The Edmonton Oilers and Math

[stompinstoms]

It pains me that I had to write this today, but I did. It's time.

Here's some simple math, and the fact that the Oilers have pretty much played their last meaningful game of the season:

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/11/the-edmonton-oilers-and-some-cold-hard-math/

Not that we were expecting playoffs this year, but I think we were all hoping for meaningful games in March.

Click to read more...

 

[Paralyzer]

Two of the worst past times for me as of late together. Has hell froze over?

I think a lot of us knew this would happen and very few knew it was the players this time around if things don't turn around beginning of the season.

 

[McShogun99]

At least the Pacific division is so bad that we have a shot at finishing top 3 in the division. 7 points out of top 3 and 8 points out of the division lead with 65 games to go isn't that bad. 6 points out of the last wild card spot. If this team can have a .500 November then the schedule gets much better. The problem is that they have to climb over 5 teams with 2 of those teams being Chicago and Anaheim.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

We all hated the guy that wrote the article saying the Oilers were done as soon as McDavid went down, but he was right. I don't think anyone really thought the Oilers had any shot at the playoffs this year. This year is about improvement and sorting out whether to hang on to guys like Talbot and Schultz, and purging deadweight sucking up cap space like Purcell, Nikitin, and Scrivens.

At this point all in hoping for is not finishing with a top 5 pick.

 

[stompinstoms]

We all hated the guy that wrote the article saying the Oilers were done as soon as McDavid went down, but he was right. I don't think anyone really thought the Oilers had any shot at the playoffs this year. This year is about improvement and sorting out whether to hang on to guys like Talbot and Schultz, and purging deadweight sucking up cap space like Purcell, Nikitin, and Scrivens.

At this point all in hoping for is not finishing with a top 5 pick.

I know, right? Like, it would actually be humiliating if the Oilers won the lottery again. We actually have very little need for Auston Matthews, haha.

 

[Paralyzer]

I know, right? Like, it would actually be humiliating if the Oilers won the lottery again. We actually have very little need for Auston Matthews, haha.

Nah, let's win it. Then we can pick Matthews, the NHL will have a serious nuclear meltdown, Bettman goes to Obama and calls a DEFCON 5 and fires all nukes creating a Nuclear Fallout and thus ends civilization as we know it. We can call it "Fallout: NHL Style"

 

[Dorian2]

We all hated the guy that wrote the article saying the Oilers were done as soon as McDavid went down, but he was right. I don't think anyone really thought the Oilers had any shot at the playoffs this year. This year is about improvement and sorting out whether to hang on to guys like Talbot and Schultz, and purging deadweight sucking up cap space like Purcell, Nikitin, and Scrivens.

At this point all in hoping for is not finishing with a top 5 pick.

Coupled with purging the dead weight that signed this dead weight.

I think I'm already pretty much done with this team. I have better things to do with my time.

 

[shoop]

The article, and the article it links to, mentions goalies have a weaker save percentages on the second game of a back-to-back.

Is the record significantly different than for all teams playing back-to-back? i.e. Do teams have higher save percentages playing back-to-back when they start different goalies in the two games?

I'm wondering how much of the impact on save percentage is due to the goalie or the team overall being tired.

 

[Beerfish]

We all hated the guy that wrote the article saying the Oilers were done as soon as McDavid went down, but he was right. I don't think anyone really thought the Oilers had any shot at the playoffs this year. This year is about improvement and sorting out whether to hang on to guys like Talbot and Schultz, and purging deadweight sucking up cap space like Purcell, Nikitin, and Scrivens.

At this point all in hoping for is not finishing with a top 5 pick.

I am really starting to detest this 'we never had a shot at the playoffs' theme year after year after year. Meanwhile each year two or three teams with less talent, more injuries more difficulties make the playoffs. This team and fan base should have totally been expecting to be fighting hard for a spot down to the last week at the very least even without mcdavid.

The franchise still stinks and needs to be blown apart totally. The Halls, RNH's Eberles, Yaks have all totally proven they can't play well long enough or sustained enough to get it done. They take turns playing well and being pedestrians and at the end of the year you look and say, hey the top guys didn't have a bad year.

Just a stinky awful team for the amount of prospective talent they have. The excuse jar is empty.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Nah, let's win it. Then we can pick Matthews, the NHL will have a serious nuclear meltdown, Bettman goes to Obama and calls a DEFCON 5 and fires all nukes creating a Nuclear Fallout and thus ends civilization as we know it. We can call it "Fallout: NHL Style"

I think the Oilers winning the lottery again would be enough for HF to crash permanently

Trading down for Chychrun would be the only reasonable move.

 

[Oi'll say!]

The Oilers are 8 points out of a playoff spot with 65 games left. It's not actually that big of a deal considering that they just played their first 17 post-eakins games.

 

[stompinstoms]

The article, and the article it links to, mentions goalies have a weaker save percentages on the second game of a back-to-back.

Is the record significantly different than for all teams playing back-to-back? i.e. Do teams have higher save percentages playing back-to-back when they start different goalies in the two games?

I'm wondering how much of the impact on save percentage is due to the goalie or the team overall being tired.

That's an interesting point... The data I linked to within the article does only show the stats specific to goalies.

Either way, I would still say there's likely a distinct advantage to starting your rested goalie, simply based on the fact that he's rested.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I am really starting to detest this 'we never had a shot at the playoffs' theme year after year after year. Meanwhile each year two or three teams with less talent, more injuries more difficulties make the playoffs. This team and fan base should have totally been expecting to be fighting hard for a spot down to the last week at the very least even without mcdavid.

The franchise still stinks and needs to be blown apart totally. The Halls, RNH's Eberles, Yaks have all totally proven they can't play well long enough or sustained enough to get it done. They take turns playing well and being pedestrians and at the end of the year you look and say, hey the top guys didn't have a bad year.

Just a stinky awful team for the amount of prospective talent they have. The excuse jar is empty.

The Oilers spend all their luck at the lottery so they don't have a shred of it when the season starts.

 

[stompinstoms]

The Oilers are 8 points out of a playoff spot with 65 games left. It's not actually that big of a deal considering that they just played their first 17 post-eakins games.

Well, first off, I'd say 8 points after 17 games is a huge gap. Extrapolate it over a season, and the Oilers miss the playoffs by 40 points.

Also, this is not our first 17 Eakins-less games. Todd Nelson coached more than half the season last year.

It's all bad. No sugar-coating this.

 

[McRpro]

I've checked out already. Pretty sad really. Haven't watched the last two games and have no idea when they next play or what their schedule is the next week or so. I'm so disheartened that my Oilers fandom has come to this. I hate this team!

 

[Nevins]

How many 2e round((inclu 3e,4e,5e,etc..) Oilers draft picks players are now playing with the team?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

How many 2e round((inclu 3e,4e,5e,etc..) Oilers draft picks players are now playing with the team?

Our own? Two that I can think of - Lander, 2nd rounder, and Davidson, 6th rounder. Slepyshev is in and out but was a 3rd rounder.

AKA - no one significant.

Our scouting was putrid for the longest time and incapable of finding anyone outside of the first round.

 

[stompinstoms]

Our own? Two that I can think of - Lander, 2nd rounder, and Davidson, 6th rounder. Slepyshev is in and out but was a 3rd rounder.

AKA - no one significant.

Our scouting was putrid for the longest time and incapable of finding anyone outside of the first round.

Yes, the scouting has been bad. I would argue the development strategies have been even worse.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Yes, the scouting has been bad. I would argue the development strategies have been even worse.

indeed.

like just finding out now that davidson even has a slapshot. (for me at least)

did he ever get powerplay time in the ahl? it wouldn't surprise me if he did not....but i have no idea.

Or even worse is guys who weren't given any sort of plan/opportunity; hartikainen, rajala, reider, zharkov, maybe belov....maybe marincin...petry..

add to that the failed top 90 picks; gagner, hesketh, abney, schremp, maybe musil, martindale, perhonen, ewanyk...maybe roy, maybe hamilton and pitlick....dee, tesliuk, paukavich, chorney, syvret, zhukov, stortini, macDonald, jacques, pouliot etc.

the organization has really been total clown shoes over the past decade.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

This is why I bought the month-to-month nhl gamecenter. I wasn't expecting to still be interested in watching by the new year

 

[shoop]

That's an interesting point... The data I linked to within the article does only show the stats specific to goalies.

Either way, I would still say there's likely a distinct advantage to starting your rested goalie, simply based on the fact that he's rested.

Possibly. Need to see the numbers to know for sure.

If most teams have a clear number one goalie then the question becomes is your rested backup an upgrade, for one game, over your tired starter?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

indeed.

like just finding out now that davidson even has a slapshot. (for me at least)

did he ever get powerplay time in the ahl? it wouldn't surprise me if he did not....but i have no idea.

Or even worse is guys who weren't given any sort of plan/opportunity; hartikainen, rajala, reider, zharkov, maybe belov....maybe marincin...petry..

add to that the failed top 90 picks; gagner, hesketh, abney, schremp, maybe musil, martindale, perhonen, ewanyk...maybe roy, maybe hamilton and pitlick....dee, tesliuk, paukavich, chorney, syvret, zhukov, stortini, macDonald, jacques, pouliot etc.

the organization has really been total clown shoes over the past decade.

Musil, Moroz, and Abney were almost unforgivably bad picks.

 

[BlackDogg]

Right now, I'm just hoping the Oilers don't finish dead last overall first and foremost - Edmonton will never ever hear the end of it if they do. I didn't believe they would make any playoffs with McDavid this year, but assumed they would be at least out of the bottom half dozen at least.

 

[nexttothemoon]

The Oilers are by far the most consistently unsurprising team in the NHL.

Every single season they are reliably mediocre from the outset and show very few signs of rising above that ceiling of mediocrity.

We all KNEW this wasn't a playoff team and sure enough they give no signs that they are a playoff team.

It's disappointing that they are so reliable in that aspect. For even 1 season it would be nice to have some frivolous hope beyond the pre-season that they could surprise and at least have an outside shot at a wildcard spot... not even a "real chance" at one... just an outside shot... but they can't even really rise to that level of false hope.

Oh well... I'll still watch from time to time but I have to admit without McDavid in the lineup, the draw to watch this team flounder their way to an inevitable 10th straight season of ineptitude certainly has less and less appeal as the season winds down.

Is it summer yet? Just... 7 more months.

 

[BlackDogg]

The Oilers are by far the most consistently unsurprising team in the NHL.

Every single season they are reliably mediocre from the outset and show very few signs of rising above that ceiling of mediocrity.

We all KNEW this wasn't a playoff team and sure enough they give no signs that they are a playoff team.

It's disappointing that they are so reliable in that aspect. For even 1 season it would be nice to have some frivolous hope beyond the pre-season that they could surprise and at least have an outside shot at a wildcard spot... not even a "real chance" at one... just an outside shot... but they can't even really rise to that level of false hope.

Oh well... I'll still watch from time to time but I have to admit without McDavid in the lineup, the draw to watch this team flounder their way to an inevitable 10th straight season of ineptitude certainly has less and less appeal as the season winds down.

Is it summer yet? Just... 7 more months.

I just cannot see this tire fire continuing this year without the new management taking drastic measures, starting as soon as feasible. TEN years is just absolutely brutal and not acceptable to any fans. One thing I can't believe is that they are keeping the current regime around now. However I'm assuming it was maybe part of the deal and maybe to keep continuity and then they'll be gone.

If they try and keep this core together and it doesn't work (as they don't have enough experience), then it could be 4-5 more years down the tube. Obviously, the defensive system is an issue, so it it doesn't improve beyond one game winning streaks in the next short while BLOW IT UP!