The Avs Advanced Stats Thread [Now with a Fresh, "New Title" look!]

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/allen/2016/11/16/advanced-stats-analytics-nhl-corsi-trotz-blashill-cheveldayoff/93930520/

I thought Corsi was supposed to be correlated strongly with winning games? It's meant to approximate possession?

The more you know!

 

[Nalens Oga]

A good shrewd hiring of a former NHL forward who can pass on some offensive skill and teach these guys how to convert their chances and improve the PP will really help us get over one of the bumps. I don't think Bednar will be able to improve the team offensively outside of roster improvements but he can improve the defence, an assistant needs to be brought in to help run offense.

 

[avs1dacup]

^So If I'm reading that right. We're doing a(Very surprisingly) very good job in our own end at 5v5, but doing a(Not surprisingly) very poor job at scoring and doing anything offensively?



The offensive side sounds about right as we've all seen the struggles. But Defensively is a surprise. Definitely feel we've improved this year but dont think we're improved that much.



Much appreciated.

Makes complete sense. They don't look as bogged down in their own end and aren't spending 3/4 of the game in their own zone. Also, 15 of their 47 goals against have been on the PK. 31 5v5 goals against is the 12th best in the entire league. That's only 1.82 goals against per game at even strength. Their PK is killing them.

They're scoring 2.12 goals a game while giving up 2.78 hence their record being right around .500. It's hard to win games when you're giving up a PP goal against every night and having a hard time scoring more than a couple goals at all yourself. But they're definitely trending in the right direction, at least according to the numbers.

 

[tigervixxxen]

A good shrewd hiring of a former NHL forward who can pass on some offensive skill and teach these guys how to convert their chances and improve the PP will really help us get over one of the bumps. I don't think Bednar will be able to improve the team offensively outside of roster improvements but he can improve the defence, an assistant needs to be brought in to help run offense.

Interesting thought, does seem like the been lacking in offensive talent in the coaching department for a while.

 

[henchman21]

All year the Avs have been much better defensively and moving the puck, that is pretty clear. IMO a big help in that is Wier and actually playing Z. The system makes it easier for those two to play within themselves (and keeps all the others besides Barrie in check... he still needs to find his game here). And I know he is the whipping boy on the defense, but Tyutin is working well right now. Z needs to get a bit more comfortable still and Tyutin allows some patience with that. By the end of the season that will be Z's job. The difference lately is MacK playing up to his abilities. He has had 2 absolutely monster games. He just needed a bit of confidence.

 

[chet1926]

After 17 games:

5v5 Corsi: 50.15 (15th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 48.56 (22nd)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 48.69 (20th)
PDO: 976 (25th)
Off Zone Starts: 261
Def Zone Starts: 250
ZS %: 51.08 (14th)
5v5 GF %: 41.51 (28th)
Point Percentage: 0.94 (24th)
Scoring Chance %: 48.48 (19th)

It's encouraging to see these kind of numbers considering our absolute lack of depth. If we can put up these kind of numbers with our current team, think about what we will be able to do once we start removing players like Iginla, McCleod etc. from the lineup and replacing them with guys like Jost, Compher, Greer who can actually play the game at a high level.

Bednar is a really good coach who knows his stuff and clearly can get the most from players who aren't NHL caliber. I really hope we give him enough time to turn the team around. It would be a shame to let him go to a team that actually has quality players.

 

[henchman21]

Replacing Iggy might make the Corsi worse... he actually has the 2nd highest Corsi on the team of players who have played a decent amount of minutes. Gelinas is #2 on D. Careful with the numbers.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Replacing Iggy might make the Corsi worse... he actually has the 2nd highest Corsi on the team of players who have played a decent amount of minutes. Gelinas is #2 on D. Careful with the numbers.

And Marty is awful. Iggy was carried by MacK for a while and hasn't had much of a ride on the submarine that is Soderberg, so that part is more explained.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Replacing Iggy might make the Corsi worse... he actually has the 2nd highest Corsi on the team of players who have played a decent amount of minutes. Gelinas is #2 on D. Careful with the numbers.

Maybe Bednar wasn't giving Iggy those minutes because he believed in him or because he was too scared to demote him. Maybe Bednar is more genius than we thought and is trying to inflate Iggys underlying numbers as much as his production to boost that trade value lol.

 

[henchman21]

And Marty is awful. Iggy was carried by MacK for a while and hasn't had much of a ride on the submarine that is Soderberg, so that part is more explained.

Outside the first 5 games he hasn't been with MacK that much. Some shifting up, but not a huge amount. Soda is only a couple games behind MacK on that. Iggy with Mitchy has been the working combo, at least Corsi wise (and I'd say eye test too... that line works).

Maybe Bednar wasn't giving Iggy those minutes because he believed in him or because he was too scared to demote him. Maybe Bednar is more genius than we thought and is trying to inflate Iggys underlying numbers as much as his production to boost that trade value lol.

What is funny is when you really look a the numbers, his best time has been with Mitchy and Comeau.

 

[tucker3434]

CF% took a bit of a hit after last game, but I was a bit surprised to see our total shot differential was only -8 and that was after getting outshot by 15. At the end of last season it was -302. Slightly better pace this year.

Overall, all the numbers are far better this year aside from shooting percentage. Hope we can keep it up all year.

 

[henchman21]

After 18 games:

5v5 Corsi: 49.07 (19th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 47.65 (23rd)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 47.92 (23rd)
PDO: 982 (25th)
Off Zone Starts: 273
Def Zone Starts: 277
ZS %: 49.34 (18th)
5v5 GF %: 42.86 (28th)
Point Percentage: 1.00 (22nd)
Scoring Chance %: 46.99 (23rd)

 

[henchman21]

CF% took a bit of a hit after last game, but I was a bit surprised to see our total shot differential was only -8 and that was after getting outshot by 15. At the end of last season it was -302. Slightly better pace this year.

Overall, all the numbers are far better this year aside from shooting percentage. Hope we can keep it up all year.

Not all the numbers are better. The scoring chances for are down, shooting percentage is down, the save percentage is down (expected IMO), GF/60 are way down (along with GA/60 not being down much), and GF% is way down. This team still has to find its way offensively. Defensively they are limiting shots and chances way better than years previous.

 

[tucker3434]

Not all the numbers are better. The scoring chances for are down, shooting percentage is down, the save percentage is down (expected IMO), GF/60 are way down (along with GA/60 not being down much), and GF% is way down. This team still has to find its way offensively. Defensively they are limiting shots and chances way better than years previous.

Yeah, I guess I mean all the "controllable" stats are better, mostly our shot and Corsi differential. Our PDO shouldn't be 25th, and I don't think it'll stay there. I am exponentially more confident in our forwards figuring out how to find the back of the net than I ever have been in the past of our defense figuring out how to suppress shots.

 

[henchman21]

Yeah, I guess I mean all the "controllable" stats are better, mostly our shot and Corsi differential. Our PDO shouldn't be 25th, and I don't think it'll stay there. I am exponentially more confident in our forwards figuring out how to find the back of the net than I ever have been in the past of our defense figuring out how to suppress shots.

I'm a bit worried about the lack of scoring chances, but IMO that is mostly on the top players actually playing well than anything else.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Not all the numbers are better. The scoring chances for are down, shooting percentage is down, the save percentage is down (expected IMO), GF/60 are way down (along with GA/60 not being down much), and GF% is way down. This team still has to find its way offensively. Defensively they are limiting shots and chances way better than years previous.

how is save percentage going down expected as they are limiting chances better than years previous?

 

[tigervixxxen]

how is save percentage going down expected as they are limiting chances better than years previous?

Would imagine it's from the goalies not playing well earlier.

 

[Pokecheque]

Sv% is extraordinarily fickle. Just like Sh% and scorers hit hot/cold streaks, so too do goalies.

Some goalies would tell you they'd rather see a ton of shots than hardly any at all.

 

[henchman21]

how is save percentage going down expected as they are limiting chances better than years previous?

There is a good amount of evidence that the more shots a team gives up, the higher their save percentage. Going by that theory and with the same goalies, the save percentage should be lower.

Varly has always been a goalie that does well against more shots.

 

[InjuredChoker]

i think the score effects play a big role here.

avs have played 842 mins 5on5. they have been up by at least 1 goal for only 187 mins of those, 3rd worst in the league. they have been down by at least 1 goal for more than twice as often, 366 minutes.

so as avs start to get the lead more often, they can focus more on playing safe and not take unnecesseary chances and the sv% numbers should go up. but on the other hand, shots against should go up and shots for down. that's why avs score adjusted corsi isn't as good as raw numbers.

of course to get more leads that would actually need some consistent goal-scoring to happen.

OT but LMAO. canucks have played 871 mins 5on5 and they have lead for less than 65 mins of those. and their goal differential is -4 when leading, they are 2-6.

 

[henchman21]

Sorry about the delay on updating... holiday weekend and pure laziness go the best of me.

After 20 games:

5v5 Corsi: 49.07 (20th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 47.85 (25th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 47.73 (23rd)
PDO: 986 (25th)
Off Zone Starts: 298
Def Zone Starts: 303
ZS %: 49.58 (17th)
5v5 GF %: 42.86 (28th)
Point Percentage: 0.95 (24th)
Scoring Chance %: 43.75 (28th)

 

[Nalens Oga]

Matt Duchene is my favourite player but he shouldn't be this high on a list. Serious failure by Sakic to acquire depth or the coaching staff to create offense bearing fruition now.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/look-players-driving-teams-offence/

 

[tigervixxxen]

Depth doesn't fall out of the sky. You have to do something to create it.

 

[henchman21]

Are people good with me updating the numbers every 5 games?

 

[Pokecheque]

Are people good with me updating the numbers every 5 games?

Seems fine to me.