(the expected) "Soooo now what are the lines?" thread.

[PlayMakers]

So I see Fraser had 37 fights in his final three seasons in the WHL. Only 3 as a professional in the past two years. Even if he's not a particularly good fighter, you'd think he'd mix it up a little more giving him added value as a bottom-6 forward. I don't like his chances of making it as a pure goal scoring 3rd line winger. Just won't be enough opportunity. Bottom-6'ers need to find other ways to make themselves valuable when not scoring.... and he doesn't sound like much of a defensive player or physical player.....

Neither was Michael Ryder.

I don't think we should get too caught up in "top 6" and bottom 6 roles. The Bruins don't play their third line as a traditional checking unit. They've always tried to get one or two players on that line that would be considered "top6" talent on a less deep team. That line will be even less (defense-first) if they trade Kelly or move him to the wing and have Soderberg centering that line. And that appears to be something they're interested in at least trying out.

 

[PlayMakers]

Ceiling in what way?

Seems to me like there are major holes in his game. Do we have the patience to have him work out those kinks in Boston. or would it be better for his overall game to get a full season with OUR coaching staff with our goals and ambitions to strive for?

He really does seem like a great kid. And finishing ability is something the Bruins lacked BEFORE Horton and Seguin left, let alone where we're at now. His skillset seems to match the team perfectly. What he'll need to do though, is get the puck HIMSELF and not simply wait for someone to get it TO him in a good shooting area. If he's on the third, it's not likely that Kelly is going to be the guy that can do that for him.

If I were to venture to guess, I'd say he fits better on the Bergeron line than any other.

Eriksson - Bergeron - Fraser
would be more than defensively responsible and would have possession for 80% of their shifts together.

Fwiw, I haven't seen "major holes" in his game. Granted I've only seen a handful of his games, but even in limited minutes I've seen a guy who will cover for a pinching defenseman, hustle on the back check, and try to cover his man in the defensive zone. I don't see great defense, but I didn't notice any problems.

I've mentioned this before... I see him as a Glen Murray type. He's not going to wow anyone with this 1on1 skills, or his skating (though I think he'd beat GM27 in race, like Colt said, decent top speed, just takes a second to get it going). Like Muzz, he's big but he doesn't play mean or hit to hurt. He keeps it simple; chips it in, battles to get it back, cycles and gets open. He's a heavy guy along the walls and he works hard which means he wins more battles than he loses. Where he's a "plus" player is in his ability to shoot. He shoots with velocity and accuracy. He can put it on net from anywhere and not just on net, but on a corner of the net.

I see Fraser as being where Marchand was his first year here. Marchand dominated the AHL for his first two seasons, got some games in Boston in that second year, but didn't really hit his stride in the NHL until his third year pro. Likewise, Fraser has dominated the AHL in his first two years, got some games in the NHL in year two, and is about to start his third pro year. As such, I think they give him every opportunity to stick in Boston.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Fwiw, I haven't seen "major holes" in his game. Granted I've only seen a handful of his games, but even in limited minutes I've seen a guy who will cover for a pinching defenseman, hustle on the back check, and try to cover his man in the defensive zone. I don't see great defense, but I didn't notice any problems.

I've mentioned this before... I see him as a Glen Murray type. He's not going to wow anyone with this 1on1 skills, or his skating (though I think he'd beat GM27 in race, like Colt said, decent top speed, just takes a second to get it going). Like Muzz, he's big but he doesn't play mean or hit to hurt. He keeps it simple; chips it in, battles to get it back, cycles and gets open. He's a heavy guy along the walls and he works hard which means he wins more battles than he loses. Where he's a "plus" player is in his ability to shoot. He shoots with velocity and accuracy. He can put it on net from anywhere and not just on net, but on a corner of the net.

I see Fraser as being where Marchand was his first year here. Marchand dominated the AHL for his first two seasons, got some games in Boston in that second year, but didn't really hit his stride in the NHL until his third year pro. Likewise, Fraser has dominated the AHL in his first two years, got some games in the NHL in year two, and is about to start his third pro year. As such, I think they give him every opportunity to stick in Boston.

Sorry Bill... It's scouting reports aside from yours that I'm going off of and NOT first-hand accounts of his play. If I've ever seen him beyond the highlights on youtube, I don't remember.

If it's common that he has no interest in defense and that his skating is a big minus, then I'm going to go off those reports. Oh and his intensity tends to wave in and out.

That's not to say... The thing is, I just haven't seen him. And another big difference is how much confidence I have in the coaching staff in Boston to pull out the best in him. I think his skillset is valuable and I think it fits.

I just remember watching Boychuk when he was first called up and liking quite a few things about his game... But his footspeed and agility were atrocious. He's not a blazer now by any means, but I wouldn't consider his skates to be a major flaw in Manchuk's game anymore. He spent some time getting to know what was going to be expected of him if he wanted to play for the Bruins, blew the doors off the AHL and made the team in Boston (and top four) pretty convincingly after a while in Providence.

If Fraser is truly ready to make that jump, here's the thing: I don't see him on a checking line or a defense "first" line. And I'll base that on what everyone else is saying as well as your own observations. I don't think he's going to be the guy who checks hard on the boards, grabs the puck and makes the play to jump start the offense. Like Murray, I see him as a guy who gets into shooting areas and waits for the puck to come to him (much of the time). Difference: Murray's shot was an NHL "A" and I'm doubtful Fraser can be considered such yet. And Fraser is probably going to be more adept than Murray in tight and personal the opposition's goaltender. Thank god for that, because MAN do we need someone good in that area of the ice.

 

[DKH]

Fwiw, I haven't seen "major holes" in his game. Granted I've only seen a handful of his games, but even in limited minutes I've seen a guy who will cover for a pinching defenseman, hustle on the back check, and try to cover his man in the defensive zone. I don't see great defense, but I didn't notice any problems.

I've mentioned this before... I see him as a Glen Murray type. He's not going to wow anyone with this 1on1 skills, or his skating (though I think he'd beat GM27 in race, like Colt said, decent top speed, just takes a second to get it going). Like Muzz, he's big but he doesn't play mean or hit to hurt. He keeps it simple; chips it in, battles to get it back, cycles and gets open. He's a heavy guy along the walls and he works hard which means he wins more battles than he loses. Where he's a "plus" player is in his ability to shoot. He shoots with velocity and accuracy. He can put it on net from anywhere and not just on net, but on a corner of the net.

I see Fraser as being where Marchand was his first year here. Marchand dominated the AHL for his first two seasons, got some games in Boston in that second year, but didn't really hit his stride in the NHL until his third year pro. Likewise, Fraser has dominated the AHL in his first two years, got some games in the NHL in year two, and is about to start his third pro year. As such, I think they give him every opportunity to stick in Boston.

I'm hoping he can become like Brandon Bochenski. I liked him a lot when he came over and he was incredible in the AHL- he showed up scoring 33 goals in 35 games with Ottawa AHL team. He had good size and a great, great shot. Like Fraser he was not physical but could he ever pick it.

What concerns me on Fraser is that shot chart of his- yikes. You are not going to score if you take most of your shots from 40 feet out. Also, for a big guy who is supposed to be lethal around the net the stats confirm he was rarely down there. Its one thing to say my eye balls tell me he was but data is data.

Give me Brandon Bo on the third line LW and I'll be happy. People need to be patient with this kid- he may need some time in Providence and comparisons to Ryder (by me), who plays down low in the scoring areas- he may be floating/hovering but its close to the net- and other players are totally unfair.

 

[DKH]

Sorry Bill... It's scouting reports aside from yours that I'm going off of and NOT first-hand accounts of his play. If I've ever seen him beyond the highlights on youtube, I don't remember.

If it's common that he has no interest in defense and that his skating is a big minus, then I'm going to go off those reports. Oh and his intensity tends to wave in and out.

That's not to say... The thing is, I just haven't seen him. And another big difference is how much confidence I have in the coaching staff in Boston to pull out the best in him. I think his skillset is valuable and I think it fits.

I just remember watching Boychuk when he was first called up and liking quite a few things about his game... But his footspeed and agility were atrocious. He's not a blazer now by any means, but I wouldn't consider his skates to be a major flaw in Manchuk's game anymore. He spent some time getting to know what was going to be expected of him if he wanted to play for the Bruins, blew the doors off the AHL and made the team in Boston (and top four) pretty convincingly after a while in Providence.

If Fraser is truly ready to make that jump, here's the thing: I don't see him on a checking line or a defense "first" line. And I'll base that on what everyone else is saying as well as your own observations. I don't think he's going to be the guy who checks hard on the boards, grabs the puck and makes the play to jump start the offense. Like Murray, I see him as a guy who gets into shooting areas and waits for the puck to come to him (much of the time). Difference: Murray's shot was an NHL "A" and I'm doubtful Fraser can be considered such yet. And Fraser is probably going to be more adept than Murray in tight and personal the opposition's goaltender. Thank god for that, because MAN do we need someone good in that area of the ice.

I would not know Matt Fraser if I ran into him down the park walking my dog- I know little about his game, however, this chart from last year does not show him as being able to use his one identifiable asset optimally- that shot.

It also indicates he spent much of his time with Eriksson and Eakin (like him a lot, got him from the Caps for Ribiero)

This was written last month by Josh Lile on SB Nation- Analytical Astrolabe Measuring Dallas Stars Matt Fraser

Those notes are somewhat counter-intuitive because the Stars seemed lackluster and ineffective most of the time when Fraser was on the ice. That might be because the shots Fraser took were less than impressive. His shot chart is below. The average distance on a Fraser shot was over 40 feet away from the net. Check out some of the places from where he took these shots:Fraser_shots_medium


The shot from center ice is going to distort his average shot distance a little, but the fact remains that Fraser was volume shooting. On the one hand that's a good thing. The Stars need to get pucks at the net. On the other hand it speaks to Fraser's game in general. He needs to work at getting into better scoring areas to utilize his shot more effectively.

Another thing to consider is that the idea behind putting numerous pucks on net should generate rebounds. So, players crashing the net with someone like Fraser chucking pucks would be ideal. Eakin has that ability, but Eriksson is anything but a net crasher.

Given those realities and the organizational changes it might be a good time to reconsider Fraser. The idea that he is only going to have value as a top six forward simultaneously limits his future and sets him up for failure.

A lot of NHLers break into the NHL playing bottom six minutes until they earn top six minutes. I've come around to the idea that Fraser could be successful in a bottom six role in 2014 playing with net crashers like Antoine Roussel and Ryan Garbutt. They aren't huge playmakers, but their ability to drive the net would open more space for Fraser to operate and create rebound opportunities.

Also limiting him to only top six minutes puts unrealistic expectations on him. Produce, or get out. That's a real high pressure way to begin an NHL career. Fraser is going to need to develop some other secondary skills before he can be a dependable top six forward, but he isn't going to develop those playing in the AHL or only playing second line minutes.In 2014 I would expect to see Fraser playing bottom six minutes for the Stars while trying to develop other aspects of his game. If he is able to develop other aspects of his game (skating, playmaking, defending, etc.) he could make a home for himself in Dallas. Realistically it is still a long shot that he will develop to be more than a bottom six winger, but if he is going to we will likely see some of those steps taken in 2014

hmmmm....the shot chart did not show up.

He almost seems between a rock and a hard place- but he may be on the right team that can develop him on the third line and learn the Claude way of defense and those secondary skills.

 

[BadBruins]

Neither was Michael Ryder.

I don't think we should get too caught up in "top 6" and bottom 6 roles. The Bruins don't play their third line as a traditional checking unit. They've always tried to get one or two players on that line that would be considered "top6" talent on a less deep team. That line will be even less (defense-first) if they trade Kelly or move him to the wing and have Soderberg centering that line. And that appears to be something they're interested in at least trying out.

Ryder at his worst was still a PP asset and a 20/20ish player. I'm taking about how hard it is to stick when you play 10-13 minutes per game at ES only and must to score to contribute. It's basically the roleless position that's prone to long droughts.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I've thought more about the roster over the past couple weeks and I think the team will ultimately decide to put one of the top 6 forwards onto the 'third' line. It just doesn't seem likely the team will stick two rookies with kelly and roll them for 12-15 mins

Witg that in mind I'm thinking eriksson/soderberg end up as bergeron's wingers for our world class shutdown line.

Iginla joins lucic/krecji for our 'top' line

And marchand becomes the featured guy on the third line. One of spooner/knight/caron is my gut call for the available spot with the other two back in providence. Kelly seams to be staying?

Reilly smith looks like an upgrade over pandolfo or daugavins for 13th forward.

I'm thinking fraiser gets a chance to score goals in providence and becomes trade bait later on.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I've thought more about the roster over the past couple weeks and I think the team will ultimately decide to put one of the top 6 forwards onto the 'third' line. It just doesn't seem likely the team will stick two rookies with kelly and roll them for 12-15 mins

Witg that in mind I'm thinking eriksson/soderberg end up as bergeron's wingers for our world class shutdown line.

Iginla joins lucic/krecji for our 'top' line

And marchand becomes the featured guy on the third line. One of spooner/knight/caron is my gut call for the available spot with the other two back in providence. Kelly seams to be staying?

Reilly smith looks like an upgrade over pandolfo or daugavins for 13th forward.

I'm thinking fraiser gets a chance to score goals in providence and becomes trade bait later on.

 

[NUhockey]

Spooner. He may be very well ready physically to handle multiple roles. He just needs the right linemates to keep his head in the game to go with the high end skill.

 

[PlayMakers]

I'm hoping he can become like Brandon Bochenski. I liked him a lot when he came over and he was incredible in the AHL- he showed up scoring 33 goals in 35 games with Ottawa AHL team. He had good size and a great, great shot. Like Fraser he was not physical but could he ever pick it.

What concerns me on Fraser is that shot chart of his- yikes. You are not going to score if you take most of your shots from 40 feet out. Also, for a big guy who is supposed to be lethal around the net the stats confirm he was rarely down there. Its one thing to say my eye balls tell me he was but data is data.

I don't know about the Bochenski comp. Bo was a 23 year old AHL rookie and he was 24 in the season you talked about (in Ottawa). Fraser put up his 37 & 33 goal seasons at 21 and 22 (when Bochenski was still in college). They can both shoot, but Fraser is bigger and looks better along the walls than Bochenski ever did, IMO.

I also wouldn't put much stock in a shot chart that's based on a player's first ten NHL games. He scores from everywhere in the AHL. High, low, slot, one-timers, rebounds... What would a shot chart have told us about Brad Marchand at the same point in his NHL career? There were a half-dozen games in that span where Marchand didn't even get a shot on goal, and another half dozen where he only had 1 shot on goal. All told, Marshy finished with 1pt in his first 20+ NHL games, and fans here were writing him off, saying he was invisible, trade bait.

 

[Saxon Eric]

He sounds like Brian Dobbin

 

[DKH]

I don't know about the Bochenski comp. Bo was a 23 year old AHL rookie and he was 24 in the season you talked about (in Ottawa). Fraser put up his 37 & 33 goal seasons at 21 and 22 (when Bochenski was still in college). They can both shoot, but Fraser is bigger and looks better along the walls than Bochenski ever did, IMO.

I also wouldn't put much stock in a shot chart that's based on a player's first ten NHL games. He scores from everywhere in the AHL. High, low, slot, one-timers, rebounds... What would a shot chart have told us about Brad Marchand at the same point in his NHL career? There were a half-dozen games in that span where Marchand didn't even get a shot on goal, and another half dozen where he only had 1 shot on goal. All told, Marshy finished with 1pt in his first 20+ NHL games, and fans here were writing him off, saying he was invisible, trade bait.

Two folks mentioned the Brandon Bo comparison which I thought was pretty amazing- both have seen him. I have no idea because I never focused on him. The two things I have been suprised at and they come from two different writers who cover Dallas is he is not an initiator of contact. And he does not get high percentage shots and is actually extremely poor at this - he just shoots pretty much giving up possession (but he must be great at the Men in Black ride at Universal Studios).

I am not impressed and explains why a poor Dallas team would give him up, Aninal House had a saying infront of their college campus- 'knowledge is good' in this case I think until shown on the ice all these plaudits for Fraser need to be tapered down even if to give the kid realistic expectations

 

[DKH]

He sounds like Brian Dobbin

Brian Dobbin the Hersey Bears killer who played with the Flyers and got in a half dozen games with Boston and scored his last NHL goal for- doesn't seem that long ago? Dave Lewis?. What an AHL stud just did not have that extra gear to stay up here- kid could really snipe though, he could knock those pies down in any All Star competition

 

[InvalidUsername]

Two folks mentioned the Brandon Bo comparison which I thought was pretty amazing- both have seen him. I have no idea because I never focused on him. The two things I have been suprised at and they come from two different writers who cover Dallas is he is not an initiator of contact. And he does not get high percentage shots and is actually extremely poor at this - he just shoots pretty much giving up possession (but he must be great at the Men in Black ride at Universal Studios).

I am not impressed and explains why a poor Dallas team would give him up, Aninal House had a saying infront of their college campus- 'knowledge is good' in this case I think until shown on the ice all these plaudits for Fraser need to be tapered down even if to give the kid realistic expectations

Oh, the irony.

 

[Over the volcano]

Two folks mentioned the Brandon Bo comparison which I thought was pretty amazing- both have seen him. I have no idea because I never focused on him. The two things I have been suprised at and they come from two different writers who cover Dallas is he is not an initiator of contact. And he does not get high percentage shots and is actually extremely poor at this - he just shoots pretty much giving up possession (but he must be great at the Men in Black ride at Universal Studios).

I am not impressed and explains why a poor Dallas team would give him up, Aninal House had a saying infront of their college campus- 'knowledge is good' in this case I think until shown on the ice all these plaudits for Fraser need to be tapered down even if to give the kid realistic expectations

Went to look up what happened to
Bochenski after he was unable to put together an NHL game- ends up he's found some real success in the KHL along with my former hopeful kevin dallman.

 

[DKH]

Oh, the irony.

um, what do you mean

 

[bruinsfan46]

My predicted lines:
Lucic - Krejci - Iginla
Marchand - Bergeron - Eriksson
Soderberg - Kelly - Smith
Paille - Campbell - Thornton
Caron

Smith is the only one of the young guys who actually played most of last season in the NHL. I'd love to find a way for Spooner to get into the lineup but I don't think he's a fit on Kelly's wing. Fraser gets a long look I imagine but if he's not always engaged and not a 200 foot player yet, I think he goes to Providence and works on some things. Caron is no longer waiver exempt and I imagine they don't want to risk losing a first rounder for nothing and he's so cheap and a complete player I do think somebody might claim him. I think 13th forward if not a spot on the third line for him, definite trade bait too. Knight and Camara are long shots to me and I would bet both at least start the season in the AHL. If Knight was healthy and produced last year he would have a great chance to break camp with the team.

 

[SlimBrady]

Marchand would be rlly good with spooner as his C I think but no way he leaves Bergy!! Wouldnt mind Mayson Raymond for the 3rd line as he brings rlly good speed and can score but dno how much he would want or if we have anything to give him. If not its between Caron, Spooner, Fraser or Smith for the 3rd line RW spot!

 

[CapeB]

My predicted lines:
Lucic - Krejci - Iginla
Marchand - Bergeron - Smith
Soderberg - Spooner - Eriksson
Paille - Campbell - Thornton
Caron/Fraser

I know this line-up is a long shot but I have a good feeling about Reilly Smith and Ryan Spooner. I also like the Soderberg-Eriksson pairing because it gives Boston 3 solid lines.

Although the Marchand - Bergeron -Seguin slowed down and was dismantled in the playoffs, it was a solid line for the better part of 2 years. Of all our prospects, I see Reilly Smith being the most similar to Seguin at this stage of their development. He has good speed, offensive ability and more NHL experience than the other prospects. It's obvious that Reilly Smith isn't as talented as Seguin but nonetheless he could be a great fit for Bergeron - Marchand line. He has put up outstanding numbers in college and the AHL - one of the top college goal scorers as a sophmore and produced over a point a game in the AHL as a rookie. He has also done well with advanced hockey stats metrics during his tenure in the NHL. Here is a few sentences from Defending Big D website "Smith is second on the Stars in Corsi Relative. When Reilly has been on the ice offense has happened. He could easily have two or three goals just from offense he created himself. He still has some work to do, but he is obviously a gifted player."

I also have a good feeling about Spooner. I think he will play his way on the team and force Boston to move Kelly. As Kirk mentioned in his rankings, Spooner is "Fast, creative, and slick with dynamic offensive ability. Led all AHL rookies in scoring and has improved his overall game significantly from the time he was drafted." However, I also want to note that Spooner has been one of the most dominant Boston players over the years in the AHL statistically speaking. When looking at AHL scoring, I tend to focus on rookie scoring versus overall scoring as it seems to translate better into NHL success. Spooner (0.97 Pts/G) has put up numbers in between Marchand (0.75 Pts/G) and Krejci (1.07 Pts/G) in his AHL rookie season. Marchand finished in the top 10 in Pts/G in his AHL rookie season while both Krejci and Spooner finished in the top 5. Many players who finish in the top 5 in Pts/G in AHL rookie scoring end up making their way to the NHL within the next couple years. Giroux, Couture, Purcell, Brassard, Ryan, Conacher, Krejci to name a few.

 

[Colt.45Orr]

However, I also want to note that Spooner has been one of the most dominant Boston players over the years in the AHL statistically speaking. When looking at AHL scoring, I tend to focus on rookie scoring versus overall scoring as it seems to translate better into NHL success. Spooner (0.97 Pts/G) has put up numbers in between Marchand (0.75 Pts/G) and Krejci (1.07 Pts/G) in his AHL rookie season. Marchand finished in the top 10 in Pts/G in his AHL rookie season while both Krejci and Spooner finished in the top 5. Many players who finish in the top 5 in Pts/G in AHL rookie scoring end up making their way to the NHL within the next couple years. Giroux, Couture, Purcell, Brassard, Ryan, Conacher, Krejci to name a few.

It should also be mentioned that for about 1/2 the season he put up those points playing against a very stacked league that had NHLers that wouldn't normally be there (Voynov etc).

 

[LavioletteScores]

This has probably already been written, but the interesting thing about that third line competition is, the guys who we envision as being able to take a spot (Spooner, Fraser, Smith) are all left-handed shots. Kelly and Soderberg are both left-handed as well.

The only two right-handed guys who can challenge for that RW spot are Caron and Cunningham. It would be interesting if Chia started the roster with an all left-handed third line.

Bottom line, though. This preseason will be a lot more interesting to watch with actual spots up for grabs. If Kelly or Soderberg don't come in and compete (not that they wouldn't, but they will need to fight harder for a spot this year), I wouldn't be surprised to see either traded.

 

[don]

This has probably already been written, but the interesting thing about that third line competition is, the guys who we envision as being able to take a spot (Spooner, Fraser, Smith) are all left-handed shots. Kelly and Soderberg are both left-handed as well.

The only two right-handed guys who can challenge for that RW spot are Caron and Cunningham. It would be interesting if Chia started the roster with an all left-handed third line.

Bottom line, though. This preseason will be a lot more interesting to watch with actual spots up for grabs. If Kelly or Soderberg don't come in and compete (not that they wouldn't, but they will need to fight harder for a spot this year), I wouldn't be surprised to see either traded.

Check your info. Caron is also a leftie.

 

[DKH]

This has probably already been written, but the interesting thing about that third line competition is, the guys who we envision as being able to take a spot (Spooner, Fraser, Smith) are all left-handed shots. Kelly and Soderberg are both left-handed as well.

The only two right-handed guys who can challenge for that RW spot are Caron and Cunningham. It would be interesting if Chia started the roster with an all left-handed third line.

Bottom line, though. This preseason will be a lot more interesting to watch with actual spots up for grabs. If Kelly or Soderberg don't come in and compete (not that they wouldn't, but they will need to fight harder for a spot this year), I wouldn't be surprised to see either traded.

the real third line battle is at center- Kelly is what he is and has value to the Bruins and all things is a good player who can play LW as well as C; Soderberg vs Spooner is the issue- both are significantly more comfortable and better players at center; Chiarelli said it to Amalie Bemjamin about Soderberg- Spooner has said it himself; and as someone who has seen many of Spooner's games I would not move him from center. If there is no spot at center going forward then trade him for a winger with same value. I'd go with Spooner at third line center and make Soderberg move

 

[Fire Sweeney]

Spooner. He may be very well ready physically to handle multiple roles. He just needs the right linemates to keep his head in the game to go with the high end skill.

Only problem if Spoon makes the team is that you'll have two natural centers in Soderberg and Spooner centered by the black hole Kelly. Whoever makes the team, we just have to hope Iginla goes back to his 40-goal form as long as deadweight like Kelly prevents any scoring from the 3rd line.

 

[Confound]

Smith over Eriksson on the second line, wooo, that's pretty bad.