The All Purpose Pens Off Day Thread - Injuries, Practice, Lines, etc (Geno, the true American Hero)

[JackFr]

JackFr, thanks for that. Where do you get your stats btw?

Corsica.hockey

 

[deathtouchtrample]

Marino was like 62.5% after the 7D game then immediate sank to like 44 ish after his first game with JJ. Probably best to wait til about 10 games to see if it levels out or not.

Also evolving wild had a Twitter's thread last night where he found out the nhl has changed irs tracking procedures for shot length and everyone's xG numbers are wonky so idk how much stock to place on them right now.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Has anyone suggested trading JJ?

Buddy, Jeff Jimmerson ain't going nowheres.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Well, look who Marino is paired with.

It's almost like JJ drags down every player he's on the ice with

Weird

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Well, good to know.

 

[ColePens]

Marino gets the ugly and people look at these analytics and say... "Yep.. matches up with what i'm seeing!"

 

[HandshakeLine]

Well, good to know.

Who the f*** is he?

 

[Slaaapshuter]

there not really wrong though. faceoffs are one of the most overrated skillsets. Once in a blue moon they actually make a difference

Maybe on player level, but not on team level. That would be the same as saying that gaining possession doesn't matter.
How big or little impact they have can be discussed, but they do matter. 52-48 won't make a difference, but starting every shift spending energy chasing the puck is worse than not having to do it.

As a defender, having a C losing every faceoff is f***ing demoralising.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Maybe on player level, but not on team level. That would be the same as saying that gaining possession doesn't matter.
How big or little impact they have can be discussed, but they do matter. 52-48 won't make a difference, but starting every shift spending energy chasing the puck is worse than not having to do it.

As a defender, having a C losing every faceoff is ****ing demoralising.

Fact is they dont correlate. A single isolated faceoff might have an impact but over the course of a season the normal range of variances doesnt move the needle in any significant way.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Just as a friendly reminder, Daley was a negative CF% and xGF% player in 2015-2016 for the Penguins, despite being a #2D anchor that was a huge part of their return to form. It's obviously not good if a player is being caved analytically, but analytics aren't the only factor here.

 

[Fordy]

Agreed, he's been doing a lot of things well (gap control, puck battles) but fact of the matter is his pairings been overall not controlling the flow of play well at all.

I'd like to see him get a chance with someone who isn't JJ or Gud to get a sense for if he's been weighed down.

... if?

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Who the **** is he?

The duck calling Steelers' starting Quarterback this past week.

By way of explanation I believe that he is from Nashville.

 

[pokey10]

The duck calling Steelers' starting Quarterback this past week.

By way of explanation I believe that he is from Nashville.

Alabama

 

[JackFr]

Marino was like 62.5% after the 7D game then immediate sank to like 44 ish after his first game with JJ. Probably best to wait til about 10 games to see if it levels out or not.

Also evolving wild had a Twitter's thread last night where he found out the nhl has changed irs tracking procedures for shot length and everyone's xG numbers are wonky so idk how much stock to place on them right now.

I agree, I just found it interesting. I expect that if he starts playing with someone else he'll rise back up. And the xGF numbers are wonky but they are wonky on both sides so I think it evens out. The main issue is that xGF will be less than actual GF.

Just as a friendly reminder, Daley was a negative CF% and xGF% player in 2015-2016 for the Penguins, despite being a #2D anchor that was a huge part of their return to form. It's obviously not good if a player is being caved analytically, but analytics aren't the only factor here.

That's true, although I think a big reason that he was important was that his pairing played mostly with a line that was most dangerous off the rush - HBK. His skillset, which was breaking out the puck on the rush and speed joining the rush, fit our new scheme and his linemates very well. Once we get a better sample of Marino, if his numbers don't rise up to even there'll have to be a similarly contextual explanation for how he's doing.

 

[Andy99]

The other one that stands out compared to how he's been described on here is ZAR (who I personally think has been fine but many want as far from this team as possible).

Honestly,I think this board tends to oberfocus their ire on players who a.) Don't have a very noticeable skill and b.) Don't score goals. Posters really like guys who look fast or hard on the forecheck or have killer shots. That's why your McCanns and Tanevs will get huge props - we see McCann score goals and Tanev skate quick. Guys like Simon and Bjug and ZAR are tagged as "vanilla" because they don't have that notable attribute.

Driving play is a such a macrolevel thing and it's obviously something your brain can't count from the eye test (Tanev hits? Yes. Scoring chances when Simon is with Crosby compared to Rust? No). As a result guys like 66-30-33 who trust the infallibility of their eyeballs are going to single out those players because they're not "doing anything" - even though even that is often not the case and the thing they're doing is keeping possession alive in the other teams end.

I don’t think analytics properly capture a player’s impact on a play, good or bad...I can watch the game and see, particularly later with video, which players had a substantive impact on a play 5-on-5 that helped or hurt the team...when I watch ZAR I see a player more times than not who doesn’t have an impact on a play during his shift or has more of a negative impact than for the positive plays he makes...for example, he’s often late to plays and fails to win board battles...I don’t care whether he has a positive impact on shot volume or possession stats...the game isn’t about who wins the Corsi battle...it has its uses but it’s limited...ZAR has some positive impact plays but many more no impact or negative impact plays so he’s not a + to me when looking at who really positively impacts plays

 

[Empoleon8771]

That's true, although I think a big reason that he was important was that his pairing played mostly with a line that was most dangerous off the rush - HBK. His skillset, which was breaking out the puck on the rush and speed joining the rush, fit our new scheme and his linemates very well. Once we get a better sample of Marino, if his numbers don't rise up to even there'll have to be a similarly contextual explanation for how he's doing.

Yeah, if Marino's numbers are still horrendous in 20 games, then there is a reason for concern, but I honestly don't care if he's a slightly negative when it comes to analytics for the same reason I didn't care that Daley was a slight negative when it came to analytics.

Speaking on analytics, I also don't think JJ or McCann have been as bad analytically as you said. Both have been bad defensively, but all of them are among the best on the Penguins in terms of shot suppression and goal suppression. These guys aren't pushing offense at all, but they're all significantly positive players defensively in terms of all of CA, SA, GA and xGA. If McCann can put up 20 goals and 35 points with his defensive metrics, you take that every day of the week IMO.

To add, I don't think it's fair to put JJ in the same group as Gudbranson, he's been much better than Gudbranson both by the eye test and analytically. Johnson's playing like a stereotypical shutdown defenseman that offers no offense, Gudbranson is just playing like a bad defenseman.

 

[Gurglesons]

Marino gets the ugly and people look at these analytics and say... "Yep.. matches up with what i'm seeing!"

They are on ice numbers. As JackFR pointed out his pairing is bringing him down. Anyone can tell that when we watch the game.

Take the emotion out of judging players..

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Yes but JJ is simply not a fit for this team. Especially on a west coast team he could be a first pairing defenseman.

We need to keep pushing this narrative in hopes they hit catches on and some GM out west gets the idea.

 

[Andy99]

The problem with JJ for other GMs is less about his suckitude on the ice and more about the nearly 4 years left on his contract...

 

[JackFr]

I don’t think analytics properly capture a player’s impact on a play, good or bad...I can watch the game and see, particularly later with video, which players had a substantive impact on a play 5-on-5 that helped or hurt the team...when I watch ZAR I see a player more times than not who doesn’t have an impact on a play during his shift or has more of a negative impact than for the positive plays he makes...for example, he’s often late to plays and fails to win board battles...I don’t care whether he has a positive impact on shot volume or possession stats...the game isn’t about who wins the Corsi battle...it has its uses but it’s limited...ZAR has some positive impact plays but many more no impact or negative impact plays so he’s not a + to me when looking at who really positively impacts plays

I think the introduction of shot quality into possession metrics has improved analytics a lot - it's not just about shot volume anymore. Sure, the difference between a 49% player and a 50% might be overstated. But ZAR's numbers have been so eyepopping and so much better than anyone he's playing with that I have to imagine there's something going on.

I really don't trust my own eyes or the eyes of people on here to fully filter out the noise of confirmation bias especially. ZAR has been a whipping boy on here for a while so his mistakes (flubbed pucks especially) really stand out to people. It's the same thing as with Simon - I watch Simon and see him keeping plays alive, winning puck battles, and making the right plays to create space, time, and chances for Crosby and Guentzel. Lots of people watch him and see him not putting the puck in the net and skating slowly and interpret that he's holding the top line back.

The game isn't about who wins the "Corsi battle" but it's reductive to pretend that controlling the puck and getting the majority scoring chances doesn't matter in a game where the outcome is as random as hockey. Considering how much finishing talent our roster has, filling our ranks with guys who keep the puck in the opponents' end as much as possible is a good thing.

 

[Andy99]

I think the introduction of shot quality into possession metrics has improved analytics a lot - it's not just about shot volume anymore. Sure, the difference between a 49% player and a 50% might be overstated. But ZAR's numbers have been so eyepopping and so much better than anyone he's playing with that I have to imagine there's something going on.

I really don't trust my own eyes or the eyes of people on here to fully filter out the noise of confirmation bias especially. ZAR has been a whipping boy on here for a while so his mistakes (flubbed pucks especially) really stand out to people. It's the same thing as with Simon - I watch Simon and see him keeping plays alive, winning puck battles, and making the right plays to create space, time, and chances for Crosby and Guentzel. Lots of people watch him and see him not putting the puck in the net and skating slowly and interpret that he's holding the top line back.

The game isn't about who wins the "Corsi battle" but it's reductive to pretend that controlling the puck and getting the majority scoring chances doesn't matter in a game where the outcome is as random as hockey. Considering how much finishing talent our roster has, filling our ranks with guys who keep the puck in the opponents' end as much as possible is a good thing.

Simon, I see what he does even if he isn’t scoring...I’m not a hater...ZAR is the opposite in a lot of ways...I don’t see what he’s doing to generate the good analytics...likewise Horny has been generating points but the analytics aren’t good (opposite of last year)...that’s why I think analytics can’t really capture well individual player impact on scoring or preventing goals...I think it’s better capturing line or 5 man units...the fact that ZAR is better analytically than his line mates doesn’t really say much in the scope of what he’s doing...also the third man on his line has been moved around...now Tanev...the only constant has been Blueger, who’s been mediocre so far this season

 

[JackFr]

Simon, I see what he does even if he isn’t scoring...I’m not a hater...ZAR is the opposite in a lot of ways...I don’t see what he’s doing to generate the good analytics...likewise Horny has been generating points but the analytics aren’t good (opposite of last year)...that’s why I think analytics can’t really capture well individual player impact on scoring or preventing goals...I think it’s better capturing line or 5 man units...the fact that ZAR is better analytically than his line mates doesn’t really say much in the scope of what he’s doing...also the third man on his line has been moved around...now Tanev...the only constant has been Blueger, who’s been mediocre so far this season

I agree that I was very surprised about ZAR's numbers. I'm definitely going to keep it in mind when watching his shifts to try to figure out what the hell is going on. But ZAR's isolated numbers have always been strong, this isn't just a bizarre outlier.

Our weird lineup is throwing a lot of things off, and I imagine that Hornqvist has been negatively affected by it - and I hope that Marino has as well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think ZAR is normally very good defensively, so him having good defensive metrics wouldn't be surprising. He's a very high hockey IQ player, he's always making the easy and smart plays in the defensive zone that he doesn't get credit for. Him having strong offensive metrics is the surprising part.

Simon is the opposite way IMO, where you can see the small plays that causes him to have good offensive metrics, but him having strong defensive metrics is surprising. You can see plays he makes that lead to chances, that Guentzel goal against Anaheim is a great example of that, but his defensive metrics are harder to explain.

 

[EightyOne]

between the two...I would rather have a player like Aston-Reese than one like Simon..on this team..right now.

That'd change if we lost other..."talented"...offensive forwards.

 

[Andy99]

Ruh roh