The Athletic - 2018/19 NHL Farm system rankings

[Mrb1p]

Or all the rankings last year slept on the Bruins farm system and they're doing it again.

Okay... I like to think the Bruins have a good farm still too, but when Donato and Vaakanainen arent there, what will be left?

 

[sharks9]

Rankings are stupid. No publications thought anything of Heinen, Gryzlyk, Bjork, Kuraly, Debrusk or most of the current roster. Even Donato was thought of as a dime-a-dozen prospect by everyone here last year. Marchand never made a top-200 prospect list and he's a top-20 NHL player.

Everyone can point to players on their team that weren't ranked highly on these lists, it's not unique to Boston

 

[Mrb1p]

Nah it's more than that, you usually get at least 1 NHLer from the 7th every year, some years 2 or 3

Alright, looking at past drafts, it appears I was wrong. The turnaround is about one or two per year plus a few 100 games players. Wow, didnt expect that.

 

[Critical13]

I will be including their ranking in the comparison tables in our Organizational Rankings:
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...pect-rankings-2018-11.2526665/#post-148726749

 

[JohnLennon]

I think it goes without saying really. The Jets are goodbecause theyve recently graduated a bunch of high picks/good prospects. Now theyre going to be drafting later and have trouble stocking the cupboard again.

Exactly. That Under 23 list is insane, which reasonably leaves their prospect pool a little bit more limited considering their current competitiveness and recent graduates. While the Under-23 list is strong, their prospect pool dragged them down the rankings (logically so, they're in a great spot otherwise).

 

[BruinsBtn]

Everyone can point to players on their team that weren't ranked highly on these lists, it's not unique to Boston

Right. And the original point was that rankings are stupid. No one has any track record of producing any kind of ranking that has any value.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Right. And the original point was that rankings are stupid. No one has any track record of producing any kind of ranking that has any value.

So all the players that weren't picked highly, I guess you knew differently the whole time right?

These rankings are subjective, sure, you can say that, calling them stupid just makes you come off as a bitter person.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Nashville had a big drop, falling from 3rd last year to 26th this year. Boston went from 10th to 27th. Calgary being so low must be concerning for Flames fans, although they have a fairly young team. But similar to the Jets, they have some core pieces getting older (Giordano, Brodie vs Wheeler, Byfuglien)

I'm surprised he dropped them that much even accounting for them trading away Girard and Kamenev.

Tampa at 30 sticks out so far. I get his reasoning of weighing heavily to blue chip and A prospects, true NHL impact generally is only going to come from that group realistically. But over a bunch of other teams with few stars and even less depth (looking at you Pittsburgh) seems odd. We'll see how the rest shakes out.

 

[Animal]

I'm surprised he dropped them that much even accounting for them trading away Girard and Kamenev.

Tampa at 30 sticks out so far. I get his reasoning of weighing heavily to blue chip and A prospects, true NHL impact generally is only going to come from that group realistically. But over a bunch of other teams with few stars and even less depth (looking at you Pittsburgh) seems odd. We'll see how the rest shakes out.

I was surprised to see Nashville fall so much as well. I'm expecting Pittsburgh to be the next team listed.

 

[Mrb1p]

Pittsburgh should probably be last, of these teams at least. Maybe ahead of Washington.

I dont see Pittsburgh as having a better pool than Winnipeg, Boston, Tampa.

 

[BruinsBtn]

So all the players that weren't picked highly, I guess you knew differently the whole time right?

These rankings are subjective, sure, you can say that, calling them stupid just makes you come off as a bitter person.

On the contrary, lists have a consistent bias for near-term draft positioning while a 3rd or 4th round pick that's consistently showed that he's overachieved is rarely ranked correctly. There's a massive, proven bias towards draft positioning when 1-3 years out, but it should matter very little. It shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone that Danton Heinen was the 8th best rookie scorer last year but rankings couldn't get past that he was a 4th rounder.

It's completely illogical that a guy can go from being a 1st round pick in the last 15 games of his pre-draft play to a 3rd rounder, yet almost nothing he does afterward can help him reverse that in rankings like this.

Every year there are dozens of impact +3rd rounders who come into the NHL and how many guys drafted that low will you find in a top-100 list?

The rankings are little more than composite lists of where players were drafted folded over each other and adjusted by a few spots, usually with far too large of a weight on scoring.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

On the contrary, lists have a consistent bias for near-term draft positioning while a 3rd or 4th round pick that's consistently showed that he's overachieved is rarely ranked correctly. There's a massive, proven bias towards draft positioning when 1-3 years out, but it should matter very little. It shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone that Danton Heinen was the 8th best rookie scorer last year but rankings couldn't get past that he was a 4th rounder.

It's completely illogical that a guy can go from being a 1st round pick in the last 15 games of his pre-draft play to a 3rd rounder, yet almost nothing he does afterward can help him reverse that in rankings like this.

Every year there are dozens of impact +3rd rounders who come into the NHL and how many guys drafted that low will you find in a top-100 list?

The rankings are little more than composite lists of where players were drafted folded over each other and adjusted by a few spots, usually with far too large of a weight on scoring.

Name a dozen 3rd round picks from last year who made an impact? 1 rounders come with the pedigree, hence why they rank so high, the statistical likelihood of even a 2nd rounder being an impact player is very low. The rankings are based on this for very good reason. Again your bitter, I understand.

 

[Mrb1p]

Name a dozen 3rd round picks from last year who made an impact? 1 rounders come with the pedigree, hence why they rank so high, the statistical likelihood of even a 2nd rounder being an impact player is very low. The rankings are based on this for very good reason. Again your bitter, I understand.

An impact in the NHL? Or that dradtically upped their stocks?

 

[MardyBum]

4th worst? Will be a good bump in 3 to 4 years to see where the prospects in everyones pools are at.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Or all the rankings last year slept on the Bruins farm system and they're doing it again.

The same guy had Boston ranked 10th in the NHL a year ago.

 

[PittsburghHustlers]

I'm a bit surprised that the Pens aren't in the bottom five tbh.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Name a dozen 3rd round picks from last year who made an impact? 1 rounders come with the pedigree, hence why they rank so high, the statistical likelihood of even a 2nd rounder being an impact player is very low. The rankings are based on this for very good reason. Again your bitter, I understand.

Here are 14 from the Round 3 and beyond:

• Heinen
• Butcher
• Kerfoot
• Bratt
• Hudon
• Gourde
• Grzelcyk
  
• Coleman
• Iafallo
• Leipsic
• Kuraly
• Djoos
• Bjork
• Stephenson

All those guys were in the top-50 of rookie scorers. About 20 of the top 50 were picked in the 3rd round and beyond.

 

[BruinsBtn]

The same guy had Boston ranked 10th in the NHL a year ago.

Which is laughably bad with a list including:

McAvoy
DeBrusk
Heinen
Kuraly
Bjork
Grzelcyk
Subban
Czarnik
Frederic
Forsbacka Karlsson
Vaakanainen
Zboril
Cehlarik
Senyshyn
Lauzon
Lindgren
Studnicka
Donato
And a bunch more.

The bolded are NHLers already. Name 9 teams a year ago that had anything like that?

 

[Captain Mountain]

Which is laughably bad with a list including:

McAvoy
DeBrusk
Heinen
Kuraly
Bjork
Grzelcyk
Subban
Czarnik
Frederic
Forsbacka Karlsson
Vaakanainen
Zboril
Cehlarik
Senyshyn
Lauzon
Lindgren
Studnicka
Donato
And a bunch more.

The bolded are NHLers already. Name 9 teams a year ago that had anything like that?

... Is this supposed to look like a list that deserves to be higher than 10th?

 

[weaponomega]

Okay... I like to think the Bruins have a good farm still too, but when Donato and Vaakanainen arent there, what will be left?

New prospects to take their place that have emerged that have been overlooked.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Here are 14 from the Round 3 and beyond:

• Heinen
• Butcher
• Kerfoot
• Bratt
• Hudon
• Gourde
• Grzelcyk
  
• Coleman
• Iafallo
• Leipsic
• Kuraly
• Djoos
• Bjork
• Stephenson

All those guys were in the top-50 of rookie scorers. About 20 of the top 50 were picked in the 3rd round and beyond.

Fair enough, it's still subjective, for instance Leipsic was drafted in 2012, who could have predicted at any time that as a 24 year old he would make an impact.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Which is laughably bad with a list including:

McAvoy
DeBrusk
Heinen
Kuraly
Bjork
Grzelcyk
Subban
Czarnik
Frederic
Forsbacka Karlsson
Vaakanainen
Zboril
Cehlarik
Senyshyn
Lauzon
Lindgren
Studnicka
Donato
And a bunch more.

The bolded are NHLers already. Name 9 teams a year ago that had anything like that?

Quite a few of those guys are 22-25 years old and made very, very little impact. Good work by Bruins to bring in some rookies and depth guys, but it's not really a hugely impressive list. It's worth a lot more to have 2-3 high caliber prospects than to have 10 older prospects that might be able to play some games.

 

[Mrb1p]

New prospects to take their place that have emerged that have been overlooked.

But every team has those.

 

[Mrb1p]

Which is laughably bad with a list including:

McAvoy
DeBrusk
Heinen
Kuraly
Bjork
Grzelcyk
Subban
Czarnik
Frederic
Forsbacka Karlsson
Vaakanainen
Zboril
Cehlarik
Senyshyn
Lauzon
Lindgren
Studnicka
Donato
And a bunch more.

The bolded are NHLers already. Name 9 teams a year ago that had anything like that?

Bjork, Grezlcyk, Czarnik, Subban, Kuraly and Donato are NHLers ? Lets tone it down a bit there.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Quite a few of those guys are 22-25 years old and made very, very little impact. Good work by Bruins to bring in some rookies and depth guys, but it's not really a hugely impressive list. It's worth a lot more to have 2-3 high caliber prospects than to have 10 older prospects that might be able to play some games.

Uhhhh, the top 3 guys are high caliber prospects.