Post-Game Talk: The Gimmick Sucks (Your 3 Stars of the Game, though)

[SteveCangialosi123]

I don't know if anyone was arguing career-wise, but so far this season absolutely Zacha has been better than Tatar.

He said Zacha was our best player and Nico is dragging him down. I don’t make claims like that based on 7 games, that’s loony. Zacha has scored some goals this year. He is not better than Tatar.

 

[Saugus]

I watched most of this game, but didn't post on here because I was simultaneously cooking and handing out candy.

Dougie looked amazing, simply a force on both sides of the puck. Wish he had been able to finish some of his golden chances in the third period and OT though.

Bratt has responded well to his benching, he was absolutely flying out there and creating chaos on the forecheck.

Mercer also had a very strong game, forechecking well and being responsible defensively.

Honorable mention to Johnsson, he had another good game, drawing a penalty and scoring a goal.

Smith was bad with turnovers and did nothing offensively, and should probably be benched or played less next game. Wedgewood wasn't great, but I'm not sure we can fault him for any of the goals. Maybe the third goal was stoppable, but it's tough when you expect the puck to leave the zone, but then there's a turnover at your own blue line and you have less time to get set.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I don't know if any of the goals can be blamed on Wedgewood but he looked really bad on the saves he did make.

 

[Derps]

I don't know, I simply find it funny that I knew coming on here today the talk would be about how Nico ain't doing enough given we lost. Is that really the takeaway from last night? I really want to know if he was that awful. He lead our forwards in TOI, had a primary assist and 4 SOG, he couldn't have been that bad.

This board ALWAYS needs someone to go after. It's just the nature of the beast. I'm sure there are plenty here whose heads are bordering on exploding with Johnsson leading the team in goals and points.

Not sure I get it after last night either, especially considering our defense outside of Hamilton and Graves was horrifying

 

[NJDevs26]

I missed much of this one taking my son on his first Halloween. Anyone be so kind to summarize the good and the bad here?

The good:
Hamilton - a goal, 10 shots and insane team shot stats (see below)
Mercer - again
The Johnsson/Bratt combo

The bad:
Wedge
Ty Smith - two turnovers leading to goals
Our not-so-special teams (AGAIN )

And this could go in both

 

[Saugus]

I don't know if any of the goals can be blamed on Wedgewood but he looked really bad on the saves he did make.

I guess stopping them in whatever way possible is the important part, even if it's not pretty. But good lord, some of those rebounds...

 

[Better Call Sal]

Yeah, it seems to me the biggest problems from what I read (I don't like to assume highlights tell the whole story)

1. Ty had a brutal game and that he may need to take a seat for a game or two. I can see that missing time at camp and not being fully up to speed could be harming him and that he may just need to watch and simplify things a bit.

2. The PP really needs some work, whether it's mixing the units again or practicing it in more depth but they seem way too discombobulated out there. To have the PP time to end regulation and not capitalize is one that will certainly leave a bad taste in everyone's mouths.

Glass half full, I'll take 3 out of 4 in a back-to-back with our 3rd string goalie in net most times that situation comes up. It does sound like we could and should have had this one though, so I get the frustration.

 

[Saugus]

Not sure I get it after last night either, especially considering our defense outside of Hamilton and Graves was horrifying

I think that's overstating it. Subban had a pretty good game also, making correct decisions pinching, creating chances offensively, and not being bad defensively. Severson and Siegenthaler didn't stand out to me either way. Only Smith had a truly dreadful game.

 

[Derps]

I think that's overstating it. Subban had a pretty good game also, making correct decisions pinching, creating chances offensively, and not being bad defensively. Severson and Siegenthaler didn't stand out to me either way. Only Smith had a truly dreadful game.

Not really calling out the 4 of them individually. As the 2 other pairings, I thought they played dreadfully. Divide the blame however you'd like

 

[Buck Dancer]

just a reminder, Nico's ranks among NJ forwards:

Total CF- 1st
CF%- 3rd
xGF%- 2nd
Total HDCF- 1st
HDCF%- 2nd

This means absolutely nothing

 

[Bleedred]

I don't know if any of the goals can be blamed on Wedgewood but he looked really bad on the saves he did make.

Yup, he looks BAD on the saves he makes and even worse on the saves that he doesn't make because he doesn't have to make them because the shots go wide or get blocked.

He flops too many times, slides too many times. It's just so unnecessary. He had one sequence early in OT last night where was moving around the crease going to post when the guy never got a shot off.

Other than that, I thought goal one was stoppable. The only guy screening him was I think it was Severson and he well out. If a guy way up there is screening you, I nail a goalie on that one. The screens I accept are when there's at least one guy right in front that's either completely blocking him or not letting him get up out of the crease to challenge. Or multiple guys in front. There was a goal the other night and I forget who it was on, but a guy jumped right in front of the goalie as the shot was coming through. It was a moving screen and I didn't ding the goalie with a stoppable goal on that one.

The third one was a little more forgivable, but he played it poorly and at that point when we're dominating, you'd really like a save there.

And then in the shootout he didn't even make a save. The first two guys missed.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

This means absolutely nothing

Yes, it absolutely does.

The fact that you may not understand it or not realize that it does is okay

But if he continues to drive play and have that many high danger chances, the points will come.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

This means absolutely nothing

What about the most basic of basic stats? Only 2 goals given up with him on the ice at even strength in ~97 minutes of ice time.

 

[tailfins]

Yes, it absolutely does.

The fact that you may not understand it or not realize that it does is okay

But if he continues to drive play and have that many high danger chances, the points will come.

That is incorrect - and a common problem with the use of “analytics”. It means there’s a probability that the points will come. There is no tautology. These stats do not explain everything.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

That is incorrect - and a common problem with the use of “analytics”. It means there’s a probability that the points will come. There is no tautology. These stats do not explain everything.

Yes, if Nico continues to have the underlying numbers that he currently does, the points will IN ALL LIKELIHOOD start coming

better?

 

[Derps]

Not really sure why we'd be assuming that he's going to keep the underlying numbers that he has now

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Not really sure why we'd be assuming that he's going to keep the underlying numbers that he has now

and why is that, exactly?

 

[Cheddabombs]

He said Zacha was our best player and Nico is dragging him down. I don’t make claims like that based on 7 games, that’s loony. Zacha has scored some goals this year. He is not better than Tatar.

He may not be better than Tatar, but he has played better than him in 7 games so far. It's only 7 games, not making any claims beyond that. But he has been better

 

[Triumph]

You can pull out all the stats you want to diminish Zacha but the stat line you should be paying attention to is his point total because you win games by scoring more goals then the opposing team. Shooting the puck more often then the other team never gave a W when all was said and done.

If that was the case, we would’ve won yesterday since we outshot the BlueJackets, right?

The whole reason I pay attention to something other than point totals is that point totals, by themselves, are not predictive. So Zacha has had a good run in the recent past, but little about that run suggests he will continue it into the future - he's shooting nearly twice his career average, his point totals at non 5v5 even strength are ludicrous (9 points in 58 minutes since the beginning of 2021), and so on. I actually couldn't believe it myself when I saw Zacha only had 8 5v5 shots so far but it's true.

Nico's getting killed on this board for passing on 2 on 1s but he's still getting 7.5 shots/60 at 5v5 and everything else around the shooting seems reasonable as well. The points and goals will come if this continues.

 

[Derps]

and why is that, exactly?

His xG%, CF%, HDCF% are all pretty significant outliers for him. I think HDCF% sitting at 67% is obviously unsustainable.

 

[Buck Dancer]

He said Zacha was our best player and Nico is dragging him down. I don’t make claims like that based on 7 games, that’s loony. Zacha has scored some goals this year. He is not better than Tatar.

Your hate of Pavel Zacha is full throttle. I don’t know why admitting he’s been very good is so shameful for some.

Tatar is a good player as well and trying to downplay the game of Zacha just to pimp the game of two guys who haven’t lived up to expectations thus far is flat out weird to me.

 

[Buck Dancer]

What about the most basic of basic stats? Only 2 goals given up with him on the ice at even strength in ~97 minutes of ice time.

That’s great but we aren’t paying our f***ing captain 7M+ to be Jay Pandolfo.

Are you serious, being happy that our top line center is playing like a shutdown 3rd liner?

We are extremely lucky that we’re icing Dawson Mercer and he’s doing the things he’s doing or else we’d be right there with Montreal and Arizona, asking ourselves who we’d be picking with the 3rd overall pick.

 

[Buck Dancer]

The whole reason I pay attention to something other than point totals is that point totals, by themselves, are not predictive. So Zacha has had a good run in the recent past, but little about that run suggests he will continue it into the future - he's shooting nearly twice his career average, his point totals at non 5v5 even strength are ludicrous (9 points in 58 minutes since the beginning of 2021), and so on. I actually couldn't believe it myself when I saw Zacha only had 8 5v5 shots so far but it's true.

Nico's getting killed on this board for passing on 2 on 1s but he's still getting 7.5 shots/60 at 5v5 and everything else around the shooting seems reasonable as well. The points and goals will come if this continues.

You can throw all the stats at me but what’s important at the end of the day is that Pavel Zacha finished 1st in points out of everyone else on our roster last year and through 7 games this year, he’s doing it again.

He can have 1 shot per game for all I care, if he’s leading the team in points when everyone has played the same amount of games, minus Jack, that’s the stat that should matter.

Leading the team in analytic stats does nothing for the main board, which would be the standings, if it isn’t showing up on the scoreboard at the end of the game.

 

[Triumph]

His xG%, CF%, HDCF% are all pretty significant outliers for him. I think HDCF% sitting at 67% is obviously unsustainable.

Were ZBC to be claiming that Nico's ranks leaguewide could be sustained, I'd agree with that, but there's no reason why Nico's results can't regress towards the mean while still maintaining his rank on the Devils' team in those categories.

 

[Saugus]

His xG%, CF%, HDCF% are all pretty significant outliers for him. I think HDCF% sitting at 67% is obviously unsustainable.

He will likely regress on these numbers back to close to his career averages, but clearly he has been generating a lot of offensive pressure recently.

Even if he can't keep it at the outlier level, the chances will continue and points should follow. Just need to finish on the chances, although of course that's the hard part.