The Biggest problem with this team

[MinimaMoralia]

Nurse and Russell have to be one of the very worst pairings in the entire league. Neither has a clue of what to do with the puck or gown to read off each other.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The team has a low panic threshold, there is no doubt about that. Derived from players being asked to play above pay grade in part, but its also from the lack of in game situation to better mentally handle the moment. This team has had very little experience in holding 1 goal leads as the clock is winding down. Once a team has that ability, via talent upgrade and the improved situational awareness that comes from repetitive positive experience (ie Confidence), they will become better at performing the task.

On the flip side, we have been scored on so many times in the first minute or first shot of the game and in the final minute of a period that players may have come to subconsciously expect the worst to happen, thus driving the panic threshold through the roof.

In 2016-17 we won many games in the last 1/4 of the season by 1 goal and became quite adept at holding those leads. The team regressed in that ability last year by not being in those situations and were more often the team chasing the game in the final minute, and it has carried over to this year.

As we infill talent gaps and gain confidence , I would anticipate the last minute panic threshold to decrease and allow us fans to breathe somewhat easier.

ANY team that cannot score goals has a panic threshold. Because the probability is strong of not being able to get goals back.

This whole thread is based on upside down logic which is easily to dispel.

For instance, as almost anybody realizes the Oilers problem IS scoring goals. We're 28 in goals scored. That's a fact.

Conversely we're tied in 20th in GA, not good either, but in GA we're in middle of pack. In GF, were among the worst scoring clubs and DESPITE having McDavid and Draisaitl.

The whole ball game here, and why everything so easily falls apart, is that one goal is often fatal. EVERY team in the league gives up bad goals. Strong teams have the scoring ability to overcome that.

The BIGGEST problem the Oilers may have is that once an opponent gets a lead all they have to do is watch out for one line. Cover that and they got a W.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The OP for instance, could have looked at actual team statistics to flesh out a theory of how things are going wrong for the club.

Like the Score first/SCore last stat. When the Oilers score first they are .545% Pretty much an expected stat for a team well out of the playoffs. Conversely we're .385 in games other clubs have scored first. One of the difficulties is we give up the goal a lot more than we get it this year and last. Theres been some improvement this season but we're still chasing most games. Its hard to do that in the NHL.

In fact even a dynastic Pittsburgh Penguins team had a low win % if allowing the first goal. Only .375.

If anything is salient, and not well understood, apparently, is that scoring first goal has never been more important. So that arguable results in games are decided earlier, more often than we might think. Well, not really decided, but statistically speaking odds of winning for most clubs are poor when allowing the first goal.

 

[GMofOilers]

Cam Talbot aka goaltending for the last 1.3 seasons.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I disagree completely that puck management is a problem.

Seriously the problem with this team is very simple: many of our players are being relied on to play above their absolute abilities.

Our defensemen could all use a shift downward in the lineup. Klefbom is a 2D but he's relied on like a 1D, Larsson is a 3D/4D but relied on as a 2D. Nurse and Russell are 4D/5D abut are our 2nd pairing.

Our forward group faces the same problem, but is less pronounced because there's 3 forwards to cover for each other. Ideally guys like Kassian and Brodziak should never be getting above 4th line ice time. Khaira should be healthy scratched and used as a 13th forward. Caggiula and Chiasson should be secondary depth scoring options instead of being relied on as top 6 wingers night in night out. Puljujarvi should be perfecting his game and dominating the AHL like Nylander was doing, but instead he's also up here trying to learn on the fly.

No team in this league plays mistake free hockey 60 minutes a game for 82 games. Mistakes happen. You just need to capitalize on the opponents mistakes while preventing goals from your own mistakes, to do that you need better players and better matchups.

This post for the Win. You dispelled nearly every fallacy in the thread, I'm just adding on.

The reality is, as you mention, is every team makes mistakes, makes them often enough, and at critical moments. As oilers fans we tend to notice more when its happening to our club. This is just an example of specific attending distortion.

The Op is so easily dispelled its laughable. For instance if the Oilers are getting owned late or in critical moments in games (whatever that means because its a circular tautology) it should be reflected in goals per period. Except it isn't If anything the Oilers are pretty good at limiting 3rd period and OT goals. The REALITY is we score quite a few more third period goals and OT goals than we allow.

We're actually BETTER than average late in games. That's inconvenient to the OP's unsubstantiated theory.

I'll provide a hint as well, so that the OP can rework their theory. The Oilers are actually worst in 2nd periods of games. Not that they are throwing games away late.

In anycase good lineups can outscore their mistakes. The Oilers can't. Its incredible that the logic that the Oilers are a poor scoring team, and that its the most salient variable, escapes the OP.

 

[Mr Positive]

Offense from the defense. Look at the numbers. They are alarming.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Cam Talbot aka goaltending for the last 1.3 seasons.

Weird how the team wasn't good last year when he was hurt. Hmm.

 

[LTIR]

Biggest issue = no scoring option on the blueline.
We have 7 minute munching Dmen none of which is a scoring threat nor a good puck mover.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The biggest problem with this franchise is they're chasing ideals that simply don't gel with today's NHL and always overshooting what they actually need. It's clear Chiarelli wanted to build a team to compete in the West which years ago was a big, bruising conference. Players like Lucic, Kassian, et al would've fit the mold a few years ago, but the game of hockey has gone back to speed and skill. Kassian at least has some wheels but Lucic still can't score to save his life and often the hope is that he simply doesn't get scored on.

Realizing the direction the NHL is going in, they draft a small winger ala Johnny Gaudreau and hope he can make an immediate impact, which he did not. These kinds of players take years to bulk up and adjust to the NHL level. I don't have any issue with the Oilers drafting this player, but it represents a sudden swerve in the opposite direction. Overcorrecting as it were.

The fatal mistake the Oilers make year after year is thrusting unproven players into spots they're not ready to take. They just assumed that JP would make an immediate impact, and KY and Bouchard. They also assumed that Benning could play top 4 minutes (again) before it blew up in their faces. McLellan for all his faults forced Chiarelli send Bouchard down and be patient with this player. There is a distinct air of cowardice in the front office when they continue to trot out rookies and tweeners in roles they simply cannot handle and then move the players when they don't pan out. Strome is a prime example of this. I didn't like the guy but he was at least pretty decent defensively but rather than be patient with him (or admit the trade in the first place was a mistake), they send him away and bring in a worse player.

The fact that we have 3 really good centers and are forced to play at least 1 on the wing at all times is really stupid. I understand why it's done but it really highlights the lack of depth on this team. This is a mediocre (at best) cap strapped team with depth at a single position and holes basically everywhere else in the lineup. The Oilers have failed to build around a player that any team (save maybe Pittsburgh) would give both of their nuts for. McDavid is good, scary good... And he excels in spite of the team around him. He should be given a medal or made a knight or something.

If the Oilers have a vision I'm honestly not sure what it is. They've painted themselves into a corner and I really wouldn't go ahead with most of the front office even if they do make the playoffs. There's been too many mistakes and too many bad habits both on and off the ice that just haven't changed. The Oilers need to stop being lazy and doing the easy thing and make some hard decisions and show their fans they're serious about winning, because I'm not convinced at all that they are.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

A few issues:

1. Not enough scoring behind McDrai. Pretty self-explanatory.

2. Our breakout and zone entries. We have McDavid and Draisaitl, one man breakout machines. They are way more efficient at entering the zone than some long, low percentage pass from a Dman that nearly always comes back for icing. If we give the puck to McDavid or Draisaitl with speed, we can have much cleaner and more efficient zone entries. Puljujarvi and Nuge are also pretty good at that.

3. Our roster just isn't that good. Once (if?) some of Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Benson, Jones, Bear, and Bouchard pan out, we'll have a lot more skill, but behind our top 3 forwards, we have no offensively skilled players. Forward or defense.

 

[syz]

Every forward on this team would score more if the defense was able to move the puck well and make plays in the offensive zone. I'm not saying the forwards are good, but the deck is stacked against them nonetheless.

Look at last night's game, even. Even Lucic/Kassian/Brodziak had a few shifts of good work in the offensive zone, but the play evaporated as soon as they gave the puck to a defenseman.

Even when the Oilers cycle well it turns into nothing as soon as the puck gets back to the point, and any transition game only ever happens when it's the forwards moving the puck out of the defensive zone.

 

[oobga]

This team definitely plays like a bunch of idiots in certain situations. Playing too scared, cheating for D which usually snowballs into curling up into a ball and then a full panic mode. I was pretty happy to hear Hitch call out some guys on running away from scoring areas too quickly.

I really do hope hitch can get that out of this group, how quickly players can go away from what they normally do to play scared. You do need your goalies putting in solid efforts too. The combination of playing scared and your goalie letting in every half decent chance sends a team on a death spiral. We got to watch that last year.

 

[MaxR11]

The depth of talent may not be great but they are still capable of playing the right way. too often they did not. hopefully the worm turns. many things that plagues the team are mental/compete level/battle level. knowing how to stay in the battle and compete and be smart about it instead of LOOKING like you are battling hard. i can tell you there is absolutely a difference. hopefully hitch can teach them. i remember watching a hitchcock practice when he was with the stars in the late 90s at clare drake prepping for an oilers game. a lot of clever drills and hard battle drills. then i remember watching some of the oilers practices within the last 10 years and it was all flow drills rushing up ice etc. there were no battle or more grinding type drills. and even when there was a semblance of an in tight zone drill the details and intensity of the drills were lacking compared to hitch's battle drills.

ya, this team may or may not have enough depth to be a good team but they can certainly play far better than they did last year and better than they have in the bad stretches this year. some of it is definitely mental.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I thought this deserved its own thread.

IMO the biggest concern with this team isnt a lack of scoring depth on the wing...it isnt Cam Talbot....it isnt the non calls on McDavid...it isnt the lack of a #1 dman.

Its puck/situation management. When I watch this team and the game is winding down into the last couple of minutes of the 3rd in a close game I become a nervous fan. Why...because I know that until the final buzzer that this team can, and usually does, find a way to mismanage the puck and gift the other team an opportunity to score.

This can obviously happen at any time in the game but when the game is on the line this team seems to be really prone. There are so many examples of this over the past couple of years and we only have to go back to the game a few days ago against Anaheim to see the last time this cost them a game.

It almost happened again last night....3 poor (completely avoidable) decisions with approx a minute left.
First Draisaitl (with just over a minute left) skates just outside his own blue line and then tries to put a soft pass across the neutral zone and it gets intercepted. Nothing came of it (no scoring chance) but its exactly the wrong play to make when you are trying to preserve a point. Mistake #1.

Next (about 15 seconds later) Nurse holds onto the puck in his own zone far too long (12 seconds) and then decides that the best option is to try a low percentage pass up the boards which predictably gets called for icing. The Oilers have possession and then give it right back to the opposing team.
Mistake #2.

Now with apporx 10 secs left in the 3rd RNH skates out of his zone and passes the puck to Jesse right at centre ice. All Jesse had to do was get his stick on the pass and get it deep. He inexplicably misses the puck all together (almost like he losses focus because the pass from RNH was fine) and the puck doesnt go deep and gets turned over. Alternatively RNH could have also gained centre ice and then dumped it in deep...that would have also closed out the period.
As it was Dallas gets possession at their blue line and then quickly moves the puck up ice gains the zone (easily) and almost scored the game winning goal with less than 1 second on the clock. Mistake #3.

All 3 of these situations are completely avoidable if the decision making is better.
The fatal flaw with this team the last few years is that this poor decision making is ingrained into this team.
I dont know if its a low panic threshold due to big moment inexperience or that they just havent learned what it takes to win close games but I do know its a massive problem. It started against Anaheim in the playoffs back in 2016 and its been a problem ever since.

Until this gets cleaned up this team will never consistently win to the point of being a playoff threat.
This is a team issue.

So IMO Hitch is the perfect coach to instill the habits (the structure) required to properly close out games.

Its going to take some time though...maybe 10 to 15 games (or more) to start seeing results. So until about mid-late December I am willing to allow this team to figure things out and thats likely going to mean some additional disappointing losses in the interim. Losses I am not going to get too worked up about because this new adherence to structure isnt going to happen overnight.
The road is going to be a little bumpy for a while.

kudos to you for bringing a fresh perspective on some of the Oilers problems instead tired, re-hashed "hurr durr, no depth, no scoring" arguments we've come to expect on this site

I agree the their puck management is atrocious, and it's something that can and should be taught by a competent coach like Hitch

 

[CookiesAndMilk]

What's not wrong with the team- Mcdavid and Draisaitl

FTFY

 

[guymez]

kudos to you for bringing a fresh perspective on some of the Oilers problems instead tired, re-hashed "hurr durr, no depth, no scoring" arguments we've come to expect on this site

I agree the their puck management is atrocious, and it's something that can and should be taught by a competent coach like Hitch

Thanks man.
Its so hard to watch this team continue to struggle with this. Its gone on too long and its been largely ignored. These players need to be held accountable. Sure the roster is flawed but this current group can really improve just by making better decisions and playing smarter.

So I am with you in hoping that Hitch can help straighten this out.

 

[McShogun99]

FTFY

You know we can’t compliment Draisaitl in these parts.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

FTFY

You know we can’t compliment Draisaitl in these parts.

But... 8.5 million for a complimentary winger!

Draisaitl gets so much inexplicable hate around here.

 

[CookiesAndMilk]

You know we can’t compliment Draisaitl in these parts.

But... 8.5 million for a complimentary winger!

Draisaitl gets so much inexplicable hate around here.

Can't understand the hate either. By far my most favourite Oiler. All he lacks is consistency when it comes to putting effort into a game but that will come too since he's still young and he'll learn. He can be such a driver if he wants to.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Can't understand the hate either. By far my most favourite Oiler. All he lacks is consistency when it comes to putting effort into a game but that will come too since he's still young and he'll learn. He can be such a driver if he wants to.

Agreed.

Love your signature btw. Both the quote and the gif.

 

[CookiesAndMilk]

Love your signature btw. Both the quote and the gif.

Thx dude, that's really kind of you probs go out to @NeverForget06 for the quote though.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

The problem is nurse sucks now and that russell....although good....sucks....

...and benning really really sucks.

 

[GodPucker]

This team just doesn't have good enough hockey players who can make good decisions.

How many times will one of our dmen just hang onto the puck forever and then fire a dumb as bricks pass along the wall where we just lose possession?

Most of them just wire the puck off the glass and out and give possession away.

Too much stupidity in too many players.

 

[GodPucker]

Edmonton also has like 6 regulation wins in 24 games...

 

[KCC]

I thought this deserved its own thread.

IMO the biggest concern with this team isnt a lack of scoring depth on the wing...it isnt Cam Talbot....it isnt the non calls on McDavid...it isnt the lack of a #1 dman.

Its puck/situation management. When I watch this team and the game is winding down into the last couple of minutes of the 3rd in a close game I become a nervous fan. Why...because I know that until the final buzzer that this team can, and usually does, find a way to mismanage the puck and gift the other team an opportunity to score.

This can obviously happen at any time in the game but when the game is on the line this team seems to be really prone. There are so many examples of this over the past couple of years and we only have to go back to the game a few days ago against Anaheim to see the last time this cost them a game.

It almost happened again last night....3 poor (completely avoidable) decisions with approx a minute left.
First Draisaitl (with just over a minute left) skates just outside his own blue line and then tries to put a soft pass across the neutral zone and it gets intercepted. Nothing came of it (no scoring chance) but its exactly the wrong play to make when you are trying to preserve a point. Mistake #1.

Next (about 15 seconds later) Nurse holds onto the puck in his own zone far too long (12 seconds) and then decides that the best option is to try a low percentage pass up the boards which predictably gets called for icing. The Oilers have possession and then give it right back to the opposing team.
Mistake #2.

Now with apporx 10 secs left in the 3rd RNH skates out of his zone and passes the puck to Jesse right at centre ice. All Jesse had to do was get his stick on the pass and get it deep. He inexplicably misses the puck all together (almost like he losses focus because the pass from RNH was fine) and the puck doesnt go deep and gets turned over. Alternatively RNH could have also gained centre ice and then dumped it in deep...that would have also closed out the period.
As it was Dallas gets possession at their blue line and then quickly moves the puck up ice gains the zone (easily) and almost scored the game winning goal with less than 1 second on the clock. Mistake #3.

All 3 of these situations are completely avoidable if the decision making is better.
The fatal flaw with this team the last few years is that this poor decision making is ingrained into this team.
I dont know if its a low panic threshold due to big moment inexperience or that they just havent learned what it takes to win close games but I do know its a massive problem. It started against Anaheim in the playoffs back in 2016 and its been a problem ever since.

Until this gets cleaned up this team will never consistently win to the point of being a playoff threat.
This is a team issue.

So IMO Hitch is the perfect coach to instill the habits (the structure) required to properly close out games.

Its going to take some time though...maybe 10 to 15 games (or more) to start seeing results. So until about mid-late December I am willing to allow this team to figure things out and thats likely going to mean some additional disappointing losses in the interim. Losses I am not going to get too worked up about because this new adherence to structure isnt going to happen overnight.
The road is going to be a little bumpy for a while.

Except it IS all of that including what you mentioned -- puck management. It's everything. You name it, it's a massive hole for this team.