The American Dream Phil Kessel: Trade talk part II

[LEAFSIN4]

Kessel, Malkin, and Crosby are all going to be top 5 in scoring next season (barring injuries).

I'm hopping on the Pittsburgh bandwagon so I can watch some good hockey while the Leafs rebuild, but man it hurt watching the video of him putting your jersey on. Still can't believe we traded Phil Kessel.

Enjoy him. He's a really good guy who only cares about scoring goals, and he does it well. That powerplay is going to be lethal next season.

 

[66-30-33]

Kessel, Malkin, and Crosby are all going to be top 5 in scoring next season (barring injuries).

I'm hopping on the Pittsburgh bandwagon so I can watch some good hockey while the Leafs rebuild, but man it hurt watching the video of him putting your jersey on. Still can't believe we traded Phil Kessel.

Enjoy him. He's a really good guy who only cares about scoring goals, and he does it well. That powerplay is going to be lethal next season.

Crosby: I'M OPEN!!
Kessel: I got this ****!
Kunitz: Puck hog, go back to Toronto!
***Kessel shoots and scores***

 

[Ugene Magic]

Well it would be the first time that he ever did it.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kesseph01.html

Granted, he has never played with a Crosby or Malkin, but still, people should be thrilled if he tops 30. 25 is perfectly acceptable in the current NHL where only 15 scored more than 30 last year and the leading point getter in the season had 87 points.

I suspect that Kessel will have a great year.

I also expect that at least half here will be disappointed in that year.

First because of ridiculous expectations virtually impossible to meet.

Second because Crosby and Malkin (and Jagr, Mario, and on and on) have spoiled us to what makes a great goal scorer. Most teams have not had a guy even like Kessel on their team in their memory let alone a Crosby or Malkin or Mario or Jagr in their primes. That sort of skews our ability to be rational with the expectations game.

Transitions are not always easy for players. I'll definitely accept a 25+/35+ for a 60+ point transition season from him. Even a little less.

 

[steveg]

Well it would be the first time that he ever did it.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kesseph01.html

Granted, he has never played with a Crosby or Malkin, but still, people should be thrilled if he tops 30. 25 is perfectly acceptable in the current NHL where only 15 scored more than 30 last year and the leading point getter in the season had 87 points.

I suspect that Kessel will have a great year.

I also expect that at least half here will be disappointed in that year.

First because of ridiculous expectations virtually impossible to meet.

Second because Crosby and Malkin (and Jagr, Mario, and on and on) have spoiled us to what makes a great goal scorer. Most teams have not had a guy even like Kessel on their team in their memory let alone a Crosby or Malkin or Mario or Jagr in their primes. That sort of skews our ability to be rational with the expectations game.

While I understand and appreciate what you are saying, and agree with you to a degree, I do not think 25 is "perfectly acceptable" for Kessel, on either Sid's or Geno's wing, assuming he plays something close to a full season. Low 20's goal man James Neal consistently put up goals at a roughly 40-per-year pace on Geno's wing; no reason for me to think that a healthy Kessel isn't a lock for 30-35...and at least a reasonable bet for 40.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

While I understand and appreciate what you are saying, and agree with you to a degree, I do not think 25 is "perfectly acceptable" for Kessel, on either Sid's or Geno's wing, assuming he plays something close to a full season. Low 20's goal man James Neal consistently put up goals at a roughly 40-per-year pace on Geno's wing; no reason for me to think that a healthy Kessel isn't a lock for 30-35...and at least a reasonable bet for 40.

James Neal hit 40 goals with the Pens once. Hell ever. Every other year of his career he potted in the low to mid 20's in goals. Mostly toward the lower end of the 20 goal mark.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8471707

It is not fair to do the 'pace for' game when over his last two years because of injuries and stupidity he could only be on the ice what averages out to be 49 games a year. He was only one the ice a few more games for the Predators last year and has not come close to a full season now for three years. If you can not stay on the ice you are not going to score goals.

But let's play that game anyways however silly given his recent history of being unable to give you more than a little over half a year each year. He played 199 games as a Penguin and scored 89 goals, which would be a 36 goal per year pace over 82 games, not 40.

Look, I hope that Kessel scores 92 goals next year. All that I am saying is do not get your EXPECTATIONS up so high that you mistake a very good performance for failure.

 

[steveg]

James Neal hit 40 goals with the Pens once. Hell ever. Every other year of his career he potted in the low to mid 20's in goals. Mostly toward the lower end of the 20 goal mark.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8471707

It is not fair to do the 'pace for' game when over his last two years because of injuries and stupidity he could only be on the ice what averages out to be 49 games a year. He was only one the ice a few more games for the Predators last year and has not come close to a full season now for three years. If you can not stay on the ice you are not going to score goals.

But let's play that game anyways however silly given his recent history of being unable to give you more than a little over half a year each year. He played 199 games as a Penguin and scored 89 goals, which would be a 36 goal per year pace over 82 games, not 40.

Look, I hope that Kessel scores 92 goals next year. All that I am saying is do not get your EXPECTATIONS up so high that you mistake a very good performance for failure.

Jaded -- again, I said initially that I generally agree with you, and the point you are making. I will not consider Kessel a "failure" if he performs very well but pots only 30 or so. I'd be very happy with that. I appreciate your point, and what you are trying to say.

However, my point stands with James Neal. You noted an actual 36 goal-per-year pace, which I called "40 per year," but let's just go with 35 for the sake of argument. My only point was that given Kessel's durability over his career, and given that he will be playing on the wing of one or the other of arguably top few centers in the world, I see no way he shouldn't be expected to score well into the 30s, if not 40, this year. If Phil Kessel can't exceed 35 goals (i.e. "James Neal level") next to Sid or Geno, then who in the world could (aside from Ovie?) For crying out loud, Chris Kunitz potted 22 in 48 games in '12-'13, and 35 in 78, in '13-'14, on Sid's wing. Do we really expect that only 25 is a "reasonable" number for Phil Kessel, next to either Sid or Geno?

(For the record, if Phil Kessel's "down year" over the next few years here, is 25 goals, I have no problem with that...but I'd be surprised if his "up year" isn't close to 40).

 

[Sam Spade]

JHowever, my point stands with James Neal. You noted an actual 36 goal-per-year pace, which I called "40 per year," but let's just go with 35 for the sake of argument. My only point was that given Kessel's durability over his career, and given that he will be playing on the wing of one or the other of arguably top few centers in the world, I see no way he shouldn't be expected to score well into the 30s, if not 40, this year. If Phil Kessel can't exceed 35 goals (i.e. "James Neal level") next to Sid or Geno, then who in the world could (aside from Ovie?) For crying out loud, Chris Kunitz potted 22 in 48 games in '12-'13, and 35 in 78, in '13-'14, on Sid's wing. Do we really expect that only 25 is a "reasonable" number for Phil Kessel, next to either Sid or Geno?

(For the record, if Phil Kessel's "down year" over the next few years here, is 25 goals, I have no problem with that...but I'd be surprised if his "up year" isn't close to 40).

If PK scores 30-35 goals I will damn sure be disappointed. I expect a 40+ season.

I think the renewed dedication to training (although I am not Roberts biggest fan) will have him come out flying this season.

 

[Don'tcry4mejanhrdina]

Weber is smart, he anticipates where the woman is going to be and looks in that direction before she's even there. That's what makes him a great defenseman.

 

[Shady Machine]

Well it would be the first time that he ever did it.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kesseph01.html

Granted, he has never played with a Crosby or Malkin, but still, people should be thrilled if he tops 30. 25 is perfectly acceptable in the current NHL where only 15 scored more than 30 last year and the leading point getter in the season had 87 points.

I suspect that Kessel will have a great year.

I also expect that at least half here will be disappointed in that year.

First because of ridiculous expectations virtually impossible to meet.

Second because Crosby and Malkin (and Jagr, Mario, and on and on) have spoiled us to what makes a great goal scorer. Most teams have not had a guy even like Kessel on their team in their memory let alone a Crosby or Malkin or Mario or Jagr in their primes. That sort of skews our ability to be rational with the expectations game.

25 would not be perfectly acceptable and I think you are downplaying 1.) How elite of a goal scorer that Kessel is and 2.) How much a sniper benefits from playing with Crosby or Malkin.

Looking at Neal's career, he is averaging 28 goals per 82 with the Stars and Preds. With the Pens, he averaged 41. Hornqvist averaged 26 per 82 with Preds, with the Pens (only 1 season I know), he averaged 32.

So it looks like a goal scorer can expect at least a 5 goal bump on their average. Kessel averages 33 per 82 in his career excluding rookie year. I'd say anything less than that average would be a disappointment and 40 isn't out of the question if you look at the examples of Neal and Hornqvist.

My guess is something around 35 goals, 40 assists.

Note: For my averages, I took each year in isolation to calculate the per 82 average. If you took the career average and adjusted it per 82, I'm sure it would look slightly different.

 

[Shockmaster]

According to the main boards Kessel sucks because he isn't a Selke candidate that plays in shutdown roles.

 

[Penguinator]

According to the main boards Kessel sucks because he isn't a Selke candidate that plays in shutdown roles.

Well tbh its more like two posters & one of them saying his D nullifies his O...

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Well it would be the first time that he ever did it.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kesseph01.html

Granted, he has never played with a Crosby or Malkin, but still, people should be thrilled if he tops 30. 25 is perfectly acceptable in the current NHL where only 15 scored more than 30 last year and the leading point getter in the season had 87 points.

I suspect that Kessel will have a great year.

I also expect that at least half here will be disappointed in that year.

First because of ridiculous expectations virtually impossible to meet.

Second because Crosby and Malkin (and Jagr, Mario, and on and on) have spoiled us to what makes a great goal scorer. Most teams have not had a guy even like Kessel on their team in their memory let alone a Crosby or Malkin or Mario or Jagr in their primes. That sort of skews our ability to be rational with the expectations game.

25 won't be an acceptable goal total from Kessel. Hornqvist scored 25 goals in 64 games last year. Kessel's a one-dimensional scorer making nearly 7 mil per...he needs to be scoring at least 35 goals per 82 here in the best situation he could ever hope for offensively.

 

[tom_servo]

Yeah, let's not set the goal so low just so we can feel good about it.

I'd really expect around 40 goals, with a few instances of coming through in the clutch. Yeah, he's never scored 40, but Neal and Hornqvist both met expected raises in production while playing in Pittsburgh.

If Kessel can't break 25 in a full season, I'm not happy. I'm in fact worried about the next six years.

 

[Mike Lange Version 2]

25 won't be an acceptable goal total from Kessel. Hornqvist scored 25 goals in 64 games last year. Kessel's a one-dimensional scorer making nearly 7 mil per...he needs to be scoring at least 35 goals per 82 here in the best situation he could ever hope for offensively.

I am expecting 35 goals and 40+ assists for 75+ points this season.

I HOPE that playing along with Crosby/Malkin will boost that significantly. I hate watching everyone in the league playing defensive hockey, so I'm hoping that duo can turn back the clock and put up 95+ points each if healthy.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Yeah, let's not set the goal so low just so we can feel good about it.

I'd really expect around 40 goals, with a few instances of coming through in the clutch. Yeah, he's never scored 40, but Neal and Hornqvist both met expected raises in production while playing in Pittsburgh.

If Kessel can't break 25 in a full season, I'm not happy. I'm in fact worried about the next six years.

I think what we need to remember is Kessel never had guys on his team that had the puck as much or more then him. He's going to lose some touches just for sake of who's on the team.

Furthermore, there is the real possibility of him taking 10 to 20 games to get used to the team and his line-mates that could change to seeing who he works with best to start off.

Allowing for that is all it is, and he could just take off from the start. I'm just not giving myself reason for pitch forks and torches.

 

[Jacob]

30 goals, 40 assists is the minimum I expect for Kessel in a full season. Less and I'd be disappointed, more and it'd be gravy. But more than that I expect whichever center he plays with to have a very good season, by their standards.

So it's not just what Kessel does individually but how he helps our centers.

 

[plaidchuck]

I.could see him having a slow start and the media already proclaiming toronto won the trade.

 

[djt153]

I.could see him having a slow start and the media already proclaiming toronto won the trade.

i think phil kessel is too good of a hockey player to have that slow a start playing with a world class center. he is at least an order of magnitude more skilled than james neal and a much better skater if we are comparing him to another winger that slumped early on in pgh.

 

[mpp9]

Kessel's main worth will be his ability to skate up and down the ice and break a game open at any time. That'll be huge in the playoffs so his goal scoring is very very important for us.

Having said that, having a guy to create some space for his center has been sorely needed.

I'm fine with less than 40 goals if he's racking up assists. I think he's easily ppg here. In some ways, he's a more natural offensive player than Sid or Geno.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

I don't know how good Kessel's passing/playmaking are, but anything short of 35 goals is going to be a disappointment. I'm hoping for around 40, assuming the PP is in high gear all season long. I'd also really like to see Sid or Geno (whomever gets Kessel) shooting more now that they have a legitimate threat on their line to open up lanes and take defenders.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

Looking at their history with the PP and Tocchet it won't be in high gear all season. Kessel will also probably get injured at some point.

 

[mikethelegacy]

Well tbh its more like two posters & one of them saying his D nullifies his O...

Some people are unbelievable. Not every player on a line has to be a two way player. If the top lines ends up being Duper - Sid - Kessel, which I feel there is a good possibility of, that's one defensive-minded guy, a two way guy and a scorer. It's called balance.

 

[Zen Arcade]

I.could see him having a slow start and the media already proclaiming toronto won the trade.

I could see Kapanen scoring in his first preseason game while Kessel being centered by Dea goes scoreless and some Leafs fan making a thread about how they won the trade.

 

[Penguinator]

Kessel has scored at least 32 goals in five of his past seven seasons. One would wonder why the **** wouldn't he score 40 alongside Crosby &/or Malkin.

Sure he only scored 25 last season but we're talking about a fed-up player on a ****** team.

A new start in a new world for The Phil. 41 goals, book it.

 

[Zen Arcade]

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