The Armchair GM Thread - Part CVIII

[Addison Rae]

Sign me up for the full rebuild, I was one of the doubters early on but this team has epically failed at the "retooling on the fly" module.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Doing what the Canucks are doing is going to turn the team into the Flames/Leafs of old, where we end up having mediocre season after mediocre season. With our recent management purges, I'm also starting to get concerned that we're heading for Oilers-laughing stock territory anyway.

Not necessarily. The problem with the Leafs and Flames (more Leafs), is that management didn't recognize that their core was finished and kept trading high end picks for veteran players with the expectation that they could possibly 'go the distance' come playoff time (i.e. similar to what we did in 2013 when we idiotically traded for Derek Roy).

As far as Vancouver goes, I think Benning and Linden clearly see that this is a team in transition, and they have stated as such. Sure, they have given up 2nd round picks, but they've been geared towards 22 year old kids who they feel are on the verge of taking the next level (i.e. Vey, Baertschi).

Those teams got their top prospects because they went through years of hardships and rebuilding. That's how they got their stars to begin with

What you are saying is 100% correct, but again- there is significant risk involved, and for every Chicago Blackhawks that emerge, there are 3-4x more failure/disaster stories.

I would much rather follow the Detroit/San Jose model where you consistently field a competitive team, while re-tooling on the fly if necessary. At some point, perhaps you get lucky like the Flyers did and draft a Claude Giroux in the 20's.

Speaking of 'getting lucky' with later round picks, Anze Kopitar wasn't a Top 10 pick with LA right?

You don't necessarily have to have the 1st-3rd overall pick in a draft to build a cup contender. I believe there are a number of ways to "skin the cat."

 

[DL44]

Just doing a general salary structure...

5 - 7 -6
3 - 4 - 4
2 - 3 - 2
1.4 - 2 - 1 / 1

Forwards = $41.4 mil

5- 7
4 - 4
3 - 1 / 1

Defense = $25 mil

4 / 1

Goalies = $5 mil

22 players = $71.4 mil.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Sign me up for the full rebuild, I was one of the doubters early on but this team has epically failed at the "retooling on the fly" module.

Lets atleast see how this season goes before passing judgement. As of this writing, all we've seen from Linden/Benning is as follows:

1) A winning atmosphere in Utica.
2) More kids have been inserted into the line-up
3) A delivered promise on making the playoffs in 2014/2015
4) No disgruntled players on the teams, and no flakes with questionable attitudes.

If the Canucks struggle this season, we have Vrbata and Hamhuis in our back pockets to facilitate a move for one or two 1st round picks.

I don't see this "failure" that you talk about.

 

[CanaFan]

How much value?

There's the line of thought that Edmonton had, effectively, no mentors/productive NHLers ahead of their kids and left them to sink or swim, mostly sink, for the last howevermany years.

On the other hand, I would be very curious to see the result. Hoo boy. Full tankage in Vancouver. It would be interesting, at least.

Everyone uses Edmonton as the boogeyman when arguing against rebuilding but fact is there are more examples of rebuilds in the 2-4 year range than Edmonton's 10+ years.

Of course there are no guarantees with any strategy and rebuilds can go sideways, but the alternative is what? Make first round and lose in 5-6 games like we've done since 2012? I feel we've done that route. Time to try something different.

 

[DL44]

Lets atleast see how this season goes before passing judgement. As of this writing, all we've seen from Linden/Benning is as follows:

1) A winning atmosphere in Utica.
2) More kids have been inserted into the line-up
3) A delivered promise on making the playoffs in 2014/2015
4) No disgruntled players on the teams, and no flakes with questionable attitudes.

If the Canucks struggle this season, we have Vrbata and Hamhuis in our back pockets to facilitate a move for one or two 1st round picks.

I don't see this "failure" that you talk about.

But what about all the stuff that could go wrong?
You should list the things that could wrong along with the things that actually happened.
You know.. just to be fair.

 

[CM-]

That is an environment you want to avoid. That's not a roster where you can develop good young players. Every night is going to be a struggle and guys like Vey or McCann are likely to throw in the towel than to compete. Imagine being owned on every board battle, faceoff (outside of Horvat). You need veterans to guide the team. Vrbata is the only proven top 6 there and surely not enough.

While not everyone develops in that situation you could in theory sign UFA's to short term higher cash deals to assist in protecting the ones that need to develop with protection.

The Oilers problem was less about developing most of the prospects but the fact they continually picked high skilled wingers (and yes they did mess up with RNH rushing him to NHL where he messed up his shoulder.

I'm of the opinion Horvat develops better by being thrown in the fire and working his way out.

But even if we had a roster of say:
(Using Sedins to NSH trade as the example).

Bonino-UFA Signing(ie.This year best C was Vermette)-Burrows
Higgins-Horvat-Vrbata
Baertschi-Wilson-Virtanen
Prust-Vey-Dorsett

Team would be top 5 in the draft. Which would help hopefully we could get some Oiler luck and get a 1st overall for the first time.

 

[Horse McHindu]

But what about all the stuff that could go wrong?
You should list the things that could wrong along with the things that actually happened.
You know.. just to be fair.

Like I said - if this season turns out to be a train wreck, we have some insurance in our back pockets.

-Vrbata will easily fetch you a 1st rounder.
-Hamhuis will likely stay here, but even he would fetch you a 1st rounder.
-Burrows and Hansen easily land you a 2nd each.
-Higgins would land you a low 2nd or high 3rd.

If I understand the "Benning" model correctly, my guess is that Vrbata and Higgins will be used as trade bait if this team is out of it come trade deadline.

Worst case scenario = the Canucks having at least two first round picks come 2016.........which is not really a "worst case scenario."

 

[y2kcanucks]

Not necessarily. The problem with the Leafs and Flames (more Leafs), is that management didn't recognize that their core was finished and kept trading high end picks for veteran players with the expectation that they could possibly 'go the distance' come playoff time.

Wrong.

Between 2005-2011 (7 drafts) the Leafs had 6 1st round picks, 5 2nd round picks, and 6 3rd round picks.

The Flames had 6 1st round picks, 3 2nd round picks, and 9 3rd round picks.

Yes some picks were dealt, but not as many as you would think (one 1st per team in that time frame).

Management hasn't recognized that our core is finished either, and continues to keep veteran players around, and has recently shown a willingness to carry a veteran team and deal away younger players (Kassian, Lack).

As far as Vancouver goes, I think Benning and Linden clearly see that this is a team in transition, and they have stated as such. Sure, they have given up 2nd round picks, but they've been geared towards 22 year old kids who they feel are on the verge of taking the next level (i.e. Vey, Baertschi).

If we're a team in transition then why are we keeping an older, statistically worse goalie than the younger, cheaper guy we just gave away for peanuts? If we're a team in transition then why did we deal away a young 25 year old power forward for a 31 year old pending UFA 4th liner? And yes, we have traded away a lot of draft picks in recent years (2nds and 3rds). 2nd round pick for Vey who likely was going to be lost to waivers by LA anyway was a waste. A 3rd rounder for Dorsett? Yikes.

What you are saying is 100% correct, but again- there is significant risk involved, and for every Chicago Blackhawks that emerge, there are 3-4x more failure/disaster stories.

I would much rather follow the Detroit/San Jose model where you consistently field a competitive team, while re-tooling on the fly if necessary. At some point, perhaps you get lucky like the Flyers did and draft a Claude Giroux in the 20's.

Speaking of 'getting lucky' with later round picks, Anze Kopitar wasn't a Top 10 pick with LA right?

You don't necessarily have to have the 1st-3rd overall pick in a draft to build a cup contender. I believe there are a number of ways to "skin the cat."

Detroit has top notch management, and top notch scouts. We don't. To follow their "model" requires us having pieces in the organization that we do not have. You can say you want to follow that model all you like, but it isn't realistic.

Every recent Cup team has had a top 5 pick on their team, except for Detroit who had a 1st ballot hall of famer in Nik Lidstrom. Do you have a proposal of how to get one of those?

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Those teams got their top prospects because they went through years of hardships and rebuilding. That's how they got their stars to begin with.

We had an opportunity to develop players, but unlike Chicago who gave Saad a chance to play with Toews and Kane, we don't create roster spots for our prospects. We send them down to "overcook" for some stupid reason, even if they look like they deserve a shot. Even this year we have a veteran team and no spots for prospects to come into the lineup up front.

Doing what the Canucks are doing is going to turn the team into the Flames/Leafs of old, where we end up having mediocre season after mediocre season. With our recent management purges, I'm also starting to get concerned that we're heading for Oilers-laughing stock territory anyway.

Benning and company seem to be open to the idea of making room for younger players if they prove to be ready, they did it for Horvat.

Unless the Sedins ask for a trade there really isn't any incentive to trade them and no incentive to go full rebuild.

If players like Horvat, McCann, Virtanen, Cassels, etc are in key roles come the end of the Sedins contracts and the Canucks suck for a 1 or 2 the team will be a much better position to start building up than it would be if they trade the Sedins, go full rebuild and ruin the "winning/competitive" culture.

Knowing when and how to start the rebuild is very hard. Rebuilds are painful no matter how you do them and need patience. I'd rather be patient now keep a more competitive attidude/culture than risk becoming like the Oilers and Panthers. The key when not burning the roster to the ground is to make sure that there are young players coming up every season and giving the fans hope for the future.

If Baertschi and/or Virtanen can come in and play well this season as well as seeing someone like Corrado become a full time NHLer the Canucks future will start to look better, specially if Gaunce can push his way into a role by the end of the season.

If Baertschi/Virtanen can't make the jump then there will be some cause for concern.

 

[PM]

Everyone uses Edmonton as the boogeyman when arguing against rebuilding but fact is there are more examples of rebuilds in the 2-4 year range than Edmonton's 10+ years.

It's even funnier considering they just got a generational talent and are turning the corner. The key to sucking is hiring competent people once you are done sucking.

 

[y2kcanucks]

We should have dumped Vrbata, Higgins, and not acquired Prust this offseason. Those 3 spots could have been taken up by Virtanen, Baertschi/Kenins (whoever you didn't have in our lineup with our current group), and someone like Grenier or even McCann. And who knows, maybe Shinkaruk plays his way on to the team?

 

[Samzilla]

Every recent Cup team has had a top 5 pick on their team, except for Detroit who had a 1st ballot hall of famer in Nik Lidstrom. Do you have a proposal of how to get one of those?

we did just draft zhukenov, the next datsyuk, amirite

 

[CanaFan]

It's even funnier considering they just got a generational talent and are turning the corner. The key to sucking is hiring competent people once you are done sucking.

Ya that is certainly worth noting. Points to the notion that they "tanked" as opposed to "rebuilt". I mean, after their 3rd consecutive 1OA a competent management group would have focussed on adding some vets and leadership to stabilize their young core. Instead they continued to pursue young one-dimensional scorers, which they didn't really need. Seems they had McD on their radar even then and didn't want to get too good before 2015. Now that they have him? Show the scouts the door, sign UFAs, get a goalie, etc. Mission accomplished.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Everyone uses Edmonton as the boogeyman when arguing against rebuilding but fact is there are more examples of rebuilds in the 2-4 year range than Edmonton's 10+ years.

Of course there are no guarantees with any strategy and rebuilds can go sideways, but the alternative is what? Make first round and lose in 5-6 games like we've done since 2012? I feel we've done that route. Time to try something different.

How many of these teams got rid of top level talent and in essence got rid of any sort of leadership/culture?

 

[Skirbs1011]

Like I said - if this season turns out to be a train wreck, we have some insurance in our back pockets.

-Vrbata will easily fetch you a 1st rounder.
-Hamhuis will likely stay here, but even he would fetch you a 1st rounder.
-Burrows and Hansen easily land you a 2nd each.
-Higgins would land you a low 2nd or high 3rd.

If I understand the "Benning" model correctly, my guess is that Vrbata and Higgins will be used as trade bait if this team is out of it come trade deadline.

Worst case scenario = the Canucks having at least two first round picks come 2016.........which is not really a "worst case scenario."

So keep the Sedins becuse we need mentors. but lets ship out 5 guys who are mentors as well. Why cant we Trade Sedin, Sedin, Vrbata and Hamhuis. Keep Burrows, Higgins, Hansen as well as players like Tanev, Edler, Dorsett, and Prust as mentors. And we Can use the 20-25 Million in Capspace to fill the holes necessary??

 

[thepuckmonster]

We should have dumped Vrbata, Higgins, and not acquired Prust this offseason. Those 3 spots could have been taken up by Virtanen, Baertschi/Kenins (whoever you didn't have in our lineup with our current group), and someone like Grenier or even McCann. And who knows, maybe Shinkaruk plays his way on to the team?

Off season hasn't ended today, you know.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Off season hasn't ended today, you know.

Between July 3 and the start of last season there were only 2 trades made in the entire league.

Sure it's possible something gets done, but does it seem all that likely?

 

[DL44]

Off season hasn't ended today, you know.

And he didn't even mention Boeser or Cassels or Subban as roster possibilities.

 

[Addison Rae]

Lets atleast see how this season goes before passing judgement. As of this writing, all we've seen from Linden/Benning is as follows:

1) A winning atmosphere in Utica.
2) More kids have been inserted into the line-up
3) A delivered promise on making the playoffs in 2014/2015
4) No disgruntled players on the teams, and no flakes with questionable attitudes.

If the Canucks struggle this season, we have Vrbata and Hamhuis in our back pockets to facilitate a move for one or two 1st round picks.

I don't see this "failure" that you talk about.

they gutted the bridge core, absloutely gave them away for peanuts. botched the ability to add a puck mover in the Ducks deals with Kesler. they've absloutely botched everything possible to retool on the fly.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

We should have dumped Vrbata, Higgins, and not acquired Prust this offseason. Those 3 spots could have been taken up by Virtanen, Baertschi/Kenins (whoever you didn't have in our lineup with our current group), and someone like Grenier or even McCann. And who knows, maybe Shinkaruk plays his way on to the team?

You talked about Saad, he wasn't handed a spot, once he played his way onto the roster the Hawks made room for him.

Grenier, Baertschi, Kenins, Virtanen, etc all need to take the next step and play their way onto the team, when they do the Canucks will find a way to keep them on the roster.

 

[thepuckmonster]

Between July 3 and the start of last season there were only 2 trades made in the entire league.

Sure it's possible something gets done, but does it seem all that likely?

A lot of things this year have gone completely different than last. We have more free agents available of actual quality on July 3 than last year. The cap situation is making move timing very different this season.

 

[y2kcanucks]

You talked about Saad, he wasn't handed a spot, once he played his way onto the roster the Hawks made room for him.

Grenier, Baertschi, Kenins, Virtanen, etc all need to take the next step and play their way onto the team, when they do the Canucks will find a way to keep them on the roster.

Kenins earned his spot last year.

Baertschi needs a roster spot or else we lose him to waivers.

Grenier earned a look.

Virtanen is physically ready and doesn't have much left to learn in junior.

How do we make room for these guys?

 

[y2kcanucks]

A lot of things this year have gone completely different than last. We have more free agents available of actual quality on July 3 than last year. The cap situation is making move timing very different this season.

More quality free agents left makes it even less likely that we can dump someone to clear cap space and open up a roster spot.

 

[CanaFan]

How many of these teams got rid of top level talent and in essence got rid of any sort of leadership/culture?

Probably most of them, whether intentionally (trade) or unintentionally (retirement, UFA) which is what drives these teams to the bottom. Point is the Sedins are going to leave eventually, whether in 3 yrs when their contracts expire or earlier if we decide (and are able to) move them. The difference is merely the team's time horizon.

Besides the Sedins aren't the only source of veteran leadership, though they certainly are a big part of it. The question is whether this leadership outweighs the assets and higher draft position that would come with trading them. I can understand the argument for both positions but to me the assets/draft position is the more significant.