News Article: The future of Doug Wilson in San Jose

[FunkyPhin]

Sure, he could be speaking differently behind the scenes, but he hasn't acted on it in a way that supports that though.

I think you'd have to wait until the offseason to see what he thinks of this team. I didn't expect any of the big contracts to be moved during the TDL, but I'd be shocked if in the offseason 1 of Burns, Couture, Vlasic, or Jones was still with the team.

I just can't imagine DW thinking that this team is 1-2 pieces away from contending after the 2 tire fire seasons we've just had, no one is that blind, even if he's trying to save his own ass.

 

[Nolan11]

to be fair, you dont know what he is saying behind the scenes, only what he chooses to say publicly.

I've given up on listening to what DW says. At this point, only his actions and inactions matter to me. Jux's earlier post on DW needs to admit to himself what the issues are was spot on. I have long felt that DW knows the issues, but refuses to fully address them because, IMO, that would be admitting to both the fans and the owners of his past failings. If DW owns up to the past and starts making some hard decisions on the future this offseason, I will be OK with him staying on. If it is more platitudes and half measures, I have better things to do with my time.

Since the offseason where DW played chicken with Jumbo and Patty, only signed John Scott and purposefully did nothing to move the needle for this team, I stopped giving this team my money. (I have attended very few games since then, but remain "a fan" waiting for the day when the front office actually boldly commit to our future. Since that point, I measure each offseason by asking myself, what were we deficient in last year, and what did DW do to address the problem.

Last offseason, he added Donato and Dubnyk. It was very easy to predict our success would not be markedly different (although I hoped that the last year's major injuries were more to blame for our 3rd from last place finish. Unfortunately, this year proved it wasn't just due to the injury bug).

So for me, I am waiting for DW to do something that proves he wants to move the needle. Move one of our big contracts (I almost dont care who or even how, except that he needs to hold on to 1st round picks). Actively make this team worse for one more year, or make it obviously better (via a big hole filled in, either C or G or both). More re-set/refresh nonsense and I will join the villagers with pitchforks (I may even supply the torches).

 

[NWSharkie]

IMO the depth is also a consequence of their drafting, developing, and system scheming. If Wilson understands that his contracts' debt is coming due, then he should understand that his lack of emphasis on development and system is also coming due. Maybe he does understand that, given how Boughner's system taken on multiple personalities this season. But unless he changes direction in the coaching/personnel departments, then he's not resetting or rebuilding. He's just buying time so he can go back to his old tricks in the offseason. The glass half full view would be that he's great at dealing. The glass half empty view would be that he's continuing to ignore the flaws that never got him over the hump.

I don't entirely disagree, but there's a bit of a circular argument to be made about drafting. A consistent playoff team is going to be drafting out of the back half of the first round at best, and a team that doesn't draw top FAs is going to have to use draft picks or prospects to build the roster through trade, costing you depth once again. Ultimately, it's a lot harder to build a farm system that way and it's not a surprise that the result has been a lot of bottom-9 forwards and bottom-4 defensemen.

The biggest knocks I'd have against DW would be:
-Poor scouting and drafting from the amateur ranks, drafting for "hockey IQ" over actual skill. That's been better since DW Jr.'s arrival, and before that was somewhat made up for by Euro FAs like Donskoi, Best Karlsson, etc.

-Not having a goalie coach worth a damn since Warren Strelow died, though Nabby and/or Francilia might be showing some promise

-Leaving Roy Sommer in place despite pedestrian development results.

On the other hand, he's been willing to go to the mat for free agents since Hasso took over, hasn't been afraid to pay guys what they're worth to keep them, and hasn't been too sentimental to let veterans walk once they don't fit the plan. He's been more aggressive since they lost in 2014, and the team's played 10 playoff rounds in the five years since. I have my complaints about how the team's run, but they're mostly the same as when they were winning consistently. I'm probably being too conservative, but I don't really see how firing Wilson makes the team better in the short-to-medium term.

 

[magic school bus]

I think you'd have to wait until the offseason to see what he thinks of this team. I didn't expect any of the big contracts to be moved during the TDL, but I'd be shocked if in the offseason 1 of Burns, Couture, Vlasic, or Jones was still with the team.

I just can't imagine DW thinking that this team is 1-2 pieces away from contending after the 2 tire fire seasons we've just had, no one is that blind, even if he's trying to save his own ass.

Idk, he definitely can't say we suck and it's my fault for both trading for and re-signing Karlsson. And I'm also responsible for giving Vlasic, Burns, Couture and Jones all the deals that are screwing us. (Oh, and btw Hasso I also forgot to put trade protections on the 1st rd pick in the Karlsson trade.) He's saving his own ass, not that he'd need to with this league being such an old boys club but nonetheless.

I didn't expect all of them to be moved already, but any forward-thinking GM started having these discussions this time last year. Since then, almost all of our big name players except Kane have lost value.

If he had put the core on the trade block it would be an open secret by now. 32 teams can't keep a secret for months on this many players.

 

[OrrNumber4]

While I’d definitely feel reassured if he did do that, I could understand the DougSpeak (the “just a reload, we’ll be better next year I swear!!”) to a degree since it doesn’t do much for your ticket sales to admit that you’re going to be bad for multiple years. So all we can really do is judge DW on his actions.

If he manages to off-load a big contract this summer (Vlasic, Burns, Couture, Jones, Karlsson) without giving up a 1st round pick/Bordeleau, then that would speak to me.

Fair enough, but we also have a lot of data points when it comes to action. He hasn't moved a single non-tertiary piece. I suppose he hasn't traded a first rounder...

 

[Juxtaposer]

Fair enough, but we also have a lot of data points when it comes to action. He hasn't moved a single non-tertiary piece. I suppose he hasn't traded a first rounder...

Yup, and if he doesn’t move a serious piece this summer, I’ll have my answer.

 

[matt trick]

I would like to see the team get actively worse this offseason. The fastest way to recovery is 1-2 more years of tanking.

Out: Burns, Couture/Hertl/Meier, Simek (expansion), if someone overpays for Donato or Labanc move one of them as well. I’m okay with a Jones buyout, but I’d prefer to just waive him and let him play with the Cuda/ECHL. Ultimately, I’d rather wait him out another 3 years when we likely want use all that cap anyway then keep spending 1.6 for three extra years. I get those who want to show you need to perform to stay with the org, but think it’s prudent to avoid impacting subsequent years.

Top 6 F: Kane, Hertl/Meier, Hertl/Couture, Labanc/Donato, Balcers, Leonard
Top 6 D: Karlsson, Ferraro, #4/5 UFA, Vlasic, Knyzhov, Merkley
Goalie: Korenar, Decent 2 year signing

Draft: Berniers, Hughes, Clarke, Power, Guenther, Elkund, Johnson. The f we can pick up a 12-16th pick, I’d love to see us add the goalie.

 

[Barrie22]

I would like to see the team get actively worse this offseason. The fastest way to recovery is 1-2 more years of tanking.

Out: Burns, Couture/Hertl/Meier, Simek (expansion), if someone overpays for Donato or Labanc move one of them as well. I’m okay with a Jones buyout, but I’d prefer to just waive him and let him play with the Cuda/ECHL. Ultimately, I’d rather wait him out another 3 years when we likely want use all that cap anyway then keep spending 1.6 for three extra years. I get those who want to show you need to perform to stay with the org, but think it’s prudent to avoid impacting subsequent years.

Top 6 F: Kane, Hertl/Meier, Hertl/Couture, Labanc/Donato, Balcers, Leonard
Top 6 D: Karlsson, Ferraro, #4/5 UFA, Vlasic, Knyzhov, Merkley
Goalie: Korenar, Decent 2 year signing

Draft: Berniers, Hughes, Clarke, Power, Guenther, Elkund, Johnson. The f we can pick up a 12-16th pick, I’d love to see us add the goalie.

So you would rather eat nearly 3 million extra in cap space for 3 years, then have those extra 3 million now?

 

[Sysreq]

i'm guessing he gets promoted to pres of hockey ops or something like that and remove him from actual GMing duties

This is the way forward. I think Doug is an NHL icon at this point and deserves a mountain of praise for the success this franchise has seen under his management. It would be a mistake to let him go, as he would be hired immediately by another team.

That said, I think it’s time we got a fresh take on the roster, let go of some of our past loyalty, and moved forward with a new generation of leadership.

I think that starts by getting a young, aggressive GM. Doug should absolutely still be in the conversation, and should absolutely be in a spot to mentor and grow the organization. But it’s time to let someone else run the day to day while Doug is allowed to focus on more of the long term trends in hockey and the overall success of the group.

The other thing I want to mention here is that success isn’t linear. Experience comes from making mistakes and learning from failure. If we cut rope simply because things don’t go as planned then we fail to accrue the value of those failures. Keeping Doug Wilson in the organization is key if we want to continue moving forward. If we get a new person into that role without having someone like Doug to mentor and guide them, we have simply thrown the baby out with the bath water. We abandoned all the resources we have poured into Doug over these past seasons, and simply reset the clock right back to where we began. Growth comes from building in the past. Let’s not forget all the good work that got us here. Let’s not abandon the people who have historically brought us so much success.

And Doug has brought us success. We are one of the winningest franchises during his tenure, both during the regular season and the play-offs.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

This is the way forward. I think Doug is an NHL icon at this point and deserves a mountain of praise for the success this franchise has seen under his management. It would be a mistake to let him go, as he would be hired immediately by another team.

That said, I think it’s time we got a fresh take on the roster, let go of some of our past loyalty, and moved forward with a new generation of leadership.

I think that starts by getting a young, aggressive GM. Doug should absolutely still be in the conversation, and should absolutely be in a spot to mentor and grow the organization. But it’s time to let someone else run the day to day while Doug is allowed to focus on more of the long term trends in hockey and the overall success of the group.

The other thing I want to mention here is that success isn’t linear. Experience comes from making mistakes and learning from failure. If we cut rope simply because things don’t go as planned then we fail to accrue the value of those failures. Keeping Doug Wilson in the organization is key if we want to continue moving forward. If we get a new person into that role without having someone like Doug to mentor and guide them, we have simply thrown the baby out with the bath water. We abandoned all the resources we have poured into Doug over these past seasons, and simply reset the clock right back to where we began. Growth comes from building in the past. Let’s not forget all the good work that got us here. Let’s not abandon the people who have historically brought us so much success.

And Doug has brought us success. We are one of the winningest franchises during his tenure, both during the regular season and the play-offs.

The leafs tried that with Lou and he left immediately. I suspect DW would do the same.

 

[Harbessix]

Doug has also never been in a position where he’s really had to rebuild before. I think I’d like to give him and DW jr a chance with decent draft positions for a change.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Doug has also never been in a position where he’s really had to rebuild before. I think I’d like to give him and DW jr a chance with decent draft positions for a change.

If Doug had championships under his belt, I'd be willing to let him go through a rebuild because I'd at least know when the team is good enough, we'd really compete for more championships. But his job when the team was competing left a lot to be desired for me to where I wouldn't trust him to put this team over the top when the time came. His coaching decisions are suspect. His roster building was suspect. He's good but not good enough so I'd move on as soon as possible.

 

[Harbessix]

Well either way I suppose we should find out in a few short months. I imagine any decision to move on would be made prior to the draft.

 

[weastern bias]

Doug has missed the playoffs in back to back years for the first time in his tenure, he's literally never had a worse stretch run in his Sharks career and he's created a salary structure that guarantees things are only gonna get worse over the next 3-5 seasons

It's time to move on, I want Doug fired on the last day of the season so that another GM can begin the rebuild in earnest before DW has a chance to make a "swing for the fences" move to try and save his job

I appreciate everything Wilson has done here but it's time to tear it all down

 

[tealzamboni]

This is the way forward. I think Doug is an NHL icon at this point and deserves a mountain of praise for the success this franchise has seen under his management. It would be a mistake to let him go, as he would be hired immediately by another team.

That said, I think it’s time we got a fresh take on the roster, let go of some of our past loyalty, and moved forward with a new generation of leadership.

I think that starts by getting a young, aggressive GM. Doug should absolutely still be in the conversation, and should absolutely be in a spot to mentor and grow the organization. But it’s time to let someone else run the day to day while Doug is allowed to focus on more of the long term trends in hockey and the overall success of the group.

The other thing I want to mention here is that success isn’t linear. Experience comes from making mistakes and learning from failure. If we cut rope simply because things don’t go as planned then we fail to accrue the value of those failures. Keeping Doug Wilson in the organization is key if we want to continue moving forward. If we get a new person into that role without having someone like Doug to mentor and guide them, we have simply thrown the baby out with the bath water. We abandoned all the resources we have poured into Doug over these past seasons, and simply reset the clock right back to where we began. Growth comes from building in the past. Let’s not forget all the good work that got us here. Let’s not abandon the people who have historically brought us so much success.

And Doug has brought us success. We are one of the winningest franchises during his tenure, both during the regular season and the play-offs.

IMO the dilemma shouldn't necessarily be all about Doug. The two assistant GMs have been in the organization for about a few decades each. Sommer has coached the AHL squad for some 20 years. Boughner's on his second rodeo here. Junior has been around for 8ish years. Are these departments just following Wilson's orders? Or do they imperfectly implement Wilson's vision?

This is not to diminish the work and careers of anyone. Nor is it to say that anyone who's part of the problem should be automatically terminated just because. It's just an attempt to figure out what can yield better results moving forward.

If Wilson is the supreme commander, then maybe the focus on change should center on him. If it's the staff that's not performing up to expectations and Wilson works in spite of this, then maybe some roles should be created or chairs shifted around. And if both Wilson and the staff are complicit, then maybe the clock does need to be reset. And the new GM needs a freer hand.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

Let’s not forget that the pandemic and the ensuing flat cap have tied Doug’s hands and made the situation with salary commitments way worse than they would have been otherwise. The team is stuck right now, but would it have been this bad if the external circumstances would not have been there?

Also, a part of me feels like this period of time was necessary. The best organizations have to go through a crisis to evolve to a better state. I feel the Sharks are doing that now.

 

[DG93]

If Doug had championships under his belt, I'd be willing to let him go through a rebuild because I'd at least know when the team is good enough, we'd really compete for more championships. But his job when the team was competing left a lot to be desired for me to where I wouldn't trust him to put this team over the top when the time came. His coaching decisions are suspect. His roster building was suspect. He's good but not good enough so I'd move on as soon as possible.

I would also be very worried about him keeping Sommer around for the development years, which would be terrible. I'd assume that the new GM would be smart enough to clean house at the AHL level...

 

[matt trick]

So you would rather eat nearly 3 million extra in cap space for 3 years, then have those extra 3 million now?

You're asking would I rather have cap space now or in the three years, correct? All things being equal, based on what we know now, my answer is I'd rather have it in three years where SJ may be a competitive team. If SJ won the lottery and got Beniers, I might shift my decision. I think adding a potential #1 center Kesler/Couturier type to the team, combined with guys like Bordeleau, Wiesblatt, and Gushkin and some extra cap space from a Jones buyout being put into a legitimate goalie, might be just enough to get them back to respectable.

That said, don't see sufficient building blocks to think we're a goalie and an Edvinsson type away from being good. As such I'm all in on two things- tanking for franchise building blocks and having the assets (cap, futures, prospects, and decent vets) for those franchise building blocks to be set up for success.

Say we get Edvinsson (1 year seasoning), Lambert (0 seasoning), and Yager (0 seasoning). By the time they (and Bordeleau) come up for their first non-ELC contract, the only current contracts left would be a year of Vlasic and 2 years of Couture and Karlsson. Kane, Jones, Burns, Labanc all off the books.

Hard to project what a the team will look like in 4-5 years, but there's definitely some rough times ahead. No desire to extend those bad times.

 

[magic school bus]

Let’s not forget that the pandemic and the ensuing flat cap have tied Doug’s hands and made the situation with salary commitments way worse than they would have been otherwise. The team is stuck right now, but would it have been this bad if the external circumstances would not have been there?

Also, a part of me feels like this period of time was necessary. The best organizations have to go through a crisis to evolve to a better state. I feel the Sharks are doing that now.

I keep seeing this excuse. I'm sorry, but a cap that's ~$5M higher doesn't make these terrible contracts look much better.

 

[Hodge]

Is it overdramatic to say that the decision on Hertl will singlehandedly determine the future trajectory of this team? Trade Hertl at the draft and we're clearly in rebuild mode regardless of what they want to call it. Extending Hertl means we're still trying to compete and will be for the foreseeable future.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Is it overdramatic to say that the decision on Hertl will singlehandedly determine the future trajectory of this team? Trade Hertl at the draft and we're clearly in rebuild mode regardless of what they want to call it. Extending Hertl means we're still trying to compete and will be for the foreseeable future.

Not overly dramatic. I don't see that happening though. At least I hope not. Meier and Labanc should go before Toemosh

 

[Hodge]

Not overly dramatic. I don't see that happening though. At least I hope not. Meier and Labanc should go before Toemosh

Definitely agree but Hertl should have quite a bit more trade value than them at this time. So he would be the most logical trade piece if they wanted to initiate an actual rebuild. Conversely, extending him beyond next season would be at the top of your agenda if you believed this core is still good enough to compete. I agree with you though that I do not see Tommy getting traded.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

I keep seeing this excuse. I'm sorry, but a cap that's ~$5M higher doesn't make these terrible contracts look much better.

While a higher cap is not a silver bullet by itself, it has a downstream effect of allowing other teams to have more flexibility to absorb higher dollar trades. There were a lot fewer deals that got done this year because most teams just didn’t have the flexibility.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Let’s not forget that the pandemic and the ensuing flat cap have tied Doug’s hands and made the situation with salary commitments way worse than they would have been otherwise. The team is stuck right now, but would it have been this bad if the external circumstances would not have been there?

I'm sympathetic, but would you do this in reverse?

For the first decade into the lockout, growth *far* exceeded expectations. DW certainly took advantage of that. Who here was saying "well, before your praise DW so much, let's not forget that the insane growth and ensuing rising cap have freed up DW's hands and made the situation with salary commitments way better than they would have been otherwise."...

 

[LeeIFBB]

Nuke the front office from orbit.