The Everything Rebuilding/Development Thread: Leafs Clinch Pre-Lotto 4th
- Thread starter Daisy Jane
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Will be cheering on the Leafs for a win against the Canadiens. Hopefully our players are able to increase their trade value tonight.
I don't think there is anything they can do to increase their trade value in this one meaningless game.
45.5% chance to draft 5th overall (if 5th-14th last ranked teams win the lottery)
45% chance to draft 4th overall (Buffalo, Arizona or Edmonton win the lottery)
9.5% chance to draft McDavid (Toronto wins the lottery and drafts 1st overall)
The Leafs did not clinch the 4th overall pick. They clinched the 5th overall pick with a 45% chance to move up to 4th if one of the bottom 3 teams win the draft lottery and a 9.5% chance to move up to 1st pick if the Leafs win the lottery. That means there is a 54.5% chance we get 4th overall or better. But a 45.5% chance we are stuck with 5th overall.
After the Leafs put in all this effort towards tanking, it will be a heart breaker if the Leafs end up with only 5th overall while a better team than us ends up with McDavid. LOL. We had 5th overall in 2008 (Luke Schenn) and 2012 (Morgan Rielly). There is a 45.5% chance we end up with the 5th overall pick so it's not unlikely at all.
The 5th overall pick in 2015 will probably turn out to be more valuable than Morgan Rielly. But still. It's a heart breaker that the Leafs haven't had better than a 5th overall pick since 1985 (Wendel Clark, 1st overall). The Tyler Seguin pick doesn't count because we traded it to Boston.
45% chance to draft 4th overall (Buffalo, Arizona or Edmonton win the lottery)
9.5% chance to draft McDavid (Toronto wins the lottery and drafts 1st overall)
The Leafs did not clinch the 4th overall pick. They clinched the 5th overall pick with a 45% chance to move up to 4th if one of the bottom 3 teams win the draft lottery and a 9.5% chance to move up to 1st pick if the Leafs win the lottery. That means there is a 54.5% chance we get 4th overall or better. But a 45.5% chance we are stuck with 5th overall.
After the Leafs put in all this effort towards tanking, it will be a heart breaker if the Leafs end up with only 5th overall while a better team than us ends up with McDavid. LOL. We had 5th overall in 2008 (Luke Schenn) and 2012 (Morgan Rielly). There is a 45.5% chance we end up with the 5th overall pick so it's not unlikely at all.
The 5th overall pick in 2015 will probably turn out to be more valuable than Morgan Rielly. But still. It's a heart breaker that the Leafs haven't had better than a 5th overall pick since 1985 (Wendel Clark, 1st overall). The Tyler Seguin pick doesn't count because we traded it to Boston.
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Dingers
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AcerComputer
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It's fairly concensus that the next teir of players after McEichel is Hanafin, Strome, Marner. with any one of them possibly going 3-5.
Not going to be too upset if we drop to 5. I'd rather be at 4 than 5 of course, which removed the potential to drop to 6th, now that would be annoying.
King Mapes
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Warden of the North
Ned Stark's head
If Noah Hanifin can become a complete two-way #1D and Dylan Strome and Mitchell Marner can become first-line centres, any of those picks would do. We have a desperate need for a first-line centre. And we need more depth at defense. Dion Phaneuf is miscast as a two-way #1D. Dion Phaneuf should be given a role similar to what he had in Calgary when he was scoring 50-60 points a season.
I can easily see a scenario though where the Leafs draft Mitchell Marner 5th overall and Marner ends up not living to his potential because of his lack of size. Though size is very much overrated in the NHL anyway. Big guys run into concussion problems too (ie. Eric Lindros). It's not just the smaller guys like Sidney Crosby who get bullied around on the ice. And there are plenty of smaller NHL centres who go on to be NHL all-stars and hall of famers (though the game is getting bigger these days).
If we can get one of Marner/Strome @ 4
Trade Phaneuf or Kessel for a package including a mid 1st.
Package mid 1st + Preds 1st for a top 10ish 1st.
Select one of Werenski/Provorov.
We can be walking away from the draft with a #1 C and a #1 D
Trade Phaneuf or Kessel for a package including a mid 1st.
Package mid 1st + Preds 1st for a top 10ish 1st.
Select one of Werenski/Provorov.
We can be walking away from the draft with a #1 C and a #1 D
ULF_55
Moderator
This year there are 4 PPG players in the top 20, youngest is 22.
Last year 8 in the top 20, none were rookies.
2012-2013 there were 2 in the top 20.
Brown and Hudon are only rookies in top 20, Brown 12th., Hudon 20th.
This is off topic anyway, so we should leave it at, Brown has had an impressive season it's there in black in white in the scoring results.
ULF_55
Moderator
Yes. Historically the odds of drafting a top 6 forward/top 4 D-Man go down sharply early on in an NHL entry draft. Let alone drafting a franchise player. This is a deep draft year. But still.
If you were to take a random successful NHL team and look at their top 6 forwards, top 4 defenseman and their starting goalie, you'll probably notice that there are more late first-round and later round picks (or even undrafted guys) that make up their "core" than you would think. Scouting and youth development is everything in the NHL.
Mess
Global Moderator
According to those 2 which are among the biggest in the business its
Strome/Hanifin in #3/4 spots and Lawson Crouse at #5.
They can pad their stats, if certain players reached certain point milestones for the season that could potentially increase their trade value. A good final showing wouldn't be all that bad either.
Apotheosis
Registered User
Dios mio...
They should call it Feels and Furious. Not Fast and Furious. I haven't cried that much watching a movie in a while. The only thing that could remedy my sorrow is a lottery win...
They should call it Feels and Furious. Not Fast and Furious. I haven't cried that much watching a movie in a while. The only thing that could remedy my sorrow is a lottery win...
Warden of the North
Ned Stark's head
We dont have to get a franchise player this draft. What we need is a 1C or a 1D. They aren't necessarily the same thing.
ULF_55
Moderator
Yep, franchise would be nice, but so would a Monahan!
And a 1c, with Nylander being a 2c, would be huge building blocks.
The Winter Soldier
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A Center upgrade to what we have is a must. We need better #1C, #2C, and #3C's quite frankly.
A #1D with Rielly as our #2D would be nice also.
We only need to tank for a couple years in order to be successful. Look at the Chicago Blackhawks' "core" (top 6 forwards, top 4 defensemen, starting goalie). We need a Jonathan Toews type of guy. Phil Kessel is arguably our Patrick Kane type of guy. But the ship might have sailed for Phil Kessel. Patrick Kane won a Stanley Cup at 21 years old. Phil Kessel will be 28 next season and wingers peak earlier than any other position in the NHL. Will Phil Kessel still be our Patrick Kane for much longer when the Leafs finally have their **** together?
Draft Picks
- 2 high draft picks (star goal-scorer Patrick Kane, franchise player 1C Jonathan Toews)
- 1 mid-round draft pick (Brent Seabrook)
- 3 second-round draft picks (Brandon Saad, Corey Crawford, Duncan Keith)
- 1 fourth-round draft pick (Niklas Hjalmarsson)
- 1 fifth-round draft pick (Andrew Shaw)
Trades/UFAs
- 1 trade for a then-UFA rental (Johnny Oduya)
- 1 high-profile UFA (Marian Hossa)
- 1 reclamation project UFA (Brad Richards)
Chicago Blackhawks
Top 6 Forwards (sorted by TOI)
Jonathan Toews - 3rd overall 2006 (Chicago draft pick)
Marian Hossa - 12th overall 1997 (UFA signing, high-profile)
Brandon Saad - 43rd overall 2011 (Chicago draft pick)
Patrick Kane - 1st overall 2007 (Chicago draft pick)
Andrew Shaw - 139th overall 2011 (Chicago draft pick)
Brad Richards - 64th overall 1998 (UFA signing, misfit from the NY Rangers, reclamation project)
Top 4 Defensemen (softed by TOI)
Duncan Keith - 54th overall 2002 (Chicago draft pick)
Brent Seabrook - 14th overall 2003 (Chicago draft pick)
Niklas Hjalmarsson - 108th overall 2005 (Chicago draft pick)
Johnny Oduya - 221st overall 2001 (acquired via trade, UFA rental player in 2012, re-signed by Blackhawks)
Starting Goalie
Corey Crawford - 52nd overall 2003 (Chicago draft pick)
Draft Picks
- 2 high draft picks (star goal-scorer Patrick Kane, franchise player 1C Jonathan Toews)
- 1 mid-round draft pick (Brent Seabrook)
- 3 second-round draft picks (Brandon Saad, Corey Crawford, Duncan Keith)
- 1 fourth-round draft pick (Niklas Hjalmarsson)
- 1 fifth-round draft pick (Andrew Shaw)
Trades/UFAs
- 1 trade for a then-UFA rental (Johnny Oduya)
- 1 high-profile UFA (Marian Hossa)
- 1 reclamation project UFA (Brad Richards)
Chicago Blackhawks
Top 6 Forwards (sorted by TOI)
Jonathan Toews - 3rd overall 2006 (Chicago draft pick)
Marian Hossa - 12th overall 1997 (UFA signing, high-profile)
Brandon Saad - 43rd overall 2011 (Chicago draft pick)
Patrick Kane - 1st overall 2007 (Chicago draft pick)
Andrew Shaw - 139th overall 2011 (Chicago draft pick)
Brad Richards - 64th overall 1998 (UFA signing, misfit from the NY Rangers, reclamation project)
Top 4 Defensemen (softed by TOI)
Duncan Keith - 54th overall 2002 (Chicago draft pick)
Brent Seabrook - 14th overall 2003 (Chicago draft pick)
Niklas Hjalmarsson - 108th overall 2005 (Chicago draft pick)
Johnny Oduya - 221st overall 2001 (acquired via trade, UFA rental player in 2012, re-signed by Blackhawks)
Starting Goalie
Corey Crawford - 52nd overall 2003 (Chicago draft pick)
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Really hoping our scouts get it right, and we choose the BPA at our draft position.
DopeyFish
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Crouse shouldn't even be drafted in the top 10.
Picking him at 5 would be a wasted pick and I'd probably stop watching the leafs.
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