Classic Devil
Spirit of 1988
Before the criticism - this doesn't mean that I think the Devils are cup contenders right now, because as things stand we're not. There are too many questionmarks throughout the lineup - how will the unproven forwards perform? How will the defense progress? Will we get goaltending this year?
Rather, I think our fanbase has been under the impression that the Devils are looking to create something special a few years from now, and I think this is now the wrong perspective. The Devils are in an ideal state to make a run at the cup in the next 3 years (namely, the 3 years of Hughes' ELC), and after those three years have passed I think our window is likely to shrink.
There are three reasons for this:
(1) Upcoming RFA / UFA contracts. Between Hischier, Hall (if he stays), Hughes, Palmieri, Gusev, and Coleman we have a bunch of players who are going to (potentially) be in line for raises in the next few years. It is not outside the realm of possibility for us to end up as bogged down with big contracts as the Oilers are right now inside of a 2 year window, which means the team's #1 advantage - namely cap space - is likely to evaporate. Once that happens it becomes much more difficult for the team to add big name players. When Hughes comes up for a contract I think we can assume he's going to be demanding a minimum of $12M/year (if he's not, we've got other problems), potentially significantly more depending on the nature of the league's salary structure. Never again (in this era of the Devils) will we enjoy the cap flexibility we have had the last few seasons once we pay Hischier and Hughes. Short term contracts to maximize the roster now are therefore in order (see: Gusev, Simmonds). (I'm not entirely sure extending Hall is even in our best interest, given this.)
(2) Upcoming player departures: this team now has a lot of important players who will be hitting UFA in the next few years. Subban, Hall, Gusev, Palmieri, Coleman, Zajac (admittedly probably aging out of the team anyway) will all have their contracts up. Now this is not necessarily all bad - this means we'll have salary flexibility to at least address problem (1), and our prospect pool is good enough that we should be able to replace at least the forwards from within - but there are going to be some big holes that this team needs to fill that may not be so easy to fill. This compounds with (3).
(3) Assets. The Devils have now taken what was a huge asset they collected during the rebuild during shrewd trades - namely their cupboard of draft picks - and used or sold them all and then some. The Gusev trade is probably the last of the top-6 winger for a 2nd and 3rd round pick in the offseason trade Shero's going to be able to pull off, because we no longer have much in the way of those 2nd and 3rd round picks. This means in a few years we may well find ourselves lacking the assets to pull off a Subban trade or a Gusev trade or a Palmieri trade. We're not going to be in a position to sell off players at the deadline for picks, the way we sold Stempniak (all praise be to Shero). This means our overall roster acquisition flexibility declines over time, and 3 years from now we may find ourselves in a position of having to choose between Lou-style treading water or another minor rebuild.
(Of course, we can address this concern by good prospect development. If Boqvist, Smith, Talvitie, Studenic, and Okhotyuk all pan out we'll be fine. It's hard to assume this will be the case, however.)
What this all means is that we're not building for tomorrow anymore. We're all in. Hughes' ELC, what's left of Hischier's ELC, and Hall's contract means that we should be aiming for competing for the Stanley Cup not "in a few years", but right now, and I think the management agrees with me given the moves we've made. This offseason marks a transformation from rebuilding team to aspiring competitor, and our mindset should change to reflect that.
Rather, I think our fanbase has been under the impression that the Devils are looking to create something special a few years from now, and I think this is now the wrong perspective. The Devils are in an ideal state to make a run at the cup in the next 3 years (namely, the 3 years of Hughes' ELC), and after those three years have passed I think our window is likely to shrink.
There are three reasons for this:
(1) Upcoming RFA / UFA contracts. Between Hischier, Hall (if he stays), Hughes, Palmieri, Gusev, and Coleman we have a bunch of players who are going to (potentially) be in line for raises in the next few years. It is not outside the realm of possibility for us to end up as bogged down with big contracts as the Oilers are right now inside of a 2 year window, which means the team's #1 advantage - namely cap space - is likely to evaporate. Once that happens it becomes much more difficult for the team to add big name players. When Hughes comes up for a contract I think we can assume he's going to be demanding a minimum of $12M/year (if he's not, we've got other problems), potentially significantly more depending on the nature of the league's salary structure. Never again (in this era of the Devils) will we enjoy the cap flexibility we have had the last few seasons once we pay Hischier and Hughes. Short term contracts to maximize the roster now are therefore in order (see: Gusev, Simmonds). (I'm not entirely sure extending Hall is even in our best interest, given this.)
(2) Upcoming player departures: this team now has a lot of important players who will be hitting UFA in the next few years. Subban, Hall, Gusev, Palmieri, Coleman, Zajac (admittedly probably aging out of the team anyway) will all have their contracts up. Now this is not necessarily all bad - this means we'll have salary flexibility to at least address problem (1), and our prospect pool is good enough that we should be able to replace at least the forwards from within - but there are going to be some big holes that this team needs to fill that may not be so easy to fill. This compounds with (3).
(3) Assets. The Devils have now taken what was a huge asset they collected during the rebuild during shrewd trades - namely their cupboard of draft picks - and used or sold them all and then some. The Gusev trade is probably the last of the top-6 winger for a 2nd and 3rd round pick in the offseason trade Shero's going to be able to pull off, because we no longer have much in the way of those 2nd and 3rd round picks. This means in a few years we may well find ourselves lacking the assets to pull off a Subban trade or a Gusev trade or a Palmieri trade. We're not going to be in a position to sell off players at the deadline for picks, the way we sold Stempniak (all praise be to Shero). This means our overall roster acquisition flexibility declines over time, and 3 years from now we may find ourselves in a position of having to choose between Lou-style treading water or another minor rebuild.
(Of course, we can address this concern by good prospect development. If Boqvist, Smith, Talvitie, Studenic, and Okhotyuk all pan out we'll be fine. It's hard to assume this will be the case, however.)
What this all means is that we're not building for tomorrow anymore. We're all in. Hughes' ELC, what's left of Hischier's ELC, and Hall's contract means that we should be aiming for competing for the Stanley Cup not "in a few years", but right now, and I think the management agrees with me given the moves we've made. This offseason marks a transformation from rebuilding team to aspiring competitor, and our mindset should change to reflect that.
Last edited:
