OT: The Avalounge: Why'd we let this die for a month?

[Foppberg]

I want so badly the Ghost of Kyiv to be true... shooting down 2 SU 35s with a Mig29 is F legendary.

I wish I knew military weaponry to appreciate it. But I'm not American so

Touche mate! I forgot where I heard this, but I was listening to a random podcast one time with a ex-communist government member who defected from the KGB/Soviet Union. He was mentioning that the Communist party didn't mind falling in the early 1990s because they already had plans to rebuild the empire at a later stage. Now I am not saying this is what is happening now, but at the same time it's looking pretty dang accurate if we've seen what has happened to Russia in the last twenty years.

Eh, you're putting a lot of faith in the words of a KGB member lol. He was probably just putting on a strong image. "Yeah! We meant to lose, we'll sneak attack them in 30 years. You'll see!"

 

[henchman21]

I feel like you could buy off 80% of Finns with a pallet of ketchup.

 

[Hasbro]

I feel like you could buy off 80% of Finns with a pallet of ketchup.

How do you get the pallet to the middle of the woods where all Finns are making their Death Metal album covers?

 

[henchman21]

I wish I knew military weaponry to appreciate it. But I'm not American so

I'll state it in hockey terms... it is like Jack Johnson single handedly beating the Lightning.

The Mig29 is a super outdated plane from the 80s... last gasp of the Russian Cold War fighters meant to go up against F16s. The SU35 is Russia's best dogfighting fighter (arguably best in the world with the Rafale).

 

[henchman21]

How do you get the pallet to the middle of the woods where all Finns are making their Death Metal album covers?

Helicopters.

 

[S E P H]

Eh, you're putting a lot of faith in the words of a KGB member lol. He was probably just putting on a strong image. "Yeah! We meant to lose, we'll sneak attack them in 30 years. You'll see!"

I got an open mind so I don't mind reading or hearing info that might be cast off as rubbish from the mainstream eyes. I am not saying I ever believed his story, but wanted to mention what I heard. I still don't think he's entirely wrong, human condition dictates that we do NOT want to give up power, especially when a political party had full control of one of the biggest nations on earth for like four to five decades. That corruption gets passed on to the younger generation via the nature vs nurture effect.

The Mig29 is a super outdated plane from the 80s... last gasp of the Russian Cold War fighters meant to go up against F16s. The SU35 is Russia's best dogfighting fighter (arguably best in the world with the Rafale).

I don't know any of the weaponry taking place here, but I think Russia ultimately wins this war solely on their air power alone no? Don't get me wrong, Ukraine has all the propaganda and will to fight (which could be single most important aspect in war), but that new Russian fighter supposedly has insane technology. They should clearly wipe out Ukraine's crazy stock of....51 fighter jets quite easily based on only numbers alone.

 

[Foppberg]

I got an open mind so I don't mind reading or hearing info that might be cast off as rubbish from the mainstream eyes. I am not saying I ever believed his story, but wanted to mention what I heard. I still don't think he's entirely wrong, human condition dictates that we do NOT want to give up power, especially when a political party had full control of one of the biggest nations on earth for like four to five decades. That corruption gets passed on to the younger generation via the nature vs nurture effect.

Which I would say describes Putin's mentality quite well. Still clinging to the glory years of the USSR, when in actuality they're a shell of their former selves trying to keep up the illusion that they're still a global superpower.

I'll state it in hockey terms... it is like Jack Johnson single handedly beating the Lightning.

The Mig29 is a super outdated plane from the 80s... last gasp of the Russian Cold War fighters meant to go up against F16s. The SU35 is Russia's best dogfighting fighter (arguably best in the world with the Rafale).

So what you're saying is.. things aren't going swimmingly for Russia right now with their whole invasion thing.

 

[S E P H]

So what you're saying is.. things aren't going swimmingly for Russia right now with their whole invasion thing.

I think what could go in Ukraine's favour is that according to well unestablished rumours, a percentage of Russian soldiers aren't too thrilled to wanting to lose their life in a war they consider pointless (ejecting from the battlefield at the first sign of contact). I think a certain percentage of that is true IMO, they're probably looking at Ukraine and thinking, why the hell are we attacking such an insignificant nation?

 

[henchman21]

I don't know any of the weaponry taking place here, but I think Russia ultimately wins this war solely on their air power alone no? Don't get me wrong, Ukraine has all the propaganda and will to fight (which could be single most important aspect in war), but that new Russian fighter supposedly has insane technology. They should clearly wipe out Ukraine's crazy stock of....51 fighter jets quite easily based on only numbers alone.

I doubt the SU57 plays much of a role in this fight right away. If it extends, yeah I could see it playing an expanded role... simply because Russia would have to. The air superiority that Russia has almost certainly means with will eventually break down Ukraine... they can afford to throw numbers at it until they break and the technology advantage is vast. Which is why we are hearing calls from Ukraine for a NATO enforced no-fly zone. Ukraine can't win long-term without it. Frankly the NATO led by the US could control that airspace with a handful of F22/F35s from the US and Europe with Rafale and Typhoons. Russia doesn't have anything that could compete in those areas, especially the F22 that should still outpace the SU57 by a decent margin. Not gonna happen unless Ukraine is putting up a hell of a fight on the ground for months and has a legit chance at winning.

So what you're saying is.. things aren't going swimmingly for Russia right now with their whole invasion thing.

Not yet, but I wouldn't say anything so far really shows that Russia will lose or back off. Russia isn't foolish enough to think they had this solved with a day or two of fighting.

 

[Foppberg]

Not yet, but I wouldn't say anything so far really shows that Russia will lose or back off. Russia isn't foolish enough to think they had this solved with a day or two of fighting.

Fair. I have to imagine a big factor is how severe the sanctions hurt him and his pals too. But I also don't see a long term "win" being possible for Putin here.

 

[henchman21]

Fair. I have to imagine a big factor is how severe the sanctions hurt him and his pals too. But I also don't see a long term "win" being possible for Putin here.

I'm on the pessimistic side of this. The sanctions are really designed to make conditions bad enough in a country that there isn't military spending available to spend on wars... and hopefully local populace will rise up with discontent. I don't see that working for Russia... especially when oil and gas are not being touched at all and Russia is still allowed in international banking. Then you combine that with 600b in reserves, Russia can withstand a war with Ukraine for years. As long as Western Europe keeps the taps open on Russian gas, Russia has the funds to continue war. Being a practical dictatorship, the uprising won't happen easily. This isn't a little Arab Spring sort of thing that has to happen. This is a country that took 15-20+ years to really have it happen and even then it was the gov't that threw in the towel. Putin will never do that.

So with that said, I don't see a situation where Putin doesn't at least end up with Eastern Ukraine (I think that is his real angle... for now). There will be lots of fighting and that will be the 'compromise' given out. Ukraine won't have much of an option but to accept to even stay alive as a country. The West isn't invested enough to go to war with Russia over Eastern Ukraine. From the Putin will mend his wounds and start planning the movement to take over Moldova from there and then back for Western Ukraine. I'm certainly not an expert on East vs West relations, but Putin's playbook is pretty obvious with his other moves. Posture, use force, threaten more, offer a compromise that gets him half of what he really wants, let the West claim victory, circle back around when the finances and military have been built back up.

 

[Foppberg]

I'm on the pessimistic side of this. The sanctions are really designed to make conditions bad enough in a country that there isn't military spending available to spend on wars... and hopefully local populace will rise up with discontent. I don't see that working for Russia... especially when oil and gas are not being touched at all and Russia is still allowed in international banking. Then you combine that with 600b in reserves, Russia can withstand a war with Ukraine for years. As long as Western Europe keeps the taps open on Russian gas, Russia has the funds to continue war. Being a practical dictatorship, the uprising won't happen easily. This isn't a little Arab Spring sort of thing that has to happen. This is a country that took 15-20+ years to really have it happen and even then it was the gov't that threw in the towel. Putin will never do that.

So with that said, I don't see a situation where Putin doesn't at least end up with Eastern Ukraine (I think that is his real angle... for now). There will be lots of fighting and that will be the 'compromise' given out. Ukraine won't have much of an option but to accept to even stay alive as a country. The West isn't invested enough to go to war with Russia over Eastern Ukraine. From the Putin will mend his wounds and start planning the movement to take over Moldova from there and then back for Western Ukraine. I'm certainly not an expert on East vs West relations, but Putin's playbook is pretty obvious with his other moves. Posture, use force, threaten more, offer a compromise that gets him half of what he really wants, let the West claim victory, circle back around when the finances and military have been built back up.

Yeah, I think something similar will happen, but I don't see how this is a win long term, more like the delay of Russia circling the drain. Once he's gone Ukraine will abort, unless he manages to completely corrupt their government.

And even if he were to get all of Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus maybe? What then? He's not stupid enough to try to attack a NATO country. So what's it about? rebuilding his buffer against Western Europe? My biggest take away is he was terrified of Ukraine joining NATO.

 

[henchman21]

Yeah, I think something similar will happen, but I don't see how this is a win long term, more like the delay of Russia circling the drain. Once he's gone Ukraine will abort, unless he manages to completely corrupt their government.

And even if he were to get all of Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus maybe? What then? He's not stupid enough to try to attack a NATO country. So what's it about? rebuilding his buffer against Western Europe?

It is about his legacy within Russia. He was to be looked at in the same vein as Lenin, Khrushchev, and Brezhnev. He wants to be the guy to bring Russia back as a superpower... and to his credit, he has Russia on the path. Re-gaining a large chunk of Eastern Europe (I don't think people realize how big Ukraine is) sets the stage for him being the Russian heritage 'unifier.' In Russia at least. If he can do that without a World War like conflict, he'll be looked at favorably in Russia.

Now in the West he will always be a villain and he's earned every bit of it. To me he is much closer to Stalin than Khrushchev and in a very bad way. But Putin doesn't give a crap of how he's looked at in the West.

After him though, I could easily see Russia crumble. The successor fight will be a huge mess.

 

[Bonzai12]

Having talked to a lot of pro-communists, I agree with what Hench said. I think this is more about Putin's legacy than anything else. He recognizes that his reign is going to eventually end. I think it's the same light that China's looking at with their demographic issues that are on the horizon. Both China and Russia's window of opportunity is the next 10 years and then both of them will probably deteriorate a bit. I also think a lot of this is miscalculation on Putin's part. At some point here was a tipping point and Putin wasn't going to back down and be disgraced. Ultimately I think he got himself into a diplomatic pickle and had no choice to invade (or lose face).

 

[henchman21]

Hindsight 20/20 I don't think Putin was ever going to back down. Too much has been in motion for this for nearly a decade. I'd say the attention might have made him pull the trigger quicker, but this was always going to happen.

 

[Alienblood]

US has already stationed troops in Poland

That won't stop the Russians , they will steamroll through if they decide to

 

[Alienblood]

Yeah.. Moldova will be easy compared to Ukraine... if Putin gets Ukraine, Moldova happens within 18 months.

18 days

 

[5280]

That won't stop the Russians , they will steamroll through if they decide to

Bullshit. He ain’t f***ing with a NATO country. He’s not looking to start WWIII

 

[henchman21]

Bullshit. He ain’t f***ing with a NATO country. He’s not looking to start WWIII

I could see one of the Baltics eventually... but it won't even be a threat until after Ukraine and Moldova. Once he gets those, how the West has responded might get him to test the limits.

 

[MaKarter]

Good info from you guys.

My thoughts are Putin is starting a ground war with Ukraine but a cyber war with the U.S./ NATO.

I think the unsettling status of American politics makes this the perfect timing for Putin to make his moves. If nothing else, invading Ukraine gives Putin opportunities to hit the U.S. with cyber/infrastructure attacks which will be added onto the continuing political divide in America.

 

[Freudian]

Germany shutting down all their nuclear plants in an overreaction to Fukushima has meant they are completely dependent on Russian natural gas. They played themselves.

 

[henchman21]

Germany shutting down all their nuclear plants in an overreaction to Fukushima has meant they are completely dependent on Russian natural gas. They played themselves.

I'm as big of renewable tire pumper as there is... but we need to be investing heavily in nuclear, not shutting it down.

 

[5280]

I could see one of the Baltics eventually... but it won't even be a threat until after Ukraine and Moldova. Once he gets those, how the West has responded might get him to test the limits.

I just don’t see it. It would be complete suicide for him, his country and everything he has worked and fought for. Call Putin whatever you want - masochistic, egotistical whatever, but he’s not stupid.

This is all about gaining or at least regaining some leverage in the world, not starting a world war. Ukraine was a gray area he didn’t want to go to the West.

 

[henchman21]

I just don’t see it. It would be complete suicide for him, his country and everything he has worked and fought for. Call Putin whatever you want - masochistic, egotistical whatever, but he’s not stupid.

This is all about gaining or at least regaining some leverage in the world, not starting a world war. Ukraine was a gray area he didn’t want to go to the West.

IMO he's continuing to test the West and what they are willing to tolerate. I feel bad for Ukraine the West isn't doing more, but it seems Ukraine is just a matter of time before it falls. We know the next move. It is the move after that where the question comes in. NATO has been weakened over the past 6 years significantly... if the pace continues and the West continues to be tepid in response, I don't think it is out of the question. Frankly, neither do the Baltics... look at how they responded today vs the rest of NATO. There is a very stark contrast.

 

[S E P H]

That won't stop the Russians , they will steamroll through if they decide to

Poland has a pretty well-established anti-Russian feeling through at least half of the country before this ever started, especially in the older generation that went through communism. They've also had a ton of training from United States military for many decades now. I highly doubt we would ever win in a long war, but definitely make it tough for him.