Post-Game Talk: The Gimmick Sucks (Your 3 Stars of the Game, though)

[Derps]

Were ZBC to be claiming that Nico's ranks leaguewide could be sustained, I'd agree with that, but there's no reason why Nico's results can't regress towards the mean while still maintaining his rank on the Devils' team in those categories.

Not sure the relevance of any of that. It's the actual number that matters, not how it compares to his teammates. I'm sure he will be at the top of the team in all those categories, but the numbers are probably going to go down.

 

[Derps]

He will likely regress on these numbers back to close to his career averages, but clearly he has been generating a lot of offensive pressure recently.

Even if he can't keep it at the outlier level, the chances will continue and points should follow. Just need to finish on the chances, although of course that's the hard part.

I mean he's pacing 35 points. I think everyone agrees he's going to have more than that so Im sure points will come, too.

 

[Triumph]

Whatever stats you can find, Pavel Zacha finished 1st in points out of everyone else on our roster last year and through 7 games this year, he’s doing it again.

He can have 1 shot per game for all I care, if he’s leading the team in points when everyone has played the same amount of games, minus Jack, that’s the stat that should matter.

Great, Pavel Zacha finished 1st in points on a shitty team while having a totally unsustainable shooting percentage. He's doing it again this year. He must've just figured out how to score goals, and this happens a lot, because we can definitely find lots of players who go from shooting 10% for several years to 15% for several years.

I wish Zacha had figured it out, I really do. It would be nice to have a player like that.

 

[TBF1972]

I am annoyed by losing a point they should have gotten but I am not concerned if that makes sense.

this makes total sense. the devils are on 105 point pace, despite facing some injuries to important players. even fully healthy i don't expect the devils to keep this pace. the team is still young and you can't expect this type of consistency over an 82 game schedule.

so far the seasons developments are incredible positive:
- the imported first pairing plays like one
- bernier looks much more like a bona fide starter than a platoon goalie (although he just the number of games like a platoon goalie)
- last year scape goat is among the team leaders in points and goals
- rookie mercer plays like a vet
- the team gained roster depth with two pto signings
- while not every player performs flawless game to game, the overall product is good enough to be in the games

loses like the ones against calgary and washington are bound to happen to any nhl team and losing in the so lottery like yesterday night in the second game of a back to back can't be a reason for doom and gloom. i expect stretches of much worse play. this board has a short memory. the last two seasons the devils were out of the po race by game 20.

i rather trade for better fans, than ship out bratt, hischier, smith or wedgewood.

 

[Triumph]

Not sure the relevance of any of that. It's the actual number that matters, not how it compares to his teammates. I'm sure he will be at the top of the team in all those categories, but the numbers are probably going to go down.

ZBC didn't cite the actual number, and again, you've gotten amnesia again unfortunately.

Nico's team rank in HDCF%:

2017-18: 5th
2018-19: 2nd
2019-20: 3rd
2020-21: 8th

One big issue with HDCF and the like on the team as it's constructed now is that if Hamilton's ice time with various players is not equally distributed, those players will look better, and right now Nico is one of them - he's played 46 minutes with Hamilton but only 27 minutes with Subban and 20 with Severson. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[Buck Dancer]

this makes total sense. the devils are on 105 point pace, despite facing some injuries to important players. even fully healthy i don't expect the devils to keep this pace. the team is still young and you can't expect this type of consistency over an 82 game schedule.

so far the seasons developments are incredible positive:
- the imported first pairing plays like one
- bernier looks much more like a bona fide starter than a platoon goalie (although he just the number of games like a platoon goalie)
- last year scape goat is among the team leaders in points and goals
- rookie mercer plays like a vet
- the team gained roster depth with two pto signings
- while not every player performs flawless game to game, the overall product is good enough to be in the games

loses like the ones against calgary and washington are bound to happen to any nhl team and losing in the so lottery like yesterday night in the second game of a back to back can't be a reason for doom and gloom. i expect stretches of much worse play. this board has a short memory. the last two seasons the devils were out of the po race by game 20.

i rather trade for better fans, than ship out bratt, hischier, smith or wedgewood.

I think it’s pretty clear that everyone here is extatique about where we’re heading compared to years past but there’s nothing wrong with being worried about the play of certain players that should be carrying this team forward. If you’re paid like a top player, I’m expecting to see you dominate games and look like our best player game in and game out.

I don’t have the same expectations for let’s say Sharangovich because his role isn’t to carry this team. He’s been horrible since the season got underway but I won’t point the finger his way because his role on the team isn’t the same as Nico. It’s not being a bad fan if you want your top guys to play like your top guys.

 

[Derps]

ZBC didn't cite the actual number, and again, you've gotten amnesia again unfortunately.

Nico's team rank in HDCF%:

2017-18: 5th
2018-19: 2nd
2019-20: 3rd
2020-21: 8th

The argument he is making is that there is a disparity between his actual production and his underlying metrics -- something that will be more congruent the longer he has those metrics. This is a sound argument, but I don't think we should assume his metrics will stay the same.

His argument is not that because he has those rankings among the team that the points will come lmfao. It's irrelevant that he keeps those specific rankings. His numbers could get better and he could drop. His numbers could get worse and his team ranking could be better.

Please go away lol you add literally nothing to this conversation

 

[AfroThunder396]

The difference between current Nico and what people were hoping for is, what, 2 extra points? Yeah no I'm not concerned about that.

What I am concerned about is Sharangovich, Kuokkanen, and McLeod being black holes offensively. Our whole gameplan is dependent on the ability to roll four lines and the entire bottom-6 outside of Vesey has been terrible.

I'm also starting to get concerned about Smith, yes he is coming back from an injury but he's made some really horrible defensive decisions.

There's also Tatar, who looked great the first ~3 games or so but has struggled quite a bit. Only Geertsen, Studenic, and Gauthier have a lower xGF over the past 4 games. For comparison, Nico is getting roasted alive for being 2nd on the team behind Hamilton.

So yeah, Nico's offense is not in my top-5 things I'm worried about right now.

 

[TBF1972]

Poor man’s will butcher at the end of the day. Does nothing elite

we might have to add a mid round pick.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Nico's a 2nd line center that's being tasked to play above that because our #1 center is hurt. He'll give you 50-60 points a year, good defense, play in all situations, etc. If people have higher expectations than that it's their fault if they're disappointed.

 

[TBF1972]

I think it’s pretty clear that everyone here is extatique about where we’re heading compared to years past but there’s nothing wrong with being worried about the play of certain players that should be carrying this team forward. If you’re paid like a top player, I’m expecting to see you dominate games and look like our best player game in and game out.

I don’t have the same expectations for let’s say Sharangovich because his role isn’t to carry this team. He’s been horrible since the season got underway but I won’t point the finger his way because his role on the team isn’t the same as Nico. It’s not being a bad fan if you want your top guys to play like your top guys.

the nhl robot with the c should be sent to the scrap press.

apart from not getting enough points, does nico hurt the devils with his play?

 

[JimEIV]

It's not just 7 game though... Nico is averaging 45 point pace over his over his last 100 games.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I don't know if this team becomes a "contender" within 5 years or not, but I really like the team, I like how they play right now, and am going to enjoy following them develop. They should have won that game with those PPs at the end of the 3rd but I'm not gonna let it bother me, there's a lot to build off of here I think.

Bratt has responded in a big way, which is all you can hope for. Johnsson has proven he's an NHL player. I don't think Mercer realizes how long an 82 NHL games season is and will probably hit a wall, he can't keep playing like this but it's gonna be fun to watch.

I know people are down on Sharangovich but he's gonna figure it out. Fun team, gonna eNJoy the ride.

 

[TBF1972]

I keep thinking about when Fitz was assistant GM back in 2015-2016 he did one of those segments they do on the pregame and intermissions, where he gave an analysis on a few of our prospects. And Wedgewood came up and he said ''Future NHL goalie, great potential, blah blah blah''. I know he said ''Future NHL goalie''. We had hardly any prospects to ask him about then. Just Zacha, Santini and I don't know who else. I don't even remember if he gave an analysis on Blackwood or not. Probably Blake Speers and maybe even Bastian.

I giggled at that. But what was he supposed to say? ''The guy sucks? He'll never play a real game in the NHL?''. It was actually right before he made his NHL debut and a little before he was ever even called up to play in the NHL for the first time. He was called up later that year. That was actually his first pro season that he even played better than poorly.

I've been thinking about that segment a lot today and wondering if he really is a big fan of his?

in front of television you will never get their fair evaluation. they are paid to improve the players and advertise the product.

 

[Triumph]

The argument he is making is that there is a disparity between his actual production and his underlying metrics -- something that will be more congruent the longer he has those metrics. This is a sound argument, but I don't think we should assume his metrics will stay the same.

Absolutely nobody would assume that ZBC's argument is that Nico will maintain those metrics because of course he won't, and the actual rates weren't cited.

His argument is not that because he has those rankings among the team that the points will come lmfao. It's irrelevant that he keeps those specific rankings. His numbers could get better and he could drop. His numbers could get worse and his team ranking could be better.

Please go away lol you add literally nothing to this conversation

I believe the argument is that Nico is playing well and that the points will come as a result of Nico playing well, but also that Nico is playing well defensively despite not producing. While ZBC is not making this argument, I will - Nico has been a heretofore average player defensively, by and large. Him being actually good defensively would be a big boost to this team.

 

[JimEIV]

I posted these numbers a couple days ago - So when I calculated each of their last 100 games I believe Nico had 1 point.


Nico has been trending down ever year. Zacha has been trending up every year. Zacha has out produced Nico over each of their last 100 games. And Nico's 100 takes him back to February 2019


Nico's last 100
100 games 22goals + 33 assist = 55 points - 224 shots - .55 PPG
(Career .63 PPG -.08)

Pavel last 100
100 games 27 goals 36 assist = 63 points - 188 shots .63 PPG
(Career .46 PPG + .17 )

The important part is Zacha is +.17 PPG over his career average over his last 100 games and Nico down -.08 to his career average to his last 100.


And I don't think it can be understated that Nico has only played 100 games since February 2019. I mean everyone suffered with the schedules but 100 games in nearly 3 years is probably the biggest problem of them all.

 

[Derps]

Absolutely nobody would assume that ZBC's argument is that Nico will maintain those metrics because of course he won't, and the actual rates weren't cited.



I believe the argument is that Nico is playing well and that the points will come as a result of Nico playing well, but also that Nico is playing well defensively despite not producing. While ZBC is not making this argument, I will - Nico has been a heretofore average player defensively, by and large. Him being actually good defensively would be a big boost to this team.

Seriously what are you even talking about?

"Yes, if Nico continues to have the underlying numbers that he currently does, the points will IN ALL LIKELIHOOD start coming" - ZBC, like 30 minutes ago

You are actively trying to turn his argument into something logically nonsensical by making it about team rankings *which have nothing to do with how good the numbers are*. Bang up work.

 

[MartyOwns]

if nico tops out as a 3c, why is that the worst thing in the world? when you hit on multiple picks, you don't need to rely on reid boucher to play on your top line. we have hughes and mercer who both look like 1/2 line c's. when one inevitably gets injured every year, we'll have nico as a fill in instead of zajac or stephen gionta.

so really, what's the issue? he was drafted 1oa? that means absolutely nothing, he was the consensus and it's completely irrelevant anyway. he's our captain? your captain doesn't have to be your best player, completely irrelevant. he's overpaid for a 3rd line center? that's valid, he would be overpaid by $2M as a 3c. is $2M really what is keeping you up at night?

 

[JimEIV]

if nico tops out as a 3c, why is that the worst thing in the world? when you hit on multiple picks, you don't need to rely on reid boucher to play on your top line. we have hughes and mercer who both look like 1/2 line c's. when one inevitably gets injured every year, we'll have nico as a fill in instead of zajac or stephen gionta.

so really, what's the issue? he was drafted 1oa? that means absolutely nothing, he was the consensus and it's completely irrelevant anyway. he's our captain? your captain doesn't have to be your best player, completely irrelevant. he's overpaid for a 3rd line center? that's valid, he would be overpaid by $2M as a 3c. is $2M really what is keeping you up at night?

Is this a serious question?

We're not doing the McKinnon breakout comparison here anymore?

 

[SJinNewJersey]

Another game and some folks still hating on Nico. There's no need to talk about Wedge, but Smith, Kuok and Rango all don't even look like NHL players at times this year. I am more concerned about them. Smith throws away a point last night and folks are bitching about Nico, come on now.

 

[Triumph]

Nico is right now playing that classic 3C role where he gets 20 minutes a night and plays on PP1 and the penalty kill. Hate to admit it, but it's true.

 

[TBF1972]

My game notes:

• Smith. Jfc. Let him sit for the next game and just recuperate. Like Lindy said, the lack of a training camp is definitely catching up to him. Give him a one game rest and then put him back in. Sandbagged Severson these past couple of games, who I think has looked fairly solid.

• Who should replace Smith in the lineup? I am not sure I would love to see White.

 

[tailfins]

Yes, if Nico continues to have the underlying numbers that he currently does, the points will IN ALL LIKELIHOOD start coming

better?

It’s actually not.

I’m sure someone has done the work on this, but it’s not clear to me if any of the stats you quoted are causal for points or merely correlated. Meaning, I don’t know how much they may explain. Is it really “in all likelihood”, “somewhat likely”, or “hopefully”?

we like to throw around numbers as if there’s a defined relationship between stat a and result x. I haven’t seen anything where it’s that clear though.

 

[Buck Dancer]

if nico tops out as a 3c, why is that the worst thing in the world? when you hit on multiple picks, you don't need to rely on reid boucher to play on your top line. we have hughes and mercer who both look like 1/2 line c's. when one inevitably gets injured every year, we'll have nico as a fill in instead of zajac or stephen gionta.

so really, what's the issue? he was drafted 1oa? that means absolutely nothing, he was the consensus and it's completely irrelevant anyway. he's our captain? your captain doesn't have to be your best player, completely irrelevant. he's overpaid for a 3rd line center? that's valid, he would be overpaid by $2M as a 3c. is $2M really what is keeping you up at night?

The main issue with having a 7M$+ 3rd line center decreases your odds of getting another high priced player at positions of weakness.

I’ll take a 3.5M$ 3rd line center and a 7M$+ winger to play alongside Hughes instead of the other way around.

With that said, I absolutely loved what I saw from Nico in his rookie year. I thought he’d be a poor man’s Patrice Bergeron but what I’ve been seeing from him in the last couple of years, he’s looking more and more like a 45–50 point center with a good defensive game.

 

[JimEIV]

Another game and some folks still hating on Nico. There's no need to talk about Wedge, but Smith, Kuok and Rango all don't even look like NHL players at times this year. I am more concerned about them. Smith throws away a point last night and folks are bitching about Nico, come on now.

If you we had any sort of dependable scoring...Smith's flub and the Goal tending would have MADE zero difference and Dougie's 1 Million shots would have turned into cash