The Carey Price aka God discussion thread
- Thread starter ottawa
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Probably.
I am definitely not running a bot on a remote desktop as we speak. definitely not.
TB seems to have more of them, or just people who run more at the same time, because they are getting an insane amount of votes every minute
looks like 25-30 votes for Price every refresh, and 50+ for Nyquist
Detroit botting hard AF! Price was leading by 20,000+ votes last night, when I woke up, Nyquist was leading by 2k. Also if you take a lookg Nyquist's votes go up by crazy amounts like 50-100 every second for 10 minutes, then it slows down to 1-5 a second for 10 minutes, then peaks again. HEAVY BOTTING! Don't give up though, keep voting for Price!
Athletique_Canadien
Registered User
I'll vote. Why not? It remains to be seen if he's the best of the 2005 draft class. Yes Sid, I'm talking to you 
LaP
Registered User
Probably Ottawa.
As much as i hate Boston and its fans they are not even close to Ottawa. At least Bostons fans are despicable when the team is good only. They are not like Ottawas fans thinking they have a good team when their team in reality ***** ***.
guys, in order to fight back against the anti-habs botting, we gonna need to set up a network of habs fan computers, that could be utilized as bots when the members are away. They think they are smart with their 50 votes per second, let's see what they will say when we fight back with thousands every second.
Lafleurs Guy
Guuuuuuuy!
- Jul 20, 2007
- 75,326
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I want Carey to win but I have absolutely no problem with Nyquist winning this. That play was absolutely stupid good.
If we lose, it's because of money and ethnic bots!!
Wow you deserve more recognition for this one.
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The Carey Price Effect
During the course of the 2014-15 regular season and playoffs, you'd so often hear in the media and whatnot, that the Montreal Canadiens are a defensive team. They don't score often, and they get scored on even less. For most people, the assumption was that it's because they're a defensive team, they're like that by design. Couldn't be further from the truth. Very little that I saw this season suggested any kind of defensive proficiency. This was not a defensive team, this was a goaltending team the likes we haven't seen Dominic Hasek's Buffalo Sabres of the late 90s. This illusion of defense is common referred to as the Carey Price Effect
Even on these very boards, the concern was always with offense, and it's worth being concerned about, it really was not very good at all. Defense was always secondary, and up until the acquisition of Jeff Petry, it probably shouldn't have been. Bergevin saw the need to improve on defense, and he went out and got a very good defenseman in exchange for picks. Still, there were those that felt those picks should have been used to address what they believed to be the more pressing concern, offense. These people had fallen victim to the Carey Price effect
I'm sure even now there are those that doubt that the defense is as bad as I believe it to be. So, let's look into it.
Above is a pair of hextallies depicting where two different Montreal Canadiens teams allowed shots again (for reference, red is bad). One team finished first in their division, and allowed the lowest goals against average in the league (the team on the right). The other team finished last in the Eastern Conference and got us Alex Galchenyuk (the team on the left). Difference is that one team allows chances from the high slot, the other from right in front. Both are not areas one would expect a defensive team to give up.
If both teams were messes defensively, and had trouble scoring goals, only one thing could be accounting for the difference in result, and that is the man in net. One team had 11-12 Carey Price (.916 sv%), and the other had 14-15 Carey Price (.933 sv%). To give an idea as to just how huge a .017 gap in save percentage can be, with Carey Price's workload, it's equivalent to ~33 goals. The 2014-15 Canadiens allowed 184 goals (when you factor out goals against on account of shootout losses). Add 33 to that, and you get you get 217. The 2011-12 Montreal Canadiens? When you factor out the goals against due to shootout losses, they allowed 219. The difference between those teams defensively was an improved Carey Price, and two goals
It shouldn't be the case if you look at the defense on paper, it's not that bad a group. With a full season of Petry and Beaulieu as the second pairing, I'd imagine things will be a lot better. But, players can only make so much of a difference and sadly, this is almost certainly the worst part of the Carey Price effect. The issue isn't with the players, the issue is behind the bench, particularly in the systems used by Michel Therrien and JJD. He masks issues within that system, he makes them look good, he gets their contracts extended, the systems continue to be used, Price bails them out, and it goes on and on in a loop. From the media, to the fans, to the management team, everyone is affected by the Carey Price effect
Even Price himself.
The whole reason I bring this up now, rather than any other time is because I noticed something interesting while talking to some people who aren't aboard the Price for Hart wagon. People are subjected to this Carey Price effect, they're made to believe that the Montreal Canadiens play a stingy defensive system, and then they use the existence of this "defensive system" as a means to discredit what he has accomplished this season. It doesn't happen so much now, but earlier in the season, you'd see similar things on the main boards in various threads (Is Carey Price Overrated?, Price vs Rinne threads).
Essentially, Carey Price is so good, that he creates an illusion that people use to discredit him.
Carey Price is so good, that he makes himself look not so good
Wild stuff
During the course of the 2014-15 regular season and playoffs, you'd so often hear in the media and whatnot, that the Montreal Canadiens are a defensive team. They don't score often, and they get scored on even less. For most people, the assumption was that it's because they're a defensive team, they're like that by design. Couldn't be further from the truth. Very little that I saw this season suggested any kind of defensive proficiency. This was not a defensive team, this was a goaltending team the likes we haven't seen Dominic Hasek's Buffalo Sabres of the late 90s. This illusion of defense is common referred to as the Carey Price Effect
Even on these very boards, the concern was always with offense, and it's worth being concerned about, it really was not very good at all. Defense was always secondary, and up until the acquisition of Jeff Petry, it probably shouldn't have been. Bergevin saw the need to improve on defense, and he went out and got a very good defenseman in exchange for picks. Still, there were those that felt those picks should have been used to address what they believed to be the more pressing concern, offense. These people had fallen victim to the Carey Price effect
I'm sure even now there are those that doubt that the defense is as bad as I believe it to be. So, let's look into it.
Above is a pair of hextallies depicting where two different Montreal Canadiens teams allowed shots again (for reference, red is bad). One team finished first in their division, and allowed the lowest goals against average in the league (the team on the right). The other team finished last in the Eastern Conference and got us Alex Galchenyuk (the team on the left). Difference is that one team allows chances from the high slot, the other from right in front. Both are not areas one would expect a defensive team to give up.
If both teams were messes defensively, and had trouble scoring goals, only one thing could be accounting for the difference in result, and that is the man in net. One team had 11-12 Carey Price (.916 sv%), and the other had 14-15 Carey Price (.933 sv%). To give an idea as to just how huge a .017 gap in save percentage can be, with Carey Price's workload, it's equivalent to ~33 goals. The 2014-15 Canadiens allowed 184 goals (when you factor out goals against on account of shootout losses). Add 33 to that, and you get you get 217. The 2011-12 Montreal Canadiens? When you factor out the goals against due to shootout losses, they allowed 219. The difference between those teams defensively was an improved Carey Price, and two goals
It shouldn't be the case if you look at the defense on paper, it's not that bad a group. With a full season of Petry and Beaulieu as the second pairing, I'd imagine things will be a lot better. But, players can only make so much of a difference and sadly, this is almost certainly the worst part of the Carey Price effect. The issue isn't with the players, the issue is behind the bench, particularly in the systems used by Michel Therrien and JJD. He masks issues within that system, he makes them look good, he gets their contracts extended, the systems continue to be used, Price bails them out, and it goes on and on in a loop. From the media, to the fans, to the management team, everyone is affected by the Carey Price effect
Even Price himself.
The whole reason I bring this up now, rather than any other time is because I noticed something interesting while talking to some people who aren't aboard the Price for Hart wagon. People are subjected to this Carey Price effect, they're made to believe that the Montreal Canadiens play a stingy defensive system, and then they use the existence of this "defensive system" as a means to discredit what he has accomplished this season. It doesn't happen so much now, but earlier in the season, you'd see similar things on the main boards in various threads (Is Carey Price Overrated?, Price vs Rinne threads).
Essentially, Carey Price is so good, that he creates an illusion that people use to discredit him.
Carey Price is so good, that he makes himself look not so good
Wild stuff
habs03
Subban #Thoroughbred
- Jun 21, 2010
- 5,999
- 141
3 season with these coaching staff and management and all 3 years the team was or was on pace for a 100 point season...
Price is a lock for the Hart and Vezina this year, and no doubt the reason the Habs got ~110 points this year.
With that said, the previous 2 years, Price was not a Hart nor Vezina goalie nominee yet Mtl was ranked 14th in GA against in year 1 and around 8th in GA in year 2.
Its a give or take, maybe the defense and system is at the top defensive because Price made it look better, but its not as bad as some make it seem.
Not going to look for it again but a few weeks ago Elliote Fiedmen quoted an NHL coach saying that MT system has the dmen skating a lot, they play high on the blue line but when teams dump it in, they have extra skating, our dmen were not the best skaters, with now Beaulieu becoming a full timer and Petry locked up, I think they can be more effective in helping Price.
Price is a lock for the Hart and Vezina this year, and no doubt the reason the Habs got ~110 points this year.
With that said, the previous 2 years, Price was not a Hart nor Vezina goalie nominee yet Mtl was ranked 14th in GA against in year 1 and around 8th in GA in year 2.
Its a give or take, maybe the defense and system is at the top defensive because Price made it look better, but its not as bad as some make it seem.
Not going to look for it again but a few weeks ago Elliote Fiedmen quoted an NHL coach saying that MT system has the dmen skating a lot, they play high on the blue line but when teams dump it in, they have extra skating, our dmen were not the best skaters, with now Beaulieu becoming a full timer and Petry locked up, I think they can be more effective in helping Price.
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I have no issue whatsoever with the lockout-shortened season team, I wish they'd go back to playing like that, they were great. Had it not been for been for Craig Anderson, God knows where they would have ended up. Though most people will agree that team didn't play like this team. They were an offense-first team. It was beautiful. iirc they finished top-5 in goal scoring that year. No Carey Price effect needed
2013-14 is when the problems really took form. That year was as bad, or worse than this year. The team had abandoned what had been working for them the year before, and instead adopted a defense-oriented system that was just not working the way it was intended to work. Whether or not he was nominated, Price was a top-goalie (how Bishop got nominated instead is beyond me), he was keeping the team afloat, and had it not been for a sub-par month of January he'd have finished with a .930+ sv%. Here's the hextallies for 2013-14. It's not pretty
Now, I'm not saying that this year's team was bad enough for a top-3 pick (the 2011-12 team that I was comparing them to suffered a far worse fate than they deserved), I'm just saying the success we have had these past 18 months have come as a result of one man. Goaltending aside, it's not the kind of team that should be winning their division, it's not the type of team that should be allowing the fewest goals against, it's a team that should be fighting tooth-and-nail for one of the wild card playoff spots. Things are looking up. A full-year of Petry-Beaulieu will be great, gives us two competent pairings rather than one. I expect improvement in 2015-16, but if not it's gonna be another stressful year of relying on Price
I take exception to basing your claim off a still graph, not saying it's wrong, but this still doesn't really address shot quality, it's a piece of it, we have no idea if Carey is moving laterally or already in position for any of these shots etc.
I do agree that he most certainly masks alot of issues, but so does any teams top player.
I do agree that he most certainly masks alot of issues, but so does any teams top player.
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Claim isn't really based off a graph. Claim is based on the eye test, the graphs, and seemingly every other piece of data I can find just so happens to support that eye test.
Where's the other data? You've used two graphs to support your claim. where's the rest of this data?
2014-2015: X (top 3) in voting
2013-2014: 4th in voting
2012-2013: 10th in voting
He was always voted top10 in the NHL with MT on board.
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I prefer to use the hextallies, because they're just better than using raw possession numbers because you get a visual representation of where all the shots are coming from, as opposed to just how many. If you do just want raw numbers they're all readily available on sites like stats.hockeyanalysis.com, if that's your thing. As far as corsi-against goes, not much teams worse than the Habs. Buffalo, Calgary, Toronto, Colorado, Arizona. Good group to be mixed in with.
Honestly, it'd be a task to twist any of the numbers you find in a way that makes the Habs defensive situation look good
Hope Of Glory
Registered User
Very interesting thread.
Those hextallies show there are real problems with our defense. We CAN'T give up that many shots in the high slots on a regular basis, especially not considering that we are one of the team that allows the most shot every game. Yes, I know, we have Price so some will say "it's not that big of a deal, look at where we finished in the last years". Which I find stupid since having a great goaltender is a bad excuse to play poorly in the defensive zone. It's not like our defense is bad either, we have pretty solid group even more now that we locked up Petry long term.
There's one way I could live we allowing so many dangerous shots: if we were playing in way that allowed a lot more creativity and offense, thus probably leading to more turnover. But right now, we're really poor defensively on all level (except) Price AND we are garbage offensively. It shouldn't happen. Our forwards aren't an exceptionnal group, obviously, but we still did much better 2 years ago with roughly the same guys. I don't think we have the guys to be a top 5 offensive team but there's no way we should be amongst the worst team either while we're not even playing decent defensive hockey.
Maybe I'm wrong and other top defensive teams have roughly the same statistics in those metrics? Ok, let's look.
Well, I think it's pretty clear now, at least to me. We do rely way too much on our goaltenders. That's pretty much what we see at first when we look at those numbers (that and the fact that L.A.'s number were insane). I even included the stats for offensive teams like Tampa and Pittsburgh, both of them allowing a lot dangerous than us despite playing a more "risky" way. Same for a pretty average New Jersey defense (and team as a whole) who apparently managed to keep the dangerous shots low.
TL;DR: We really way too much on Price despite being a "defensive" team, much, much more than other teams. And despite that, we still generate one of the worst offensive output in the league.
Those hextallies show there are real problems with our defense. We CAN'T give up that many shots in the high slots on a regular basis, especially not considering that we are one of the team that allows the most shot every game. Yes, I know, we have Price so some will say "it's not that big of a deal, look at where we finished in the last years". Which I find stupid since having a great goaltender is a bad excuse to play poorly in the defensive zone. It's not like our defense is bad either, we have pretty solid group even more now that we locked up Petry long term.
There's one way I could live we allowing so many dangerous shots: if we were playing in way that allowed a lot more creativity and offense, thus probably leading to more turnover. But right now, we're really poor defensively on all level (except) Price AND we are garbage offensively. It shouldn't happen. Our forwards aren't an exceptionnal group, obviously, but we still did much better 2 years ago with roughly the same guys. I don't think we have the guys to be a top 5 offensive team but there's no way we should be amongst the worst team either while we're not even playing decent defensive hockey.
Maybe I'm wrong and other top defensive teams have roughly the same statistics in those metrics? Ok, let's look.
Code:
Team Outside HighSlot LowSlot
MTL 1,08 1,16 1,1
CHI 0,948 0,931 1,02
NYR 1,11 0,923 0,948
STL 0,92 0,988 0,9
MIN 0,989 0,947 0,939
WSH 0,974 0,916 1,03
LAK 0,877 0,876 0,866
TBL 0,83 0,944 1,02
PIT 0,904 0,919 0,936
NJD 0,936 0,937 0,903Well, I think it's pretty clear now, at least to me. We do rely way too much on our goaltenders. That's pretty much what we see at first when we look at those numbers (that and the fact that L.A.'s number were insane). I even included the stats for offensive teams like Tampa and Pittsburgh, both of them allowing a lot dangerous than us despite playing a more "risky" way. Same for a pretty average New Jersey defense (and team as a whole) who apparently managed to keep the dangerous shots low.
TL;DR: We really way too much on Price despite being a "defensive" team, much, much more than other teams. And despite that, we still generate one of the worst offensive output in the league.
RealityBytes
Trash Remover
- Feb 11, 2013
- 2,959
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So basically, if we can only win with Price, that would mean our eggs are all in one basket. That's not good and a weakness for sure.
If Price gets permanently injured, do we scrap it all and rebuild from scratch?
If Price gets permanently injured, do we scrap it all and rebuild from scratch?
habs03
Subban #Thoroughbred
- Jun 21, 2010
- 5,999
- 141
I have no issue whatsoever with the lockout-shortened season team, I wish they'd go back to playing like that, they were great. Had it not been for been for Craig Anderson, God knows where they would have ended up. Though most people will agree that team didn't play like this team. They were an offense-first team. It was beautiful. iirc they finished top-5 in goal scoring that year. No Carey Price effect needed
2013-14 is when the problems really took form. That year was as bad, or worse than this year. The team had abandoned what had been working for them the year before, and instead adopted a defense-oriented system that was just not working the way it was intended to work. Whether or not he was nominated, Price was a top-goalie (how Bishop got nominated instead is beyond me), he was keeping the team afloat, and had it not been for a sub-par month of January he'd have finished with a .930+ sv%. Here's the hextallies for 2013-14. It's not pretty
Now, I'm not saying that this year's team was bad enough for a top-3 pick (the 2011-12 team that I was comparing them to suffered a far worse fate than they deserved), I'm just saying the success we have had these past 18 months have come as a result of one man. Goaltending aside, it's not the kind of team that should be winning their division, it's not the type of team that should be allowing the fewest goals against, it's a team that should be fighting tooth-and-nail for one of the wild card playoff spots. Things are looking up. A full-year of Petry-Beaulieu will be great, gives us two competent pairings rather than one. I expect improvement in 2015-16, but if not it's gonna be another stressful year of relying on Price
The first season had a good start, but not sure if people remember but when things got serious at the end of the year and you were playing teams fighting for playoffs spots, Mtl did not do so well.
While Anderson was great for the Sens, Price was pretty bad at the other side, maybe that open hockey was not suited for me, because I remember at the end of the year he made some comments that raised some eyebrows, how he couldn't go shopping anymore, normally I wouldn't take comments like that too serious, but when the GM says after he will have a seat down with the player about those comments its gonna be something.
Sure but again like I said the team has done well even without a Vezina winning and Hart winning like season from their goalie..
If Price gets injured for any prolonged period, we are as good as a Jr team...........we have shown nothing with this coaching staff, and team in front of Price, that we would even make the playoffs.............Carey is Da System...
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