Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
I'll say on Trouba that he's very likeable, he was absolutely the right choice to be captain, and it's ok to root for him.
Game Analysis: The Great New Year's Analytics Card Dump
- Thread starter Machinehead
- Start date
I think Schneider’s improvements have been via a coaching staff that doesn’t preach against what he’s good at.
He’s encouraged to carry the puck out by this group. Gallants people thought that carrying the puck out past your blue line would re create the plague.
Having a good partner has helped a ton but he’s looked better because he can use his strengths.
He’s encouraged to carry the puck out by this group. Gallants people thought that carrying the puck out past your blue line would re create the plague.
Having a good partner has helped a ton but he’s looked better because he can use his strengths.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Remember how Benoit Pouliot was a low-key glue guy and our forecheck was never the same after we lost him?
DanielBrassard
It's all so tiresome
thats a hell of a throwback but yes it is very reminiscent. I think Pouliot had more skill but he was so underrated and it sucked that we couldn’t keep him.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Losing Hagelin and Pouliot because $4m is a lot of money in hockey is when I started hating the salary cap. Proven depth players that fit our system but you're only allowed to keep like 5 players at a time in this f***ing league. Ditto Boyle and Stralman.
KirkAlbuquerque
#WeNeverGetAGoodCoach
Now I may not be a fancy big city lawyer, but Fox’s chart reads to me that he’s still elite at driving offense, but he’s just getting no finishing luck on the ice?
I’d be ok with miller fox Gus Schneider as the top 4 and cross our fingers for the bottom pair
But it’ll never happen
To be honest Trouba should probably be encouraged to skate it out more rather than pass it out
But it’ll never happen
To be honest Trouba should probably be encouraged to skate it out more rather than pass it out
Blue Blooded
Most people rejected his message
Strålman wasn't even a depth player, he was neck and neck with McDonagh as our best defenceman.
This is where I’m at. First, I’ll admit I was ready to write Panarin off as a perimeter player who no longer had that extra gear that made him special. Whatever he did this offseason, he deserves major credit for recognizing and correcting aspects of his play that made him less impactful - always productive, but this Panarin is SO much more valuable and impactful. Second, I appreciate the progress from Laf majorly and I’m glad he’s been put in, and left in, a position to succeed, gain confidence and find his game. However, he’s the least productive of the three on arguably the best line in hockey and definitely not capable of creating much on his own, let alone driving a line, which is still disappointing relative to his draft position. However, we can all hope that this season’s success and opportunity leads to more confidence, maybe more commitment to getting even better in the offseason and an eventual ability to be a difference maker on his own. Even if that means just by taking his feistiness, driving the net more and learning to finish at a higher rate in tight, like a smaller Kreider. That would be fine. I’m encouraged by the progress, but I also acknowledge he’s benefitting from the Bread. On his own, he still has work to do but he’s definitely started to change the narrative this year.
Bacon Artemi Bravo
Registered User
- Sep 20, 2007
- 7,090
- 9,781
If the oilers give Himmie $5M+(which i guess is the $4m pouliot got normalized for todays dollars), I'd also say seeee ya later pal
mas0764
Registered User
- Jul 16, 2005
- 13,832
- 11,203
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Well nowadays we can barely afford anything over league minimum.
mas0764
Registered User
- Jul 16, 2005
- 13,832
- 11,203
Needs to be moved bad. Someone can be tricked based on his name/rep.
mandiblesofdoom
Registered User
- May 24, 2012
- 2,320
- 1,315
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Others have touched on it. He was always bad at offense but now he's the plague at offense.
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Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Somebody mentioned that Fox might just be having bad on-ice luck. I think there's a lot to support that.
I like that EH uses both GAR and xGAR and uses the actual GAR as part of their rating. Some guys (and some teams), for a variety of reasons, consistently beat their analytics.
A certain Finn is a perfect example. The underlying numbers say he should be scoring, but this is year 5, and his team always tanks in goal-scoring when he's on the ice somehow.
From there, you have to look at the sample and determine who usually scores and who usually doesn't. Fox has proven he can drive actual goals at an elite level.
I like that EH uses both GAR and xGAR and uses the actual GAR as part of their rating. Some guys (and some teams), for a variety of reasons, consistently beat their analytics.
A certain Finn is a perfect example. The underlying numbers say he should be scoring, but this is year 5, and his team always tanks in goal-scoring when he's on the ice somehow.
From there, you have to look at the sample and determine who usually scores and who usually doesn't. Fox has proven he can drive actual goals at an elite level.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Why Kakko's offensive GAR never, ever, ever hits its xGAR is an interesting discussion.
- Jan 18, 2012
- 33,865
- 50,912
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Just holding the puck on the perimeter doesn't produce good analytics. It produces good "against" numbers because if you're doing that, the other team is doing nothing, but Kakko also has good "for" numbers.
- Jan 18, 2012
- 33,865
- 50,912
its obviously more than looping the puck around the boards and holding onto it. They get chances. He's ass on the rush. He's ass at finishing. Not the best of combos.
Someone needs to get to the slot. We know he's not doing it consistently
NYR Viper
Registered User
@Machinehead
Are there any other players, like Vesey, that you can point to who the Rangers could target with good underlying 5v5 numbers?
Are there any other players, like Vesey, that you can point to who the Rangers could target with good underlying 5v5 numbers?
I think you might have meant to send the 23/24 card in there but instead sent 22/23 twice
romba
Registered User
He ALWAYS goes for the seam pass if it's just a stick or two in the lane. If there's an actual body in the way he'll make the safe play, otherwise it's fling it hard/sauce it and hope. When it works, it looks sick and he gets all the praise, when it fails it's just another turnover oh well, just try again next touch.
I think he's hesitant due to his injury history. And it's worked for him as he's stayed healthy the past few years. I'm ok with him being less engaging along the boards and behind the net, trying to finesse the puck free instead of get inside positioning and taking a shove to the boards, if it keeps him healthy. Chytil will likely need to learn to adjust as well and it will definitely hurt his game too.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
One of the flaws of xG is that they boil everything down to single shot attempt.
Funny thing about xG is that they work the same way in soccer. Which is, you have a shot attempt, and that shot attempt is assigned a percentage likelihood of entering the net. A shot estimated to go in 25% of the time is 0.25 xG. 0.25 is a great chance BTW. The whole "no chance" thing is kind of overblown, especially with hockey goalies and their big pads and smaller nets.
I love using soccer to analyze xG because it's slower and the net is so much bigger. You really get to dig deep on analyzing a chance and the xG assigned to it.
Yesterday, Liverpool set a new Premier League record with 7.53 xG in a single game (not a typo). Were Liverpool phenomenal in that game? Yes. Is that number still likely skewed? Perhaps, and let me show you my evidence.
This is their second goal. 17 has the ball and the goalie dove out of position trying to stop the pass. Every defender is behind him. When this singular shot attempt leaves his foot, it's worth 0.999 xG. That makes sense. If you simulated this single shot attempt 1000 times, he scores 999 times.
Here's the thing, though: this is a particular set of circumstances that led to this one shot that literally any of us could have scored. Does it make the several passes and all the build-up to this moment more effective than Liverpool usually are on the break, or versus when they get, say, a 0.63 xG shot? Probably not.
What if the goalkeeper got a piece of the pass? Now there's no shot attempt and it's worth 0.0 xG. But it's the same rush and the same passes that led to the rush.
I think this may be a thing with Kakko. He gets chances in the slot and so do his teammates. For a single shot attempt in a single location, it rates well. However, Kakko isn't great at shooting. I think even more than that, Kakko isn't good at build-up. @duhmetreE says he's ass on the rush and he's touching on it. When Kakko gets that look in the slot, the defenders and goalies are in different positions than when Zibanejad gets the same look, in terms of distance, royal road, and all the other factors. Zibanejad is a guy who consistently outscores his expected.
Long story short, xG accounts for the likelihood of a single shot attempt going in but it doesn't account for the events that led to a shot attempt. Kakko forcing his way to the slot across the royal road with half-control is not the same as Zibanejad getting to the same spot clean as a whistle with an option to shoot or pass.
Funny thing about xG is that they work the same way in soccer. Which is, you have a shot attempt, and that shot attempt is assigned a percentage likelihood of entering the net. A shot estimated to go in 25% of the time is 0.25 xG. 0.25 is a great chance BTW. The whole "no chance" thing is kind of overblown, especially with hockey goalies and their big pads and smaller nets.
I love using soccer to analyze xG because it's slower and the net is so much bigger. You really get to dig deep on analyzing a chance and the xG assigned to it.
Yesterday, Liverpool set a new Premier League record with 7.53 xG in a single game (not a typo). Were Liverpool phenomenal in that game? Yes. Is that number still likely skewed? Perhaps, and let me show you my evidence.
This is their second goal. 17 has the ball and the goalie dove out of position trying to stop the pass. Every defender is behind him. When this singular shot attempt leaves his foot, it's worth 0.999 xG. That makes sense. If you simulated this single shot attempt 1000 times, he scores 999 times.
Here's the thing, though: this is a particular set of circumstances that led to this one shot that literally any of us could have scored. Does it make the several passes and all the build-up to this moment more effective than Liverpool usually are on the break, or versus when they get, say, a 0.63 xG shot? Probably not.
What if the goalkeeper got a piece of the pass? Now there's no shot attempt and it's worth 0.0 xG. But it's the same rush and the same passes that led to the rush.
I think this may be a thing with Kakko. He gets chances in the slot and so do his teammates. For a single shot attempt in a single location, it rates well. However, Kakko isn't great at shooting. I think even more than that, Kakko isn't good at build-up. @duhmetreE says he's ass on the rush and he's touching on it. When Kakko gets that look in the slot, the defenders and goalies are in different positions than when Zibanejad gets the same look, in terms of distance, royal road, and all the other factors. Zibanejad is a guy who consistently outscores his expected.
Long story short, xG accounts for the likelihood of a single shot attempt going in but it doesn't account for the events that led to a shot attempt. Kakko forcing his way to the slot across the royal road with half-control is not the same as Zibanejad getting to the same spot clean as a whistle with an option to shoot or pass.
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