Speculation: The Methot Problem

[Burrowsaurus]

Hagelin has paced 40+ points several times and is a far superior defensive player. I don't think Dzingel has high IQ at all, though. Blazing speed, good passer, ok hands and ok IQ. If he had good hands and learned how to pick his spots better, he'd be a much more dangerous player.

Anyways, I really like Dzingel but I don't think he's even in the same realm as our other top 6 forwards (Stone, Ryan, Hoffman, Turris, Brassard)... and I don't really like our top 6 that much . I'd also prefer to keep Smith ahead of him, and, if Vegas is able to sign him, I sincerely expect them to do so in lieu of taking Dzingel.

Dzingel makes a wow play every game. Not even same realm? Mm I don't know. If he gets 45-50 points this year he is very much in the same realm as a current Bobby Ryan (both in their primes different story). Brassard is a center so I think that's a tad more valuable. Also his speed makes him a consistent threat. Even during his off games his speed creates.

Defensively he's improved light years. I think that alone speaks to his IQ. It was just at the start I last year that some thought he would never crack the NHL full time because of what he lacked in the areas of the game. Look at him now. Guy boucher seems to trust him enough.

I think his most underrated skill is how he controls the play in the neutral zone. Does things that not many of our other players do. Will stop up when you thought he was going to dump it and make a good hard pass through the N zone. Does it even at our blueline. I find he's smart to retain possession instead of just dumping it out.

I honestly don't think there's *much* seperating him and hagelin.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Anyways, I really like Dzingel but I don't think he's even in the same realm as our other top 6 forwards (Stone, Ryan, Hoffman, Turris, Brassard)... and I don't really like our top 6 that much . I'd also prefer to keep Smith ahead of him, and, if Vegas is able to sign him, I sincerely expect them to do so in lieu of taking Dzingel.

The way Smith is talked about by management and other players, he seems like a team player and a leader. If he wants to stay in Ottawa, I could see a handshake deal scenario where the Sens work on an extension to be signed after the draft. That way, he can go unprotected and it will ultimately be his choice if he is taken. Unlike a guy like Ryan who'll have no say and have to report if Vegas selects him. It doesn't make Smith immune from being taken, because if Vegas offers the guy significantly more money and term, he'd be stupid not to take it. Middle 6 guys like Smith need to get paid when they get the chance because they might not get that second contract that big stars get.

Consider that Colin White who is supposed to be considered as a two way type forward is coming into the team. I'm not trying to put high expectations on a rookie that hasn't played an NHL game yet, but if he comes in during the back half of the season, the Sens will have an idea of whether he can replace what a guy like Smith brings if signing Smith to UFA money is not possible.

Ryan is more productive than Dzingel (or at least SHOULD be) but if we had to keep one, I would keep Dzingel, absolutely no question about it. Ryan's ceiling for production seems much higher, but he's been a consistent 20-25 goal 55 point winger over the last few years. At this point, I'd take Dzingel on a cheaper less committed extension as a less experienced (maybe) 40-45 point type guy than Ryan at 7.25M for another 5 years as a 55 point guy with the fear of him regressing later on in the contract.

Don't mistake this for me being in the "we should give Ryan away for nothing for the sake of getting out of his contract" boat. Just that, if we have to lose one to expansion as a consequence of the team going 4-4, I would rather lose Ryan.

 

[aragorn]

The way Smith is talked about by management and other players, he seems like a team player and a leader. If he wants to stay in Ottawa, I could see a handshake deal scenario where the Sens work on an extension to be signed after the draft. That way, he can go unprotected and it will ultimately be his choice if he is taken. Unlike a guy like Ryan who'll have no say and have to report if Vegas selects him. It doesn't make Smith immune from being taken, because if Vegas offers the guy significantly more money and term, he'd be stupid not to take it. Middle 6 guys like Smith need to get paid when they get the chance because they might not get that second contract that big stars get.

Consider that Colin White who is supposed to be considered as a two way type forward is coming into the team. I'm not trying to put high expectations on a rookie that hasn't played an NHL game yet, but if he comes in during the back half of the season, the Sens will have an idea of whether he can replace what a guy like Smith brings if signing Smith to UFA money is not possible.

Ryan is more productive than Dzingel (or at least SHOULD be) but if we had to keep one, I would keep Dzingel, absolutely no question about it. Ryan's ceiling for production seems much higher, but he's been a consistent 20-25 goal 55 point winger over the last few years. At this point, I'd take Dzingel on a cheaper less committed extension as a less experienced (maybe) 40-45 point type guy than Ryan at 7.25M for another 5 years as a 55 point guy with the fear of him regressing later on in the contract.

Don't mistake this for me being in the "we should give Ryan away for nothing for the sake of getting out of his contract" boat. Just that, if we have to lose one to expansion as a consequence of the team going 4-4, I would rather lose Ryan.

Good post. I just did a big write up on keeping Smith over Dzingel if it came down to it only to realize you actually said to keep Dzingel over Ryan which I agree with & erased it. I'm still not convinced Dzingel has the potential to produce over 40 pts, I hope so though.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

Dzingel makes a wow play every game. Not even same realm? Mm I don't know. If he gets 45-50 points this year he is very much in the same realm as a current Bobby Ryan (both in their primes different story). Brassard is a center so I think that's a tad more valuable. Also his speed makes him a consistent threat. Even during his off games his speed creates.

Defensively he's improved light years. I think that alone speaks to his IQ. It was just at the start I last year that some thought he would never crack the NHL full time because of what he lacked in the areas of the game. Look at him now. Guy boucher seems to trust him enough.

I think his most underrated skill is how he controls the play in the neutral zone. Does things that not many of our other players do. Will stop up when you thought he was going to dump it and make a good hard pass through the N zone. Does it even at our blueline. I find he's smart to retain possession instead of just dumping it out.

I honestly don't think there's *much* seperating him and hagelin.

I know you don't like Ryan, but IMO theres a huge separation between the two. Brassard as well. Ryan is the best fwd on our team at making small passes and in tight, only guy close is Stone... Stone is better at creating scoring chances, but Ryan makes the little skill plays that are so hard to notice (and I think a lot of that has to do with our top 6 being pretty low-skill and more about hard work and quick strikes. Just to give an example of what I'm talking about, I think Ryan would tear it up with the Sedins). Bobbys biggest issue IMO is that he needs skilled and cerebral players. Our other forwards aren't really like that other than Stone, and they obviously can't play together because they are both RWs.

As for Dzingel, I don't think theres much separating him from Hagelin either, I just don't think there ever will be. That's fine - he's a guy I'd never want to lose - but in an expansion draft, I think thats a pretty non-destructive guy to lose. I agree with your points about Dzingel, but I don't think that what your describing makes him anything more than a middle 6 forward. He's obviously better than Varone - much, much better - but I think what makes people really love Dzingel and see him as a legit top 6er is the same thing that made people think Varone was better than Pyatt, Puempel, etc... he charges into the zone at full speed and looks dangerous, but usually it only results in an almost scoring chance. That's exciting, and gets you out of your seat... but not for long. What you said about him curling back with the puck and looking for the pass is a big aspect of what separates him from a guy like Varone, and I think he's much smarter than a guy like Varone, as well as faster and more skilled, but I still see a very similar mould of player... one is way better than the other, but they both "seem" better than they actually are.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Good post. I just did a big write up on keeping Smith over Dzingel if it came down to it only to realize you actually said to keep Dzingel over Ryan which I agree with & erased it. I'm still not convinced Dzingel has the potential to produce over 40 pts, I hope so though.

Ryan is better than Dzingel as a whole and has a higher ceiling of production but when we have to lose one, and one guy could potentially be signed for 2.5M-3.5M and the other is at such a high cap hit for many years with a history of injuries I'd rather take a chance on Dzingel.

 

[Sens Rule]

Dzingel is a special player. Like Hoffman and Stone or Havlat.

He really is showing it off every single game.

How elite he becomes? I don't know. But he is not a guy you lose in an expansion draft being cheap and young and an RFA.

If we are choosing expansion draft players we would least like to lose. And I want to lose NONE of these players. I think it is:

1) Dzingel
2) Methot
3) Ceci

Meaning I am least upset about losing Ceci and most upset at losing Dzingel.

And I love everything about Methot and see great future potential in Ceci. But Dzingel is better. He is a gamebreaker. He has elite best in the world speed. But he also has confidence. A high hockey IQ. Really good hands. Great passing ability. A pretty good and underrated shot.

To me Dzingel is a potential 50-60 point guy for a decade. That can shoot, pass and compete. And he likely can use that 2-ways. Likely he can play both special teams too.

I think right now Dzingel might be our 4th best forward after Hoffman, Stone and Turris. And that is not an insult to Brassard and Ryan who have been very effective in recent games.

Seriously... if I described Dzingel as a scout and said... Dzingel has all world speed. That he can use with the puck. He also has a high IQ and good decision making. He has confidence to hold the puck to make a better play and the puck protection skills to allow him to do that. He thinks pass first but also has good hands and a good shot he is not afraid to take. He brings it every shift and never lays back. He can play on any line with any players in any role and still be effective. He likely can PP amd PK quite well on a first or second team.

To me Dzingel is just a very good player. Play him 13/14 minutes or 20. Just play him. As much as you can. I literally love Pageau and Smith. Dzingel is already a better player then both of them.

Hoffman has a higher skill level. But Dzingel more consistently brings his like Stone or Turris.

Dzingel is now... and will be for many years a really good player. He is vastly better then Prince or Puempel were. He is just great. A natural. A really good player at everything.

The question now is how good he can be. Is he a 15 minute middle six forward that gets 40-50 points a year? Or is he better and a special teams forward that gets 50+ points and plays 16-20 minutes and maybe both special teams.

To me. Dzingelis obviously a superbly good and talented player. Is he just good or great or actually elite is the debate. Not whether he is good to start with. He is.

He is like Hoff and Stone in their full rookie years. He is undeniably a good and talented and compete tested NHLer. The only question is how good he is. Not if he is an NHLer.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Good post. I just did a big write up on keeping Smith over Dzingel if it came down to it only to realize you actually said to keep Dzingel over Ryan which I agree with & erased it. I'm still not convinced Dzingel has the potential to produce over 40 pts, I hope so though.

If you prefer Dzingel over Smith, Vegas taking Dzingel is a good problem for you to have as a fan.

Sens supposedly have a 68M budget, meaning they'll have 9.5M to fill 9 roster spots including extensions to Smith, Dzingel, and Pageau. On average, each of those guys might be 3M per season players, Smith more if gets hot and hits 20 again. Dzingel being taken probably ensures Ottawa has the salary to extend Smith.

Maybe their budget goes up or something, who knows. But late last year Melnyk claimed he puts 68M towards player salaries, and next year they are at 58.5 with only 14 roster spots paid for. 9 players at lower end salaries would still cost 6.5-7.5 million depending, so someone will probably have to go.

This is one reason why losing a forward isn't the end of the world in expansion, because the Sens will have to lose a forward anyways to fit under their **supposed** 68M budget....if that is still the budget next season. If they lose Methot and use that money to keep Dzingel+Smith, then there is no money to fill Methot's void spot via trade or free agency (even know filling it via trade or free agency is a long long long long long shot).

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Hagelin has paced 40+ points several times and is a far superior defensive player. I don't think Dzingel has high IQ at all, though. Blazing speed, good passer, ok hands and ok IQ. If he had good hands and learned how to pick his spots better, he'd be a much more dangerous player.

Anyways, I really like Dzingel but I don't think he's even in the same realm as our other top 6 forwards (Stone, Ryan, Hoffman, Turris, Brassard)... and I don't really like our top 6 that much . I'd also prefer to keep Smith ahead of him, and, if Vegas is able to sign him, I sincerely expect them to do so in lieu of taking Dzingel.

Dzingel is 100% in the realm of our other top 6 guys and 100% better than Ryan as of now.

 

[Answer]

Dzingle needs to play 18 mins a game in all situations. I don't want to lose him to expansion at all. Dzingle is better than Smith. Smith is a product of playing with Stone, or else Smith is just a 3rd line grinder with maybe 10-10 production. Imagine Dzingle getting a long stretch with Stone, which so far he hasn't.

 

[StevenB]

Leafs have no interest in giving up Zaitsev

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Dzingle needs to play 18 mins a game in all situations. I don't want to lose him to expansion at all. Dzingle is better than Smith. Smith is a product of playing with Stone, or else Smith is just a 3rd line grinder with maybe 10-10 production. Imagine Dzingle getting a long stretch with Stone, which so far he hasn't.

Dzingel has gotten more top 6 time overall than Smith this year. Yet Smith is on pace for 19 goals/35 points, Dzingel is on pace for 18/43 points. I agree Dzingel is a lot more creative as a play maker, and better offensively. To me with Dzingel, just from the eye test it looks like he creates more opportunities than Smith but finishes on a lower percentage of them but some advanced stat guru can pull up a stat to tell me I'm wrong about that if it is true. But still, the end product so far is that Smith can product at a rate that isn't that much farther down than Dzingel.

You're also discounting Smith earning his spot on that Brassard/Stone line. He was put there as a result of Hoffman being suspended and that line heated up. Is he a product of Stone? Maybe. But it worked to the point that it made sense to take Hoffman off that line so Smith has to get some credit for that.

I'm not arguing for one over the other, just stating that the difference between their production so far hasn't been huge if you're purely judging them on that. Will Dzingel heat up later in the year? Or is he a later bloomer who despite being 25 next year will turn into a 1st line producer? That's the big question. If he is just a 40-45 point guy, and that's who he is, the difference between him and the Zack Smith we've seen over the last two seasons production wise isn't massive.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

Dzingel is 100% in the realm of our other top 6 guys and 100% better than Ryan as of now.

Well, I held my opinion on the matter pretty firmly, but now that I have all those numbers in front of me I can really see your point.

Sarcasm aside, let's just say that your view that dzingel is better than Ryan is perfectly in line with what I would expect from you, so I won't try to argue it with you.

 

[Answer]

Dzingel has gotten more top 6 time overall than Smith this year. Yet Smith is on pace for 19 goals/35 points, Dzingel is on pace for 18/43 points. I agree Dzingel is a lot more creative as a play maker, and better offensively. To me with Dzingel, just from the eye test it looks like he creates more opportunities than Smith but finishes on a lower percentage of them but some advanced stat guru can pull up a stat to tell me I'm wrong about that if it is true. But still, the end product so far is that Smith can product at a rate that isn't that much farther down than Dzingel.

You're also discounting Smith earning his spot on that Brassard/Stone line. He was put there as a result of Hoffman being suspended and that line heated up. Is he a product of Stone? Maybe. But it worked to the point that it made sense to take Hoffman off that line so Smith has to get some credit for that.

I'm not arguing for one over the other, just stating that the difference between their production so far hasn't been huge if you're purely judging them on that. Will Dzingel heat up later in the year? Or is he a later bloomer who despite being 25 next year will turn into a 1st line producer? That's the big question. If he is just a 40-45 point guy, and that's who he is, the difference between him and the Zack Smith we've seen over the last two seasons production wise isn't massive.

No, I wasn't saying he's better than Smith or not trying to discredit Smith's play in past few games, but yes Smith's steller play on the 2nd line has a lot to do with Stone.

Not really caring about the point, but the skill-set Dzingle brings is far more hard to find than what Smith brings. Comparing the two players overall skill-set(even if there production is the same), I would personally choose Dzingle over Smith.

Oh, and just to mention that Smith had missed glorious grade A chances to score, that were set up by Stone, where as Dzingle hass missed just as much, but he created all of them by himself. Maybe with more experience and confidence, he will start to convert them into goals.

We have to to keep in mind that Dzingle is basically a rookie, it is his first year with the team with a proper full-time role.

 

[Sens]

I hope they take Methot
4.9 for no offense is brutal... with deadweight like Ryan and Phanuef this club can not afford the luxery of a defensive defenseman

That money can be used to improve organizational depth

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I hope they take Methot
4.9 for no offense is brutal... with deadweight like Ryan and Phanuef this club can not afford the luxery of a defensive defenseman

That money can be used to improve organizational depth

What does your version of the Senators defense look like next year if Methot is taken?

 

[Sens]

What does your version of the Senators defense look like next year if Methot is taken?

I'd wait out the UFA market and sign a Russel type for cheap to play with EK

EK is the best player in the world, he can make any second pair guy look good

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Sarcasm aside, let's just say that your view that dzingel is better than Ryan is perfectly in line with what I would expect from you, so I won't try to argue it with you.

... ok?

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Dzingel needs to finish. Guy gets one glorious scoring chance a game. Needs to capitalize

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I'd wait out the UFA market and sign a Russel type for cheap to play with EK

EK is the best player in the world, he can make any second pair guy look good

Well I guess you're right because when we tried that this season we successfully signed Seidenberg to a contract..........

That is incredibly unrealistic. This team failed to attract a veteran bottom pairing defender this off season despite Dorion being vocal about that being a need all summer. Do you really think it is responsible to put so much on the line hoping that we'll find a way to attract a SECOND PAIRING not just a bottom pairing but a SECOND PAIRING defender in a market that is going to be one of the most competitive and cut throat markets for defenders that we've seen in years? Why do you think Russel took that 1 year deal? Could it possibly be because him and his agent realize that next season will be the time to cash in for marginal defenders with the short sidedness of a majority of GMs (via poor job security) and most teams losing their 3rd or 4th best defender (if they prioritize youth ala us protecting Ceci) to Vegas?

Outside of amazing luck, which isn't something that should be accounted for when planning the off season, the Sens are almost certainly not getting a defender via the free agent market. If we have to trade for one, the price will be sky high, higher than the cost of simply going 4-4 and losing either Dzingel or Ryan. Meaning, we'd have to trade more than either Dzingel or Ryan to get another Methot equivalent.

Not to mention Methot's cap hit has been mentioned. For what he brings, 4.9M is very reasonable. Especially considering he has so little term left after this season.

If you think it'll be as easy as just signing a second pairing defender next off season because you want one, I think your expectations might be out of touch with what should be expected as realistic. If we don't have an internal replacement for Methot, odds are we are going to have to do what this team has suffered through from 2013-2016 which is put a young guy or young guys who are nowhere near ready in the top 4 ala Cowen and Wiercioch and (some) would argue Ceci now.

Get ready for Boro at 21 minutes a night.

 

[Very Stable Genius]

Get ready for Boro at 21 minutes a night.

I'd abandon this team if that were to happen.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I'd abandon this team if that were to happen.

He'd get like a billion hits though. It'd be awesome.

 

[Sens]

Well when the Sens miss the playoffs, I'll be sure to remind you Methot at 4.9 accomplished nothing this past season

I've noticed the PK has been dropping too and the Sens are now allowing over 30 shots a game once again... a team ritual since 2010

If we lose Methot is the SA going to plummet even more?

I'd rather invest the money in players who can do stuff in the offensive end

 

[NyQuil]

Well when the Sens miss the playoffs, I'll be sure to remind you Methot at 4.9 accomplished nothing this past season

I've noticed the PK has been dropping too and the Sens are now allowing over 30 shots a game once again... a team ritual since 2010

If we lose Methot is the SA going to plummet even more?

I'd rather invest the money in players who can do stuff in the offensive end

Explain to me how Methot managed to screw up two critical 5 on 3s in the past two losses?

When the team loses, you can't just pin the blame on players you don't like.

And the answer isn't some hypothetical offensive superstar that would be playing in Methot's place.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Well when the Sens miss the playoffs, I'll be sure to remind you Methot at 4.9 accomplished nothing this past season

I've noticed the PK has been dropping too and the Sens are now allowing over 30 shots a game once again... a team ritual since 2010

If we lose Methot is the SA going to plummet even more?

I'd rather invest the money in players who can do stuff in the offensive end

You're going in an entirely different direction and not really arguing your initial point. Your initial point hinged on us signing a Russell type/"middle pair" defender who Karlsson can make look good. I pointed out why I think that's not possible and if losing Methot hinges on replacing him via FA with a "Russell type/middle pairing" type it is an unrealistic plan.

Also, your argument now really makes no sense if you attribute us missing the playoffs to Methot not bringing enough offensive considering he has 4 points and Russell has 5......

I really have no idea where you're going with this. Your argument is all over the place.

 

[Sens]

Explain to me how Methot managed to screw up two critical 5 on 3s in the past two losses?

When the team loses, you can't just pin the blame on players you don't like.

Im not pinning the loses on him... I'm just saying when was the last time he made a difference offensively?

The Sens struggle to score... could Methots 4.9 help them buy better offensive depth? I believe it can