Game Analysis: The Great New Year's Analytics Card Dump

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
142,909
113,962
NYC
Evolving Hockey has released their GAR/WAR based player cards for the first "half" (sort of? almost half?) of 2023-24 and I've done the good deed of compiling them for all of you.

By no means is this the be-all-end-all but I think it's interesting to look at. I'm going to post each one, and my thoughts, basically in lineup order:


CK20.png


Yep, that's Chris Kreider. Moving on.

MZ93.png


Not surprised he's kind of mid because he started out horrible, but he's been heating up.

BW17.png


Yeah, that sucks. Lower than I expected although some people won't be surprised.

AP10.png


Yeah, that tracks. Next.

VT16.png


Yep. About right.

AL13.png


NOW HOLD ON! Before you yell, I think Lafreniere has been good this year. I've ranted and raved about how I hate the line he's on. I hate the line because the line SUCKS defensively. That tracks. EH blames Lafreniere on the line sucking defensively. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it matches my apprehension about the line. Please put him on a different one.

WC50.png


I mean, yeah. If this seems low, it's not. Cuylle is better than about 35-40% of the league. I don't think that's a hot take. He's a third liner. He's a solid third liner with potential to be more.

NB12.png


This is probably the least surprising card on the roster. Bonino is legit elite at penalty killing and black death at everything else. Yeah. Nobody's surprised.

KK24.png


Kakko having a normal one. Solid at everything except for the small detail that his team would rather do anything besides score when he's on the ice. Turning into a really weird player. Another accurate card.

(Brodzinski doesn't have enough minutes to make a card yet).

TP71.png


Here's Tyler Pitlick. He exists.

BG21.png


Another elite penalty killer that should play 2 seconds a game at even strength. @McRanger92 was right that these guys are legitimately great at it tho.

JV26.png


This is why I wanna move him up. Without exaggeration one of the best even strength players in the league.

AF23.png


Even in a down year, Fox is well into a Norris-range percentile. Just a comically good hockey player. He is having a down year offensively. That might be because.......

RL55.png


Yeah, that's why. Lindgren might literally be the worst offensive player in the National Hockey League through 30-whatever games. Fun.

KM79.png


79 is an elite offensive defenseman now. His defense rating sucks. Do you wanna know why? I know why. I've seen them all already. This is why:

JT8.png


*Curb Your Enthusiasm theme*

EG56.png


Fun fact: Erik Gustafsson is listed as "Erik Gustafsson (D)" on EH because another Erik Gustafsson, who I didn't know existed, apparently plays forward. Another fun fact: he's f***ing excellent.

BS4.png


I'm actually really excited about this. His defense could still use some work but him looking like he's good at offense now is not a mirage. 65th percentile is better than almost every #6 defenseman. Schneider is one of the best players in the NHL playing his current roe. Isn't that wild? Good for him.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
142,909
113,962
NYC
How is it possible for Miller and Trouba's numbers to be so off?
They have built-in regulations that attempt to isolate individual performance which is never going to be perfect, and as I alluded to in a few of these cases, teammate impact is still going to be a thing.

Like, I'm blaming Fox being an 83 on Lindgren, despite the fact that the metrics put them 82% apart. It should be more.
 
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Ail

Based and Rangerspilled.
Nov 13, 2009
29,176
5,288
Boomerville
A few surprises, but otherwise matches most of what plays out on the ice per player. Vesey lmao
 

Raspewtin

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
May 30, 2013
42,963
18,382
lindgren being literally one of the worst offensive players in the league honestly might be underselling it. he’s been that bad.
 
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Blue Blooded

Most people rejected his message
Oct 25, 2010
4,524
2,435
Stockholm
lindgren being literally one of the worst offensive players in the league honestly might be underselling it. he’s been that bad.
Bonino gives him a run for his money. At this point unless they have nobody around them AND there is a clear easy pass to an open teammate, the possession ends with them every single time in the offensive zone. Even Goodrow looks like Panarin in comparison.

Also, Vesey moving up to a proper line should count as a player acquisition. Using him to prop up Goodrow and Pitlick gave som decent results for a while, but is a massive waste. Remember when we moved Hagelin from the Mitchell line to the Richards-Gaborik line? Turns out propping up Johnny Malkin wasn't nearly as valuable as helping your talented forwards getting more opportunities to score.
 

SnowblindNYR

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Nov 16, 2011
52,103
30,688
Brooklyn, NY
They have built-in regulations that attempt to isolate individual performance which is never going to be perfect, and as I alluded to in a few of these cases, teammate impact is still going to be a thing.

Like, I'm blaming Fox being an 83 on Lindgren, despite the fact that the metrics put them 82% apart. It should be more.

Is it done in a systematic way?
 

GoAwayPanarin

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
May 27, 2008
41,890
52,258
In High Altitoad
Evolving Hockey has released their GAR/WAR based player cards for the first "half" (sort of? almost half?) of 2023-24 and I've done the good deed of compiling them for all of you.

By no means is this the be-all-end-all but I think it's interesting to look at. I'm going to post each one, and my thoughts, basically in lineup order:


View attachment 792434

Yep, that's Chris Kreider. Moving on.

View attachment 792437

Not surprised he's kind of mid because he started out horrible, but he's been heating up.

View attachment 792439

Yeah, that sucks. Lower than I expected although some people won't be surprised.

View attachment 792441

Yeah, that tracks. Next.

View attachment 792442

Yep. About right.

View attachment 792443

NOW HOLD ON! Before you yell, I think Lafreniere has been good this year. I've ranted and raved about how I hate the line he's on. I hate the line because the line SUCKS defensively. That tracks. EH blames Lafreniere on the line sucking defensively. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it matches my apprehension about the line. Please put him on a different one.

View attachment 792444

I mean, yeah. If this seems low, it's not. Cuylle is better than about 35-40% of the league. I don't think that's a hot take. He's a third liner. He's a solid third liner with potential to be more.

View attachment 792445

This is probably the least surprising card on the roster. Bonino is legit elite at penalty killing and black death at everything else. Yeah. Nobody's surprised.

View attachment 792447

Kakko having a normal one. Solid at everything except for the small detail that his team would rather do anything besides score when he's on the ice. Turning into a really weird player. Another accurate card.

(Brodzinski doesn't have enough minutes to make a card yet).

View attachment 792450

Here's Tyler Pitlick. He exists.

View attachment 792451

Another elite penalty killer that should play 2 seconds a game at even strength. @McRanger92 was right that these guys are legitimately great at it tho.

View attachment 792453

This is why I wanna move him up. Without exaggeration one of the best even strength players in the league.

View attachment 792454

Even in a down year, Fox is well into a Norris-range percentile. Just a comically good hockey player. He is having a down year offensively. That might be because.......

View attachment 792455

Yeah, that's why. Lindgren might literally be the worst offensive player in the National Hockey League through 30-whatever games. Fun.

View attachment 792456

79 is an elite offensive defenseman now. His defense rating sucks. Do you wanna know why? I know why. I've seen them all already. This is why:

View attachment 792458

*Curb Your Enthusiasm theme*

View attachment 792460

Fun fact: Erik Gustafsson is listed as "Erik Gustafsson (D)" on EH because another Erik Gustafsson, who I didn't know existed, apparently plays forward. Another fun fact: he's f***ing excellent.

View attachment 792462

I'm actually really excited about this. His defense could still use some work but him looking like he's good at offense now is not a mirage. 65th percentile is better than almost every #6 defenseman. Schneider is one of the best players in the NHL playing his current roe. Isn't that wild? Good for him.

It may be time to try Miller-Schneider Gus-Trouba.

Not Lindgren-Fox may have to wait but the others can happen now.
 
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SML2

Registered User
Jan 1, 2018
4,867
7,082
How is it possible for Miller and Trouba's numbers to be so off?
Do they have a stat that shows how frequently Miller hot potatoes a pass or reverses to Trouba when he has no play either to avoid getting hit?
 

Fitzy

Very Stable Genius
Jan 29, 2009
35,083
21,823
A lot of this seems in keeping with most of our qualitative evaluations.

A little surprised at Schneider's offense/defense but beyond that I don't have much beef with it.

People need to come to terms with the fact that Kakko is an ample 3rd liner, and perhaps never will be much more than that.
 
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hardnosed

Registered User
Feb 27, 2017
1,031
1,010
As bad as Lindgren looks on offense, these numbers suggest he's better than Trouba. At least Lindgren excels in one area. How did Trouba get so bad? And if he's this bad, why is he playing 25 minutes a night? Sort of makes sense that when he went out, our defensemen looked great.
 

80shockeywasbuns

Registered User
Feb 12, 2022
1,268
2,211
They have built-in regulations that attempt to isolate individual performance which is never going to be perfect, and as I alluded to in a few of these cases, teammate impact is still going to be a thing.

Like, I'm blaming Fox being an 83 on Lindgren, despite the fact that the metrics put them 82% apart. It should be more.
“Lindgren allows Fox to play his game”
31EC0410-60FE-4904-9513-2373F0E3D9F9.jpeg
 

Blue Blooded

Most people rejected his message
Oct 25, 2010
4,524
2,435
Stockholm
It's hard to nail down exactly why Zibanejad's defensive impacts are and have been poor for years since he's very good at the noticeable DEFENSE things. My feeling it is the combination that he's rush oriented and that he probably does more high-risk plays than Panarin even. Generalized; Panarin makes sure he's done everything to maximize the conditions before he sends the seam pass while Zibanejad seems to just instantly throw it across and hope it works out.
 

zlev

Registered User
Dec 21, 2015
1,636
2,970
the most surprising one to me is Lafreniere. to me he looks like our most dangerous forward at 5-on-5 on a consistent basis. it feels like he is constantly driving scoring chances, even moreso than Panarin (at 5v5). i was expecting Laf's xGAR to be way higher than his actual GAR but it's pretty close. the rest of them check out, maybe Miller's offense is a bit higher than I would've thought but he does have 7 goals in 33 games.
 
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DanielBrassard

It's all so tiresome
May 6, 2014
22,825
20,693
PA from SI
It's hard to nail down exactly why Zibanejad's defensive impacts are and have been poor for years since he's very good at the noticeable DEFENSE things. My feeling it is the combination that he's rush oriented and that he probably does more high-risk plays than Panarin even. Generalized; Panarin makes sure he's done everything to maximize the conditions before he sends the seam pass while Zibanejad seems to just instantly throw it across and hope it works out.
It’s because he’s terrible at retrieving pucks/winning puck battles. He refuses to engage or get inside positioning on players and will cede possession while attempting to poke them or is just happy to try to contain them on the outside. Only so effective until there’s a break down and the other team is generating. That’s what I see from him.
 

Kupo

MAFIA, MOUNT UP!
Sponsor
Oct 31, 2017
11,403
24,069
Stamford CT
Problem is it’s too small of a sample to make much of a determination. But either way I would like to see Fox with a better partner.
Not sure if it’s that small a sample size with all the games Lindgren has missed during his career. I’m in agreement about seeing him with a different partner though. I think KAM would look terrific next to him, imo.

I was just curious if the eye test matches the analytics when Fox isn’t playing with Ryan.
 

huerter

Registered User
Aug 16, 2020
4,199
2,166
lindgren being literally one of the worst offensive players in the league honestly might be underselling it. he’s been that bad.
He has schmoints in 4 of his last 5 games. He's too good of a player to not turn things around. People are so quick to be done with guys it's frightening.
 
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