation could learn a lot from you two on how to disagree and still have a civil discourse over our respective differences.

 

[Gee Wally]

Hudson Company Opens Office Space For Families With Remote Students

 

[Gee Wally]

Ugh I don't want to get dragged in to this again but I can't continue to just let you continue to mislead people.

-Doing the real math it would take 333 MILLION infections to estimate approx 2 million deaths.
-We know real numbers wouldn't even be close to this as current estimates are probably too high in mortality.
-Almost 40 percent of deaths have been in mismanaged Northeast nursing homes.
-The data proves beyond a doubt that people under 55 and don't have at least 2+ serious preexisting conditions are perfectly safe.
-We have seen that while it may not bee a true "herd immunity" when cases reach around 25-30 percent and an additional 30-35 percent have natural standing immunity the case rate plummets to a low, manageable and consistent baseline.

take it up with Mayo Clinic and Johns Hopkins data. 70% target of 330 million needed to achieve herd if even possible. Then their, not mine, numbers based upon death data.

And I strongly urge you to not make this personal.
Flaming isnt tolerated.

 

[roflstomper]

take it up with Mayo Clinic and Johns Hopkins data. 70% target of 330 million needed to achieve herd if even possible. Then their, not mine, numbers based upon death data.

And I strongly urge you to not make this personal.
Flaming isnt tolerated.

I know. Using their data you would need 333 million cases, 100 percent of the entire population to reach 2 million deaths. 2 million divided by .006 is 333 million. Not sure what you're arguing against?

Assuming a true worst case scenario possible would be 70 percent of 2 million with 1.4 million dead.

 

[Gee Wally]

Their data.
Assume 330 million. Assume be generous only 60% confirmed.

180,000,000.
Current death rate overall US ~ 3 %.
Worldwide death rate ~ 3%.

Current US daily average of about 35k to 40k cases per day. Current death rate 1000 dead per day on average= ~ 2.5 %

At a generous 180 million and lets even assume a generous reduction in a overall of3% current 2,5 % lets drop it to 1% for fun.

we are still at 1.8 million in US. For a roll of the dice that has yet to be proven scientifically.

THEIR numbers.
If you have an issue as to how these prominent institutions calculate their data write them.

Not me.

 

[b in vancouver]

Saw my first Murder Hornet yesterday.
I have no phobias about insects or arachnids but bloody hell - these things should not exist. Freaky and ... honestly, I hope to never see another one in my life but I guess they're here. Ugh! With all the other crap going on I do not need some deadly two inch flying hornet whipping around my head as it kinda causes a wee bit of anxiety.
It's a stupid world we live in.

 

[b in vancouver]

Their data.
Assume 330 million. Assume be generous only 60% confirmed.

180,000,000.
Current death rate overall US ~ 3 %.
Worldwide death rate ~ 3%.

Current US daily average of about 35k to 40k cases per day. Current death rate 1000 dead per day on average= ~ 2.5 %

At a generous 180 million and lets even assume a generous reduction in a overall of3% current 2,5 % lets drop it to 1% for fun.

we are still at 1.8 million in US. For a roll of the dice that has yet to be proven scientifically.

THEIR numbers.
If you have an issue as to how these prominent institutions calculate their data write them.
Not me.

'Herd Immunity' is a sound byte. It's the stupidest thing you could imagine. People need to understand that the words 'herd immunity' is akin to saying 'The Black Plague wasn't bad because it eventually disappeared.'
Wear a mask when you go into a store people. It's not rocket science. I'm a middle-aged man that laughed at people wearing masks my whole life... but wear one every time I'm in-doors now - and avoid group situations. I ain't thrilled wearing them... but it's not a big ask to keep us well.

 

[Bruinaura]

 

[Bruinaura]

 

[roflstomper]

Their data.
Assume 330 million. Assume be generous only 60% confirmed.

180,000,000.
Current death rate overall US ~ 3 %.
Worldwide death rate ~ 3%.

Current US daily average of about 35k to 40k cases per day. Current death rate 1000 dead per day on average= ~ 2.5 %

At a generous 180 million and lets even assume a generous reduction in a overall of3% current 2,5 % lets drop it to 1% for fun.

we are still at 1.8 million in US. For a roll of the dice that has yet to be proven scientifically.

THEIR numbers.
If you have an issue as to how these prominent institutions calculate their data write them.

Not me.

Oh you're using CFR from March. Current estimates from CDC/WHO etc is bewteen .5 and .10 IFR.

 

[Gee Wally]

No it is from yesterday. Published daily.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

 

[b in vancouver]

Oh you're using CFR from March. Current estimates from CDC/WHO etc is bewteen .5 and .10 IFR.

Wally's 3% is correct as far as I've seen recently. That there'll be a lot more undiagnosed or asymptomatic cases would most likely drop that percentage considerably, however there's also going to be a lot of people that have died from covid complications that aren't chalked up as dying from the virus as they never went to the hospital or something - but of identified cases it's around that mark. None of the numbers are perfect - but even at the lowest end it's brutal.

The thing I've been increasingly concerned about is whether there's long term effects in people whom get it but are mostly o.k. I don't think the medical community quite has a grasp on whether it causes lung or tissue damage going forward.

p.s. we don't even know if antibodies will make a person immune or for how long. There's a very good chance people could get it multiple times over the next few years.
p.p.s. PSA - get your Flu shot this year. One or the other could be bad enough - both together... ugh - don't think it'll matter how indestructible you are - it'll suck.

 

[roflstomper]

No it is from yesterday. Published daily.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

Again, that is CFR vs IFR. CFR is a terrible measure of lethality and paints a hugely distorted view and IFR is generally considers to bee the best measure of the seriousness of the disease.

As for the accuracy of the numbers they vary between .1 and .9 from basically everyone. Take it up with Oxford University if you want. IFR of .51%.

Infection Fatality Rate – A Critical Missing Piece for Managing Covid-19
Estimating mortality from COVID-19