OT: The Arizona Coyotes Lounge XX - The 20th Anniversary Edition

[MIGs Dog]

Take a look at Sweden, New look at the Countries surrounding it. Now compare Canada to US. No idea how one couldn't conclude restrictions work.

Lots of variables to consider. Peru instituted some of the strictest lockdowns on the planet, yet they have the highest death rate per capita? Why? One reason suggested is that its health care system was not prepared. They have also been slow with vaccinating the populace.

Covid: Why has Peru been so badly hit?

 

[MIGs Dog]

The health of the population should also be considered. BMI seems to be the biggest contributing factor when it comes to COVID outcomes.

In the U.S., the percent of adults aged 20 and over who are overweight or obese is 73.6% (2017-2018)

In Canada it's 61%

12% higher is a big number, particularly considering the enormous difference in population.

 

[Jamieh]

Lots of variables to consider. Peru instituted some of the strictest lockdowns on the planet, yet they have the highest death rate per capita? Why? One reason suggested is that its health care system was not prepared. They have also been slow with vaccinating the populace.

Covid: Why has Peru been so badly hit?

Sweden has 5 times the deaths at minimum of it's neighbors and was the only Country in the region not to have strict restrictions. I can only lead you to water.....

 

[Jamieh]

The health of the population should also be considered. BMI seems to be the biggest contributing factor when it comes to COVID outcomes.

In the U.S., the percent of adults aged 20 and over who are overweight or obese is 73.6% (2017-2018)

In Canada it's 61%

12% higher is a big number, particularly considering the enormous difference in population.

Age has-been the biggest decider of outcome in Canada. 60% of deaths are from the over 80 age group with another 20% between 70 and 80.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Sweden has 5 times the deaths at minimum of it's neighbors and was the only Country in the region not to have strict restrictions. I can only lead you to water.....

Lots of possible reasons. Expand to all of Europe and you will find that France, Portugal, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Hungary, Montenegro, Macedonia, Czech Rep., Romania, Croatia, Slovakia, Gibraltar, San Marino, Lithuania, Slovenia, Poland, Latvia, Belgium, Moldova, Ukraine, Italy, the UK, Russia, Greece, Spain, Austria, and.....Kosovo all have a higher death rate than Sweden.

 

[SniperHF]

See the second plot in Post #987. It's been only about a week, but it's hard to argue that the sudden, sharp rise in hospitalization has anything to do with the Delta variant, which has been around for months.

I do not buy this interpretation. Delta being around for months doesn't mean it cannot cause rises in hospitalizations. Due to seasonal patterns the north east was delta wave was ramping up going back to early December. With holiday travel increasing spread and an increase of in home transmission due to the weather, it was always a recipe for a serious Delta wave in places that didn't get hit hard in the summer.

UK data, which is substantially better than ours, has cases exploding but hospitalizations not so much. The UK technical reports are great data and their Omicron wave is in earnest based on genetic testing of test results. I don't believe the US to be especially vulnerable to Omicron for some reason, so I just don't buy that we're seeing hospitalizations out of it at extremes when other countries are not.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Age has-been the biggest decider of outcome in Canada. 60% of deaths are from the over 80 age group with another 20% between 70 and 80.

Chances of death increase with age for EVERY illness. When you look at people in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s that are succumbing to the virus, there is an obvious trend with BMI.

 

[Jamieh]

Chances of death increase with age for EVERY illness. When you look at people in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s that are succumbing to the virus, there is an obvious trend with BMI.

We don't have many of those to look at here in Canada. Restrictions and vaccines have done their job.

 

[Tom Polakis]

Chances of death increase with age for EVERY illness. When you look at people in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s that are succumbing to the virus, there is an obvious trend with BMI.

Of course body mass and other health issues result in more premature deaths, but that's not particularly relevant to this discussion, which is what can be done to improve the situation in the short term.

 

[Tom Polakis]

I do not buy this interpretation. Delta being around for months doesn't mean it cannot cause rises in hospitalizations. Due to seasonal patterns the north east was delta wave was ramping up going back to early December. With holiday travel increasing spread and an increase of in home transmission due to the weather, it was always a recipe for a serious Delta wave in places that didn't get hit hard in the summer.

UK data, which is substantially better than ours, has cases exploding but hospitalizations not so much. The UK technical reports are great data and their Omicron wave is in earnest based on genetic testing of test results. I don't believe the US to be especially vulnerable to Omicron for some reason, so I just don't buy that we're seeing hospitalizations out of it at extremes when other countries are not.

Yes, I have been mystified by the sharp upward trend in the U.S. that wasn't seen elsewhere. While I'm in the "cautious" camp, I don't revel in bad news. I only want to understand what the data is saying. Here's the same pair of plots using only the past 12 weeks on the x axis. Again, hospitalizations track pretty well with case counts, but maybe this past week has only been an anomaly. We will know soon enough.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

Maybe, but hard to prove. Have lockdown societies faired better than the alternative? .

Not just hard but impossible to prove, and hard to even measure ("on a scale of 1 to 10, what is your level of anxiety about...?') But some people like to use that to their advantage. "The mental health aspect is worse! Prove me wrong!'

 

[MIGs Dog]

Of course body mass and other health issues result in more premature deaths, but that's not particularly relevant to this discussion, which is what can be done to improve the situation in the short term.

It's relevant when comparing outcomes and determining if lockdowns and other draconian measures are effective. Maybe they are, or maybe different outcomes can be attributed to health status, or health care effectiveness, or population density, or climate, etc. Lots of variables to consider.

Scientists are studying why COVID mortality is so low in Africa, where health care is below that of western nations and vaccines are scarce. Part of the reason is believed to be a lower age demographic, but obesity rates in Africa are also substantially lower than in North America.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

See the second plot in Post #987. It's been only about a week, but it's hard to argue that the sudden, sharp rise in hospitalization has anything to do with the Delta variant, which has been around for months.

Arizona is saying "what spike?" because we haven't seen it *yet*...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...cases-deaths/?itid=sn_coronavirus_1/&state=US

Show all states...

Almost every state east of the Mississippi River has seen dramatic spikes in December, while western states largely haven't. The hope is that this will follow S. Africa, sudden dramatic spike immediately followed by precipitous fall, but...other countries don't have the level of stu...bborn we have, either. Simultaneous strength and weakness, for differing reasons.

 

[cobra427]

Of course body mass and other health issues result in more premature deaths, but that's not particularly relevant to this discussion, which is what can be done to improve the situation in the short term.

Covid has been here for 18 months+. In that time, a healthier lifestyle would pay benefits, it helps even in the short term, a few weeks to a month or two for everyone. This is what should have been pushed from the beginning, the healthier the host, the more enormous your odds are to beat covid and stay out of the hospital. The data is saying that if you are older, overweight, and have other health issues, you might be hospitalized and die from Covid.

 

[Jakey53]

Covid has been here for 18 months+. In that time, a healthier lifestyle would pay benefits, it helps even in the short term, a few weeks to a month or two for everyone. This is what should have been pushed from the beginning, the healthier the host, the more enormous your odds are to beat covid and stay out of the hospital. The data is saying that if you are older, overweight, and have other health issues, you might be hospitalized and die from Covid.

Do you really think the vast majority of the population will change their eating habits after years of eating junk food? Not going to happen, no matter how much all organizations push it. We have to realize covid is with us like the flu, so we have to live with it and cope the best we can. The biggest problem is all types of media keep on talking about it.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

This is my guess - we are undercounting COVID infections by about a quarter as positive home tests are not reported. That would mean to me that we are overestimating severity of the strain by about a quarter. Still, with the R-naught of Omicron approaching that of Measles, so many people will get infected that the health care system really, truly is in danger of getting overrun.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

Do you really think the vast majority of the population will change their eating habits after years of eating junk food? Not going to happen, no matter how much all organizations push it. We have to realize covid is with us like the flu, so we have to live with it and cope the best we can. The biggest problem is all types of media keep on talking about it.

Well, that's one vote for the ostrich. COVID is like the flu of 1918 which killed 50-100 million people. It is far more lethal than any flu strain in my lifetime. As an aside, we basically have to live with the flu, and measles, and in the Mid East and North Africa polio, because of vaccine refusal.

 

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

I wasn't feeling well at the end of October. Started on Thursday afternoon and I was off of work for the rest of the weekend. Come Sunday and I was still not right, achy, low-grade fever, fatigued. Mrs. GAFP said that this isn't like you so I stayed home from work on Monday and got Covid tested. It came back positive. Stayed home the rest of the week, took some Motrin when I felt lousy and went back to work the following Tuesday. I did lose my sense of smell for a while. None of what happened to me should have overwhelmed the health care system. I think we're at the point of where, if you feel sick, stay home.

 

[MIGs Dog]

positive home tests are not reported.

We also are not counting the millions that contract the virus and are never tested.

 

[MIGs Dog]

I wasn't feeling well at the end of October. Started on Thursday afternoon and I was off of work for the rest of the weekend. Come Sunday and I was still not right, achy, low-grade fever, fatigued. Mrs. GAFP said that this isn't like you so I stayed home from work on Monday and got Covid tested. It came back positive. Stayed home the rest of the week, took some Motrin when I felt lousy and went back to work the following Tuesday. I did lose my sense of smell for a while. None of what happened to me should have overwhelmed the health care system. I think we're at the point of where, if you feel sick, stay home.

My son tested positive and his employer forced him to stay home for 2 weeks without pay. For many, this is why they go to work sick; can't afford to miss work.

 

[cobra427]

Do you really think the vast majority of the population will change their eating habits after years of eating junk food? Not going to happen, no matter how much all organizations push it. We have to realize covid is with us like the flu, so we have to live with it and cope the best we can. The biggest problem is all types of media keep on talking about it.

Not everyone will change, but I would like to see a healthy lifestyle pushed as hard as vaccines are these days. Fauci/Trump/Biden/Bueler, anyone pitching a healthy lifestyle would be better than it is now.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

I wasn't feeling well at the end of October. Started on Thursday afternoon and I was off of work for the rest of the weekend. Come Sunday and I was still not right, achy, low-grade fever, fatigued. Mrs. GAFP said that this isn't like you so I stayed home from work on Monday and got Covid tested. It came back positive. Stayed home the rest of the week, took some Motrin when I felt lousy and went back to work the following Tuesday. I did lose my sense of smell for a while. None of what happened to me should have overwhelmed the health care system. I think we're at the point of where, if you feel sick, stay home.

You're not getting it. With so many getting infected right now, even the very low percentage who need the hospital is a large enough real number to overwhelm the healthcare system. I'm glad that you were one of those many who just had mild symptoms.

 

[Edenjung]

Happy new year Guys.

I know i am 1h and 12min late. But i did Not have Internet Outside.
So my greetings are a Bit late.

And Drunk.

But nonetheless, i Hope you Guys and Girls and whatever have a great year.

Kind regards,

Edenjung

(From Lübeck Germany)

 

[XX]

I wasn't feeling well at the end of October. Started on Thursday afternoon and I was off of work for the rest of the weekend. Come Sunday and I was still not right, achy, low-grade fever, fatigued. Mrs. GAFP said that this isn't like you so I stayed home from work on Monday and got Covid tested. It came back positive. Stayed home the rest of the week, took some Motrin when I felt lousy and went back to work the following Tuesday. I did lose my sense of smell for a while. None of what happened to me should have overwhelmed the health care system. I think we're at the point of where, if you feel sick, stay home.

Sister came down with Delta in Florida and would have died without hospital intervention due to low blood oxygen levels. She initially resisted but it became clear her breathing wasn't improving or even stabilizing, so they went. Two awesome boys nearly motherless because their parents were skeptical of seeking care (despite having the insurance). One size absolutely does not fit all.

 

[lanky]

Of course body mass and other health issues result in more premature deaths, but that's not particularly relevant to this discussion, which is what can be done to improve the situation in the short term.

You're too quick to brush off the personal health angle. If our leaders had been clear about the importance of taking care of ourselves then a lot of progress could have been made. They've been telling us to stay inside, remain sedentary for all this time. That's the worst advice. And in some areas it's been forced.
If they instead encouraged us to get outside, jog with a friend, plant a veggie patch, let our skin make some vitamin D with the sun, then the outcome would have been way better on the covid death front, on the mental health front and on general physical health.
Our leaders didn't push that approach. I don't think it's because they didn't have the info available. Sometimes what's best for society and what's best for those in power are not the same thing.