Speculation: The Goalie Speculation Thread - Why Do Skaters Get All The Love?

[Snippit]

32OA will get traded for Grubaeur. Book it.

Click to read more...

 

[Sabre the Win]

32OA will get traded for Grubaeur. Book it.

He's a significant upgrade over Lehner and probably the cheapest option. I am sure we could give prospect + a 3rd rounder for him and keep our early 2nd.

 

[Jim Bob]

He's a significant upgrade over Lehner and probably the cheapest option. I am sure we could give prospect + a 3rd rounder for him and keep our early 2nd.

It is far from a given that Grubauer will be an upgrade over Lehner.

They are the same age and Grubauer has less than half of the number of NHL games played as Lehner. And before the NHL, Lehner's best AHL season was better than Grubauer's best AHL season.

Grubauer could be an upgrade. Or, he could be a replacement or a step down.

Pretty much any goalie that they are likely to acquire will be a lottery ticket.

Just look at the numbers that Raanta and Talbot put up as Lundy's backup and then when they moved on to their next teams.

Any time you move on to a new goalie, it has a lot of risk/variability involved.

 

[debaser66]

It is far from a given that Grubauer will be an upgrade over Lehner.

They are the same age and Grubauer has less than half of the number of NHL games played as Lehner. And before the NHL, Lehner's best AHL season was better than Grubauer's best AHL season.

Grubauer could be an upgrade. Or, he could be a replacement or a step down.

Pretty much any goalie that they are likely to acquire will be a lottery ticket.

Just look at the numbers that Raanta and Talbot put up as Lundy's backup and then when they moved on to their next teams.

Any time you move on to a new goalie, it has a lot of risk/variability involved.

Not to mention that the Caps have a better defense.
I have a hard time giving up assets for goalies.
I ardently hope we draft one or sign a undrafted miracle from Europe the next few seasons.
Until then I would stick to UFA.

 

[Sabre the Win]

It is far from a given that Grubauer will be an upgrade over Lehner.

They are the same age and Grubauer has less than half of the number of NHL games played as Lehner. And before the NHL, Lehner's best AHL season was better than Grubauer's best AHL season.

Grubauer could be an upgrade. Or, he could be a replacement or a step down.

Pretty much any goalie that they are likely to acquire will be a lottery ticket.

Just look at the numbers that Raanta and Talbot put up as Lundy's backup and then when they moved on to their next teams.

Any time you move on to a new goalie, it has a lot of risk/variability involved.

I am not sure you watch a goalie playing style. I was a huge advocate for Talbot over Lehner, I went to bat for Raanta and I have piled on Lehner since he was traded for and it turns out I was in the right for piling on Lehner because hes trash and always has been and you all got to see first it hand. One of these goalies is not like the other, Grubauer already plays with better positioning, more flexibility and can square his pad up against the post. I did a quick comparison of all season prior to last years since this site has tracked them.

 

[Jim Bob]

Not to mention that the Caps have a better defense.
I have a hard time giving up assets for goalies.
I ardently hope we draft one or sign a undrafted miracle from Europe the next few seasons.
Until then I would stick to UFA.

A kid they take in the draft is unlikely to make an impact at the NHL level for 5 years or more.

Ullmark was drafted six years ago and he has yet to be an NHL regular yet.

 

[Reddawg]

A kid they take in the draft is unlikely to make an impact at the NHL level for 5 years or more.

Ullmark was drafted six years ago and he has yet to be an NHL regular yet.

Yup. Ryan Miller didn't become an NHL regular until his 7th year after being drafted.

 

[Jim Bob]

I am not sure you watch a goalie playing style. I was a huge advocate for Talbot over Lehner, I went to bat for Raanta and I have piled on Lehner since he was traded for and it turns out I was in the right for piling on Lehner because hes trash and always has been and you all got to see first it hand. One of these goalies is not like the other, Grubauer already plays with better positioning, more flexibility and can square his pad up against the post. I did a quick comparison of all season prior to last years since this site has tracked them.

View attachment 119863

I have played goal and coached goalies.

I get why people want to move on from Lehner.

I also know that looking at a goalie that has never had to be a #1 is a huge projection.

Along with goalie production not being that consistent year to year.

And comparing Grubauer's stats behind the Caps and Lehner's stats behind the Sabres is just comparing apples to oranges. Especially with how things changed for the Sabres' goalies this season.

It wasn't just Lehner, look at CJ in 15/16 vs CJ in 17/18. His Save% dropped from .920 to .891.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I have played goal and coached goalies.

I get why people want to move on from Lehner.

I also know that looking at a goalie that has never had to be a #1 is a huge projection.

Along with goalie production not being that consistent year to year.

And comparing Grubauer's stats behind the Caps and Lehner's stats behind the Sabres is just comparing apples to oranges. Especially with how things changed for the Sabres' goalies this season.

It wasn't just Lehner, look at CJ in 15/16 vs CJ in 17/18. His Save% dropped from .920 to .891.

The only time Lehner benefited from a good season was in Bylsma's system. Less high danger saves to be made, most shots came from low scoring areas to the outside and he faced a lot and a lot of low danger shots but it showed in the shootouts his glaring weakness with positioning to tracking the puck in medium to high danger scoring areas. Granted this year defense was non existent because Housley wanted the defense to rush up allowing for more shots to be taken in those areas of weakness for Lehner and that went really against Lehner. However even if I judge him solely in Bylsma's system when he posted that .918 or was it .920? save pct season, Holtby or Grubauer would have looked even better in that system because they are just better goalies overall.

 

[Chainshot]

Breaking this out of the Draft Thread. We may as well start pseudo GCT 2018 now.

 

[TehDoak]

Given the comments at the end of the season from Botterill, I expect Lehner to either be traded or not qualified. Ullmark is penciled in at the backup spot for sure.

I'm not really impressed by much on the market right now though. I also see 3 teams that need a starter (Carolina, Buffalo, NYI) and zero starters available. Grubaeur looks like best available. Maybe we get him since we aren't in Washington's division?

 

[Zip15]

I am not sure you watch a goalie playing style. I was a huge advocate for Talbot over Lehner, I went to bat for Raanta and I have piled on Lehner since he was traded for and it turns out I was in the right for piling on Lehner because hes trash and always has been and you all got to see first it hand. One of these goalies is not like the other, Grubauer already plays with better positioning, more flexibility and can square his pad up against the post. I did a quick comparison of all season prior to last years since this site has tracked them.

Cost notwithstanding, Lehner has been the better netminder since those trades. Not Lehner's fault that Murray made Chiarelli, of all GM's, look like a shrewd negotiator.

View attachment 119863

Do you have Darling's before and after his trade from Chicago? Because most people thought he was a lock to be a good starting goaltender once he was given the crease in Carolina. Not only was he terrible, he was right there with Johnson in the conversation for "worst regular goaltender in the NHL" during the 2017-18 season.

That's the point. You can't simply assume that Grubauer will be a .920+ guy when he enters this tire fire. If Buffalo wants to put a future 2nd on the table (preferably, SJ's when/if Kane doesn't re-sign there), I wouldn't care too much. I do not want them trading 32 for Grubauer.

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

To answer the original question......... it's the toughest position to play out of any of them. Physically, mentally, emotionally.

I'll never understand why my son became a goaltender. Except that he loves the pressure and the challenge.

 

[Jim Bob]

Given the comments at the end of the season from Botterill, I expect Lehner to either be traded or not qualified. Ullmark is penciled in at the backup spot for sure.

I'm not really impressed by much on the market right now though. I also see 3 teams that need a starter (Carolina, Buffalo, NYI) and zero starters available. Grubaeur looks like best available. Maybe we get him since we aren't in Washington's division?

I think St Louis is another interesting situation to watch.

Hutton outplayed Allen this season. But, Allen is signed long term and Hutton is set to be a UFA.

Personally, I'd rather go the UFA route with a guy like Lehtonen or Bernier than giving up assets for a guy like Grubauer who has never been a #1.

 

[Jim Bob]

To answer the original question......... it's the toughest position to play out of any of them. Physically, mentally, emotionally.

I'll never understand why my son became a goaltender. Except that he loves the pressure and the challenge.

It's probably because goalies get the cool gear and don't have to skate as much.

 

[Snippit]

Damn didn’t expect my big claim to be made OP

 

[Zip15]

Given the comments at the end of the season from Botterill, I expect Lehner to either be traded or not qualified. Ullmark is penciled in at the backup spot for sure.

I'm not really impressed by much on the market right now though. I also see 3 teams that need a starter (Carolina, Buffalo, NYI) and zero starters available. Grubaeur looks like best available. Maybe we get him since we aren't in Washington's division?

I would add teams with soon-to-be UFA goaltenders who are just "meh":

Detroit (Howard a UFA after next season)
Colorado (Varly a UFA after next season)
Calgary (Smith a UFA after next season)

 

[Jim Bob]

Another interesting potential target would be Keith Kinkaid.

He kept the Devils afloat when Schneider struggled this season.

But, Schneider has a long term, big money deal that includes a NTC and Kinkaid has one more year prior to becoming a UFA.

He would be another guy in that "lottery ticket" bucket and trading him would kind of be like when the Rangers traded Talbot.

But, I doubt that happens if the Devils are worried about Schneider.

 

[Zip15]

Another interesting potential target would be Keith Kinkaid.

He kept the Devils afloat when Schneider struggled this season.

But, Schneider has a long term, big money deal that includes a NTC and Kinkaid has one more year prior to becoming a UFA.

He would be another guy in that "lottery ticket" bucket and trading him would kind of be like when the Rangers traded Talbot.

But, I doubt that happens if the Devils are worried about Schneider.

For the reasons you mentioned, I don't see them trading Kinkaid. He's proven to be a nice insurance policy if or when Schneider falters.

Kinkaid was my preferred backup last offseason, but the Devils re-signed him just before UFA.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Cost notwithstanding, Lehner has been the better netminder since those trades. Not Lehner's fault that Murray made Chiarelli, of all GM's, look like a shrewd negotiator.

Do you have Darling's before and after his trade from Chicago? Because most people thought he was a lock to be a good starting goaltender once he was given the crease in Carolina. Not only was he terrible, he was right there with Johnson in the conversation for "worst regular goaltender in the NHL" during the 2017-18 season.

That's the point. You can't simply assume that Grubauer will be a .920+ guy when he enters this tire fire. If Buffalo wants to put a future 2nd on the table (preferably, SJ's when/if Kane doesn't re-sign there), I wouldn't care too much. I do not want them trading 32 for Grubauer.

The site hasn't added this past season and I am not sure if they will, however I can post comparables to both Raanta and Talbot in Lehners .920 season with Bylsma.

 

[Jim Bob]

The only time Lehner benefited from a good season was in Bylsma's system. Less high danger saves to be made, most shots came from low scoring areas to the outside and he faced a lot and a lot of low danger shots but it showed in the shootouts his glaring weakness with positioning to tracking the puck in medium to high danger scoring areas. Granted this year defense was non existent because Housley wanted the defense to rush up allowing for more shots to be taken in those areas of weakness for Lehner and that went really against Lehner. However even if I judge him solely in Bylsma's system when he posted that .918 or was it .920? save pct season, Holtby or Grubauer would have looked even better in that system because they are just better goalies overall.

Lehner had a .924 Save% in 21 GP in 15/16 and a .920 Save% in 59 GP in 16/17 under Bylsma.

In 15/16, CJ had a .920 Save% in 45 GP and Ullmark had a .913 Save% in 20 GP.

In 16/17, Nilsson had a .923 Save% in 26 GP. In Vancouver this season, Nilsson had a .901 Save% in 27 GP.

I will be pleasantly surprised if GMJB goes with the likely goalie tandem next season and there is marked improvement in the team's goalie metrics.

 

[Icicle]

I'd really just like to see a goalie who has the attributes of: good positioning and skill. Not more retreads of the fat guy who covers the whole crease, but can't even hug a post properly.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Lehner had a .924 Save% in 21 GP in 15/16 and a .920 Save% in 59 GP in 16/17 under Bylsma.

In 15/16, CJ had a .920 Save% in 45 GP and Ullmark had a .913 Save% in 20 GP.

In 16/17, Nilsson had a .923 Save% in 26 GP. In Vancouver this season, Nilsson had a .901 Save% in 27 GP.

I will be pleasantly surprised if GMJB goes with the likely goalie tandem next season and there is marked improvement in the team's goalie metrics.

Not with Lehner and without Bylsma's system unless we get all new goalies which means Lehner out, 1A in and Ullmark 1B and our defense actually plays defense unless Housley goes full Bylsma and keeps it a grindy game keeping shots to the outside.

For all the warts and shit Bylsma faced here, he at least played to this teams strengths at the time rather than Housley trying to install a system that doesn't have the players to support it. The goalies I am sure were appreciative of it, I can understand why the players hated it.

 

[Zip15]

The site hasn't added this past season and I am not sure if they will, however I can post comparables to both Raanta and Talbot in Lehners .920 season with Bylsma.

View attachment 119875 View attachment 119877

I should be more clear, as I certainly like Raanta better than Lehner: I think Lehner has been better than Talbot since the trades - which is why I noted acquisition cost.

In any event, I don't expect Lehner back next year. I simply hope that we do not trade 32 for Grubauer.

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

It's probably because goalies get the cool gear and don't have to skate as much.

Hey, I've watched the skating drills you drill sergeants have put their goalies through..... No way was I ever going to do that loaded down with all that equipment!

You guys can be sadists!