The Edmonton Oilers and Math

[Gambl0r83*]

There is 66 games left for this team. To say they're out of it now is short sighted. The team is getting better each game and is on the brink of turning the corner.

One winning streak, which they are very capable of will put us back at .500 before half way through the season, then they can compete their way into a wildcard or come close

This article will look very silly at the 42 game mark, if the progress of the team identity continues

When Connor comes back, that could be the catalyst that pushes this team into a couple winning streaks in feb/march and secure that spot

If we hit that wildcard, i'm noting this thread and re-opening it before the 1st game. Then whoever doubted and mocked this team in this thread, can look back at how silly and short sighted it was they didn't see the development down the stretch

 

[scb23]

Pacific division is wide open. We've had the toughest schedule in the league so far AINEC. They just need to stay focused and keep pushing.

 

[nexttothemoon]

There is 66 games left for this team. To say they're out of it now is short sighted. The team is getting better each game and is on the brink of turning the corner.

One winning streak, which they are very capable of will put us back at .500 before half way through the season, then they can compete their way into a wildcard or come close

This article will look very silly at the 42 game mark, if the progress of the team identity continues

When Connor comes back, that could be the catalyst that pushes this team into a couple winning streaks in feb/march and secure that spot

If we hit that wildcard, i'm noting this thread and re-opening it before the 1st game. Then whoever doubted and mocked this team in this thread, can look back at how silly and short sighted it was they didn't see the development down the stretch

Man I hope you can make fun of us all here... I'll cook the crow personally and serve big hearty servings to all us doubters here.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

The Oilers are by far the most consistently unsurprising team in the NHL.

Every single season they are reliably mediocre from the outset and show very few signs of rising above that ceiling of mediocrity.

We all KNEW this wasn't a playoff team and sure enough they give no signs that they are a playoff team.

It's disappointing that they are so reliable in that aspect. For even 1 season it would be nice to have some frivolous hope beyond the pre-season that they could surprise and at least have an outside shot at a wildcard spot... not even a "real chance" at one... just an outside shot... but they can't even really rise to that level of false hope.

Oh well... I'll still watch from time to time but I have to admit without McDavid in the lineup, the draw to watch this team flounder their way to an inevitable 10th straight season of ineptitude certainly has less and less appeal as the season winds down.

Is it summer yet? Just... 7 more months.

This is what happens when you go an entire decade of missing the playoffs and get four first overall picks yet somehow still fail to acquire a single top 3 defender. Just horrible drafting, scouting, and overall management.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Pacific division is wide open. We've had the toughest schedule in the league so far AINEC. They just need to stay focused and keep pushing.

Actually the Oilers have had the 8th toughest schedule in the NHL this season.

Take a look at the SOS (strength of schedule) stat on this site that takes into account opponents of each team as well as goal differentials:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2016.html

Then when you take the strength of schedules into account you can see the SRS ratings which takes that into account as well as goal differentials and the Oilers currently rank as the 6th worst team in the NHL this season.

So yes there are worse teams so far... but they are still a bottom 6 team so far. It is still early and we'll see if they can improve on that.

Again though there really is only Calgary and Anaheim that have been clearly worse than Edmonton in the West... and that includes taking into account the difficulty of each team's schedule.

The East has several more weak teams... but unfortunately the Oilers don't live in the East... they are stuck in the West and with Anaheim slowly improving, it appears the Flames will be the only real competition for last place in the West unless the Oilers can start some semblance of developing consistent success vs Western teams which has been their Achilles' Heel for what feels like eons.

 

[I am the Liquor]

It pains me that I had to write this today, but I did. It's time.

Here's some simple math, and the fact that the Oilers have pretty much played their last meaningful game of the season:

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/11/the-edmonton-oilers-and-some-cold-hard-math/

Not that we were expecting playoffs this year, but I think we were all hoping for meaningful games in March.

We will be pulling for losses with Leaf fans.

 

[Fourier]

It is way to early to suggest that "math" means the Oiler's season even if the sole measure of success is making the playoffs. I say this because as of right now there is a reasonable chance that 3rd place in the Pacific requires a fair bit less points than in normal years. A streak of 5 out of 7 for example would potentially put them very close to a playoff spot especially if those were mostly divisional games.

Do I think they will make the playoffs? No, I think it is very unlikely. But I am also less than convinced that Vancouver and Arizona will continue to play at the level they are right now. So it is possible that the pack in the Pacific tightens and the Oilers fate will depend a lot on how they fair vs teams like Calgary, Arizona, Vancouver, SJ and Anaheim going forward. .

 

[Oilfan2]

It must be nice to have any kind of positivity towards this team's chances for the playoffs.

I see just about every other team in the NHL improving in the last while...except the Oilers. Even the CBJ, the TML and the Flames are moving up while the Oil stagnate.

My prediction...

The Oilers will be out of the playoffs, again, by Xmas. They will hit the basement of the NHL and flirt back and forth there for the rest of the season. I suspect they'll be in last or close to it by the end of the season and will win the draft lottery again.

If the rest of the NHL sees that...and no reason to believe they don't..the 1st OA pick should be worth a king's ransom.

Chia has some work to do.....

 

[dssource]

Oilers are 7 pts out of 3rd in our division. Nucks have 1 more win than we do. Yotes own the #2 spot. The Arizona *&%$in Coyotes! We saw how bad a team they are in the last game! Nuff said.

This division is very weak. Do all the math you want, the Oilers still have a good chance to catch up to these teams. I'm not saying they will take one of the top three, just that extrapolating using this weak start against top teams won't give you a clear picture of how the season will end.

 

[Oilfan2]

Oilers are 7 pts out of 3rd in our division. Nucks have 1 more win than we do. Yotes own the #2 spot. The Arizona *&%$in Coyotes! We saw how bad a team they are in the last game! Nuff said.

This division is very weak. Do all the math you want, the Oilers still have a good chance to catch up to these teams. I'm not saying they will take one of the top three, just that extrapolating using this weak start against top teams won't give you a clear picture of how the season will end.

Perhaps not but the Oilers history over the last number of years, and their play this season also mirrors that, tells us they will end up in the same place they have previously.

And the division is only weak because of the slow start. LA is back, Van and Sj are playing ok, ANA is improving quickly and even Arizona (who will probably be last year's Flames) is doing well.It's been a strong division in the past and is already trending in that direction. By season's end, it will be back to being one of the strongest in the NHL..with the Oil at the bottom as usual.

 

[Ranfordrocks]

if oilers did draft mathews id just bury him in minors let him play more jr or over seas before signing him development time so also doesn't affect cap for number of years

 

[Why]

There is 66 games left for this team. To say they're out of it now is short sighted. The team is getting better each game and is on the brink of turning the corner.

One winning streak, which they are very capable of will put us back at .500 before half way through the season, then they can compete their way into a wildcard or come close

This article will look very silly at the 42 game mark, if the progress of the team identity continues

When Connor comes back, that could be the catalyst that pushes this team into a couple winning streaks in feb/march and secure that spot

If we hit that wildcard, i'm noting this thread and re-opening it before the 1st game. Then whoever doubted and mocked this team in this thread, can look back at how silly and short sighted it was they didn't see the development down the stretch

I keep saying Im done with coming to this board because of all the negativity, but here I am yet again checking all day everyday! Its like a serious drug habit I just can't kick

 

[Perfect_Drug]

if oilers did draft mathews id just bury him in minors let him play more jr or over seas before signing him development time so also doesn't affect cap for number of years

Would get us a player like Karlsson or doughty.

 

[NewBoysClub97*]

I'm. Checked out. Not really interested these days. Haven't watched a full game in two weeks.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Oilers are 7 pts out of 3rd in our division. Nucks have 1 more win than we do. Yotes own the #2 spot. The Arizona *&%$in Coyotes! We saw how bad a team they are in the last game! Nuff said.

This division is very weak. Do all the math you want, the Oilers still have a good chance to catch up to these teams. I'm not saying they will take one of the top three, just that extrapolating using this weak start against top teams won't give you a clear picture of how the season will end.

I think this makes it more frustrating. I don't speak for anyone else but I feel that the fact that the division is so wide open and the oilers still can't pull a streak together is indicative of the teams chances to compete long term.

They should be higher in the standings, they seem to be able to play better team hockey, some of the players are growing, they've been injured. None of this matters if they cant win two or three in a row.

 

[stompinstoms]

There is 66 games left for this team. To say they're out of it now is short sighted. The team is getting better each game and is on the brink of turning the corner.

One winning streak, which they are very capable of will put us back at .500 before half way through the season, then they can compete their way into a wildcard or come close

This article will look very silly at the 42 game mark, if the progress of the team identity continues

When Connor comes back, that could be the catalyst that pushes this team into a couple winning streaks in feb/march and secure that spot

If we hit that wildcard, i'm noting this thread and re-opening it before the 1st game. Then whoever doubted and mocked this team in this thread, can look back at how silly and short sighted it was they didn't see the development down the stretch

I hope you're right. I really do. But the article simply points out the statistical improbability at this point.

 

[Gret99zky]

When the Oilers overtake the Panthers' 10-consecutive-years-out-of-the-playoffs record next season, and stand alone as the most inept organization of the modern era, will they make rings for the team/management or will a simple banner ceremony suffice?

 

[Oilers10]

Lol the worst performing team in pro sports and the guys that have run the team are sitll employed within it. Only in Edmonton.

 

[Wretched Oil]

I'm. Checked out. Not really interested these days. Haven't watched a full game in two weeks.

See you when the fair weather comes back ☺

 

[Fourier]

I hope you're right. I really do. But the article simply points out the statistical improbability at this point.

But it may be based on a false premise and that is that the point total needed to finish third in the Pacific is in the mid 90's. Typically this is the case, but you also have to remember that as of November 13th 2014 the standings in the Pacific had

Anaheim 25 pts
Vancouver 24 pts
Los Angeles 20 pts
Calgary 20 points
San Jose 18 points

This year LA leads the division with 20 points. The key for the Oilers if they have any chance is that there schedule has been about as challenging for their team's make up as it could be so far while last year the first 20 games was by far the softest of the season.

Time is definitely getting short for them to make any sort of noise but if they could go on even a short run the situation could change fast. The real question is: Do they have it in them to make that run?

 

[Xelebes]

Nah, let's win it. Then we can pick Matthews, the NHL will have a serious nuclear meltdown, Bettman goes to Obama and calls a DEFCON 5 and fires all nukes creating a Nuclear Fallout and thus ends civilization as we know it. We can call it "Fallout: NHL Style"

Huh, I got a hockey stick from a raider.

 

[MessierII]

Our division has crapped the bed so we actually have a good of keeping competitive. We do need a run soon though.

 

[McXLNC97]

If it wasn't for a screw up by the war room and a couple of late game blunders by Talbot, the Oilers would actually have a point in every divisional game except for the one against Arizona. The key for them will be to gain the points in the division since they were so horrible last year.

 

[IV XIV XCI]

The team has shown a lot of fight. Lots of comebacks from 2 goals down.
That's not a good habit but they gave up in those games in the past.

Need to put together a small win streak and the vantage point changes.

 

[The Joker*]

This is why I bought the month-to-month nhl gamecenter. I wasn't expecting to still be interested in watching by the new year

Lol. That's what I did too. Figured by the end of the second month I could cancel it and save myself $140. It's looking like that will be true.