Speculation: The Methot Problem

[Nac Mac Feegle]

You also need to factor shot quality, not just the number of shots against. I'd be willing to bet the quality of shots against is a much lower now than it was 5 years ago.

 

[Xspyrit]

You're going in an entirely different direction and not really arguing your initial point. Your initial point hinged on us signing a Russell type/"middle pair" defender who Karlsson can make look good. I pointed out why I think that's not possible and if losing Methot hinges on replacing him via FA with a "Russell type/middle pairing" type it is an unrealistic plan.

Also, your argument now really makes no sense if you attribute us missing the playoffs to Methot not bringing enough offensive considering he has 4 points and Russell has 5......

I really have no idea where you're going with this. Your argument is all over the place.

Fuhr is the best at moving the goal posts and also always compare what the Sens did with the best possible situation/scenario, even if highly unrealistic

People keep talking about how bad are defence used tin be but I swear some of y'all were defending cowen boro and aged phillips and saying they were doing fine and saying stuff like "they must be good if management is playing them.

Those players would have been fine if they played at a role they would have been capable of, and in a (professional) structured system, like it is the case for Boro this season. Problem is that they all have been played way over their heads for long stretches. Mainly because this team has lacked depth. And it was a bit expected right after a rebuild. Sens aren't Montreal or Toronto. Really not the same financials to buy out players and sign UFAs.

I get that we have to show progress in order to keep EK around, but I also think that ditching his partner and good friend may not be the best way to endear the organization to him.

That new Yotes GM is claiming players... taking on money for assets, using unused cap space

Why can't the Sens do stuff like that?

Poor small market franchise (geographically between Toronto, Montreal and New York). Not enough people spending money on the Sens merchandise, tickets, etc.

Now you're going to tell me you didn't know that?

That being said, there is plenty of teams who have priority at claiming players on waivers due to standings. Didn't you know that too?

You also need to factor shot quality, not just the number of shots against. I'd be willing to bet the quality of shots against is a much lower now than it was 5 years ago.

I have made a post recently about it. I'm going to copy/paste :

Yes, just look at other stats in relation to Shots Against (since the rebuild started) :

2011-12

CF% = 10th
SF% = 14th
GF% = 14th
SCF% = 28th
HDCF% = th

CA = 17th
SA = 29th
GA = 24th
SCA = 29th
HDCA = th

2012-13

CF% = 6th
SF% = 12th
GF% = 10th
SCF% = 15th
HDCF% = th

CA = 12th
SA = 23th
GA = 2nd
SCA = 18th
HDCA = th

2013-14

CF% = 9th
SF% = 23th
GF% = 23th
SCF% = 26th
HDCF% = th

CA = 24th
SA = 29th
GA = 27th
SCA = 24th
HDCA = th

2014-15

CF% = 15th
SF% = 21st
GF% = 9th
SCF% = 12th
HDCF% = 11th

CA = 19th
SA = 25th
GA = 13th
SCA = 14th
HDCA = 13th

2015-16

CF% = 24th
SF% = 29th
GF% = 17th
SCF% = 26th
HDCF% = 27th

CA = 29th
SA = 30th
GA = 26th
SCA = 28th
HDCA = 20th

* Can't find the HDCA data for 2011-12 to 2013-14 (hard to find since WoI went down)

Maybe someone could help with that?

 

[Xspyrit]

And for 2016-17 :

CF% = 26th
SF% = 23th
GF% = 19th
SCF% = 26th
HDCF% = 21st

CA = 22th
SA = 10th
GA = 8th
SCA = 16th
HDCA = 10th

The team has sacrificed offense to be better offensively. Still letting the other team shot a lot (SAT) but Sens now block the pucks and get themselves in shooting lanes efficiently and are good at clearing 2nd and 3rd chances.

If you look at 2014-15 & 2015-16, it shows that despite a high number of Shots Against, the team was trying to limit High Danger Chances Against. Like I said in previous post, can't find the HDCA data for the 3 previous year (waiting on Micklebot's help here )

 

[Micklebot]

And for 2016-17 :

CF% = 26th
SF% = 23th
GF% = 19th
SCF% = 26th
HDCF% = 21st

CA = 22th
SA = 10th
GA = 8th
SCA = 16th
HDCA = 10th

The team has sacrificed offense to be better offensively. Still letting the other team shot a lot (SAT) but Sens now block the pucks and get themselves in shooting lanes efficiently and are good at clearing 2nd and 3rd chances.

If you look at 2014-15 & 2015-16, it shows that despite a high number of Shots Against, the team was trying to limit High Danger Chances Against. Like I said in previous post, can't find the HDCA data for the 3 previous year (waiting on Micklebot's help here )

That's quite the trick...

As for HDCA from previous years, maybe hockey abstract has it. they have consolidated stats sheets from multiple sources.

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/testimonials

 

[Xspyrit]

That's quite the trick...

As for HDCA from previous years, maybe hockey abstract has it. they have consolidated stats sheets from multiple sources.

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/testimonials

Oops meant to say "The team has sacrificed offense to be better defensively"

Ok thanks for that link, will eventually check that out

 

[tony d]

Methot is a good 1 for sure. Got to think Vegas will give him a long look if he's left exposed in the expansion draft.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Phanuef

IMO Phanuef will waive his NMC. He's a low key guy, and I assume he would prefer to play in Vegas, especially if his wife works at times in LA.

Phaneuf's trade from the Leafs. Apparently Phanuef had listed 10 teams he would agree to traded too.
3 California, at least 2 in NYC and Ottawa was included.
Why was Ottawa included? Phanuef though it was not possible that the budget minded Sens would ever trade for him. So Phanuef was shocked and disappointed (at least initially) that he traded to Ottawa.

Phanuef knows Vegas at his 7m will not draft him, so to make the Sens stronger you have to think he will waive his NMC for the draft.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

IMO Phanuef will waive his NMC. He's a low key guy, and I assume he would prefer to play in Vegas, especially if his wife works at times in LA.

Phaneuf's trade from the Leafs. Apparently Phanuef had listed 10 teams he would agree to traded too.
3 California, at least 2 in NYC and Ottawa was included.
Why was Ottawa included? Phanuef though it was not possible that the budget minded Sens would ever trade for him. So Phanuef was shocked and disappointed (at least initially) that he traded to Ottawa.

Phanuef knows Vegas at his 7m will not draft him, so to make the Sens stronger you have to think he will waive his NMC for the draft.

And where are you getting this info from?

 

[sfulefty]

Methot is a good 1 for sure. Got to think Vegas will give him a long look if he's left exposed in the expansion draft.

Most everyone is predicting based on teams protecting 7 forwards and 3 dmen. I wouldn't be surprised if you see a few more teams protecting 4 dmen, and I include the Senators in that mix.

If they protect 7 forwards - Hoffman, Turris, Stone, Bobby Ryan, Derick Brassard and then protect 2 of (Zack Smith, Lazar, Dzingel and Pageau). MacArthur not being looked at with his injury history. Three Dmen would be Karlsson, Phaneuf (NMC) and Cody Ceci.

In this case, Methot gets a long look in the expansion draft as a top 4 dman with 2 years left on his contract at 4.9 per. Losing him leaves a definite void next season for the Sens, one that would need to be filled.

But if they protect 4 dmen, it keeps their top 4 intact for next season. Means they can only protect 4 forwards - Hoffman, Turris, Stone and Brassard, if they can in fact leave Bobby Ryan unprotected. At 7 mil per with many years left, not likely he would get claimed. I think it all hinges on Ryan's contract and whether or not he could be left exposed.

From a team perspective they would probably prefer to lose Zack Smith, Dzingel or Pageau, as opposed to Methot. You've got to figure that Colin White joins the Sens after Boston College gets eliminated, and in theory he would likely be able to replace some of the peskiness of Zack Smith, and some of the PK of Pageau next season.

Either way they will lose something, but I'd be willing to bet they prefer to keep their top 4 intact for next season.

OF NOTE: Other thing to note, is how other sports have handled past expansion draft. And in this case, I'm speaking about the NBA and the Toronto Raptors/Vancouver Grizzlies. In each case, they did not take on players with term. They wanted players with one year left on their contracts, maximum two, that could be trade chips. They know full well that the 20+ players they choose in the expansion draft, will only have 5-6 around in 2 years, once the team takes shape. How does that impact the Sens... Zack Smith is a UFA and thus will be getting a multi year deal, whereas Lazar, Pageau, Dzingel are RFA who are more likely to get a 1-year or 2-year bridge deal. Thus would be my prediction that one of those 3 are claimed, keeping in mind that Methot would also have 2 years left a 4.9 per season.

 

[Uchiha]

Methot really is a problem...

 

[danielpalfredsson]

OF NOTE: Other thing to note, is how other sports have handled past expansion draft. And in this case, I'm speaking about the NBA and the Toronto Raptors/Vancouver Grizzlies. In each case, they did not take on players with term.

I fundamentally agree with your post. Going 4-4 should be the go to plan right now. Dzingel would suck to lose, but he is still easier to replace than Methot.

I don't think the Sens even attempt to protect Smith as they can make a handshake deal on a contract and sign it after the draft. There is always a chance Vegas "outbids" them, but they can also only sign 10 free agents total (apparently both RFAs and UFAs) so for a team like Ottawa that'll have a few decent players available who aren't RFAs or UFAs, they might not see the value in wasting one of those 10 slots on Smith.

The smart thing for Vegas to do from a competition standpoint would be to draft all the most valuable players trade wise, trade as many of them possible for picks+prospects, bottom out for 3+ years and select in the top 4 of the draft as a result while building up a deep prospect pool. But that might not be the most realistic thing. If you have just spent 500 million on a franchise and are told by the commissioner that they've made drastic changes to the expansion draft in order to allow your team a shot at being competitive out of the gate, are you going to accept your GM tanking? Probably not.

Because of this, I don't think it is as cut and dry that Ryan wouldn't be selected if we go 4-4. There won't be many proven offensive players. Prior to this season he has been pretty consistent as a low end 1st line/strong 2nd line producer. There aren't many strong forwards offensively available to Vegas as it is now, and teams haven't even begun trading to protect themselves further against the draft. Vegas will have maximum cap flexibility and won't have to pay any star prospects for a few years, so they can easily consider taking on Ryan's cap hit in order to get themselves a top 6 forward they otherwise may not have gotten through free agency.

 

[saskriders]

I am leaning towards:

Trade Ceci and Lazar for a top 6 forward

Protect:

Turris
Stone
Hoffman
Brassard
Dzingel
Top 6 trade
Pageau

Karlsson
Methot
Phaneuf


If we are going to lose a defenceman why not do it on our own terms and upgrade the top 6?

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

IMO Phanuef will waive his NMC. He's a low key guy, and I assume he would prefer to play in Vegas, especially if his wife works at times in LA.

Phaneuf's trade from the Leafs. Apparently Phanuef had listed 10 teams he would agree to traded too.
3 California, at least 2 in NYC and Ottawa was included.
Why was Ottawa included? Phanuef though it was not possible that the budget minded Sens would ever trade for him. So Phanuef was shocked and disappointed (at least initially) that he traded to Ottawa.

Phanuef knows Vegas at his 7m will not draft him, so to make the Sens stronger you have to think he will waive his NMC for the draft.

I could see this happening. I can also see Ottawa leaving Phaneuf and Ryan unprotected and I could see Vegas picking Ryan over Phaneuf.

 

[jason2020]

IMO Phanuef will waive his NMC. He's a low key guy, and I assume he would prefer to play in Vegas, especially if his wife works at times in LA.

Phaneuf's trade from the Leafs. Apparently Phanuef had listed 10 teams he would agree to traded too.
3 California, at least 2 in NYC and Ottawa was included.
Why was Ottawa included? Phanuef though it was not possible that the budget minded Sens would ever trade for him. So Phanuef was shocked and disappointed (at least initially) that he traded to Ottawa.

Phanuef knows Vegas at his 7m will not draft him, so to make the Sens stronger you have to think he will waive his NMC for the draft.

Not sure where your getting he was shocked and disappointed all legit reports as soon as he found out he was very excited.

 

[BurgoShark]

The simplest answer is to go 4-4 and protect Stone-Hoff-Turris-Brassard/Karl-Meth-Ceci-Phaneuf. Leaves guys like Ryan, Dzingel, Pageau, Lazar unprotected. Then the question becomes is one of those guys so much more valuable than the other that trading one of them for futures and losing 2 is better than losing only 1 for "nothing" via expansion.

Losing a winger like Ryan or Dzingel will hurt but it won't hurt as much as losing Methot right now.

Ideal situation would be Phaneuf waiving, but they can't really bank on that.

Sums I my opinion nicely. MacArthur will possibly also be exempt as teams can apply for special consideration for players who have missed significant time with career threatening injuries. In any case it is unlikely that LV picks a guy who has missed so much time with concussions.

We likely lose one of Pageau, Dzingel, Ryan or Lazar. We can live with that. Re-sign Smith after the expansion draft.

 

[BurgoShark]

OF NOTE: Other thing to note, is how other sports have handled past expansion draft. And in this case, I'm speaking about the NBA and the Toronto Raptors/Vancouver Grizzlies. In each case, they did not take on players with term. They wanted players with one year left on their contracts, maximum two, that could be trade chips. They know full well that the 20+ players they choose in the expansion draft, will only have 5-6 around in 2 years, once the team takes shape. How does that impact the Sens... Zack Smith is a UFA and thus will be getting a multi year deal, whereas Lazar, Pageau, Dzingel are RFA who are more likely to get a 1-year or 2-year bridge deal. Thus would be my prediction that one of those 3 are claimed, keeping in mind that Methot would also have 2 years left a 4.9 per season.

I also agree with this one. The expansion team would be right to build by acquiring players who will be hitting UFA in the next 2-3 seasons, so that they can stock up on picks and prospects over their first 3 trade deadlines. At the 2000 NHL expansion draft there was also a fair bit of pre-draft and post-draft dealing. Probably the best examples were both the Sharks and Sabres making deals in return for their goalies not being taken (Hasek, Biron, Nabokov).