Speculation: The Methot Problem

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

This is the best Defence we've had since the Cup run, and a huge, vital part of that is Mark Methot. I'm not a stats guy at all, but Methot is a rare player where plus ****ing minus can be used to show just how great he's been. +14 on a negative goal differential team, where the other DMen are a combined -15... and that's to say nothing of the eye test, which he passes with flying colours.

All that to say this - I think losing Methot in the expansion draft would be one of the worst things that could happen to this team. The only players I would definitively prioritize over him are Karlsson and Stone, and maybe Turris or Anderson. All of those guys are safe, but it will be much more difficult to ensure Methot remains protected. There are basically three options:

1) Convince Phaneuf to waive his NMC
2) Expose Ceci
3) Make a trade

I suspect we'd all prefer option 1, whereas option 2 would be a tough pill to swallow and option 3 would be extremely difficult to manoeuvre. Option 1, obviously, would require Phaneuf to go along with it. That's a contingency we can't really account for until it occurs.

But number 2 and 3 are very "live" options, and I would like to see what other people think about them. I think our best option is to trade Ceci, in season, to a team that only has 2 good DMen to protect, for a good DMan who doesn't need protection. Here are some options I've thought of:

To AZ for D'Angelo or Chychrun
To BOS for Carlo
To CAR for Slavin or Pesce
To DAL for Esa Lindell
To TOR for Zaitsev

As you can see, the options are quite limited... but I really don't think we can afford to lose Methot AT ALL, nor can we afford to lose Ceci for nothing. Curious to hear your thoughts.

Click to read more...

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I am confident management has a plan.

I don't think Methot is as irreplaceable either.

I am not that worried but am aware that it could turn out very poorly.

 

[slamigo]

When paired with EK, all anyone has to do is play sound, simple, positional defence. I believe that there are plenty of players out there that can fill that role. I do not think Methot is somehow magical or a unicorn. He's very replaceable. He's a nice player for sure, but not worth protecting over the others*.

*depending on how Ceci develops this year. I'm keeping my hopes up that this isn't another Cowen or Wiercoch situation. lol

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

When paired with EK, all anyone has to do is play sound, simple, positional defence. I believe that there are plenty of players out there that can fill that role. I do not think Methot is somehow magical or a unicorn. He's very replaceable. He's a nice player for sure, but not worth protecting over the others*.

*depending on how Ceci develops this year. I'm keeping my hopes up that this isn't another Cowen or Wiercoch situation. lol

Ceci is already better than Cowen or Wiercioch ever were, but I'm far from confident that he will be better than Methot.

As for Methot being replaceable, I'm not so sure about that. I suspect we would have to part with a really nice piece to get a guy like Methot, and even then you're gambling on getting someone who really works with EK. Sure, anyone can play with EK and look fine, but Methot is rock solid and I think people understate just how much he helps EK.

 

[Sens]

This is the best Defence we've had since the Cup run, and a huge, vital part of that is Mark Methot. I'm not a stats guy at all, but Methot is a rare player where plus ****ing minus can be used to show just how great he's been. +14 on a negative goal differential team, where the other DMen are a combined -15... and that's to say nothing of the eye test, which he passes with flying colours.

All that to say this - I think losing Methot in the expansion draft would be one of the worst things that could happen to this team. The only players I would definitively prioritize over him are Karlsson and Stone, and maybe Turris or Anderson. All of those guys are safe, but it will be much more difficult to ensure Methot remains protected. There are basically three options:

1) Convince Phaneuf to waive his NMC
2) Expose Ceci
3) Make a trade

I suspect we'd all prefer option 1, whereas option 2 would be a tough pill to swallow and option 3 would be extremely difficult to manoeuvre. Option 1, obviously, would require Phaneuf to go along with it. That's a contingency we can't really account for until it occurs.

But number 2 and 3 are very "live" options, and I would like to see what other people think about them. I think our best option is to trade Ceci, in season, to a team that only has 2 good DMen to protect, for a good DMan who doesn't need protection. Here are some options I've thought of:

To AZ for D'Angelo or Chychrun
To BOS for Carlo
To CAR for Slavin or Pesce
To DAL for Esa Lindell
To TOR for Zaitsev

As you can see, the options are quite limited... but I really don't think we can afford to lose Methot AT ALL, nor can we afford to lose Ceci for nothing. Curious to hear your thoughts.

Why would any of those teams trade a good young piece when they have there own guys to protect?

Or why would they move a young player when they could move a 2nd + prospect for Ceci if we are in a bind.

It's a shame we don't have a 2nd till 2019 to bribe LV not to take Methot if left unprotected

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Is what it is. methot will be missed but can be replaced. I truly think we will lose him as his contract isn't "bad" and he's a very valuable guy to play with an Offensive d Man they may acquire.

 

[Lenny the Lynx]

Is what it is. methot will be missed but can be replaced. I truly think we will lose him as his contract isn't "bad" and he's a very valuable guy to play with an Offensive d Man they may acquire.

We could lock him up with a terrible contact. Problem solved

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

Why would any of those teams trade a good young piece when they have there own guys to protect?

Or why would they move a young player when they could move a 2nd + prospect for Ceci if we are in a bind.

It's a shame we don't have a 2nd till 2019 to bribe LV not to take Methot if left unprotected

Those teams all only have 1 or 2 guys who would be worth protecting, that's why I picked them. AZ has Ekman-Larsson and Goligoski, Boston has Chara and Krug, Carolina has Faulk, Dallas has Klingberg, Hamhuis and Oduya (not sure if any are UFA but they might prefer Ceci... although they are easily the weakest option for a variety of reasons), and Toronto only has Gardiner and Reilly.

 

[WadeRedden]

To me, it's not even a debate: you expose Ceci and protect Karl, Meth and Dion (because you have to). I haven't seen anything in Ceci's game to suggest he'll ever develop into a dominant top-4 guy. He's been atrocious in the defensive zone this season and he can't handle the puck for ****.

The only concern with Methot is his back imo. He's one bad hip check away from missing 20+ games.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The simplest answer is to go 4-4 and protect Stone-Hoff-Turris-Brassard/Karl-Meth-Ceci-Phaneuf. Leaves guys like Ryan, Dzingel, Pageau, Lazar unprotected. Then the question becomes is one of those guys so much more valuable than the other that trading one of them for futures and losing 2 is better than losing only 1 for "nothing" via expansion.

Losing a winger like Ryan or Dzingel will hurt but it won't hurt as much as losing Methot right now.

Ideal situation would be Phaneuf waiving, but they can't really bank on that.

To me, it's not even a debate: you expose Ceci and protect Karl, Meth and Dion (because you have to). I haven't seen anything in Ceci's game to suggest he'll ever develop into a dominant top-4 guy. He's been atrocious in the defensive zone this season and he can't handle the puck for ****.

The only concern with Methot is his back imo. He's one bad hip check away from missing 20+ games.

There's no universe where Ceci gets exposed. If they felt so strongly that they thought they should expose Ceci, they'd probably trade him instead. Ceci's return and losing the next best exposed player in the expansion draft will likely be better for the team than just losing Ceci for "nothing" via the expansion draft.

Those teams all only have 1 or 2 guys who would be worth protecting, that's why I picked them. AZ has Ekman-Larsson and Goligoski, Boston has Chara and Krug, Carolina has Faulk, Dallas has Klingberg, Hamhuis and Oduya (not sure if any are UFA but they might prefer Ceci... although they are easily the weakest option for a variety of reasons), and Toronto only has Gardiner and Reilly.

Replacing Methot next summer would be a pipe dream. Top 4 d aren't exactly easy to get, and multiple teams will need them even more so than in past years because Vegas is going to take a lot of teams top 4 defenders. Free agents defenders are going to get paid, even more so than usual, and teams dealing defenders will get huge returns. Supply and command or something right? Combine that with Ottawa historically not being a prime free agent destination and if the Sens expect to replace Methot, they better think Englund or Chabot are ready because they replacement will almost certainly have to come internally.

 

[TheNewEra]

Maybe pesce, there is no way we get the other guys for methot unless we drug the other gms

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

The simplest answer is to go 4-4 and protect Stone-Hoff-Turris-Brassard/Karl-Meth-Ceci-Phaneuf. Leaves guys like Ryan, Dzingel, Pageau, Lazar unprotected. Then the question becomes is one of those guys so much more valuable than the other that trading one of them for futures and losing 2 is better than losing only 1 for "nothing" via expansion.

Losing a winger like Ryan or Dzingel will hurt but it won't hurt as much as losing Methot right now.

Ideal situation would be Phaneuf waiving, but they can't really bank on that.

This is an interesting thought. That could definitely be the route they take.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

This is an interesting thought. That could definitely be the route they take.

If the Sens goal is to ice the most competitive team possible for 2017-18, 4-4 protection would be the path of least resistance to getting there. Removing Dzingel or Ryan is a problem, but it is an easier one to solve than removing Methot. Only terrible teams with bad depth or ones very early in their rebuild like Toronto are getting out of the expansion draft unscathed.

Things like the Phaneuf trade point to the Sens trying to be competitive now. So if I were them, and that was the plan, I would gladly lose Dzingel or Ryan to save Phaneuf.

Obviously, the dream scenario is Phaneuf trying to express himself as a leader and waiving his NMC because even if he is an integral piece to the Senators, logic dictates that Vegas might not want to take on his contract when there'll be a surplus of top 4 LD available to them in the draft. But, as of now this isn't something we can bank on.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

We could lock him up with a terrible contact. Problem solved

Lenny you may be on to something here.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Methot is actually one of the best in the league defensively. I'd say top 5-10. He's also excellent skater. We will actually face big loss if we lose him. We either need to find a way to replace him or we need to let Ceci go.

I used to think Methot is somewhat replaceable but for EK to really do his thing, we'd need someone better, no way worse.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

I dont think Methot should be considered a long term piece. He is good but he has a hard time staying healthy and i have a hard time seeing him being successful as he ages. He's had whole seasons that have been derailed by injuries, not just missing game but making him play poorly.

We definitely need a plan to replace him because atm he is an important piece just not a piece i think we can count on long term

 

[Sensinitis]

To me, it's not even a debate: you expose Ceci and protect Karl, Meth and Dion (because you have to). I haven't seen anything in Ceci's game to suggest he'll ever develop into a dominant top-4 guy. He's been atrocious in the defensive zone this season and he can't handle the puck for ****.

The only concern with Methot is his back imo. He's one bad hip check away from missing 20+ games.

That's terrible asset management.

Ceci still has lots of value, exposing him would be stupid.

Methot is actually one of the best in the league defensively. I'd say top 5-10. He's also excellent skater. We will actually face big loss if we lose him. We either need to find a way to replace him or we need to let Ceci go.

I used to think Methot is somewhat replaceable but for EK to really do his thing, we'd need someone better, no way worse.

Yeah Methot really allows EK to do his thing, and that's super underrated around here.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

it's a conundrum

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Methot is actually one of the best in the league defensively. I'd say top 5-10. He's also excellent skater. We will actually face big loss if we lose him. We either need to find a way to replace him or we need to let Ceci go.

I used to think Methot is somewhat replaceable but for EK to really do his thing, we'd need someone better, no way worse.

If we would have drafted sergachev. As was the plan letting methot go wouldn't be be so difficult.

 

[Alex1234]

Methot and EK works sooo good

Remember when Methot was injuried?

None of whom they tried with EK came close to Methot-EK

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Methot and EK works sooo good

Remember when Methot was injuried?

None of whom they tried with EK came close to Methot-EK

Well in fairness the guys they tried were phillips cowen boro.... (they had no choice). I think an adequate replacement can be found.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I dont think Methot should be considered a long term piece. He is good but he has a hard time staying healthy and i have a hard time seeing him being successful as he ages. He's had whole seasons that have been derailed by injuries, not just missing game but making him play poorly.

We definitely need a plan to replace him because atm he is an important piece just not a piece i think we can count on long term

Can't always have the best of both worlds. The options are potentially to keep Methot and make the team better in the short term with the consequence being that the Sens possibly lose a 25 year old Ryan Dzingel to Vegas, or keep their choice of forwards but lose Methot who should still be nearly equally as good as he is now over the remainder of his contract.

The Senators aren't selling everything to go all in or anything, but their moves over the last few years, along with Dorion's tone seem to dictate that the prime goal is to win and be a playoff team now. They aren't rebuilders.

The team can't make a plan to replace Methot if there just isn't one that is possible. With how competitive the trade/free agent market should be next off season for defense, replacing Methot externally isn't something that a sane GM of the Senators should bank on. Our biggest free agent coup of the last few years was who? David Legwand? Clarke MacArthur coming off of a subpar season aka not the one we've known in Ottawa?

The option would be replace Methot internally with a prospect, or give up a hell of a lot in a trade for a comparable player. At that point, the team is probably paying more than the cost of simply going 4-4 and losing one of Dzingel or Ryan or Lazar or (as much as I would hate it) Pageau.

Don't forget, Colin White is coming in this year. Will he be a 1st line forward? No. But if he comes in and looks capable of being a 40ish point middle 6 guy, although he isn't the same type of forward as Dzingel, that will at least ease the burden of losing him. (This is assuming he'd be Vegas' first choice out of our unprotected guys).

Go back a few weeks, look at how much havoc losing Methot wreaked on this team. Losing him is just not an option at this point.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Methot and EK works sooo good

Remember when Methot was injuried?

None of whom they tried with EK came close to Methot-EK

Well in fairness the guys they tried were phillips cowen boro.... (they had no choice). I think an adequate replacement can be found.

 

[Sens Rule]

Methot is better then Ceci.

You protect Methot. Simple. You try to keep Ceci too. You expose Lazar and then offer a 3rd rounder or something better to Vegas to draft Lazar over Ceci.

We can not lose Dzingel or Methot to the expansion draft. We need to figure out how not to do that. And honestly figure out how to pick up a D from Vegas or someone in the huge expansion draft shuffle.

Either way. We go for it this year. Every team has the expansion draft hanging over them and most teams do not want to lose their 4th best D. All of that will get sorted out after the playoffs. The Sens should not be making in season deals concerned with the expansion draft. All in season deals should be concerned with winning the Cup now.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Methot is better then Ceci.

You protect Methot. Simple. You try to keep Ceci too. You expose Lazar and then offer a 3rd rounder or something better to Vegas to draft Lazar over Ceci.

We can not lose Dzingel or Methot to the expansion draft. We need to figure out how not to do that. And honestly figure out how to pick up a D from Vegas or someone in the huge expansion draft shuffle.

Either way. We go for it this year. Every team has the expansion draft hanging over them and most teams do not want to lose their 4th best D. All of that will get sorted out after the playoffs. The Sens should not be making in season deals concerned with the expansion draft. All in season deals should be concerned with winning the Cup now.

I think its perhaps a little to ambitious to assume this team can win the cup. Usually its teams that have had long term success and are a playoff regular. Not a team that just missed the playoffs last year. For me at least it should be about moving this team into a sustainable playoff regular. We shouldnt make win now trades say for example acquiring a 35 year old winger with 2 years on his contract by sacrificing a 1st and one of our better prospects