The Jarmo Thread

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I think we're about level with Philadelphia at this point, but I don't know if that makes us top-3 at the moment. I think we're on the bubble for top-3 status, not for a playoffs position.

Trouble is I'm not sure those two things are mutually exclusive. In other words, I think you can be on the bubble for being top 3 in the Metro and still be on the playoff bubble. Because...

I think the problem is a lot of people attribute "bubble team" to being a bad thing, largely because some posters seem to be fairly overtly implying that being a "bubble team" is a bad thing.

Your point is well taken. 2/3+ of the teams in the NHL are a "bubble team."

Being a bubble team is bad if you end up getting popped.

You're right that there are many bubble teams. The positive side of that is that it means you can be a good team and a bubble team simultaneously. The bad part is that some good teams won't make the playoffs, and it could be you.

I understand that the counter to that is two-fold: 1) that nothing is set in stone and teams you expect to be playoff teams sometimes end up not being; and 2) the Jackets have a recent history of qualifying for the playoffs despite being pretty regularly on the bubble. Please accept my apologies if I do not take much solace from either of those things as relates to the future.

 

[Viqsi]

NHL offseason by the numbers: Which teams have improved the most (and least)?

In his latest column, Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic says his model has CBJ with the fifth-worst offseason in the league to this point, just ahead of the Islanders and Lightning and behind the Sharks and Leafs:



So there's at least one person out there saying the offseason has been a net negative for the Blue Jackets.

His model doesn't do a very good job of accounting for injuries (EDIT: predictive injuries, to be specific), so naturally it's going to overstate the impact - particularly of losing Murray. And in an ideal world in which Murray isn't constantly playing half a season or less, yes, losing Murray for that little would be a significant negative impact. But we don't live in that ideal world - and if we did, we'd have gotten a much better trade return in any case, assuming we traded him at all.

 

[Viqsi]

Trouble is I'm not sure those two things are mutually exclusive. In other words, I think you can be on the bubble for being top 3 in the Metro and still be on the playoff bubble. Because...



Being a bubble team is bad if you end up getting popped.

You're right that there are many bubble teams. The positive side of that is that it means you can be a good team and a bubble team simultaneously. The bad part is that some good teams won't make the playoffs, and it could be you.

I understand that the counter to that is two-fold: 1) that nothing is set in stone and teams you expect to be playoff teams sometimes end up not being; and 2) the Jackets have a recent history of qualifying for the playoffs despite being pretty regularly on the bubble. Please accept my apologies if I do not take much solace from either of those things as relates to the future.

It's hypothetically possible, but at that point it's kind of unlikely. If you're competing for the top of the division, missing the playoffs is generally considered an unusually bad result. (And that implies more nuance in the designation than I think folks were using.)

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

It's hypothetically possible, but at that point it's kind of unlikely. If you're competing for the top of the division, missing the playoffs is generally considered an unusually bad result. (And that implies more nuance in the designation than I think folks were using.)

Ultimately, your results shape people's perception of you. If you want to stop having people perceive you as a bubble team, you're probably going to have to stop being a bubble team.

 

[Viqsi]

Ultimately, your results shape people's perception of you. If you want to stop having people perceive you as a bubble team, you're probably going to have to stop being a bubble team.

True... but just because perceptions and reputation will sometimes lag behind reality doesn't mean those perceptions and reputation are valid. Just that they can be expected to still exist sometimes.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

True... but just because perceptions and reputation will sometimes lag behind reality doesn't mean those perceptions and reputation are valid. Just that they can be expected to still exist sometimes.

Indeed. I wanted to post something longer but anyone still here has read enough of me in this thread today.

 

[cslebn]

NHL offseason by the numbers: Which teams have improved the most (and least)?

In his latest column, Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic says his model has CBJ with the fifth-worst offseason in the league to this point, just ahead of the Islanders and Lightning and behind the Sharks and Leafs:



So there's at least one person out there saying the offseason has been a net negative for the Blue Jackets.

Dom’s models like Murray a lot and rate him a top 2

 

[domi28]

I'm sure that Leafs fans are so very comforted by how even though Kerry Fraiser ostensibly cheated them out of a Cup final trip in the early 90s, at least that means they can be argued to exceed the Columbus Blue Jackets in terms of how close they've been to winning a cup since the Original Six era.

Come the f*** on. This isn't even an attempt at an argument; it's hyperbolic bullshit masquerading as an attempt to rationalize "wahhhh I didn't get a SECOND shiny new toy this offseason".

My argument is simple but you chose not to respond to it and instead attacked Leafs fans. You're a moderator here, try to be an adult instead of throwing a hissy fit because other posters have different opinions.

How long does it take to build a contender? Jarmo has been here 7 years, that is more than enough time to build a contender in my opinion. When I look at the Blackhawks and Kings and more recently Tampa Bay I don't see teams that took 7 years to build. Has Jarmo done a good job here in Cbus? Yes, he has. Has Jarmo done a good enough job to build a contender? No, he has not.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

Being a bubble team is not a good thing because history has shown us that bubble teams don’t win championships. Will it happen at some point? Probably. But I’d rather be great and raise our chances of winning significantly instead of being a bubble team and hoping for a miracle. How many banners do you get to hang for beating the vaunted Tampa Bay lightning that one time? None.

This is the fan equivalent of culture change. Some have gone from expecting to lose to “winning would be nice, but I’m fine either way.” Winning should be the expectation

 

[Monk]

My argument is simple but you chose not to respond to it and instead attacked Leafs fans. You're a moderator here, try to be an adult instead of throwing a hissy fit because other posters have different opinions.

How long does it take to build a contender? Jarmo has been here 7 years, that is more than enough time to build a contender in my opinion. When I look at the Blackhawks and Kings and more recently Tampa Bay I don't see teams that took 7 years to build. Has Jarmo done a good job here in Cbus? Yes, he has. Has Jarmo done a good enough job to build a contender? No, he has not.

How the Tampa Bay Lightning built a perennial contender

I think this article is valuable context to how the most recent Cup-winning team was put together. It started 13 years ago with the drafting of Killorn and ended with some trades leading up to the playoffs. I think a cup-winning team is built brick by brick with a shitload of luck and can take a long, long time. Or if you happen to be particularly lucky, it can be fairly quick.

But it's worth noting that a good number of the impact players on the TBL were drafted 6-8+ years ago.

 

[stevo61]

Being a bubble team is not a good thing because history has shown us that bubble teams don’t win championships. Will it happen at some point? Probably. But I’d rather be great and raise our chances of winning significantly instead of being a bubble team and hoping for a miracle. How many banners do you get to hang for beating the vaunted Tampa Bay lightning that one time? None.

This is the fan equivalent of culture change. Some have gone from expecting to lose to “winning would be nice, but I’m fine either way.” Winning should be the expectation

What a load of garbage. Expecting to win vs winning would be nice means jack shit to the on ice product. Every other fan base besides each seasons winner can make the same comments and guess what, there will be a lot of disappointed fans. We all want to see the team win but demanding a winner means absolutely nothing.
Ive also always found it interesting how fans think they "deserve" to see a winner. Teams go through highs and lows, some higher than others and some lower but thats sports. Maybe each year a different team should get the Stanley Cup so we all get to have fun

 

[DarkandStormy]

Dom’s models like Murray a lot and rate him a top 2

Yeah, there are flaws in the model, but...it's a supposedly "unbiased" look at our offseason.

Anyway, we can't know if we got better until/if they play the games. And who knows, maybe the offseason - in terms of moves - isn't over yet.

 

[DarkandStormy]

How the Tampa Bay Lightning built a perennial contender

I think this article is valuable context to how the most recent Cup-winning team was put together. It started 13 years ago with the drafting of Killorn and ended with some trades leading up to the playoffs. I think a cup-winning team is built brick by brick with a shitload of luck and can take a long, long time. Or if you happen to be particularly lucky, it can be fairly quick.

But it's worth noting that a good number of the impact players on the TBL were drafted 6-8+ years ago.

We no longer have any first round picks on the team from before 2015. The remaining ones were let go, bought out, or traded over the last year. In fact, it looks like we're only getting Bjorkstrand and Merzlikins out of Jarmo's first two drafts here. I suppose Harrington via the Rychel trade.

 

[DarkandStormy]

How long does it take to build a contender? Jarmo has been here 7 years, that is more than enough time to build a contender in my opinion. When I look at the Blackhawks and Kings and more recently Tampa Bay I don't see teams that took 7 years to build. Has Jarmo done a good job here in Cbus? Yes, he has. Has Jarmo done a good enough job to build a contender? No, he has not.

It's really hard to break out from 11th-18th best team in the league to consistently in the top 10. It usually takes multiple generational talents (TB - Point, Kucherov, Hedman / Chicago - Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Hossa / Pittsburgh - Crosby, Malkin). Maybe you catch lightning (no pun intended) in a bottle - St. Louis with ROR and Binnington. Those instances are pretty rare.

I'm stuck on how this team gets into a perennial top 10 team. They're not projected to have multiple top 5 picks. I'm not sure they have generational type talents outside of the top pair. I also don't think the pipeline is all that good, either. So...what can they do? They acquired Panarin for two seasons and squeaked into the playoffs both years. I'm not sure there's a way out of this "bubble team" area where they probably just rack up a bunch of 1st round losses in the playoffs over and over.

 

[Byrral]

Indeed. I wanted to post something longer but anyone still here has read enough of me in this thread today.

In reading through the last few pages I actually appreciated your level headedness.

Around here the harder you bang on your computer or post rants of personal opinion as if it's gospel and not to be challenged or throwing around borderline insults.... is the way to make your opinion seem more relevant. It doesn't.


"To be yourself in a world that is constantly trying to make you something else is the greatest accomplishment."

-Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

[Monstershockey]

My argument is simple but you chose not to respond to it and instead attacked Leafs fans. You're a moderator here, try to be an adult instead of throwing a hissy fit because other posters have different opinions.

How long does it take to build a contender? Jarmo has been here 7 years, that is more than enough time to build a contender in my opinion. When I look at the Blackhawks and Kings and more recently Tampa Bay I don't see teams that took 7 years to build. Has Jarmo done a good job here in Cbus? Yes, he has. Has Jarmo done a good enough job to build a contender? No, he has not.

When the Kings won both their cups, they were 6th and 8th in points those years. Pretty much a bubble team. They finished 3rd in their division both times. Funny thing is, both times they were the lowest scoring playoff team (29th and 25th overall in regular season), and gave up the fewest goals one year, and second fewest the other. Kind of a defensive style like our team plays that people say can't work. Their playoff history was pretty bad until they got Gretzky, made a cup final, then was mediocre until they won their 2 cups with teams that couldn't score, but could play defense. Anytime you make the playoffs you are a contender. Monk nailed it with saying the luck that is involved. So many things have to go right to win a cup. Not just in the year you win it, but all the pieces you add and subtract over the years leading up to it.

 

[majormajor]

How can one objectively say that losing Anderson, Wennberg, Nutivaara, and Murray and gaining Domi, Koivu, Grigorenko and Pu makes this team better? There is no way to measure that.

Obviously "objectivity" isn't going to be involved in this discussion.

I'll ask you this though. What is more concerning to you?

A) - A 2C of Wennberg/Jenner

B) - A 3rd pair of Kukan-Peeke

For me it is clearly A, and Kukan-Peeke is completely unconcerning.

Being a bubble team is not a good thing because history has shown us that bubble teams don’t win championships. Will it happen at some point? Probably. But I’d rather be great and raise our chances of winning significantly instead of being a bubble team and hoping for a miracle. How many banners do you get to hang for beating the vaunted Tampa Bay lightning that one time? None.

This is the fan equivalent of culture change. Some have gone from expecting to lose to “winning would be nice, but I’m fine either way.” Winning should be the expectation

Just doing your part are you?

You'd rather the team was great? Interesting. Can't say I've ever felt that way.

You should really try booing the team more, I hear it helps them play better.


How is this culture change supposed to work? We all throw a stinking fit and then......

 

[NotWendell]

You should really try booing the team more, I hear it helps them play better.

And the power play wouldn't suck if you just told them to "SHOOT!" more.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

The fans don’t care. The media doesn’t care. Ownership doesn’t care. And therefore doesn’t spend to the cap.

we move on.

 

[CBJx614]

The fans don’t care. The media doesn’t care. Ownership doesn’t care. And therefore doesn’t spend to the cap.

we move on.

The fans only think about today, GMs have to think 5 years down the line. Spending to the cap today might mean we don't keep Jones and Z or possibly someone else in the future. It's not always black and white. With the uncertainty in the world right now how can anyone justify spending to the cap. At the end of the day this league is a business, every single GM in the league will tell you that. Without fans there is no revenue outside of tv contracts.

Even with a cup win I would imagine a team like Tampa potentially still lost more money than it generated during the playoffs.

 

[Dumais]

IMO, we didnt lose Anderson, Murray, Nuti or Wennberg. (and I believe all three will be very successful, sorry murr) they weren't being used here (no future for them, it would drag the team down) in comparison to their pay, they are better off with their new teams, mutually beneficial for everyone. What do you want a 4.6m (often injured) with a 2.4m partner...3rd pairing? We need to make room for younger players to get more time, cheaper/saves money ... not that I buy into this cap team Covid nonsense. Dubi/Foligno 12m come off next year, we have that this year....we can sign EVERYONE =) Even if we win the cup...plenty of cap space to sign 2c, 2d and 2g lol

And I have a funny feeling if Habs called ANY of us offering Domi straight up for Anderson (which likely happened) ... none of us would've had the balls to say nah, unless you include a 3rd. And just adding Domi will be greater than all of those players combined, because he will have a big impact on PLD (not just motivation) but because he wont be the sole target of other teams defenses/players/strategy. A coach like ours would shutdown PLD's line and beat us ...now...one of our 2 centers should have a good game, every game. And we might see more sustained pressure in the offensive zones during line changes and PP. But anyways, point is; these types of problem; dont sound like a bubble team to me. This is a big step up from what I seen as a jackets fan. The team is young, redundancy (injuries) in place and the team makes sense. Everyone has a role and they fit it. Not hoping for a "rebound year or health year" for anyone...

But whatever. be miserable if ya want. not me =)

 

[EspenK]

To me a bubble team is one where if they make the playoffs you're not surprised; same as if they miss. Jackets fit that description perfectly imo.

 

[Moch Daear]

My argument is simple but you chose not to respond to it and instead attacked Leafs fans. You're a moderator here, try to be an adult instead of throwing a hissy fit because other posters have different opinions.

How long does it take to build a contender? Jarmo has been here 7 years, that is more than enough time to build a contender in my opinion. When I look at the Blackhawks and Kings and more recently Tampa Bay I don't see teams that took 7 years to build. Has Jarmo done a good job here in Cbus? Yes, he has. Has Jarmo done a good enough job to build a contender? No, he has not.

Blackhawks - committed to a tank, landed generational players, in a city players enjoy living in
Kings - brought in high quality free agents that complemented the already existing team
Lightning - committed to a tank, landed generational players, in a city players enjoy living in

Jarmo needs to be better but to compare the CBJ to LAK is asinine. You can't compare them to CHI or TBL - they opted to tank and hit generational quality players with their picks. A better comparison would probably be St Louis. Similar size, similar area, similar lack of interests in the city at large for a lot of players. And it took them how long to get there?

 

[Monk]

To me a bubble team is one where if they make the playoffs you're not surprised; same as if they miss. Jackets fit that description perfectly imo.

How dare you

 

[db2011]

the fact is the team has one playoff series win and one play-in series win to show for its existence.

...and those were in consecutive years, and they were the last two years. That counts for something regarding how Jarmo's been doing, what he's been getting this team to do lately. We hear the Jackets being discussed as players in many of the FA negotiations this offseason, from Hall to Hoffman and Pietrangolo. They didn't come here, and Panarin left, but it's not like Jarmo was on the sidelines- and I still can't discern whether posters here really even wanted those players to begin with (Hoffman still available I know).

I'm only quoting you DSL because the words quoted are often used pejoratively about the Jackets. That would be compelling if those "accomplishments" were a few years ago and a few years apart; but they are the most recent indications of what Jarmo has done with the team.