Pre-Game Talk: The All Purpose Off Day Thread - Panic Time!

[Peat]

.... and Jesse came down from the mountain asking loaded questions, and there was much checking of advanced stats, afterthought and re-calibration of opinions .

I must admit I was surprised when checking the numbers (corsica), but he basically has been passing the eye-test for me, more so against Vegas and in Montreal than against Vancouver and Toronto, but I generally have seen him as the better performing/more effective player on his pairing.

Worth tracking though, for sure. Btw. where do you guys check the stats for individual games these days?

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Tender Rip]

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Xièxie!

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I dont think anyone thought much at first.

But then I think we all heightened our expectations after a good preseason.

Now that the season has started and things are tightening up, hes came back down to earth.

But he still shows potential, his skating is phenomenal, he has a good shot, etc.
He definitely earned the right to stay in the lineup.

He has ripped a few clappers narrowly over the bar top corner to start the year. If he keeps it down, he might have a goal or 2 by now, and people would be talking differently. It's a game of inches
He's outplaying Oleksiak and Maatta to this point. I can't ask for more than that. I'm excited for his future.

 

[Jesse]

Well.... Partly because he is a nice new toy, but as Peat mentioned, he does show traits we like to see out of a defender. He also deserves time being the new toy. We can't help there are a lot of guys committing their fair share, including him. He's trying to earn a permanent spot, trying to impress. He is handling it well enough. He's not hurting them just yet. He's getting shelled because he is the new toy. Teams are going at him and him likewise.

He also has only been in 3 NHL regular season games.He's been good and bad, a breath of fresh air we hope will carve out a NHL career here.

Question is: With his toolbag, how can anyone put him behind Oleksiak?

Does Oleksiak have the potential to be a top 2 pairing D-man?

Maybe, with the right partner ala, Cole/Schultz.

I hope it clears the air a little, Jesse.

I'm not washing away the rest I saw because he's having a little trouble to start. There's plenty of that going around, and teams are taking advantage of it all. Teams are catching up, and the Pens could use more Riikola's if they end up being close to potential.

Good stuff here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think you can judge the defense based on their advanced stats, when the entire team has been getting caved in possession. Last night is a good example, all of the bottom-4 defensemen had strong games overall (JJ and Oleksiak had the strongest), but all were below a 40% CF%. In that case, I honestly felt like it was just the Leafs throwing everything towards the net more than the defensemen doing poorly.

You obviously don't want to see the trend of their advanced stats continue, but I don't think they're an accurate representation for how they've played. Maatta has been probably their worst defenseman on the year and his advanced stats are some of the best. Riikola has been one of their best defensemen on the year and his advanced stats are some of the worst. In such a small sample size, you can't judge them solely on their advanced stats.

Along with that, I blame the forwards more than anything on the struggles of the defense in terms of possession stats. The 3rd line especially has a lot of blame IMO.

 

[vodeni]

I can't figure out what it is about Riikola that make people ignore the fact that the Penguins are downright hemorrhaging shots and chances against with him on the ice.

I don't know how, at this juncture, we can put Oleksiak behind Riikola. Riikola hasn't even played 5 NHL games and he's gotten shelled in every regular season performance.

Is it just because he's the newest, shiniest toy? Can someone help me grasp this?

OK @Jesse, here we go: We are on your turf here, I am just helping
This is a breakdown of Riikola's play with each center and d-man:

No surprise when with Brassard and Sheahan he looks bad, with Sheahan he is excusively deployed in d-zone, with Brassard it was predominantly offensive zone starts but they got pinned down nevertheless (that tells you how well Brassard plays)
Decent numbers with Sid and Geno, but these are mostly offensive zone starts

His best pairing is with JJ although they have 65% offensive zone starts, his worst is with Maatta, and not so bad with Oleks considering 7% d-zone starts

Overall: I don't see hemoraging shots and chances, just slightly below the team average at this point snd its mostly due to Brassard's and Sheahan's line bad play (except last night for Sheahan)
His numbers are better than Maata's and JJ's just about the same as Oleksiak (Maatta's Cf is 39.3, JJ's 40.9, shots are 42 Maatta, 43.4 JJ;s

I think he will be fine, eye test shows some smart plays and occasional burps...

Player	TOI	CF%	SF%	GF%	SCF%	HDSCF%	FO%
Brassard	18.13	37.5	39.13	-	38.1	25 (19.9A/60)	60
Sid-Jake	14	52.17	35.7	-	60	50	66.7
Geno - Phil	19.1	50.85	62.5	100 (1GF)	50	60	90.9
Sheahan	10:34	29.63	27.27	-	50	33.3	0 (73.7DZ/60)
Jack Johnson	30:10	48.05	52.78	0 (2/60 GA)	56.25	50	65
Maatta	12:18	20.83 (92.68A/60)	30.77	100 (1GF)	25	66.7	33.3
Letang	5.28	14.29	22.2	-	14.3	25	0
Dumo	3;49	14.3	20	--	-	-	33
Oleksiak	16:53	46.15	42.9	-	50	25	7.7
Overall	64:27	46.15	42.9	0 (1F/1A)	44.8	44.4	40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Pancakes]

I don't think you can judge the defense based on their advanced stats, when the entire team has been getting caved in possession. Last night is a good example, all of the bottom-4 defensemen had strong games overall (JJ and Oleksiak had the strongest), but all were below a 40% CF%. In that case, I honestly felt like it was just the Leafs throwing everything towards the net more than the defensemen doing poorly.

You obviously don't want to see the trend of their advanced stats continue, but I don't think they're an accurate representation for how they've played. Maatta has been probably their worst defenseman on the year and his advanced stats are some of the best. Riikola has been one of their best defensemen on the year and his advanced stats are some of the worst. In such a small sample size, you can't judge them solely on their advanced stats.

Along with that, I blame the forwards more than anything on the struggles of the defense in terms of possession stats. The 3rd line especially has a lot of blame IMO.

Riikola has had two good games and two bad games imo.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It’s okay, I get your bit. Everything is greener. Funny, how Sprong was still a disaster last night despite playing with Brassard and that Simon - Brassard - Sprong got caved in possession wise as has been common place this season for any line Sprong is on.

Moved to Off-Day thread.

Changing perspective and admitting fault when wrong is my bit, I guess. There are worse bits to have.

As for Sprong, getting a shot with Brass is a good start and if he starts getting decent minutes where he's not buried in the d-zone, you'll see some results. Micro-analyzing possession stats after his first game with Brass while getting 8 minutes TOI and starting in his own end for the overwhelming majority of those minutes can be your bag, which as I've shown has no precedent for success with scoring prospects.

Worth mentioning though that in spite of his deployment, Sprong is 5th among our forwards in scoring and has as many points as Brassard, Hornqvist, and Rust combined. If you expect more, I'm still eagerly awaiting that single example that's proven so hard for you to produce.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Moved to Off-Day thread.

Changing perspective and admitting fault when wrong is my bit, I guess. There are worse bits to have.

As for Sprong, getting a shot with Brass is a good start and if he starts getting decent minutes where he's not buried in the d-zone, you'll see some results. Micro-analyzing possession stats after his first game with Brass while getting 8 minutes TOI and starting in his own end for the overwhelming majority of those minutes can be your bag, which as I've shown has no precedent for success with scoring prospects.

Worth mentioning though that in spite of his deployment, Sprong is 5th among our forwards in scoring and has as many points as Brassard, Hornqvist, and Rust combined. If you expect more, I'm still eagerly awaiting that single example that's proven so hard for you to produce.

He was 50/50 in zone starts.

 

[Gurglesons]

Moved to Off-Day thread.

Changing perspective and admitting fault when wrong is my bit, I guess. There are worse bits to have.

As for Sprong, getting a shot with Brass is a good start and if he starts getting decent minutes where he's not buried in the d-zone, you'll see some results. Micro-analyzing possession stats after his first game with Brass while getting 8 minutes TOI and starting in his own end for the overwhelming majority of those minutes can be your bag, which as I've shown has no precedent for success with scoring prospects.

Worth mentioning though that in spite of his deployment, Sprong is 5th among our forwards in scoring and has as many points as Brassard, Hornqvist, and Rust combined. If you expect more, I'm still eagerly awaiting that single example that's proven so hard for you to produce.

I’m sure we will see Sprong’s numbers even out as the season progresses if he continues to play the uninspired hockey he has so far to start the year.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

He was 50/50 in zone starts.

Where do you find those numbers after the fact?

I use Natural Stat Trick on the day of but don't know otherwise.

I’m sure we will see Sprong’s numbers even out as the season progresses if he continues to play the uninspired hockey he has so far to start the year.

If he's playing 8 minutes a night, you probably shouldn't expect him to do anything more than every other scoring line prospect getting 8 minutes a night, even though his numbers have exceeded that to this point.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I really like Sprong, guys...

But he's a total pile of shit and people are stupid for speaking well of him.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Where do you find those numbers after the fact?

I use Natural Stat Trick on the day of but don't know otherwise.

On hockey reference in the game stats. Scroll down to the advanced stats. Check out Matthews advanced stats to bring a smile to you face

Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Box Score — October 18, 2018 | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[ColePens]

Was randomly on the Pens website looking at the calendar and they stole some of our HF talk. Headline: Pens neutral zone is the key to everything." Hey.. if you are going to steal some of my material, pay the man. Nonetheless - good read.

Pens' neutral zone is key to everything

 

[ColePens]

And my favorite line:

"If we play smart and we play right we'll beat any team in the league," said Evgeni Malkin

 

[Tom Hanks]

And my favorite line:

"If we play smart and we play right we'll beat any team in the league," said Evgeni Malkin

Yeah you can tell they know it too. Sully just has to keep them grounded and focused. He does it better than anyone I’ve seen for this team.

 

[Andy99]

Was randomly on the Pens website looking at the calendar and they stole some of our HF talk. Headline: Pens neutral zone is the key to everything." Hey.. if you are going to steal some of my material, pay the man. Nonetheless - good read.

Pens' neutral zone is key to everything

I also like how we were talking here about how they needed to tweak the system and start playing less aggressively because other teams had caught up to their speed...and here’s the article saying they laid back more in the NZ...love it...you could tell they altered a few things last night...

 

[ColePens]

What is the stat that stands out to you this year so far?

- Geno 58.23% faceoff
- Sid 0 goals
- Kessel/Letang both have 4g/4a for 8 pts. Letang has 25 shots to Kessel's 14.....
- Horny/Brassard have 1 point.
- Maatta 0g/0a -2 and 3 total shots. in 5 games. Yeesh
- Daniel Sprong, the shooter, 3 total shots

 

[Tom Hanks]

What is the stat that stands out to you this year so far?

- Geno 58.23% faceoff
- Sid 0 goals
- Kessel/Letang both have 4g/4a for 8 pts. Letang has 25 shots to Kessel's 14.....
- Horny/Brassard have 1 point.
- Maatta 0g/0a -2 and 3 total shots. in 5 games. Yeesh
- Daniel Sprong, the shooter, 3 total shots

Add Letang’s 18.2% shooting percentage!

Jack Johnson has 25 hits in 6 games. He had 101 hits in 77 games last year

 

[mpp9]

Letang so far this season is a big time game changer. Like, if this continues and Dumoulin builds off of last game and puts injury behind him, that pairing can more than make up for a bunch of 4/5's on the defense behind them.

Sid always starts slow.

Brassard wasn't great last year either.

Although I will say if Malkin starts focusing more on faceoffs, that's definitely a good sign as to how his game will evolve positively in his 30s.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

What is the stat that stands out to you this year so far?

- Geno 58.23% faceoff
- Sid 0 goals
- Kessel/Letang both have 4g/4a for 8 pts. Letang has 25 shots to Kessel's 14.....
- Horny/Brassard have 1 point.
- Maatta 0g/0a -2 and 3 total shots. in 5 games. Yeesh
- Daniel Sprong, the shooter, 3 total shots

Most shocking?

Sprong with minimal TOI is tied in points with Hörnqvist, Rust, Brasaard and Cullen... all combined those four have three...

 

[mpp9]

Most shocking?

Sprong with minimal TOI is tied in points with Hörnqvist, Rust, Brasaard and Cullen... all combined...

Haha. Yeah I think you win on that one.

 

[ColePens]

Most shocking?

Sprong with minimal TOI is tied in points with Hörnqvist, Rust, Brasaard and Cullen... all combined those four have three...

I poorly worded that. Basically just what stat catches you off guard or what stat you feel should be a talking point.

 

[Gurglesons]

I poorly worded that. Basically just what stat catches you off guard or what stat you feel should be a talking point.

Should be obvious. Sid without a goal.

 

[Gurglesons]

Most shocking?

Sprong with minimal TOI is tied in points with Hörnqvist, Rust, Brasaard and Cullen... all combined those four have three...

Let’s be honest, Sprong’s usage is frustrating but Brassard and Hornqvist is just as if more asisine.