The Avs Advanced Stats Thread [Now with a Fresh, "New Title" look!]

[tigervixxxen]

We added Mikko. Would be even more one of those bums without him. Not changing the roster pretty much had me thinking 10th again, maybe they still do.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

After Florida

|Semyon Varlamov|Calvin Pickard
Games Started|18|11
Quality Starts %|.556|.455
GSAA|-6.36|-3.26
5on5 SV%|91.09|90.57
RBS|3|4

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

After Winnipeg

|Semyon Varlamov|Calvin Pickard
Games Started|18|12
Quality Starts %|.556|.417
GSAA|-6.36|-3.89
5on5 SV%|91.09|90.41
RBS|3|4

 

[henchman21]

After 30 games:

5v5 Corsi: 46.68 (28th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 46.09 (29th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 46.55 (28th)
PDO: 971 (30th)
Off Zone Starts: 410
Def Zone Starts: 472
ZS %: 46.49 (26th)
5v5 GF %: 37.04 (30th)
Point Percentage: 0.77 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 38.46 (29th)

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

After Minnesota

|Semyon Varlamov|Calvin Pickard
Games Started|19|12
Quality Starts %|.579|.417
GSAA|-5.48|-3.89
5on5 SV%|91.37|90.41
RBS|3|4

So despite what the rest of the team is doing Varlamov is becoming a silver lining. Either he is raising his trade value for the fire sale crew or he's showing the net is his and even the competition from Pickard isn't knocking him off his game.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

After Minnesota

|Semyon Varlamov|Calvin Pickard
Games Started|19|12
Quality Starts %|.579|.417
GSAA|-5.48|-3.89
5on5 SV%|91.37|90.41
RBS|3|4

So despite what the rest of the team is doing Varlamov is becoming a silver lining. Either he is raising his trade value for the fire sale crew or he's showing the net is his and even the competition from Pickard isn't knocking him off his game.

Serious question for you. Do you think teams look at the stats you keep using? Or do you think they base it on the traditional GAA/SV% stats along with the eye test from their pro scouts?

I have no idea how anybody really evaluates goalies so I'm genuinely curious. I believe the most positive aspect of Varly's trade value is the eye test. I know his stats don't look great but Varly looks damn good most of the time.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

Serious question for you. Do you think teams look at the stats you keep using? Or do you think they base it on the traditional GAA/SV% stats along with the eye test from their pro scouts?

I have no idea how anybody really evaluates goalies so I'm genuinely curious. I believe the most positive aspect of Varly's trade value is the eye test. I know his stats don't look great but Varly looks damn good most of the time.

If you're looking at purely win records, raw SV% and GAA (yuck)...then those teams are absolute idiots. Especially for the GAA stat as in goalie communities its generally disliked with some outright wanting to get rid of it because ultimately it doesn't matter one bit.

I can't say though if NHL teams are looking at those specific statistics. Eye test will always be a top way to evaluate goalies because as of right now there isn't an easy way to determine how mentally strong a goalie is compared to their peers (though I will say there is some work being done on it). Sometimes you do have to look into the advanced stats though to find those gems or undervalued goalies and then go scout them.

It's hard to say what NHL teams are looking at though when evaluating goalies. For instance I talked with someone at a CHL game recently who is contracted to a NHL team as an analytics consultant. If I'm remembering the conversation correctly the NHL team didn't really use him for analytics on goaltending...at all, more defense or forwards. So if other teams are like that it seems as though NHL teams are hoping that the eye test is 100% correct and they aren't missing anything.

TL;DR No idea what NHL teams are doing, seems like they are relying purely on the eye test and hoping the raw stats back them up. NHL pro/amateur in general though needs help in terms of goalies.

Story time: Current Yotes GM used to work for the Nucks org. and when Jim Benning was brought on board the ONLY time he used analytics was to show how good a player was. So for instance the Markus Granlund trade he'd ask the analytics department not for a full report on Granlund, just on what Granlund was good at so he could take that to Linden and say "hey look how good this guy is, ok the trade for me".

 

[tigervixxxen]

Story time: Current Yotes GM used to work for the Nucks org. and when Jim Benning was brought on board the ONLY time he used analytics was to show how good a player was. So for instance the Markus Granlund trade he'd ask the analytics department not for a full report on Granlund, just on what Granlund was good at so he could take that to Linden and say "hey look how good this guy is, ok the trade for me".

This might explain a lot.

No matter how bad it's gotten, the fact that none of these stories exist on Sakic doesn't place him in the bottom 5.

 

[Trinstin]

Sakic might have just gotten a poor team to work with but then again looking at where we were when he came in... No I still have to place him in the bottom 5 for now.

 

[henchman21]

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

After Toronto/Chicago

|Semyon Varlamov|Calvin Pickard
Games Started|20|13
Quality Starts %|.550|.462
GSAA|-8.97|-1.50
5on5 SV%|90.80|91.62
RBS|4|4

 

[Nalens Oga]

http://www.milehighhockey.com/2016/12/26/14082238/hit-or-miss-where-do-the-avs-shots-go

 

[henchman21]

This is really, really bad

 

[InjuredChoker]

i brought that up maybe a month ago. then, i think we were 2nd worst (edit. 3rd worst) with canucks being the worst team by far.

well, only way up.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

After Calgary

|Semyon Varlamov|Calvin Pickard
Games Started|20|14
Quality Starts %|.550|.429
GSAA|-8.97|-4.75
5on5 SV%|90.80|90.88
HD SV%|77.33|72.63
RBS|4|5

 

[Freudian]

Statistical oddity:

Weircioch has the lowest Corsi Against on the PK among all NHL defenders.

Söderberg is 4th and Landeskog 12th among forwards. Ryan O'Reilly is third worst.

 

[Ivan13]

i brought that up maybe a month ago. then, i think we were 2nd worst (edit. 3rd worst) with canucks being the worst team by far.

well, only way up.

Oh it can get worse

Not in ranking, but percentage wise we still haven't hit the bottom I fear.

 

[forbzee44]

Colorado and their CF%

Is anybody here a fan of looking into advanced stats? I was messing around on Corsica, looking up stats and possession numbers, and the only players that had a CF% of 49 and up, (50% is the median, you want to be above that) are...


Defence: Johnson (duh) + Gelinas (surprisingly, should we keep this guy around?)

Forwards: Landeskog, Mackinnon,(duh), Mitchell, Iginla, Comeau, Colborne (surprised any of those 4 are)

I know Rantanen and Zadorov are really young so I'll give them a pass, I'll even give Grigorenko a pass as I'm still a fan of his and he's still really young, but these results are kind of weird.

A lot of the players who I thought were playing awful (Comeau, Iggy, Colborne, Mitchell) still post decent possession numbers relative to the team, even if the points aren't there.

And guys like Duchene and Barrie are posting awful numbers, even though they're supposed to be really great players.

I know the situation here isn't helping anyone, but what do you guys think about this? does any of this mean anything?

 

[tigervixxxen]

We have stats thread here

With the team playing as poor as they are, I'm not sure much can be gleaned from these stats right now. It's just suck and suckier.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Posted this in the GDT but forgot about this thread. I guess these are considered advanced stats.

Some stats on our defenseman and their effectiveness of getting shots through.

Percentage of ALL shot attempts (includes blocked shots) that make it on net

Barrie: 44%
EJ: 50%
Wiercioch: 48%
Goloubef: 40%
Tyutin: 56%
Beauchemin: 49%
Zadorov: 33%
Gelinas: 49%


Percentage of unblocked shot attempts that make it on net

Barrie: 66%
EJ: 73%
Wiercioch: 74%
Goloubef: 100%
Tyutin: 85%
Beauchemin: 68%
Zadorov: 54%
Gelnias: 70%


Percentage of shot attempts that go unblocked AKA Shin Pad Crusher stats

Barrie: 67%
EJ: 68%
Wiercioch: 64%
Goloubef: 40%
Tyutin: 66%
Beauchemin: 69%
Zadorov: 70%
Gelinas: 70%

 

[henchman21]

Been a while since I updated these... still terrible.

After 40 games:

5v5 Corsi: 46.49 (28th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 45.11 (30th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 45.96 (29th)
PDO: 969 (30th)
Off Zone Starts: 566
Def Zone Starts: 633
ZS %: 47.21(25th)
5v5 GF %: 36.36(30th)
Point Percentage: 0.68 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 40.05 (30th)

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Been a while since I updated these... still terrible.

After 40 games:

5v5 Corsi: 46.49 (28th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 45.11 (30th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 45.96 (29th)
PDO: 969 (30th)
Off Zone Starts: 566
Def Zone Starts: 633
ZS %: 47.21(25th)
5v5 GF %: 36.36(30th)
Point Percentage: 0.68 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 40.05 (30th)

The sad thing about the zone start % is that it's completely inflated based on the way we play. There are so many offensive zone draws because our team goes down for a one and done shot into the goaltenders trapper which leads to a faceoff. I think if we could see zone possession stats we would be absolutely embarrassed.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Here are the forward stats of getting shots through (only measured relevant players)

Percentage of ALL shot attempts (includes blocked shots) that make it on net

Duchene 64%
Mackinnon 60%
Landeskog 62%
Rantanen 49%
Bourque 59%
Grigorenko 62%
Iginla 61
Soderberg 70%
Comeau 55%


Percentage of unblocked shot attempts that make it on net (I would assume this is most important for a forward as it's pretty much your stat for accuracy)

Duchene 75%
Mackinnon 75%
Landeskog 79%
Rantanen 66%
Bourque 71%
Grigorenko 80%
Iginla 77%
Soderberg 83%
Comeau 72%


Percentage of shot attempts that go unblocked AKA Shin Pad Crusher stats

Duchene 85%
Mackinnon 81%
Landeskog 78%
Rantanen 73%
Bourque 83%
Grigorenko 77%
Iginla 79%
Soderberg 84%
Comeau 76%

 

[henchman21]

I think if we could see zone possession stats we would be absolutely embarrassed.

Yeah, I'd think there are pretty bad. 42 to games to go...

 

[henchman21]

After 45 games:

5v5 Corsi: 46.66 (27th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 45.51 (30th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 46.13 (30th)
PDO: 967 (30th) ... I thought this wasn't sustainable!?!
Off Zone Starts: 641
Def Zone Starts: 709
ZS %: 47.48(25th)
5v5 GF %: 36.14(30th)
Point Percentage: 0.62 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 40.95 (30th)