The Barry Trotz Effect?

[McDNicks17]

Nah man, if you make an early observation about something that can be potentially interesting to keep track of, hf will yell “but muh sample size”

This years islanders team is a great case study on the importance of coaching. Should be fun to see what happens

Sample size is extremely important for numbers like these.

Teams with unsustainable SH%s can mask possession metrics that poor for small stretches, but over a larger sample sizes, they come down to earth pretty quickly.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

If this is still going, I want you to check out this information OP. Washington, over the last 3 seasons, is quite mind-boggling.

On a side note, Washington clearly has some sort of voodoo magic going on. Over the past 3 full seasons, at 5V5, their GF% is 56.57%. The next best team is Tampa, at 53.78%, and every other team is within 1% of the team above and below them. (Except Buffalo is dead last and 1.76% lower than the 30th place Canucks.) Their PDO is 1.019, next best is Minnesota at 1.011 and every other team is within 0.005 of the next team above and below them. Their HDCF% is 48.22% which is notably lower than their CF% and SF%. This tells me that HDCF is a complete failure at judging whether or not a team's shots and chances are actually dangerous or not.

There is clearly more to hockey than some of these stats are telling us. And statistics like Corsi (which, BTW, I love) are clearly diminishing in effectiveness from the times that Washington and LA were ranking 1st in it and then destroying everybody.

If Trotz can bring up NYI to a 1.02 PDO, and Washington falls below 1.01 (At 5V5), while no other metrics (such as xPDO, xGF%, CF%, HDCF%) can make sense of this, then I think that these statisticians need to watch hundreds of Barry Trotz games and figure out what he’s doing, and then develop a new xGF% model.

 

[Critical13]

Not a whole lot of change, but we've seen NYI's storybook start falter while Washington has surged lately now sitting 10th. Can change quickly in the Metro. The stats don't really tell the story as to why one is falling and the other rising, other than NYI suddenly giving up a few more chances and goals. Might add PDO.

Update: 21 games in

New York Islanders

Stat (5v5)	2017-2018 (Weight)	2018-2019 (Trotz)
High Danger Chances For/60	9th overall (11.35)	22nd overall (10.3)
High Danger Chances Against/60	31st overall (12.8)	25th overall (12.25)
High Danger Chances For%	25th overall (47.16%)	26th overall (45.68%)
Goals For/60	4th overall (2.65)	7th overall (2.86)
Goals Against/60	30th overall (2.98)	14th overall (2.38)
Goals For%	19th overall (48.36%)	7th overall (54.65%)
Corsi For%	28th overall (47.49%)	28th overall (46.31%)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Washington

Stat (5v5)	2017-2018 (Trotz)	2018-2019 (Reirden)
High Danger Chances For/60	21st overall (10.24)	26th overall (9.58)
High Danger Chances Against/60	29th overall (12.47)	30th overall (12.85)
High Danger Chances For%	31st overall (45.08%)	29th overall (42.71%)
Goals For/60	7th overall (2.58)	8th overall (2.81)
Goals Against/60	13th overall (2.32)	24th overall (2.77)
Goals For%	10th overall (52.63%)	9th overall (53.85%)
Corsi For%	24th overall (47.96%)	24th overall (47.24%)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

Not a whole lot of change, but we've seen NYI's storybook start falter

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Storybook would be 19-3, we are better than people think. Trotz is doing his thing.

 

[Chips]

Not a whole lot of change, but we've seen NYI's storybook start falter while Washington has surged lately now sitting 10th. Can change quickly in the Metro. The stats don't really tell the story as to why one is falling and the other rising, other than NYI suddenly giving up a few more chances and goals. Might add PDO.

Update: 21 games in

New York Islanders

Stat (5v5)	2017-2018 (Weight)	2018-2019 (Trotz)
High Danger Chances For/60	9th overall (11.35)	22nd overall (10.3)
High Danger Chances Against/60	31st overall (12.8)	25th overall (12.25)
High Danger Chances For%	25th overall (47.16%)	26th overall (45.68%)
Goals For/60	4th overall (2.65)	7th overall (2.86)
Goals Against/60	30th overall (2.98)	14th overall (2.38)
Goals For%	19th overall (48.36%)	7th overall (54.65%)
Corsi For%	28th overall (47.49%)	28th overall (46.31%)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Washington

Stat (5v5)	2017-2018 (Trotz)	2018-2019 (Reirden)
High Danger Chances For/60	21st overall (10.24)	26th overall (9.58)
High Danger Chances Against/60	29th overall (12.47)	30th overall (12.85)
High Danger Chances For%	31st overall (45.08%)	29th overall (42.71%)
Goals For/60	7th overall (2.58)	8th overall (2.81)
Goals Against/60	13th overall (2.32)	24th overall (2.77)
Goals For%	10th overall (52.63%)	9th overall (53.85%)
Corsi For%	24th overall (47.96%)	24th overall (47.24%)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Weren’t the Islanders already allowing a ton of chances with great goaltending from the start? I thought their PDO had been pretty darn luck, and whatever that other chart that comes with it was too. They were well into the top right, and bottom left of the charts, respectively. More so than other teams

 

[tinyzombies]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...ng-better-shots-not-more-shots/?noredirect=on