The Barry Trotz Effect?

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  1. Critical91

    Critical91 Matthews, roll a Constitution saving throw.

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    I found this kind of interesting. Based on a very small sample, but might worth keeping an eye on.

    New York seems to have gotten much better defensively, but also seem to be very opporunistic, scoring at an average level despite being the worst team at creating High Danger scoring chances 5v5.

    Washington is hard to read - last year they were the worst team for trading chances 5v5, but they scored often and the PP was was top 10.

    I am not big into stats, I was just looking at some Leaf comparisons and the NYI numbers caught my eye so I thought I paste it into here in case anyone has something to say.

    With more team and a larger sample size, the numbers should firm up a bit, might be interesting to revisit later in the season.

    New York Islanders

    Stat (5v5)2017-2018 (Weight)2018-2019 (Trotz)
    High Danger Chances For/609th overall (11.35)31st overall (7.47)
    High Danger Chances Against/6031st overall (12.8)12th overall (10.91)
    High Danger Chances For%25th overall (47.16%)29th overall (41.54%)
    Goals For/604th overall (2.65)14th overall (2.63)
    Goals Against/6030th overall (2.98)10th overall (1.94)
    Goals For%19th overall (48.36%)10th overall (57.58%)
    Corsi For%28th overall (47.49%)30th overall (42.25%)
    Washington
    Stat (5v5)2017-2018 (Trotz)2018-2019 (Reirden)
    High Danger Chances For/6021st overall (10.24)27th overall (9.45)
    High Danger Chances Against/6029th overall (12.47)27th overall (13.48)
    High Danger Chances For%31st overall (45.08%)30th overall (41.21%)
    Goals For/607th overall (2.58)12th overall (2.65)
    Goals Against/6013th overall (2.32)24th overall (2.77)
    Goals For%10th overall (52.63%)16th overall (48.84%)
    Corsi For%24th overall (47.96%)18th overall (49.22%)

    source
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2018
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  2. damacles1156

    damacles1156 Registered User

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    A coach that demands structure and discipline in your game is a winning formula.
     
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  3. BillNy

    BillNy Registered User

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    Maybe he's just a solid coach who improved the defense over a terrible coach, and the offensive numbers aren't down because he sacrificed offense for defense, but because they lost an elite offensive player?
     
  4. Critical91

    Critical91 Matthews, roll a Constitution saving throw.

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    Yea, the tricky party is comparing when the roster has lost a key player. I am mostly interested if they can keep being a good goals for team with the lowest amount of high danger chances. Or maybe the chances go up to match goal production over time.

    Either way, I was surprised that stark a comparison could be made. I don't think we will get the chance to compare two absolute opposite coaches 1 year from the next like we do with NYI this year.
     
  5. tellermine

    tellermine Registered User

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    Was thinking the same thing.

    Eye test tells me that Islanders move way more fast from defencezone to attack.
    Also fast attacks tend to end to a good shot.
    More straight game, faster.

    Really interesting to see how Trotz can keep it up. Looks promising.
     
  6. LatvianTwist

    LatvianTwist Global Moderator

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    Look at Dallas over the last 3 years for a similar comparison. Ruff to Hitchcock - also polar opposites.
     
  7. bigtim1988

    bigtim1988 YES! YES! YES! YES!

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    Love the structure Trotz brings, very refreshing.

    Even during the years where they were good--2014/2015-2015/2016--there was constant breakdowns in the D-zone, and they were CONSTANTLY blowing leads.

    They would go into the 3rd period leading 4-1, only to lose 6-5 in OT. With Trotz, when they have a lead, they tend to keep it, and it's been less stressful to watch as a fan
     
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  8. Sam Spade

    Sam Spade Registered User Sponsor

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    Trotz is a very good coach.
     
  9. traparatus

    traparatus Registered User

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    Trotz is a good coach. If you combine this with the fact that Islanders defensive ineptitude last season was historic, they will undoubtedly perform much better defensively this year.

    As for Capitals, their early season performance was always going to be driven by the fact that they where playing hockey in June, just like it is for every Stanley Cup winner. That's the defining factor, not a coaching change.
     
  10. LordNeverLose

    LordNeverLose Registered User

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    Yeah for the most part the individual stats aren't down. Barzal, Bailey, and Lee are all producing at a higher rate than they did last season for example. It's just that losing a PPG 1C tends to hurt your offense.
     
  11. SI90

    SI90 Registered User

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    As an islanders fan it’s been such a treat. It’s amazing what legit coaching can do. The isles roster isn’t up to par and they don’t have the best defensive core but they’re playing such structured hockey and it’s been a noticeable difference from past years. Pretty amazing.
     
  12. isles55

    isles55 Registered User

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    The Trotz effect = 25th to 29th.
     
  13. Jester9881

    Jester9881 Registered User

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    Because of the small sample, and awful schedule the Isles have had so far... you can't really read too much into how they have done either way.
     
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  14. Alexei Yashvalev

    Alexei Yashvalev Registered User

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    Certainly an indictment of how terrible Doug Weight was and how historically bad defensively his team was.

    Look at Jaro Halak. Instantly turns into a real good goalie the moment he leaves NYI.
     
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  15. LordNeverLose

    LordNeverLose Registered User

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    Or just look at Greiss who's still on the team but not playing for Weight anymore
     
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  16. Alexei Yashvalev

    Alexei Yashvalev Registered User

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    Yeah exactly. Weight was just a disaster.
     
  17. Chips

    Chips Registered User

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    So much body shaming in here.
     
  18. boredmale

    boredmale Registered User Sponsor

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    While you couldn't tell from today's game, it seems like the PP has gotten better(although that is only a small sample size) while 5 on 5 has gotten worse
     
  19. boredmale

    boredmale Registered User Sponsor

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    Biggest difference I find in the defensive zone is the Islanders aren't running around like chickens with their heads cut off plus they aren't losing the puck in the neutral zone.

    That being said I am still disappointed we are seeing a high amount of bad puck clearings in the defensive zone(ie player tries get the puck out and the other team stops it before it hits the redline). That is something they need to work on.
     
  20. BillNy

    BillNy Registered User

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    the scoring chances eventually track with the shot-attempts, though. Most great scoring chances are off rebounds and re-directions. If they keep taking shots, eventually they'll get a few bounces and get some garbage goals. I think they'll score fine. They were so great offensively, even losing Tavares, I can't imagine the high danger chances won't come eventually.
     
  21. Nolanitis

    Nolanitis Registered User

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    awful in what way, 7 road games out of 10?
     
  22. JoeThorntonsRooster

    JoeThorntonsRooster There is no anti-Leafs bias on HFBoards

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    These stats don't tell a lot when it's only 10 games in.

    Also, with NYI, consider that they lost Tavares which will have a huge effect on their ability to generate offense.
     
  23. tellermine

    tellermine Registered User

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    True. They have a clear system at the own end.

    Cant say about the clearings as I havent seen that many games.
    But also that aspect could improve.
     
  24. Danny1237

    Danny1237 Registered User

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    The defensive side of the game makes sense. Trotz structure is quite defensive oriented.

    The thing with making the comparisons is that Reirden is taking over a group that had that structured ingrained in them a lot, so they are still doing a similar job at limiting chances against. So it will be interesting to see if Washington starts going away from that as the season moves along or if Reirden will kind of become a Trotz disciple.

    With the high conversion on high danger chances, I think that it's just mainly caused by the small sample size. I would think that it will regress, quite a bit over time.

    The biggest change that seems reasonable is the team is moving to a more defensive structure, but lost a high end producer, so those the decrease in chances against, while decreasing the chances for seems like something that will continue all year.
     
  25. Critical91

    Critical91 Matthews, roll a Constitution saving throw.

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    Sometime around game 40 I hope to post an update. I am curious how Rierden's stats look by then.
     

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