Pre-Game Talk: The game #6

[studDUGY]

Did any of you guys receive a PM from a Sens fan saying "woosh" after Tampa took a 3-0 lead? I deleted his PM but forgot to write his name down.

Just because... you know... in case...

 

[Nynja*]

Only in a certain section apparently, but I'm not sure what section(s) this is. I believe they're also banning QC addresses from purchasing tickets. So much for being grateful for revenue sharing

Probs the spots that wont wind up on tv, anything on the hard-cam side.

Either way, owners should make a complaint about teams that do this. However...is playoff revenue subject to the revenue sharing?

 

[Habsawce]

Probs the spots that wont wind up on tv, anything on the hard-cam side.

Either way, owners should make a complaint about teams that do this. However...is playoff revenue subject to the revenue sharing?

It's still hockey related revenue, so yes.

 

[Harpo]

We lose in 6, or win in 7.

Just like the Sens.

 

[No More Subban]

Did any of you guys receive a PM from a Sens fan saying "woosh" after Tampa took a 3-0 lead? I deleted his PM but forgot to write his name down.

Just because... you know... in case...

Wow.. PM'ing Habs fans? That dude needs to get a life!

 

[Tyson]

This next game will be tough no doubt. Habs have it in them to win but if they lose I am proud of them for making this a tough series. No sweep!

 

[Born in 1909]

Pacioretty
Subban
Galchenyuk

These guys are due for goals.

even Eller...

This gives me hope for a Game 6 win.

(... and Pleks too )

 

[Brainiac]

The one thing I'm really afraid of is Tampa having a lucky game. You know, a game where all the bounces go their way.

We are playing better, but just a little bit of puck luck can overturn whatever effort the guys put in.

 

[Nynja*]

It's still hockey related revenue, so yes.

Yeah just looked it up, 35% of all gate revenue is pooled.

 

[Tyson]

Pateryn has more points than Markov in the playoffs...who would have thought?

 

[Habsawce]

Pateryn has more points than Markov in the playoffs...who would have thought?

Does that include Markov's goal in game 1 vs. Ottawa?

 

[studDUGY]

Does that include Markov's goal in game 1 vs. Ottawa?

lirl

 

[FF de Mars]

Pateryn has more points than Markov in the playoffs...who would have thought?

He doesn't really play against the same opposition though.

 

[Bill McNeal]

there should be a website regarding playoff series that shows the percentage of series that are 3-0 gome to game 5, 6 and seven.

i would say that getting past game 6 in a 0-3 scenario is extremely rare(10% succes rate or less) but im not sure exactly how rare.

http://www.puckreport.com/2009/04/nhl-playoff-comebacks-trailing-3-0.html

i found one.

Breaking it down by round, teams have held a 3-0 lead 46 times in the Preliminary round, 62 times in the Quarterfinals, 43 times in the Semifinal, and 27 times in the Stanley Cup Final. 110 of 178 times (62%), leading teams took the series in Game 4. Of the 68 teams that have survived a sweep, only 9 (13%) lived to skate in a Game 7.


tb have a 87% chance of winning tuesday i take it.

The thing the Habs have going for them (when looking at it from a purely probabilistic standpoint) is that usually when a team goes down 3-0 in a series it's because they're considerably worse than their opponent. 62% of those previous series ending in game 4 kinda highlights that.

If a team can force game 7, it just confirms that they're pretty evenly matched with their opponent. And looking at the 9 series that did go to game seven, it essentially becomes a coin toss.

4/9 teams completed the come back
5/9 times the home team won the game

Only twice was the higher seeded team the one that trailed 3-0, both times Toronto, and they won one and lost one.

But the sample size is so small, and frankly there's no real correlation between past events and predicting these comebacks other than the logical conclusions that you can arrive at (e.g. good teams beat worse teams).

Habs have given themselves two flips of a coin to win this series. Just gotta hope they get a little luck...

 

[Dagistitsyn]

How about that vicious punch to the back of the head Weise gave Coburn last night?

Will suck for the Lightning to lose such an important player from their team for game 6, but after a hit like that it's doubtful he will be able to go on Tuesday.

What you did there, I see it.

 

[Hullois]

The one thing I'm really afraid of is Tampa having a lucky game. You know, a game where all the bounces go their way.

We are playing better, but just a little bit of puck luck can overturn whatever effort the guys put in.

They've been lucky all series. All the bounces have gone their way all series. Never seen this amount of posts in one series since the Bruins last year.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Well, I predicted Habs in 7 so...

Carey Price will have to steal a game if we want to win.

Or you know... we could just outplay them instead. That'd be nice.

We've actually been the better team this series. I'm happy with how we've played overall.

 

[LesHabsRock]

Well, I predicted Habs in 7 so...


Or you know... we could just outplay them instead. That'd be nice.

We've actually been the better team this series. I'm happy with how we've played overall.

I feel the longer this series goes it favours Montreal. Tampa has not had a break playing virtually every other day since the start of playoffs. After game 7 vs Detroit they played game 1 vs Montreal on one day's rest. Other than two two day breaks (like the one we're in now) Tampa is definitely not the freshest team. Heck, Dale Weise even mentioned before game 5 that his team feels very fresh.

 

[TimGolbert]

there should be a website regarding playoff series that shows the percentage of series that are 3-0 gome to game 5, 6 and seven.

i would say that getting past game 6 in a 0-3 scenario is extremely rare(10% succes rate or less) but im not sure exactly how rare.

http://www.puckreport.com/2009/04/nhl-playoff-comebacks-trailing-3-0.html

i found one.

Breaking it down by round, teams have held a 3-0 lead 46 times in the Preliminary round, 62 times in the Quarterfinals, 43 times in the Semifinal, and 27 times in the Stanley Cup Final. 110 of 178 times (62%), leading teams took the series in Game 4. Of the 68 teams that have survived a sweep, only 9 (13%) lived to skate in a Game 7.


tb have a 87% chance of winning tuesday i take it.

Nope. That statistic includes teams that lost in game 5. Montreal has already made it to game 6

 

[Brainiac]

Is that real?

http://www.hockeyfeed.com/report-lightning-introduce-very-controversial-new-ban-for-possible-game-6/

Tampa wants to censor other team's logos (i.e. Habs logo) for game 6??

Just finish them, they don't even deserve to exist in a competitive environment.

 

[studDUGY]

Why am I so scared of this game... Like, there's still another game even if the Habs win Game 6. This feels so much like a Game 7 already.

 

[Nicko999]

Well, I predicted Habs in 7 so...


Or you know... we could just outplay them instead. That'd be nice.

We've actually been the better team this series. I'm happy with how we've played overall.

That's in a ideal world but I expect Tampa to come out strong and throw everything at us. Price stole Game 6 vs Ottawa. He needs to do the same tomorrow.

 

[Kriss E]

The thing the Habs have going for them (when looking at it from a purely probabilistic standpoint) is that usually when a team goes down 3-0 in a series it's because they're considerably worse than their opponent. 62% of those previous series ending in game 4 kinda highlights that.

If a team can force game 7, it just confirms that they're pretty evenly matched with their opponent. And looking at the 9 series that did go to game seven, it essentially becomes a coin toss.

4/9 teams completed the come back
5/9 times the home team won the game

Only twice was the higher seeded team the one that trailed 3-0, both times Toronto, and they won one and lost one.

But the sample size is so small, and frankly there's no real correlation between past events and predicting these comebacks other than the logical conclusions that you can arrive at (e.g. good teams beat worse teams).

Habs have given themselves two flips of a coin to win this series. Just gotta hope they get a little luck...

The parity in this league has never been as close either. So I would argue a comeback from 0-3 was much tougher back then, almost unfeasible. In today's NHL though, it's not really surprising anymore. Still a rare occurrence, but not as crazy as it once was. In this current series, TB is lucky to be up 3-2, heck, they're lucky to not have been eliminated yet. Other than game 2, you could easily make the case that the Habs were the better overall team. Could have been 4-1 Habs for now.
So ya, it wouldn't surprise me to see them in push this to 7.

 

[LesHabsRock]

I think the team will reflect on the Rangers series in the Conference Finals last year at this point. They were down 3-2 in the series after winning game 5 at home. They knew that if they could win game 6 they liked their chances in a game 7 in front of their fans. Well, they lost game 6 1-0. I believe they'll draw from that game and learn from it this time around. They remember the feeling of being eliminated in that game. They don't want that feeling again. Let's win game 6 boys.

 

[Brainiac]

He doesn't really play against the same opposition though.

Even then.

Offensively, Markov has been a disappearing act for years.

When his defense is elite, I don't care, but this year...

This guy should just play less minutes.