Blue Jays Discussion: The long, slow march of a winter off-season

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

We should just save the money we have this offseason to be honest unless we go after a guy like Cole and front load it so we have money to pay the kids later. I would even move Grichuk and go bare bones on the payroll.

See what Tellez can do at 1st, Let Jansen and Mcquire battle, and let all of the AAAA outfielders battle it out and see who comes out of it.

Fill the bench out with some good veteran guys that you can sign for cheap near spring training.

I completely disagree. You’ve started the clock on the control years for Vlad, Bo, Biggio and Jansen, and like it or not, that means a competition window has been opened.

You don’t spend for spending sake, but if you can improve you roster and major league infrastructure (I.e. signing the second best catcher in baseball, signing a 29 year break out SP, adding a prime middle of the order bat) you do it. The amount of payroll flexibility this franchise has going forward is ridiculous.

 

[dredeye]

Tsutsugo has been posted. I wonder if we’ll post

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Leafin]

I'd really like to see us take a chance on Tsutsugo. Even if he comes over and flops it would be nice to see the Jays dipping into that market. Lately a few of them have had injury problems but if you hit on one that can really help your team.

 

[phillipmike]

I'd really like to see us take a chance on Tsutsugo. Even if he comes over and flops it would be nice to see the Jays dipping into that market. Lately a few of them have had injury problems but if you hit on one that can really help your team.

 

[Leafin]

Having never seen Tsutsugo play id be surprised if he's any worse defensively than Tellez.

I suppose they can pay for Moustakas if they want more of a certain thing defensively.

 

[Advanced stats]

Cherington confirmed to Pittsburgh

 

[SpezDispenser]

What is Danny Jansen's value on the open market? Could we trade Jansen in a package for an outfielder (a positional need) and go with Grandal/Mcguire? We need at least a few vets so I think Grandal could be good

I'm not sure, but one of the best hitting Cs in the game and also one of the better pitch framers out there would be a really solid addition to both the batting order and for the pitchers.

 

[Cor]

Ugh.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Maybe we see some more Jays-Pirates trades now.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

Sucks indeed. Knew he would go at some point but i thought it would be fore a better situation than Pittsburgh.

Ugh.

Maybe we see some more Jays-Pirates trades now.

makes sense. Archer (A Shapiro Draft pick), Marte, Frazier, and Bell could be good options. Im sure Cherington has guys on our team that he likes whom he brought in.

Trades would make sense.

 

[The Nemesis]

Here are the MVP Award vote totals

Some nutter gave Kevin Pillar a 10th place NL MVP vote.

He wasn't even the best or most significant player on his own damn team. (standard disclaimer about the fact that I'm not using WAR as a be-all, end-all MVP decider) He was tied for 3rd in fWAR among Giants hitters with Buster Posey (Behind Mike Yastremski and Evan Longoria) and tied for 4th among all Giants players in fWAR (Madison Bumgarner also beat him out).

I get it. It's just a 10th place vote. It didn't change the race or cost anyone their spot in the heirarchy at the top end or whatever. But come on. If writers want to be taken seriously for their ability to analyze and make quantifiable statements about the game, you can't tell me that there's any universe in which Kevin Pillar is the 50th most valuable player to his team in the NL, let alone the 10th.

Yelich, Bellinger, Marte, Rendon, Arenado, Acuna, Grandal, Alonso, Bryant, Realmuto, Muncy, Soto, Freeman, Tatis, Escobar, Anderson, Donaldson, deGrom, Scherzer, Buehler, Ryu, Strasburg, Flaherty, Nola, Bumgarner, Yastrzemski, Posey

That's 27 names including 3 other Giants who performed better than Pillar did this season by a significant margin. And that's also with me just using some really soft "I'll know it when I see it" type recollections based on a combo of statistical performance and visceral buzz/impact (and excluding several guys who might have been high on the statistical ladder but were maybe the 3rd-5th most impressive guy on their team) and acknowledging that I'm probably forgetting or unfairly omitting some people.

Come on... freaking Kevin Pillar? This is a guy who couldn't even muster an MVP vote in his very best year in 2015 when he was basically teleporting jesus in the OF and almost a league-average bat. But now he gets one?

 

[kb]

Here are the MVP Award vote totals

Some nutter gave Kevin Pillar a 10th place NL MVP vote.

He wasn't even the best or most significant player on his own damn team. (standard disclaimer about the fact that I'm not using WAR as a be-all, end-all MVP decider) He was tied for 3rd in fWAR among Giants hitters with Buster Posey (Behind Mike Yastremski and Evan Longoria) and tied for 4th among all Giants players in fWAR (Madison Bumgarner also beat him out).

I get it. It's just a 10th place vote. It didn't change the race or cost anyone their spot in the heirarchy at the top end or whatever. But come on. If writers want to be taken seriously for their ability to analyze and make quantifiable statements about the game, you can't tell me that there's any universe in which Kevin Pillar is the 50th most valuable player to his team in the NL, let alone the 10th.

Yelich, Bellinger, Marte, Rendon, Arenado, Acuna, Grandal, Alonso, Bryant, Realmuto, Muncy, Soto, Freeman, Tatis, Escobar, Anderson, Donaldson, deGrom, Scherzer, Buehler, Ryu, Strasburg, Flaherty, Nola, Bumgarner, Yastrzemski, Posey

That's 27 names including 3 other Giants who performed better than Pillar did this season by a significant margin. And that's also with me just using some really soft "I'll know it when I see it" type recollections based on a combo of statistical performance and visceral buzz/impact (and excluding several guys who might have been high on the statistical ladder but were maybe the 3rd-5th most impressive guy on their team) and acknowledging that I'm probably forgetting or unfairly omitting some people.

Come on... freaking Kevin Pillar? This is a guy who couldn't even muster an MVP vote in his very best year in 2015 when he was basically teleporting jesus in the OF and almost a league-average bat. But now he gets one?

It was Keith Law.

 

[Discoverer]

Here are the MVP Award vote totals

Some nutter gave Kevin Pillar a 10th place NL MVP vote.

He wasn't even the best or most significant player on his own damn team. (standard disclaimer about the fact that I'm not using WAR as a be-all, end-all MVP decider) He was tied for 3rd in fWAR among Giants hitters with Buster Posey (Behind Mike Yastremski and Evan Longoria) and tied for 4th among all Giants players in fWAR (Madison Bumgarner also beat him out).

I get it. It's just a 10th place vote. It didn't change the race or cost anyone their spot in the heirarchy at the top end or whatever. But come on. If writers want to be taken seriously for their ability to analyze and make quantifiable statements about the game, you can't tell me that there's any universe in which Kevin Pillar is the 50th most valuable player to his team in the NL, let alone the 10th.

Yelich, Bellinger, Marte, Rendon, Arenado, Acuna, Grandal, Alonso, Bryant, Realmuto, Muncy, Soto, Freeman, Tatis, Escobar, Anderson, Donaldson, deGrom, Scherzer, Buehler, Ryu, Strasburg, Flaherty, Nola, Bumgarner, Yastrzemski, Posey

That's 27 names including 3 other Giants who performed better than Pillar did this season by a significant margin. And that's also with me just using some really soft "I'll know it when I see it" type recollections based on a combo of statistical performance and visceral buzz/impact (and excluding several guys who might have been high on the statistical ladder but were maybe the 3rd-5th most impressive guy on their team) and acknowledging that I'm probably forgetting or unfairly omitting some people.

Come on... freaking Kevin Pillar? This is a guy who couldn't even muster an MVP vote in his very best year in 2015 when he was basically teleporting jesus in the OF and almost a league-average bat. But now he gets one?

He's basically given three reasons for it, and they're all amazing:

1. Ribbies!
2. It's a 10th place vote... who cares?
3. YOU DON'T WATCH THE GIANTS ENOUGH SO YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND!

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays' interest in Grandal offers glimpse into off-season approach - Sportsnet.ca

“I’m sure a lot of teams have interest in Yasmani Grandal,” GM Ross Atkins said Thursday before leaving the GM Meetings. “You could paint a similar picture that I could paint based on his performance and things that have happened in the past and where he’s been and what he’s done.”

OK, let’s paint it. At the plate, Grandal’s a switch-hitter with a lifetime .348 on-base percentage. He has four consecutive seasons with at least 22 homers, including 28 last year. By FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement, he has five straight seasons of 4.0-plus WAR. Defensively he’s durable with well-regarded framing skills and the versatility to play first base. He has played for winners, he just turned 31 and he’s not linked to draft-pick compensation.

All told, it’s a truly appealing combination. But chances are the Reds, Mets, Astros, Angels, Rays and Brewers all think so, too, and those teams don’t have two catchers of their own available in-house.

Realistically, the chances of the Blue Jays becoming the high bidder on Grandal seem low, but unlikely isn’t impossible. There are also scenarios where they do become motivated to add Grandal.

Hypothetically speaking, the Blue Jays could add pitching at a lower cost than expected. They could then sign Grandal to catch and play first while optioning McGuire to start the season.

Or, if a rival team makes a more enticing offer for one of Toronto’s young catchers, the Blue Jays would be more motivated to replenish catching depth. Perhaps at that point they’d turn to Grandal.

Again, those possibilities now seem remote. Read into the Blue Jays’ interest at your own risk. But like any front office looking for improved offence, they owe it to themselves to explore the possibility, even if it never leads to a deal.

 

[kb]

Obviously a small sample size alert, but Reese McGuire has a lifetime OPS+ of 133, and ridiculous defensive skills. So if the offers are huge on Jansen, you could still run a platoon of McGuire and Maile, while dealing Jansen for pitching help before even considering Grandal.

 

[Kurtz]

I mean, obviously we're not getting Grandal.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Epictetus]

I mean, obviously we're not getting Grandal.

It's too good to be true.

 

[Kurtz]

It's too good to be true.

That, and it's just the complete opposite of every move that Shapiro and Atkins have ever done.

These guys are risk averse value seekers. Grandal is going to have a bidding war over him and will end up with a huge contract.

That's not to mention that catcher is our strongest organizational position right now.

 

[Discoverer]

That, and it's just the complete opposite of every move that Shapiro and Atkins have ever done.

These guys are risk averse value seekers. Grandal is going to have a bidding war over him and will end up with a huge contract.

That's not to mention that catcher is our strongest organizational position right now.

I'm not confident they'll spend anything particularly big, but I think it's worth noting once again that they've never really had much money to spend. (In Cleveland because their payrolls were mostly hilariously low and in Toronto because a huge chunk of payroll was already spent while they were here.)

They have an opportunity with the team going forward that they've never really had. They just have to make it count.

 

[The Nemesis]

I haven't seen a complete list of teams on the chopping block, but a couple of articles say that the focus is mostly on cutting from the short-season leagues. I worry what happens with Vancouver because although I wouldn't see the team eliminated given that it is a model franchise and a successful business (as far as I know. It seems like it would be difficult for it to be struggling given that it's attendance and attention levels are well above the norm for an nwl team), I'm concerned that cutting up parts of the league could stress it to the breaking point. And the c's can't exist if they have no one in the area to play against.

I understand that mlb teams may not universally be able to or need to bear the burden if having like 8+ affiliates and hundreds of affiliate players, most of whom will never come close to sniffing the majors, but at some point they have to bear some of that brunt simply because it's necessary to the operational health of the minor leagues. If the alternative is potentially that the system collapses and they have to rebuilt it from scratch, I cant see how that's the better option. I also can't see how they don't see the value in growing baseball through the minors when in many cases those teams are in places where it'd be those fans' only option to watch pro ball live. A person here isn't likely to go to Seattle more than once or twice in a season if even that many times because of travel time and expense. But for the price of one 1st level Mariners ticket they can go to like 5 Canadians games and not drive 3+hours across the border or necessitate flying from Bellingham to Seattle.

Another thing I that I've seen it suggested that mlb might press to ditch the short-season format for those leagues that use it. Good luck making that work in the NWL where 80% of constituent teams play in areas where it rains far too much in April and may to guarantee being able to carry a proper full season schedule. Seattle has always had parks with a roof for a reason.

This whole situation is a bad look for mlb.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I haven't seen a complete list of teams on the chopping block, but a couple of articles say that the focus is mostly on cutting from the short-season leagues. I worry what happens with Vancouver because although I wouldn't see the team eliminated given that it is a model franchise and a successful business (as far as I know. It seems like it would be difficult for it to be struggling given that it's attendance and attention levels are well above the norm for an nwl team), I'm concerned that cutting up parts of the league could stress it to the breaking point. And the c's can't exist if they have no one in the area to play against.

I understand that mlb teams may not universally be able to or need to bear the burden if having like 8+ affiliates and hundreds of affiliate players, most of whom will never come close to sniffing the majors, but at some point they have to bear some of that brunt simply because it's necessary to the operational health of the minor leagues. If the alternative is potentially that the system collapses and they have to rebuilt it from scratch, I cant see how that's the better option. I also can't see how they don't see the value in growing baseball through the minors when in many cases those teams are in places where it'd be those fans' only option to watch pro ball live. A person here isn't likely to go to Seattle more than once or twice in a season if even that many times because of travel time and expense. But for the price of one 1st level Mariners ticket they can go to like 5 Canadians games and not drive 3+hours across the border or necessitate flying from Bellingham to Seattle.

Another thing I that I've seen it suggested that mlb might press to ditch the short-season format for those leagues that use it. Good luck making that work in the NWL where 80% of constituent teams play in areas where it rains far too much in April and may to guarantee being able to carry a proper full season schedule. Seattle has always had parks with a roof for a reason.

This whole situation is a bad look for mlb.

I think it is more likely they just cut from rookie ball. It's either you are good enough to play for A-short or you are stuck playing in the lower tier rookie ball until you are ready.

 

[The Nemesis]

I think it is more likely they just cut from rookie ball. It's either you are good enough to play for A-short or you are stuck playing in the lower tier rookie ball until you are ready.

The NWL was mentioned in one of the pieces I read and I found a NYTimes piece that gives a list of teams on the prospective chopping block and it includes Salem-Kaizer and Tri-City out of the NWL. The league is already only 8 teams. I don't think it would survive properly as a 6-team league.

The apparent cut list is found at a Ny Times piece (you can sign up for a free account to read the piece, but it offers little insight beyond the list itself, which is awkwardly sorted alphabetically by the team's city/location name and not by league or MLB affiliate):


Eastern League (AA) (would be reduced to 10 teams)
Binghamton Rumble Ponies (NY Mets)
Erie SeaWolves (Detroit Tigers)


Southern League (AA) (would be reduced to 8 teams)
Chattanooga Lookouts (Cincinnati Reds)
Jackson Generals (Arizona Diamondbacks)


Florida State League (A+) (would be reduced to 10 teams)
Daytona Tortugas (Cincinnati Reds)
Florida Fire Frogs (Atlanta Braves)


California League (A+) (would be reduced to 7 teams)
Lancaster Jethawks (Colorado Rockies

Carolina League (A+) (would be reduced to 9 teams)
Frederick Keys (Baltimore Orioles)

South Atlantic League (A) (would be reduced to 10 teams)
Hagerstown Suns (Washington Nationals)
Lexington Legends (KC Royals)
West Virginia Power (Seattle Mariners)


Midwest League (A) (Would be reduced to 13 teams)
Burlington Bees (LA Angels)
Clinton Lumber Kings (Miami Marlins)
Quad Cities River Bandits (Houston Astros)


NY Penn League (short A) (would be reduced to 6 teams)
Auburn Doubledays (Washington Nationals)
Batavia Muckdogs (Miami Marlins)
Connecticut Tigers (Detroit Tigers)
Lowell Spinners (Boston Red Sox)
Mahoning Valley Scrappers (Cleveland Indians)
State College Spikes (St. Louis Cardinals)
Staten Island Yankees (NY Yankees)
Williamsport Crosscutters (Philadelphia Phillies)


Northwest League (short A) (would be reduced to 6 teams)
Salem-Keizer Volcanoes (SF Giants)
Tri-City Dust Devils (SD Padres)


Pioneer League (Rookie+) (would be eliminated entirely)
Billings Mustangs (Cincinnati Reds)
Grand Junction Rockies (Colorado Rockies)
Great Falls Voyagers (Chicago White Sox)
Idaho Falls Chuckers (KC Royals)
Missoula PaddleHeads (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Ogden Raptors (LA Dodgers)
Orem Owiz (LA Angels)
Rocky Mountain Vibes (Milwaukee Brewers)


Appalachian League (Rookie) (would be reduced to a single team: the Pulaski Yankees)
Bluefield Blue Jays (Toronto Blue Jays)
Bristol Pirates (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Burlington Royals (KC Royals)
Danville Braves (Atlanta Braves)
Elizabethton Twins (Minnesota Twins)
Greeneville Reds (Cincinnati Reds)
Johnson City Cardinals (St. Louis Cardinals)
Kingsport Mets (NY Mets)
Princeton Rays (Tampa Bay Rays)

For those keeping track, the cuts by parent organization are:
Cutting 4 teams:
Reds (AA, A+, R+, R)

Cutting 3 teams
Royals (A, R+, R)

Cutting 2 teams
Angels (A, R+)
Braves (A+, R)
Cardinals (SS, R)
Diamondbacks (AA, R+)
Marlins (A, SS)
Mets (AA, R))
Nationals (A, SS)
Rockies (A+, R+)
Tigers (AA)

Cutting 1 team
Astros (A)
Blue Jays (R)
Brewers (R+)
Dodgers (R+)
Giants (SS)
Indians (SS)
Mariners (A)
Orioles (A+)
Padres (SS)
Phillies (SS)
Pirates (R)
Rays (R)
Red Sox (SS)
Twins (R)
White Sox (R+)
Yankees (SS)

Not cutting any affiliates
Athletics
Cubs
Rangers

This doesn't even make any sense in a "evening affiliation amounts" out sort of way because it's not like the teams cutting more ties have more affiliates.

According to the MiLB website, the Reds have 8 affiliate teams right now from AAA down to AZL and DSL Rookie ball. They would literally be chopping out half of their affiliations. And even if we assume that they would replace the AA Chattanooga Lookouts with another AA club (somewhat of a historical travesty given that the team has operated as an MLB affiliate since 1932 and has been an active baseball team dating all the way back to 1885), they're still down to just 5 levels of ball in their org (AAA, AA, A, Arizona (summer) League Rookie and Dominican Summer League Rookie)

Meanwhile the A's are not said to be dropping anyone and currently have teams at all 7 major levels (AAA, AA, A+, A, Short-Season, Rookie, DSL Rookie.

What also makes it funny is that MLB likely will twist this as "we're not actually killing teams, just severing ties. The clubs are free to continue operating independently!" even though the reality is that no minor league team in a league stocked with affiliate MLB prospects is going to be able to sustain itself competitively, financially, or interest-wise with non-affiliate cast-offs or undrafted prospects. Especially not when MLB is also saying they intend to establish a "Dream League" which will specifically be geared to be a league-run showcase circuit to provide playing time and scouting opportunities for MLB clubs to watch the best in undrafted talent trying to earn a shot at an MLB contract. So congratulations chopping block teams! You lose the biggest reason you exist, a huge factor in fan interest, and the most significant potential alternative to your current existence all in one fell swoop!

I do get the basic thesis of the plan. The minor league system is quite bloated. They would do well to cut a level or two of rookie ball and have maybe 7 tiers (AAA, AA, A+, A, Short-A/A-, Rookie, Summer League Rookie) and have every org have exactly that setup. If you need to consolidate geographically disparate leagues somewhat to make it work, then use the savings from cut affiliates to subsidize travel in the name of providing your prospects with the best possible competition for their development.

But this sort of apparently willy-nilly way that they're just plucking parts of leagues off the map could make entire swaths of the minor league structure collapse in on itself when half your below-A+ leagues find themselves unable to sustain fan interest because they're playing in a league that's only 6 teams big or one where it's 10 teams but 3 or 4 of them are non-affiliate scrub rosters that are probably going under inside of 5 years. And the Minor leagues can't consolidate flagging sister levels on their own because if they could it would've happened already. The NWL is geographically limited the way it is because you can't just have teams from Washington and Vancouver trekking out to northern or central California or Nevada or whatever on buses. It's just not feasible.

The other thing that would seemingly help this out is to move the draft up. Instead of conducting it in the summer, do it in the MLB off-season just like the other sports do. If the draft was in February, you could have your drafted players ready to report to even the full-season minor league levels right at the start of the season and end some of the shenanigans where R+ and SS clubs play like 3 weeks of games before reinforcements of drafted prospects show up. For the guys that would be going to short run June-August leagues, have them stay in the team's training facility and work out with scouts and coaches for April and May, or turn one of the rookie leagues into an early-SS league that runs from late March through May and ends just before summer leagues and short-A leagues begin. I'll absolutely bet it'd be a lot more complicated than I'm making it sound in suggesting this idea, but certainly exploring something like this has to be better than what they appear to be doing right now. I mean, most rookie leagues don't charge for attendance or anything and are operating basically as open inter-squad practices rather than a for-profit gate-driven spectator sport. So it's not like "but that idea wouldn't make any money!" is really a concern at that particular level of baseball development.