The Avs Advanced Stats Thread [Now with a Fresh, "New Title" look!]

[InjuredChoker]

dead last only in 6 of 8 categories.

#avspositives

 

[henchman21]

More lasts:

 

[henchman21]

After 50 games:

5v5 Corsi: 46.91 (28th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 45.82 (30th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 46.45 (29th)
PDO: 970 (29th) ... Beating the Bruins!
Off Zone Starts: 718
Def Zone Starts: 799
ZS %: 47.33(25th)
5v5 GF %: 37.10(30th)
Point Percentage: 0.64 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 41.31(29th tied with Arizona)

 

[henchman21]

After 55 games:

5v5 Corsi: 47.34 (26th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 46.09 (29th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 46.71 (29th)
PDO: 968 (30th) ... last again
Off Zone Starts: 812
Def Zone Starts: 874
ZS %: 48.16(25th)
5v5 GF %: 36.32(30th)
Point Percentage: 0.58 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 41.67 (29th)

 

[AllAboutAvs]

After 55 games:

5v5 Corsi: 47.34 (26th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 46.09 (29th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 46.71 (29th)
PDO: 968 (30th) ... last again
Off Zone Starts: 812
Def Zone Starts: 874
ZS %: 48.16(25th)
5v5 GF %: 36.32(30th)
Point Percentage: 0.58 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 41.67 (29th)

The closer to 30th the better right? Well that's what I believe and I'm sticking to it.

 

[henchman21]

Don't say it can't get worse... next year there will be 31 teams.

 

[dahrougem2]

Don't say it can't get worse... next year there will be 31 teams.

Really goes to show how good Peter Budaj has been for Los Angeles this season.

 

[tigervixxxen]

More made up stats from Mike Kelly!

 

[henchman21]

More made up stats from Mike Kelly!

Because that is what Mike Kelly does...

 

[tigervixxxen]

Because that is what Mike Kelly does...

He's the one that tweets them.

I'm sure they are "real" but only he has access to them and it's completely unverified and without context.

 

[henchman21]

He's the one that tweets them.

I'm sure they are "real" but only he has access to them and it's completely unverified and without context.

Why is the real in quotation marks? I really doubt he is the only one with access to them (I'm guessing NHL teams have access). In most cases he is giving the context. This time shot percentage and shots from slot percentage. That is all the context really needed with that comparison. I'd guess there is a site that tracks slot shot attempts by area (I'm sure one of the stats people here can point in that direction... there is that heat map site that probably has something). The shot percentage, the Avs are at a solid 7% (all situations... 6.0% 5v5) LA is 7.9% all situations (6.5% 5v5). That is easily accessible.

 

[tigervixxxen]

All math is fake, no numbers are real!

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Kelly doesn't track these stats. There are issues from the NHL and NHLPA with making these databases completely public which is why he cant give record of where it comes from. I for one don't know where exactly they come from or how exact they are. I'm guessing it varies by arena as well. Unless you want to track them yourself he is the best person to use for gathering them right now though, regardless of how accurate they are. They are very useful stats so I appreciate his tweets.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

If anyone cares in the least bit (and even if you don't)

I'll be doing a simple linear regression test on CF% and FF% for all teams in all situations from 2015-16, and how it correlates with point totals from the 2015-16, 2016-17 seasons.

Why?

1. Is Cf% and ff% better at predicting the next season, or describing the current?
2. Which one is more accurate?

Stay tuned....

 

[henchman21]

 

[henchman21]

After 60 games:

5v5 Corsi: 47.49 (25th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 46.06 (29th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 46.80 (29th)
PDO: 971 (29th) not last!!!
Off Zone Starts: 895
Def Zone Starts: 947
ZS %: 48.59(22nd)
5v5 GF %: 36.99(30th)
Point Percentage: 0.62 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 42.18 (29th)

 

[henchman21]

Wow... I have been super lazy with this, probably because this team sucks so much.

After 75 games:

5v5 Corsi: 47.98 (25th)
5v5 Corsi Close: 46.67 (29th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 47.15 (28th)
PDO: 970 (30th)
Off Zone Starts: 1100
Def Zone Starts: 1169
ZS %: 48.48(22nd)
5v5 GF %: 36.59(30th)
Point Percentage: 0.57 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 43.26 (29th)

 

[henchman21]

End of the season:

5v5 Corsi: 48.53 (23rd)
5v5 Corsi Close: 47.15 (29th)
5v5 Corsi score and venue adjusted: 47.55 (28th)
PDO: 970 (30th)
Off Zone Starts: 1210
Def Zone Starts: 1282
ZS %: 48.56(22nd)
5v5 GF %: 37.13(30th)
Point Percentage: 0.59 (30th)
Scoring Chance %: 44.03 (29th)

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Ummmm, well...


I guess the good news is from game 60 to game 82 all those numbers improved.

 

[henchman21]

 

[henchman21]

These are pretty cool!

http://hockeyimpact.darkhorseanalytics.com/?m=GoalD&t=Stanley%20Cup%20Champion&ht=&hy=

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

These are pretty cool!

http://hockeyimpact.darkhorseanalytics.com/?m=GoalD&t=Stanley%20Cup%20Champion&ht=&hy=

Interesting correlation between the Stanley Cup Champs and raw SV% recently.

 

[henchman21]

Interesting correlation between the Stanley Cup Champs and raw SV% recently.

I thought there were a bunch of interesting ones. I wish numbers could be filtered down a bit to different situations, but just a neat thing to look at.

 

[Foppa2118]

These are pretty cool!

http://hockeyimpact.darkhorseanalytics.com/?m=GoalD&t=Stanley%20Cup%20Champion&ht=&hy=

That's nice quick look at some large sample stats in correlation to success.

Shots usually among the best for Cup winners.

Same with goal differential, which has been known for decades.

On top of that, shooting percentage doesn't seem to matter much. It's up and down from year to year.

To me a takeaway from those three stats, is that throwing pucks on net is a good strategy. Another thing that backs up what many coaches have been preaching for a long time.

Payroll seems to be just as important as it's always been.

Goal scoring and having one of the best offensive teams seems to go hand and hand with Cup winners.

Wish they had a goals against table.

PP/PK success was interesting. Obviously you can win without having a good percentage on either one, but it seems the Cup winners were among the best in the league in PK more often than the PP.

Depends a lot on your strengths and weaknesses in other areas, but those are some good numbers for the age old debate of which is more important. PP or PK.

To further prove that one stat isn't everything though, 7 out of the 16 years the team that lost in the finals had a better PK than the Cup winner. Same with the team that lost in the finals 7 times being a better offensive team than the Cup winner.

 

[henchman21]

https://www.milehighhockey.com/2017/8/7/16101858/colorado-avalanche-penalty-system-coaching-bednar

Can someone explain this to me? I just see a stats article using those to say the system is good, but nothing as to why the system is good and why it works. Am I just missing something here? I see no system talk.