Prospect Info: The Big Mac Thread - Part 2 - Extra Bacon Edition

[Habnot]

Runner77 - "How "serious" might a random sampling of these posters be? And, they're not all saying he'll bust, but safe to say there are quite a few who claimed he would and the rest wouldn't exclude it."

There's a difference between calling someone a bust and saying there's a bust factor (or probability he could bust). My comment was made after a game (against Kingston I believe) in which McCarron looked really bad. It was in response to one of Grant's early statement about McCarron when he said there was no bust factor with McCarron. To which I responded at that time that there's quite obviously a bust factor with every player and more importantly with players selected lower than 2 or 3 overall. Saying there was no risk McCarron could bust was a bit too optimistic I thought. After his season in the OHL I thought the chances the greater he could bust but I never he was already a bust.

Some here are just interested in proving they are smarter than everyone else, including the Habs brass. How easy to proclaim prospects busts after one year and then hiding behind a statement that every prospect has a bust factor - no *** Sherlock. Even #1 overall picks can sometimes bust or become role players.

What's harder is to show restraint and patience when evaluating progression and always keeping in mind possible NHL role for a said player. I'm sure the Habs did not draft McCarron thinking he would be a first line player - but I am sure that they saw him as a sure fire NHL player that could contribute.

It's a four line game. On good teams the difference between the first line and 4th line could be 4-5 minutes - everyone is needed and the role players are just as significant in playoffs.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

I haven't had McDonalds in years, now I have a craving for a disgusting Big Mac with extra Bacon . Thanks.

Dont thank me. Thank my wallet.

My new house isnt going to pay itself, you know. I need a lair to raise new little Habs Fanatics

 

[aresknights]

That's not what I said... I said it's good to have a big body in front of the net, but it's even better if he can deflect shots (so good hand-eye) and if he's good at taking the rebounds... So my question stil stands...

I'm asking this, because I don't know if he's good at it, since I don't watch him in the juniors. So perhaps someone who actually watches him play this year could enlighten me on the subject?

Yes he has good hands around the net. Season ticket holder.
His net presence (positioning, focus, battle between the whistles and not after has improved as well)

 

[Runner77]

Some here are just interested in proving they are smarter than everyone else, including the Habs brass. How easy to proclaim prospects busts after one year and then hiding behind a statement that every prospect has a bust factor - no *** Sherlock. Even #1 overall picks can sometimes bust or become role players.

What's harder is to show restraint and patience when evaluating progression and always keeping in mind possible NHL role for a said player. I'm sure the Habs did not draft McCarron thinking he would be a first line player - but I am sure that they saw him as a sure fire NHL player that could contribute.

It's a four line game. On good teams the difference between the first line and 4th line could be 4-5 minutes - everyone is needed and the role players are just as significant in playoffs.

Yeah, this "anyone can bust" thing is total fence-sitting. Of course, no one can predict the future, however, the drafting of young players and the type of data mining and development most teams engage in, should tell us a thing or two about risk management. The mere fact of trying to decide a young player's career path just based on the one season of play in the juniors, when they're coming from a US system, or not taking into account the particular attributes of the player and how other "comparables" have fared along their development path, is tantamount to playing the lottery.

Of course, there is uncertainty but there are also data points we can process and extrapolate from. As a general rule, I'd rather abstain from making value judgments about first and second year players -- most of the time, it takes a lot longer to see what they're really about. We shouldn't be confusing the high success ratio of very early first round picks, with the incremental risk that each of the subsequent picks represents. And yet ... here we have posters making definitive judgments about certain players, something that even organizations have trouble doing and they have access to way more info that we do. I guess all threads need inflammatory fodder.

 

[Mathletic]

Yeah, this "anyone can bust" thing is total fence-sitting. Of course, no one can predict the future, however, the drafting of young players and the type of data mining and development most teams engage in, should tell us a thing or two about risk management. The mere fact of trying to decide a young player's career path just based on the one season of play in the juniors, when they're coming from a US system, or not taking into account the particular attributes of the player and how other "comparables" have fared along their development path, is tantamount to playing the lottery.

Of course, there is uncertainty but there are also data points we can process and extrapolate from. As a general rule, I'd rather abstain from making value judgments about first and second year players -- most of the time, it takes a lot longer to see what they're really about. We shouldn't be confusing the high success ratio of very early first round picks, with the incremental risk that each of the subsequent picks represents. And yet ... here we have posters making definitive judgments about certain players, something that even organizations have trouble doing and they have access to way more info that we do. I guess all threads need inflammatory fodder.

Look, I find this a bit ridiculous so I'll keep myself to stating the obvious once again. Grant stated just after the draft that there was no bust factor with McCarron. I replied to him at that time saying it didn't make any sense and any prospect had a risk% to go along them. Let alone a late first round pick. So saying there was no bust factor was a bit optimistic I thought. The quote you posted was made after some game in December or January against Guelph or Kingston, can't recall, in which McCarron looked pretty bad given that you had players out for the WJC. Whitesnake and I both agreed that if things continued that way for any extended period of time, McCarron's career wouldn't last long. To be fair, a few games after (coming back from christmas break I believe) he picked things up.

You don't have to look too far for those "no risk" players à la Tyler Biggs who end up in ECHL not too long after being drafted. Sure you might argue that McCarron has this, this and that over players like Gillies, Biggs or any big guy you can find around but I find that the bust rate for those "no bust factor" guys is pretty high.

Besides, I never used that one season alone to argue that I didn't agree with the selection or argued in favour of a trade (in an hypothetical world) if given similar value back (late first round pick). I always argued that based on all his hockey since his 15 year old season, the guy never put any significant numbers on the board. That I wouldn't want to pay for a grinder the price of a first round pick (or refused a first round pick back for such a player). Players who accomplish similar roles like Winnik or even Malhotra are actually great at playing those roles but some reason can't find a job every time they hit the market. These guys end up making even less than McCarron's entry level contract, not taking into account the risk that he might not even make it to the big show or become as effective as those guys. Being big doesn't do anything for me if it doesn't come with more offense or more defense.

All I do is I offer my opinion on prospects based on the models I built to analyse players. I don't think I've done too bad over the years as players I liked a lot like Barrie, Toffoli, Severson, Gibson, Jenner, Hudon, etc. are all off to great starts. I never attacked McCarron personally nor anyone for having a different opinion than mine. All I did was discussing about players. If you think I'm bad poster, a bit stupid who just wants some attention fine, we'll just leave it at that. I don't think there's a need to continue this conversation.

 

[S Bah]

Some here are just interested in proving they are smarter than everyone else, including the Habs brass. How easy to proclaim prospects busts after one year and then hiding behind a statement that every prospect has a bust factor - no *** Sherlock. Even #1 overall picks can sometimes bust or become role players.

What's harder is to show restraint and patience when evaluating progression and always keeping in mind possible NHL role for a said player. I'm sure the Habs did not draft McCarron thinking he would be a first line player - but I am sure that they saw him as a sure fire NHL player that could contribute.

It's a four line game. On good teams the difference between the first line and 4th line could be 4-5 minutes - everyone is needed and the role players are just as significant in playoffs.

First of all if you think the Habs brass are concerned with proving they are smarter than posters here, I'd call that delusional. I can understand sometimes fans here seem to think they "Know it All" and that for some people that actually get paid for their knowledge, they may try to educate us. Which in Grant's case, I commend him for his patience and goodwill in particular, but he's not the Habs brass! Posters here are merely fans as far as I know, most people with common sense, don't try to belittle others without the knowledge they may have, at least in my experience. Grant has expressed that players chosen in the 1st round of the draft, particularly in a deep draft like 2013 Entry Draft(McCarron's draft year) teams pick players with, in their eyes have top six potential. Certainly the Habs with their talent evaluator's drafted McCarron with that thought in mind.

When a player like McCarron starts showing that ability he was drafted for that's just icing on the cake for our team, not some distorted reasoning to make someone feel stupid, for what they may or may not have said. Rather people expressed fans wait before making rash statements based on very limited knowledge, obviously leaving them feel foolish later, then calling the Habs brass down, when they have had no part in the whole/entire conversations, just a complete headshaker for any person reading these remarks, IMHO.

Stop, reread your remarks and realize that people running pro hockey teams must have all day to sit and try to belittle fans, yes that's so real, take a downer and get off of your highhorse and walk on the same turf the rest of us are for a couple of moments, reality isn't so bad it's just your frame of mind needs a little adjusting. Most people love one another, don't have the time or desire to belittle others, to be quite honest I prefer helping others that seem confused about the simple realities in life, definitely not creating chaos for others, that's just senseless to do otherwise, IMHO. By the way thanks for expressing your opinion, it's more than overdue here for some of the crap we have to endure.

 

[Bacchus1]

I came here to find out how McCarron is doing? This little public spat is uninteresting.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

I came here to find out how McCarron is doing? This little public spat is uninteresting.

HE'S THE MOST AMAZING BUST WE EVER HAD!!!



He's squashing the OHL

 

[Gally11]

Who cares who was right or wrong about McCarron either way none of you will know for another two or three years and all of you have been wrong at some point about another prospect.

I've been pretty stoked about him since we drafted him even after a bad first year. I don't care if there are prospects taken after him that have better careers statistically, I feel like what he has potential to bring to the Habs will generate more Ws than some winger putting up a few more goals and assists a year. We got a ton of prospects with some offensive upside, give me the 6'5 beast that's going to intimidate the other team and hammer them in the corners.

Also would be nice to have a forward that can actually screen a goalie on the PP and he's the type of guy that can have some pretty good playoff runs. Let's just be excited that combining camp and last weekend he's starting off on the right giant foot this year.

 

[Runner77]

If you think I'm bad poster, a bit stupid who just wants some attention fine, we'll just leave it at that. I don't think there's a need to continue this conversation.

No one thinks that of you, let alone, me.

I don't know why you took it upon yourself to reiterate the same context you had already provided with a previous post, I was merely agreeing with the more general precepts of the post I was responding to, which apply to anyone at large. It was never my intent to return to the context that you elaborated. Hopefully, this clears it up. It was never about you, at least that's how I read the situation, FWIW.

 

[Habnot]

First of all if you think the Habs brass are concerned with proving they are smarter than posters here, I'd call that delusional. I can understand sometimes fans here seem to think they "Know it All" and that for some people that actually get paid for their knowledge, they may try to educate us. Which in Grant's case, I commend him for his patience and goodwill in particular, but he's not the Habs brass! Posters here are merely fans as far as I know, most people with common sense, don't try to belittle others without the knowledge they may have, at least in my experience. Grant has expressed that players chosen in the 1st round of the draft, particularly in a deep draft like 2013 Entry Draft(McCarron's draft year) teams pick players with, in their eyes have top six potential. Certainly the Habs with their talent evaluator's drafted McCarron with that thought in mind.

You must of misread what I posted or I didn't make myself clear. I meant there are a lot posters here that think they know more than paid professionals let alone NHL GM's, Head scouts, coaches etc.

And yes there are a few (Mathletic as example) who's convictions are based on analysis but too many just look at boxscores and proclaim bust if prospects are putting up points.

As for the Habs selecting McCarron, you have to factor the 3 2nd round picks the Habs possessed, and subsequently were able gamble on a player that could be a game changer or at worst a bottom line. I believe Timmins said as much - the Habs drafted need and not necessarily BPA because they had the security of additional picks.

 

[Price is Wright]

HE'S THE MOST AMAZING BUST WE EVER HAD!!!

Bustier than Busto?

 

[S Bah]

You must of misread what I posted or I didn't make myself clear. I meant there are a lot posters here that think they know more than paid professionals let alone NHL GM's, Head scouts, coaches etc.

And yes there are a few (Mathletic as example) who's convictions are based on analysis but too many just look at boxscores and proclaim bust if prospects are putting up points.

As for the Habs selecting McCarron, you have to factor the 3 2nd round picks the Habs possessed, and subsequently were able gamble on a player that could be a game changer or at worst a bottom line. I believe Timmins said as much - the Habs drafted need and not necessarily BPA because they had the security of additional picks.

I was in agreement in fact, just throwing a little extra sarcasm out there, I was getting overloaded needed a release. Too much negative around some threads for my tastes, with the Habs leading the league and coming to Van tomorrow I'm ecstatic with joy about the Habs. I can't understand how our fans can be trying to point out negatives when they should be celebrating the great start to the season. The need for a big PWF was certainly obvious for the Habs & drafting McCarron whose season suggested he would be gone by the 17th or 18th pick, IMHO. I was seriously elated he was available at our pick, moreso when the Habs chose him and followed with JDLR & Crisp, not to forget to mention Fucale, Lehkonen & Andrighetto, all in one draft, yeah.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

Fact is, people on this board basically outright declared him a bust. Either it was merely in jest, as an hyperbole, or any other excuse that would contradic the letter of their words, it doesn change the impression these comments left on this board.

Just remember your words always carry weight, and that using colorful metaphore to represent the struggles of a prospect will be taken as a very negative assessment of that prospect. If you actually wanted to express a more balanced opinion at the time, you should have done so.

At the time.

So people calling out "you were wrong to declare him bust" (for smug point, let be fair) may not be technically right, but they nonetheless took your words to their logical conclusion.

Not saying this to anyone specific. Just getting tired over the war on words raging over 6-month old assessments.

 

[hototogisu]

Big Mac named an alternate captain of the Knights per their twitter account.

 

[Mathletic]

No one thinks that of you, let alone, me.

I don't know why you took it upon yourself to reiterate the same context you had already provided with a previous post, I was merely agreeing with the more general precepts of the post I was responding to, which apply to anyone at large. It was never my intent to return to the context that you elaborated. Hopefully, this clears it up. It was never about you, at least that's how I read the situation, FWIW.

ok my bad, I shouldn't have reacted that way

 

[Team_Spirit]

Big Mac named an alternate captain of the Knights per their twitter account.

hell yeah

big mac

 

[Tyson]

Great to hear Mac has earned a leadership role! The kid has huge upside!

 

[PricePkPatch*]

Come on. With a face like this, who doesn't want to pinch his cheek?

 

[RandR]

Big Mac named an alternate captain of the Knights per their twitter account.

Good for him.

Continuing a franchise tradition, Knights players voted on the team captaincy on Wednesday afternoon at Budweiser Gardens.

link

I would assume the players also choose the alternates. Whatever way McCarron was picked as an alternate, it can only add to his increasing confidence.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

Good for him.


link

I would assume the players also choose the alternates. Whatever way McCarron was picked as an alternate, it can only add to his increasing confidence.

Telling you. He's a Karakter guy

 

[Rickkins]

Whoa... first thread closed after over 1000 posts, a first for a thread I started, at least here. Woohoo...

And, congrats on the "A", Big Mac....!!

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

The way he rag-dolled Kevan Miller in the preseason, all while being in possession of the puck, makes me think that no matter what his offensive upside is, he'll be a valuable NHLer.

I see him becoming the forward version of Dustin Byfuglien, playing a similar role as him back when he was with the Hawks. A 3rd line RW who negates the physical impact of other players, and who can play on the PP in front of the net, and have an occasional shift on the 1st line.

 

[jpchabby]

The way he rag-dolled Kevan Miller in the preseason, all while being in possession of the puck, makes me think that no matter what his offensive upside is, he'll be a valuable NHLer.

I see him becoming the forward version of Dustin Byfuglien, playing a similar role as him back when he was with the Hawks. A 3rd line RW who negates the physical impact of other players, and who can play on the PP in front of the net, and have an occasional shift on the 1st line.

That would be really, really great.

Yes he has good hands around the net. Season ticket holder.
His net presence (positioning, focus, battle between the whistles and not after has improved as well)

Nice! Thanks man

 

[Haburger]

Some here are just interested in proving they are smarter than everyone else, including the Habs brass. How easy to proclaim prospects busts after one year and then hiding behind a statement that every prospect has a bust factor - no *** Sherlock. Even #1 overall picks can sometimes bust or become role players.

What's harder is to show restraint and patience when evaluating progression and always keeping in mind possible NHL role for a said player. I'm sure the Habs did not draft McCarron thinking he would be a first line player - but I am sure that they saw him as a sure fire NHL player that could contribute.

It's a four line game. On good teams the difference between the first line and 4th line could be 4-5 minutes - everyone is needed and the role players are just as significant in playoffs.

I'd say 98% on here know very little about the nhl and how it works.but thats how the internet works.full of pretenders.