The Luongo farewell tour

[Raistlin]

P.S. Name me a really good player who took a significant salary cut to play in Vancouver...

Off the top of my head. Dan Hamhuis, Baron, Mitchell were all under market value when they signed. All important pieces on D.

 

[ShelbyZ]

The fact that he's had injury issues over the past couple seasons makes it easier to stash him on LTIR, or at least for Vancouver to reacquire him and stash him if Florida won't do it. It also looks like a deal Arizona would do for the cap floor.

This.

I don't get why there is any debate about retirement vs LTIR(etirement) with Luongo...

Guy is entering the years of his contract that were basically tacked on to drive his cost down and probably never even meant to be played (IE just like Hossa and Zetterberg). He's also missed 67 games due to injury in the last 2 calendar years and (also similar to Hossa and Zetterberg) can probably use lingering issues from one of them to justify LTIR(etirement).

The LTIR will barely affect the Panthers as it can easily be absorbed in the 10% they're allowed to go over the cap in the summer and then 100% relieved at the start of the season, or they can work a trade to get rid of the contract. Vancouver probably doesn't care about the $800k a year cap hit for 3 seasons as they were either going to get that or the (now much bigger) recapture penalty.

He'd be a fool to simply outright retire when he can simply say "Ouch my back/knee/groin/equipment allergy/sensitivity to cold or hot temperature's/Reimer allergy/whatever is too much for me to continue playing" and sit home and collect an extra $3.618M that he probably never meant to earn when he signed the contract anyway.

TLDR: When Luongo is done playing hockey, there's no question he'll simply finish his contract on LTIR.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Wouldn't this be comparable to the Kovalchuk situation ? New Jersey originally had a harsh penalty and then it got changed to being forced to pick last in the first round.

Devils' penalty for Kovalchuk contract modified

I still think New Jersey not forfeiting their first-round pick in 2012 was the dumbest move, they risked losing the 10th overall pick in 2014 and having to pick at 30.

 

[Asheville]

If Luongo can't keep his sv% above .900, believe me he will retire. He has too much pride. Lu is done, he's slow as molasses and fragile as glass. he should retire asap as not to tarnish his legacy not only in florida but in the nhl.

Agreed. I think the bigger a Lu fan you are, the more you want to see him either turn back the clock or fall off a cliff. Feast or famine time. No interest in seeing him be a mediocre backup. Can't even envision him being okay with being a #2. Definitely believe he'll be a non-traveling goalie consultant/coach for the Panthers the moment he's done.

 

[Zippgunn]

Off the top of my head. Dan Hamhuis, Baron, Mitchell were all under market value when they signed. All important pieces on D.

Mitchell!!?? Are you kidding me? They let him walk for the sake of 2.5 mil and he was their de facto CAPTAIN f'rchrissake! One of the stupidest things this franchise has done and there's a long list of those. I felt good for him when he immediately won two Cups with L.A....

 

[StreetHawk]

Mitchell!!?? Are you kidding me? They let him walk for the sake of 2.5 mil and he was their de facto CAPTAIN f'rchrissake! One of the stupidest things this franchise has done and there's a long list of those. I felt good for him when he immediately won two Cups with L.A....

He was not cleared from his concussion when July 1 rolled around. Guy signed with LA in August. He took a hit from Malkin in early January.

5.5 months later he’s not cleared. So you can’t sit and wait on the guy.

Now if his contract still had a year on it, the Canucks would be forced to just wait it out or they could proceed with operating under the assumption that Mitchell would not return and thus deal with the cap situation during the season.

 

[Raistlin]

Mitchell!!?? Are you kidding me? They let him walk for the sake of 2.5 mil and he was their de facto CAPTAIN f'rchrissake! One of the stupidest things this franchise has done and there's a long list of those. I felt good for him when he immediately won two Cups with L.A....

??? I thought you asked if a player will sign in Vancouver below market value. Mitchell signed for 3.5 AAV for 4 yrs after his monster effort guiding the wild to the third round, i recall it was below what he could've made elsewhere.
Streethawk explained why we can't keep him, I wasn't too pleased that we had to part ways with him too, but the timing was not right.

 

[Zippgunn]

He was not cleared from his concussion when July 1 rolled around. Guy signed with LA in August. He took a hit from Malkin in early January.

5.5 months later he’s not cleared. So you can’t sit and wait on the guy.

Now if his contract still had a year on it, the Canucks would be forced to just wait it out or they could proceed with operating under the assumption that Mitchell would not return and thus deal with the cap situation during the season.

Meanwhile we sign Louie Eriksson who had two concussions in one season for $6 mil. Sorry I don't buy the concussion theory. What I think is more likely is that the Canucks had to chose between Willie and Kesler (who disliked each other intensely) and chose Kes. Whatever the case it was a huge mistake...

 

[StreetHawk]

Meanwhile we sign Louie Eriksson who had two concussions in one season for $6 mil. Sorry I don't buy the concussion theory. What I think is more likely is that the Canucks had to chose between Willie and Kesler (who disliked each other intensely) and chose Kes. Whatever the case it was a huge mistake...

Different management group.

Eriksson was cleared and played well before he was signed. Versus a guy who didn’t get cleared after 5.5 months.

If willie was healthy some team would have signed him in July. He simply wasn’t cleared. And teams aren’t in the business of signing players if they don’t clear concussion protocol.

 

[Zippgunn]

Different management group.

Eriksson was cleared and played well before he was signed. Versus a guy who didn’t get cleared after 5.5 months.

If willie was healthy some team would have signed him in July. He simply wasn’t cleared. And teams aren’t in the business of signing players if they don’t clear concussion protocol.

IIRC Willie stated that he was fine; I feel that the whole concussion thing was just an excuse which is why I brought up Louie. I heard rumours at that time that Kesler had basically said that it was him or Willie to management but I can't confirm them; certainly there were incidents between those two in practice. As for the whole (subjective) below market value thing it is, of course, a matter of opinion as to what actually constitutes a "discount" but certainly one could say that the higher the level of player skill the higher the overpayment on Vancouver's part over the last couple of decades or so. It is simply not a destination of choice for NHL players. IMHO, of course...

 

[Strangelove]

OK point by point then: No I didn't forsee the recapture penalty but I knew in my bones that this contract would cause endless trouble for the Canuck because it so blatantly circumvented the salary cap. It basically made Luongo untradeable and, naturally, he never had a season as good as the one before he signed the contract. Yes, I firmly believe that Lou is the most overrated goalie in history, the modern era's Mike Liut (who at least managed to win the Pearson award over Gretzky!). And anybody with half a brain knew that he wouldn't play out this contract yet I was castigated almost daily by Canuck fans (on CDC mind you) who swore he would play (and play at an elite level) until he was 42. He was a very good goalie sure but he was never a money goalie and has never been good enough to win either a championship or even an individual award. His one great accomplishment was his Olympic gold medal which required the best team in the world to be playing in front of him and even then he nearly blew it. If Crosby doesn't score that goal and some American puts one in he would have been tarred and feathered in Canada and if Burrows didn't bail his sorry butt out against Chicago he would have been largely responsible for the biggest playoff meltdown in history. Ridiculously overrated and overhyped...

Lol, no one cares what may or may not have happened at CDC bro!

Meanwhile, at the time it was signed, the entire civilized world thought the Luongo contract was a great one.

P.S. Name me a really good player who took a significant salary cut to play in Vancouver...

Are you crapping me?

At the time, all the top players on your Vancouver Canucks were taking pay-cuts to keep the band together.

Heck, at one point Ryan Kesler took a lot of heat from the union for pushing others to follow him in taking a pay-cut.

(yes, that Ryan Kesler!)

But no one would be surprised, I suppose, if CDC was oblivious to all of this...

 

[Zippgunn]

Lol, no one cares what may or may not have happened at CDC bro!

Meanwhile, at the time it was signed, the entire civilized world thought the Luongo contract was a great one.




Are you crapping me?

At the time, all the top players on your Vancouver Canucks were taking pay-cuts to keep the band together.

Heck, at one point Ryan Kesler took a lot of heat for pushing others to follow him in taking a pay-cut.

But no one would be surprised, I suppose, if CDC was oblivious to all of this...

Yes I agree that CDC is weird, it's almost like a parallel universe where everything is reversed. 90% of the posters here would have been permabanned there eons ago...

 

[Rowlet]

Meanwhile we sign Louie Eriksson who had two concussions in one season for $6 mil. Sorry I don't buy the concussion theory. What I think is more likely is that the Canucks had to chose between Willie and Kesler (who disliked each other intensely) and chose Kes. Whatever the case it was a huge mistake...

Van wanted to give him 1 year, that offer was on the table but Mitchell wanted 2, it was well documented that the Canucks made him an offer but LA caved and gave him 2

also Gillis didnt sign Eriksson so I dont know what that has to do with anything

and for Canucks who took a pay cut, Burrows, Sedins, Kesler, Bieksa, Malhotra, Hamhuis and Mitchell all took pay cuts for vancouver

 

[Zippgunn]

Van wanted to give him 1 year, that offer was on the table but Mitchell wanted 2, it was well documented that the Canucks made him an offer but LA caved and gave him 2

also Gillis didnt sign Eriksson so I dont know what that has to do with anything

and for Canucks who took a pay cut, Burrows, Sedins, Kesler, Bieksa, Malhotra, Hamhuis and Mitchell all took pay cuts for vancouver

Sedins took a pay cut? I give up...

 

[Rowlet]

Sedins took a pay cut? I give up...

Yes, they did, they signed a 5 year 6.1m each deal when they both could have gotten 7.5 on the open market

Outside of Benn and ELC's, I'm pretty sure that 6.1m is the lowest pay that any Art Ross winner has gotten post-lockout. Joe Thorton was being paid 6.5 in '06 but the Sedins 6.1 was a mere 18% of the salary cap combined. Thorton's 06 season, he was paid 16.6% of the salary cap on his own and Malkin made 8.7 million in his second Art Ross winning season

 

[mja]

TLDR: When Luongo is done playing hockey, there's no question he'll simply finish his contract on LTIR.

You're probably right, but there's no guarantee of that, and there hasn't quite been a case like Luongo's before. For one thing, unlike in every other case, LTIR doesn't really help his current team any more than him just straight retiring. Also, IIRC, in every situation that has occurred previously, the player was being LTIRed by the organization that had signed him to the deal or was dealt with him on or definitely going on LTIR, meaning the player was still part of a team he felt loyalty towards.

Luongo has no such loyalty to the Canucks at this time. It's not like things ended all that well there. He might frankly just decide to hang them up and be done. He's made over 95 million dollars already and his net worth is estimated near 50 million dollars, meaning that after taxes, we're talking like an extra 1% a year or so at best and less than that for each year he hangs on. It's almost at the not even worth it stage, if it isn't in fact already there.

Meanwhile, the Panthers cap penalty would be around 1 million if he retired this off-season, which in the grand scheme of things isn't a big deal, but if he were to retire a year or two after that it would be downright negligible (literally >80K or ZERO), meaning it frankly benefits the Panthers more to just let him retire and not have to deal with the hassle of having his caphit on the books to work around. It wouldn't even be impossible to LTIR him for one year, and then have him retire. That would probably be Florida's best option, cap-wise.

There's even a twisted option in which a Vancouver rival can make a trade for him, giving up a mid round pick, and then have him retire, particularly in a year or two, just to f*** up the Canucks cap situation with minimal impact to their own cap situation. It's extremely unlikely just for reasons of decorum, but still completely possible.

 

[Rowlet]

You're probably right, but there's no guarantee of that, and there hasn't quite been a case like Luongo's before. For one thing, unlike in every other case, LTIR doesn't really help his current team any more than him just straight retiring. Also, IIRC, in every situation that has occurred previously, the player was being LTIRed by the organization that had signed him to the deal or was dealt with him on or definitely going on LTIR, meaning the player was still part of a team he felt loyalty towards.

Luongo has no such loyalty to the Canucks at this time. It's not like things ended all that well there. He might frankly just decide to hang them up and be done. He's made over 95 million dollars already and his net worth is estimated near 50 million dollars, meaning that after taxes, we're talking like an extra 1% a year or so at best and less than that for each year he hangs on. It's almost at the not even worth it stage, if it isn't in fact already there.

Meanwhile, the Panthers cap penalty would be around 1 million if he retired this off-season, which in the grand scheme of things isn't a big deal, but if he were to retire a year or two after that it would be downright negligible (literally >80K or ZERO), meaning it frankly benefits the Panthers more to just let him retire and not have to deal with the hassle of having his caphit on the books to work around. It wouldn't even be impossible to LTIR him for one year, and then have him retire. That would probably be Florida's best option, cap-wise.

There's even a twisted option in which a Vancouver rival can make a trade for him, giving up a mid round pick, and then have him retire, particularly in a year or two, just to **** up the Canucks cap situation with minimal impact to their own cap situation. It's extremely unlikely just for reasons of decorum, but still completely possible.

retiring means he doesn't get a free $2,000,000, doubt he hates the Canucks enough to give away two million dollars that he rightfully is owed

 

[Shawnofthedeadz]

This is going to be interesting. His actual salary drops to 1.6, 1, & 1 million for the next three seasons. I'm sure they can find something to LTIR him on, but that doesn't help out the Panthers very much, right? Instead of eating up ~4.5 in cap space they'd have to work around for 3 more years, it would be better for them if he just retired and to take the million dollar or so recapture penalty for those 3 seasons.

It sucks for Vancouver though. I can't find a good recapture penalty calculator on the internet anymore, but I think they'd be on the hook for a little over 3 million in dead cap space for 3 seasons if he were to retire at the end of the season. If he tries to go another season or two, it gets better for Florida but worse for Vancouver.

I've always been curious as to whether or not the NHL would actually impose an 8 million dollar penalty on Vancouver if Luongo retires with a year left on his deal. In a twisted way, that's the scenario I'm rooting for, just to see how it plays out. Sorry, Nucks fans.

Revenge of the Luongo, his way of getting back for being run out of town after all he did.

 

[Bleedred]

I think he'll play one more year, unless his body does not allow it. If he keeps getting injured then maybe not.

I don't see him playing beyond 2019-2020 though, if he does play beyond this year.

To be fair, he hasn't played quite as bad on the eye test, but this is something that's quite common when a goalie has only played 13 games. So I expect either the save percentage to come up or the soft goals to start adding up, as they have for Corey Crawford or even Louis Domingue recently, after having a low count, but a mediocre or poor save percentage.

Regardless, I don't think .903% after 13 games is nearly his worst 13 game start to a season and .903% this year is probably like .908% or .909% or so in most recent years, considering the league average save percentage this year is currently at .903%. If Luongo sustains these numbers over a full season or even after playing 30 games, I think it may be fair to write him off as done, but more so because of age. If he were younger, it could just be a bad season or a down year.

.903% after 13 games doesn't mean he's done, but the injuries in recent years might be indicative that the end is near, along with being 39 years old and missing significant time with injury the last 3 straight years?

 

[Bleedred]

I currently have Luongo down for 9 stoppable goals on 35 against. That's around 26%. Most of the guys with a save percentage in the very .900's%, I have at close to 30%, but there's many average guys in save percentage around 25%. As far as backups go, it's still a bit all over the place, as well for guys who still haven't played a lot of games. This may also be because Luongo still hasn't played many games. Luongo has played more than most backups, but he hasn't played as much as most starters either.

For comparison, I have Reimer down for 14 stoppable goals on 48 allowed, which is 29% and right in the neighborhood where the guys in the lower .900's or ,890's are at. I think the percentage for Jake Allen and Mike Smith are well into the 30's though.

I have Hutchinson down for 6 on 14 total goals allowed. That's 43%, but he only played 4 games and started just 3.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Off the top of my head. Dan Hamhuis, Baron, Mitchell were all under market value when they signed. All important pieces on D.

Also Kesler @ 5 mill, Sedins @ 6.1, Burrows @ 2. Salo also took a huge discount on a one year, 2 mill contract in 2011-2012.

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

The cap recapture penalty has to be the dumbest thing Bettman has been involved with.

- It punishes what was a legal trade at the time after the fact
- It makes a team pay for a player they no longer have under contract
- They could be forced to pay far more than what the player's salary currently is
- If the player retires later and closer to when he was supposed to, the team is punished more
- It is an overly complicated mess compared to the obvious solution of just putting in a rule from then on that contracts can't decline by that much, and saying c'est la vie to the to the Luongo type deals that got away with it

 

[Anaheim4ever]

The biggest Luongo moment for me is when he gives up the series clinching goal to Scott Niedermayer in 2007. Thanks Luongo

 

[Field of Dreams]

LMAO @Vancover Good luck with those Petterson, Boeser etc resignings.

Vancouver fans - when trolls resort to saying how overpaid your core young players will be, that is a good sign. Tear drops may stain clothing, my suggestion is to use the Calder trophy to catch them.

 

[Field of Dreams]

The cap recapture penalty has to be the dumbest thing Bettman has been involved with.

- It punishes what was a legal trade at the time after the fact
- It makes a team pay for a player they no longer have under contract
- They could be forced to pay far more than what the player's salary currently is
- If the player retires later and closer to when he was supposed to, the team is punished more
- It is an overly complicated mess compared to the obvious solution of just putting in a rule from then on that contracts can't decline by that much, and saying c'est la vie to the to the Luongo type deals that got away with it

It sets a precedent. In the future, a sharp capologist is bound to find a way to circumvent the cap. If teams know that the nhl can introduce a rule which punishes these strategies, they will be less inclined to do so.